Super XV Round 7 Preview and Live match thread

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

The 2012 Super XV has now played 6 rounds, and already some trends are evident. Defences have tightened up, with few 4-try bonus points being scored. Matches are proving close, with almost 70% of matches decided by 7 points or less. The injury rate has been horrendous, especially in the backs. The Lions, Reds, Blues, Highlanders and Rebels have all been hard-hit by injuries to key players.

As in 2011 the Australian franchise appears to be the “easiest”. Thus far no Australian team has won outside of Australia in 6 matches, while in 6 home matches against non-Australian sides the score is 3-3. By contrast against foreign opposition the New Zealand franchises have won 5 out of 6 at home, and 4 out of 7 away while the South African franchises have 4 out of 7 at home and 3 out of 6 away.

Here is Pete Cresswell’s take on the Easter matches:

Points Table
Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Brumbies	5	3	2	0	1	124	124	0	2	18
2	Reds	6	3	3	0	0	120	180	-60	1	13
3	Waratahs	6	2	4	0	0	140	143	-3	5	13
4	Western Force	6	2	4	0	0	151	169	-18	4	12
5	Rebels	5	1	4	0	1	93	151	-58	2	10

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Highlanders	6	5	1	0	0	156	122	34	2	22
2	Chiefs	5	4	1	0	1	131	91	40	2	22
3	Crusaders	5	3	2	0	1	113	103	10	2	18
4	Hurricanes	6	3	3	0	0	183	177	6	4	16
5	Blues	5	1	4	0	1	103	124	-21	2	10

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stormers	5	5	0	0	1	125	91	34	0	24
2	Bulls	5	3	2	0	1	170	89	81	4	20
3	Sharks	6	3	3	0	0	143	135	8	5	17
4	Cheetahs	6	2	4	0	0	168	194	-26	4	12
5	Lions	5	1	4	0	1	107	134	-27	2	10

Matches:

Rebels vs Blues
The weekend opens with the battle of the cellar-dwellers. The Blues have had a bye week to lick their wounds and will be looking to try and resurrect a season that should have seen them excelling given their off-season recruitment. The Rebels have a stellar backline when all are fit, but Cipriani, O’Connor, Beale and co simply have not had enough ball to work with.

Piri Weepu is relegated to the bench after starting at first five-eighth last time out for the Blues, with Pat Lam preferring Alby Mathewson and Gareth Anscombe in the halves. Rene Ranger returns from suspension on the wing and Keven Mealamu from injury to bolster the side, while Rudi Wulf and Lachie Munro swap positions at wing/fullback. The long term injury news is bleaker though, with Isaia Toeva opting for season-ending surgery on a hip and Anthony Boric’s neck ruling him out until at least the end of May. The Saili brothers (Peter and Francis) have been stood down for two weeks due to a breach of team protocol in South Africa so flanker Dan Pryor comes onto the bench from the Blues’ Wider Training Group.

For the Rebels former Blues flanker Tom Chamberlain has been ruled out of Thursday’s match with concussion, and he is replaced by English import Michael Lipton who has been out with a back injury. In the backs Danny Cipriani and Laclan Mitchell return to the side from injury, while ex-Auckland Warrior Cooper Vuna misses a return “home” due to suspension. James O’Connor moves out to 12 to accommodate Cipriani.

The Blues’ pack have the class to win this one, despite their woeful run of form. Blues by 12.


Hurricanes vs Sharks
We go from 15th vs 14th to a true mid-table match this week with the 8th placed Hurricanes hosting the 7th placed Sharks on Good Friday in New Plymouth, with the winner having a chance to move into the all-important top 6. The Hurricanes have exceeded expectations so far this season, with Mark Hammett instilling a team ethos after shedding a number of stars from last season. On the other hand the Sharks had recruited well and were expected to give the Stormers and Bulls a real challenge in the South African conference. Good Friday is traditionally a “dry” day in New Zealand (most shops and all pubs are shut, similar to Easter Sunday in the UK) so if the stadium has secured a “special event” liquor license may have the only beer in Taranaki.

Victor Vito is out of the match with a calf strain so Jack Lam returns to the starting lineup with Faifili Levave moving to 8. Jason Eaton earns a start, one of five Taranaki players in the starting fifteen. Tim Bateman starts at 12 after a rest last week.

The Sharks have been forced into two changes to the team who won in Canberra last week. Bismark du Plessis starts on the bench after passing a late fitness test following a quadricep strain in training, with Craig Burden earning his first Sharks start. Louis Ludik starts on the wing in place of Odwa Ndungane who is returning to South Africa due to a groin strain. Last week’s late withdrawal Patrick Lambie is still unavailable, so Frenchman Frederic Michalak retains the 10 jersey.

The bookmakers like the Sharks this week, and so do I. Sharks by 5.


Reds vs Brumbies
The injury-stricken Reds return to Brisbane after their “road trip from hell”, conceding 133 points in 3 matches this week to face a Brumbies side stung by a narrow home loss to the Sharks. This match sees the top two sides in the Australian conference play off.

The Reds have not yet named a side for the match, though it is likely that 4th choice fly-half Dallan Murphy will start again.

The Brumbies have their own injury worries with fly-half Matt Toomua ruled out for the season, meaning that Christian Lealiifano and Pat McCabe move in to play 10 and 12. Nic White starts at half back after scoring late against the Sharks to secure a bonus point. The Brumbies are still lacking “names”, with a large chunk of their squad having moved from Queensland in search of game time.

Home advantage decides this one for me, Red by 6.


Western Force vs Chiefs
The Chiefs stop off in Perth on the way to South Africa to face a Force team buoyed by their win over the defending champions last week. The Chiefs are having their best start to the season in years, sitting comfortably in a playoff spot, but have a tough three weeks of touring ahead.

The Force are yet to name a team for the match. They have signed ex-Brumbies and Waratahs scrum half Josh Holmes from Bourgoin for the rest of the season to replace the injured Justin Turner. Inspirational skipper David Pocock will be the key man for them again.

The Chiefs are almost at full strength as they hit the road. Leila Masaga and Mahroni Schwalger return to the starting fifteen as the Hamilton-based side seeks to extend their four match winning streak. Sonny Bill Williams has been on fire lately and with All Blacks Aaron Cruden and Richard Kahui around him he will take some stopping.

The bookies have the Chiefs as overwhelming favourites to continue the Australian teams’ horror season. Chiefs by 10.


Highlanders vs Stormers
The Stormers head to the deep South this week for a top-of-the-table clash with the Highlanders.

For the Highlanders, half-back Jimmy Cowan is poised to become the second player, and the first Southlander to notch up 100 matches, following Marlborough-born Otago hooker Anton Oliver. Cowan started on the bench last week behind the in-form Aaron Smith however, so he may well be waiting nervously for a call from Jamie Joseph. The Highlanders also signed ex-Highlander and Chief Mike Delaney from Japan for the remainder of the season as cover at first five-eighth with Colin Slade out for the season. The loose forward pairing of James Haskell and Adam Thompson could be crucial.

The Stormers have only made one change to the side that beat the Bulls in Cape Town last week, with tighthead Frans Malherbe starting, swapping places with Brok Harris who moves to the bench. Andries Bekker anchors a strong lineout, so if skipper Jean De Villiers can spark his exciting outside backs this could be a cracking match. The Stormers have a tough tour down under, facing the Crusaders next week before meeting the Reds and Force on their way home. These four games will be crucial to their home semi-final chances.

This is my tip for match of the round, and I’ll back the home team to shade it. Highlanders by 5.


Cheetahs vs Lions
The Cheetahs return home after a successful tour down under to face the injury ravaged Lions. This presents an ideal opportunity for the Pretoria side to pick up their first home win, and extend their competition lead over the Lions. The wooden spoon winner in the South African conference could well lose their competition spot to the Southern Kings next season, so the pressure is on.

The Cheetahs have officially lost inspirational captain Juan Smith for the year, without him getting near the playing field. In the only change to the team which won in Wellington Ashley Johnson earns a start on the flank opposite Heinrich Brussow with Justin Downey dropping to the bench.

By contrast John Mitchell has made 9 changes to his starting fifteen for the weekend. In some good news for the team Elton Jantjes is back from injury at 10, meaning Butch James moves out to 12, and Jaco Taute drops to fullback. Skipper Josh Strauss is back at 8, while 19 year old rookie Paul Willemse becomes the sixth lock to start for the Lions this season. Martin Bezuidenhout gets a start at hooker as John Mitchell tries to find solutions in the line out.

The Lions picked up a narrow win at home in the reverse fixture early in the season, before their injury crisis so my money is on the Cheetahs. Cheetahs by 10.


Bulls vs Crusaders
In one of the competition’s traditional grudge matches Super Rugby’s most successful team travel to Pretoria to face the second-most successful. It also pits 5th (Bulls) versus 6th (Crusaders) on the table. Don’t miss this one folks!

Frans Ludeke has shown faith in the 22 who lost narrowly in Cape Town last weekend, retaining the starting fifteen and bench. Captain Pierre Spies will have his work cut out in a mouth watering clash with Kieran Read, while the halves pairing of Francois Hougaard and Morne Steyn are in form. Regular starting hooker Willie Wepener is expected to be out for at least three weeks due to a virus.

Dan Carter takes up the kicking duties for the Crusaders this weekend after a couple of weeks of being eased back into rugby after his long lay off. Meanwhile back in New Zealand Richie McCaw had the screws removed from his foot this week and could be as little as two weeks away from a return to action. With Carter kicking goals Tom Taylor drops to the bench in a straight swap with Ryan Crotty at 12.

The Bulls are always tough to beat at home, and the Crusaders have now spent two weeks at altitude, will they be fully acclimatised? The bookies are tipping a narrow Bulls win, which my head agrees with even if my heart doesn’t. Bulls by 4.

Bye:
Waratahs

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

And in pretty html with some tweaks http://www.v2journal.com/super-xv-2012-preview-round-7.html

[aucklandlaurie]

Gee Kiwi I thought that you had written all that,I was most impressed and was about to nominate you for a pulitzer prize for your contribution to literature and journalism,then you went and put up your second post.

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

Gee Kiwi I thought that you had written all that,I was most impressed and was about to nominate you for a pulitzer prize for your contribution to literature and journalism,then you went and put up your second post.

Cheeky beggar!

V2Journal is our sister site, I wrote the article and had to html-code it for there

[aucklandlaurie]

Dont tell me that I had just ripped up the nomination form.

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

Dont tell me that I had just ripped up the nomination form.

Ah well. There's always next week.

[Ozzy3213]

Rebels
Sharks
Reds
Chiefs
Highlanders
Cheetahs
Crusaders

You heard it here first.

[aucklandlaurie]

Couple of observations.

One good reason why the Reds havent done their team sheet ,might be because they havent got 15 players.

No Australian team is in the black in the for and against column,how nuts is that?

Blues (last in NZ conference) has leaked the same number of points as the Brumbies (Leaders of the Australian conference).

If Jimmy cowan makes it onto the field,then its only because Jamie Joseph is managing the good health and well being of Aaron Smith ( the Best distributor from the base of the ruck/scrum that New Zealand has seen for a long time)

If your going to watch the Cheetahs/Lions clash then strap yourself in before hand,because if the Cheetahs play anything like they did last week then theres going to be buckets of points in this one.

And finally a message to Pat Lam. Brad Mika is past this level of rugby.

[Biltong]

From where I sit there seems to be 8 teams that are still in the running, even at this early stage.

Stormers - no losses yet, but they will rack up their first one this weeekend
Highlanders - big question is can they sustain it, still has some travelling to do.

Both Stormers and highlanders in my view will soon gather some losses when they play away from home

Chiefs - Looking good in my view
Bulls - Have lost some away games, but they seem a little inconsistent
Sharks - Needs another away win and some bonus points, there season didn't start to well, but it was losses against the Bulls and Stormers

Brumbies - Looking solid at home, fortunate against the cheetahs, still has a lot of travelling to do.
Crusaders - Getting momentum now, should be there
Hurricanes - I expect them to make the play offs, great individual talent and did most of their travelling already.
Reds - Injuries has taken its toll, but if they want to defend their title they will need to switch on mentally.

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

The Rebels lead the Blues 27-15 with 5 minutes to go, 22 points for O'Connor. Another one wrong for me.

[Ozzy3213]

That's me 1 from 1 then.

[Biltong]

I was going to go for the home team, but reading Mr Pete Creswell's preview and HIM saying the Blues are overwhelming favourites I listened.

And it cost ME points.

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

I was going to go for the home team, but reading Mr Pete Creswell's preview and HIM saying the Blues are overwhelming favourites I listened.

And it cost ME points.

In my defence, even the Aussie bookies were picking the Blues.

[Biltong]

I was going to go for the home team, but reading Mr Pete Creswell's preview and HIM saying the Blues are overwhelming favourites I listened.

And it cost ME points.

In my defence, even the Aussie bookies were picking the Blues.

Well I take advice I am given seriously and that one is on you Mr Creswell.

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

I was going to go for the home team, but reading Mr Pete Creswell's preview and HIM saying the Blues are overwhelming favourites I listened.

And it cost ME points.

In my defence, even the Aussie bookies were picking the Blues.

Well I take advice I am given seriously and that one is on you Mr Creswell.

It's a good job you can't spell the name right (though you did find the most common mis-spelling) or I'd be worried

[Biltong]

I was going to go for the home team, but reading Mr Pete Creswell's preview and HIM saying the Blues are overwhelming favourites I listened.

And it cost ME points.

In my defence, even the Aussie bookies were picking the Blues.

Well I take advice I am given seriously and that one is on you Mr Creswell.

It's a good job you can't spell the name right (though you did find the most common mis-spelling) or I'd be worried

And you reckon that's how you are going to get away with it?

[aucklandlaurie]

I dont agree with Pete Cresswell's prediction in regards to the Reds and the Highlanders,but gee what do I know.

However I do know the Blues are pathetic, and to me look not only like an outfit that doesnt want to play, but also dont even look they want ot be there,What Pat lam and Geoff Wilson have been doing for the last 4 months is a mystery to me,and how Andy Dalton let things get this bad is unforgiveable.The three of them should be sacked.

[yappysnap]

The Blues are just terrible currently!

Can't help but be pleased for the Rebels though two home wins on the bounce is I think matching their winning steak pb.

[Taylorman]

Agree fully Laurie. Ive seen some lows but this is probably the worst shape Auck rugby has been in...well, since before my time, and it was damn good then as well.

10 or so All Blacks all at various stages of fitness and form. Perhaps they thought the names would just seem them through somehow.

Gotta go Highlanders surely but this year top of the table are losing to bottoms almost every week. The only thing I can think of is the 100% focus on the world cup over the past couple of years for most of these players still has them on a downer.

I mean..from: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/6703482/Desperate-Blues-fall-to-Rebels-as-woes-deepen

"But in the 10th minute, with the Blues pressing hard Brad Mika threw a no-look pass that was intercepted by Kurtley Beale, allowing the Wallabies fullback to race 95m for the try. "

At what point in their 'deep analysis did they not manage to rule these out?

Mind boggling how dumb this team is currently.

[aucklandlaurie]

taylorman

The way I see how this situation arose is through Lam's inability to mould a team comprising two different layers of players.

The lack of concetration and accuracy is to me a sign that these players have let bad habits creep into their game,this I believe has been caused by a number of factors,namely, We have a number of World cup winning ABs that are not motivated to reproduce what we know they are capable of at Super xv level,and on the other hand we have a number of very good club/ITM players who give the impression that they dont need to work hard on their basics because they are in a team with all these World Cup winning ABs.
What Lam needs to do is tell the Abs to p..s off for a couple of weeks and realise that they have a job to do before they come back,with the remainder of the squad they have to told "Ok you guys heres your chance show me how good you are with out the big name ABs."

This should all have been addressed in the pre season programme,and giving certain ABs too much leniency has sent the wrong message to the whole squad,and that rot is showing itself now in the form of dropped passes,poor technique and lack of committment.

[Taylorman]

Yep piri's proof in the pudding of that...pun absolutely intended.
Lam probably thought all his dreams had come through but now i cant help but think that hammet or joseph would have had this squad firing if he had them pre season...at least those that were still left.

This team needs a hard core no nonsense coach. Not a half decent recent ex player mate.

[Taylorman]

Two big NZ DA match ups this round. Tops stormers and highlanders and fairly even mid table canes vs sharks are both exciting clashes.

Cmon highlanders...!

[Biltong]

This fight is happening cause Glen Jackson is screwing the sharks at every attacking breakdown.


I am sorry but he is having a nightmare. Every time the Sharks are attacking he finds a reason to penalise them.

[Biltong]

This is BS

[chewed_mintie]

the fight happened coz jannie slaps like a girl!!!

[Biltong]

again ball is kicked over the 10 meter line and Jackson calls ascrum.

The sharks got no chance here

[chewed_mintie]

I've also got to say the sharks aren't helping themselves...they've got a howitzer of a kicker but they're too arrogant to kick when they're in their 22....they've only got themselves to blame for the score biltong

[Biltong]

He penalised JP Pietersen for not supporting his weight whilsyt he is off his feet, then three Hurricanes go flop and that's ok.

[Biltong]

this is pathetic

[chewed_mintie]

awesome try savea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 25-3!! who'd have thought that!

[Biltong]

Check the two rucks just before the 40 minute try, then explain to me how the @#$$$%% those rucks are different.

[chewed_mintie]

my opinion is that the sharks are playing clueless dumb rugby. how do you dominate territory and possession that much and turn around 22 pts down? No ref has that much influence on a game I'm afraid

Sharks have clearly come here to arrogant to kick, thinking the hurricanes will just roll over for a tickle...not today I'm afraid!

[Biltong]

Well then I am the dummest of them all, how the sharks can get penalised every time they get to the goal line and then the Hurricanes do the same thing I have no idea.

[Biltong]

And it is nothing to do with arrogance, they are playing in a strong wind against them, it is clear what their tactics are against the wind.

[chewed_mintie]

not sure biltong....commentators said the canes were running into the wind in the first half...

[chewed_mintie]

two pens in the first 5 mins and a try now biltong...evened itself up now somewhat?

[chewed_mintie]

bonus point try for smith now....mater of millimetres that one!

[chewed_mintie]

amazing try from bateman!!!! that is a top try!

[chewed_mintie]

final score 42-18 hurricanes. Sharks completely wiped out in the 2nd half. i would never have picked this result but well played wellington!!!

[aucklandlaurie]

Biltong
The ref was a guy called Glenn Jackson not Bryce Lawrence. There is no way I would have predicted that The Hurricanes could run a pack like the Sharks around like that,on Plumtree's home ground as well.

[Full Credit]

Sam Lane looking a million times better than Dallan Murphy for the Reds in the first few minutes.

[Taylorman]

I thought the ref thing might surface. At least he was decisive. Whether he got them all right is another thing.

And I'm in the 'theres no such thing as a good ref' camp. Main difference between the two was canes took it too them with what they had and telling breaks were finished off.

Whats with saving players like du plessis? Is he injured or in slow world cup comeback mode?

[eirebilly]

Anyone watching the Force - Chiefs match?

[Full Credit]

Just tuned in.

[Ozzy3213]

Very open game, but so many handling errors from the Chiefs.

[eirebilly]

The Force defended really well I thought.

[Ozzy3213]

They did ok, but if Masaga had a bit more awareness of players around him the Chiefs would have had another couple of tries.

[Biltong]

I have now had my say about referees, I am obviously extremely dense for not being able to understand how they officiate rucks, Mintie two penalties after half time doesn't even things out.

The Sharks were penalised three times on attack at the hurricanes try line.

But that doesn't matter, the point is The sharks and other SA teams are as dense as me, we will most likely never understand it.

I have another solution for us at ruck time though. Do whatever you want, becuase you are improving your chances to get away with things, if they want to pinge you at the ruck, it really doesn't matter whether you are in the wrong or not. It is as much a lottery as the scrum.

[chewed_mintie]

Biltong, I understand your frustrations at ruck time. You're right, they are a bit of a lottery. But Glen Jackson also made some good calls against both teams - you might appreciate the instance where we kicked back and McLeod (halfback?) was caught near his goalline and all at sea - Hurricanes piled in and drove over the ball and were certain to turn it over and could have easily scored but Jackson blew it up and awarded a scrum to the Sharks as he deemed it 'unplayable' (think Jack Lam was the tackler who had was wrapped around McLeod). Justin Marshall summed it up as a call made from a sympathetic ex player. There were also a few ruck penalties made against the Canes and the overall count according to nzherald was 14 pens each so you could argue the ref was pretty even handed.

Now, my Hurricanes are supposed to be in the mire and the easiest NZ team this season so while I am justifiably proud of how they played, I am slightly disappointed with the Sharks as they played pretty dumb rugby - you should be able to admit that. Not even I expected a win by that amount and I must admit I was hoping for a close loss today. But to put a 24 pt flogging down to a couple of pens isn't right.

I don't think you're dense by the way, your posts and articles are usually the most even handed and well informed of any poster on here, I just think that in this case, the Sharks played poor rugby today and got burnt by a team with nothing to lose and playing for each other....

[aucklandlaurie]

Eirebilly
Yes, the Force did defend well at times but they went for 80 minutes never looking like they could score a try.

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