PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

kwinigolfer wrote:Let's hope he keeps up the good work, Mac; but his form on par-5's is horrendous, especially here.

Very solid start by Paul Lawrie.

-8 for the Par 5's over the week and you should be well set up...............

Is it too early to get excited??

Kaymer, E and Harrington, -1 have just dropped shots.

Impressive start for the young Japanese amateur Matsuyama, a birdie at the very tough 1st hole, the only one so far to do that... A guy who I tend to believe will be better than Ishikawa not so far in the future...

i think clark also birdied the first.

edit - he didnt! your right- tough hole that frirst one today

starnge scenario going in the betting between mickleson and donald.

start of the week donald was 17 pts and micleson 12 pts.

at present(neither has teed off) donald 14 and mickleson 13.5!

probally will come in at joint 3rd favs by tee off!

alot of late money on donald and alot of people satying away from pmick

Adam Scott +3 through 6 now, not the best start for someone I'd high hopes for this week. Still, 66 holes to recover....

no, clark birdied the 2nd (par 5).

In case you didn't see it, you can watch some small video clips with some of the best shots (links via the masters.com leaderbord). Just watched Harri's eagle at the 2nd...brilliant second shot to ~8-9 feet or so...

paddy power have pmick at 10/1 and donald 12/1. ladbrookes have both at 12/1.

very glad i got donald at 22/1

wow donald down to 13 pmick staying at 13.5- there are thousands going on donald late!! maybe its the fact that the course is playing tough!!

Scoring not too hectic so far eh? Strongish winds predicted for tomorrow

Even early on the cream is starting to rise. harrington,cink and kaymer up there

Not sure Harrington and Cink really count as the cream mysti, must be two of the lower ranked players here! Looks like Kaymer completely rebuilding his swing solely for this course may be working...

NedB-H wrote:Not sure Harrington and Cink really count as the cream mysti, must be two of the lower ranked players here! Looks like Kaymer completely rebuilding his swing solely for this course may be working...

i meant cream out of who had gone out (major winners tis all)

there are not close to form players mind- however they have abit of pedegree

donald bogeyed the first !! doh

Someone must have reminded Adam Scott you can't win it on Thursday, you can only lose it.
Nice eagle on the 8th, makes up for half his bogeys!

The genius of Woods, hooking into the, well, woods, and still making par on the first.

how do you know he hooked it in the woods- have you got live coverage?

Sounds like a penalty shot for Tiger in the jungle on 32, probably still make par.

Woods in the woods again...

On 32 Kwini?

BBC guys are tweeting where Tiger is hitting the ball. Penalty drop way left on 2 after hitting it somewhere Andrew Cotter has never seen anyone ever been.

If they could just finish the tournment now please. Two guys I put on are leading thanks.

Sand wrote:On 32 Kwini?

BBC guys are tweeting where Tiger is hitting the ball. Penalty drop way left on 2 after hitting it somewhere Andrew Cotter has never seen anyone ever been.

If they could just finish the tournment now please. Two guys I put on are leading thanks.

cheers lol

masive hook on the first - followd by even more massive hook on the second!!

mysti,
I have a couple of live blogs open, USAToday described his tee shots thus:
#1: "Woods's first tee shot is jacked left of the fairway."

#2: "Woods is having trouble with his driver. He has had back-to-back jacked shots. He went way left on #1 (but) he put it further left on #2." "Bad enough to require a drop." (Par"!)

O'Meara withdrawn. Not his personality you understand, just from The Masters.

Woods has only ever broken 70 once on a Masters Thursday. Anyone know the year?

kwinigolfer wrote:mysti,
I have a couple of live blogs open, USAToday described his tee shots thus:
#1: "Woods's first tee shot is jacked left of the fairway."

#2: "Woods is having trouble with his driver. He has had back-to-back jacked shots. He went way left on #1 (but) he put it further left on #2." "Bad enough to require a drop." (Par"!)

O'Meara withdrawn. Not his personality you understand, just from The Masters.

Padraig -3 on the par 5s and counting, what's going on?

so woods with two hooks- a pen shot and he is level after 2

Tiger's first hole you can watch it shot by shot via the video clip link that I mentioned earlier...

Backed Stenson for a third time in a row this week and glad to see him having a good start... A birdie at the 2nd par 5 for Paddy, -3 at the two par 5s now!!!

Is Padraig playing well or getting lucky?!

NedB-H wrote:Padraig -3 on the par 5s and counting, what's going on?

No water yet...

NedB-H wrote:Woods has only ever broken 70 once on a Masters Thursday. Anyone know the year?

Last year ?

5 of the top 7 Europeans, excellent. And Kaymer the first man to reach the turn under par. Nice birdie at the second for Luke after the bogey first too.

NedB-H wrote:Woods has only ever broken 70 once on a Masters Thursday. Anyone know the year?

2010?

rose going along ubber smooth- only player in the field to par his first 6 holes

LastDamnation wrote:

NedB-H wrote:Woods has only ever broken 70 once on a Masters Thursday. Anyone know the year?

2010?

Yup, a 68 in 2010.

Birdie at the 3rd today after scrambling two pars, typical Woods...

boring woods lol!!

he must feel abit invicible at present- 3rd is playing tough as well

Were the tee offs delayed..

donlad teed of over an hour ago and hasnt even finished the 3rd yet-- now that is a 6 hour plus round!!!

Paul Lawrie! Eagle!!

Opening 3-some rattling along. Four hours on the course and already playing the 17th; two holes ahead of their pursuers! Better than some Houston twosomes.

Bit more trivia courtesy of the Question of Sport twitter feed... name the five Americans to have lost a Masters playoff since 1990. I have 4 straight up, struggling for No. 5...

s hoch and raymond flloyd, maybe another couple in there as well courtesy of faldo , not sure who they were

also one when cabrerra won in 2009

Ah Floyd would be the one I was missing, was thinking him and Hoch were both 80s but they were 89/90.

Clue is that the other four are more recent... and Cabrera took care of two...

NedB-H wrote:Ah Floyd would be the one I was missing, was thinking him and Hoch were both 80s but they were 89/90.

Clue is that the other four are more recent... and Cabrera took care of two...

Chad Campbell/Kenny Perry
Dimarco
no idea on other

Great to see Lawrie up there.
I said earlier in the year that he was geared up for a Ryder Cup spot just to stuff DL3's Carnoustie quote down his big mouth.

LastDamnation wrote:

NedB-H wrote:Ah Floyd would be the one I was missing, was thinking him and Hoch were both 80s but they were 89/90.

Clue is that the other four are more recent... and Cabrera took care of two...

Chad Campbell/Kenny Perry
Dimarco
no idea on other

Any takers on No. 5, something of a forgotten man of American golf?

Oh, Mattiace lost to Mike Weir?

LastDamnation wrote:Oh, Mattiace lost to Mike Weir?

very good!

Only remembered cos I was looking up Mike Weir the other day - before that I thought it was Jeff Maggert he beat :P

How can you all of forgetten poor Mattice and his weeping in the media tent?

Just caught this!
And Len Mattiace is teeing it up in the Nationwide event today in California. Wonder where he'd prefer to be? Just another pro who never really recovered from a long term injury - in this case skiing I think.

But that's history.
Paul Lawrie with his SECOND EAGLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another eagle from lawrie, i wonder if the yanks realise this is the same guy that won a major??