Super XV Round 7 Preview and Live match thread

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

First topic message reminder :

The 2012 Super XV has now played 6 rounds, and already some trends are evident. Defences have tightened up, with few 4-try bonus points being scored. Matches are proving close, with almost 70% of matches decided by 7 points or less. The injury rate has been horrendous, especially in the backs. The Lions, Reds, Blues, Highlanders and Rebels have all been hard-hit by injuries to key players.

As in 2011 the Australian franchise appears to be the “easiest”. Thus far no Australian team has won outside of Australia in 6 matches, while in 6 home matches against non-Australian sides the score is 3-3. By contrast against foreign opposition the New Zealand franchises have won 5 out of 6 at home, and 4 out of 7 away while the South African franchises have 4 out of 7 at home and 3 out of 6 away.

Here is Pete Cresswell’s take on the Easter matches:

Points Table
Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Brumbies	5	3	2	0	1	124	124	0	2	18
2	Reds	6	3	3	0	0	120	180	-60	1	13
3	Waratahs	6	2	4	0	0	140	143	-3	5	13
4	Western Force	6	2	4	0	0	151	169	-18	4	12
5	Rebels	5	1	4	0	1	93	151	-58	2	10

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Highlanders	6	5	1	0	0	156	122	34	2	22
2	Chiefs	5	4	1	0	1	131	91	40	2	22
3	Crusaders	5	3	2	0	1	113	103	10	2	18
4	Hurricanes	6	3	3	0	0	183	177	6	4	16
5	Blues	5	1	4	0	1	103	124	-21	2	10

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stormers	5	5	0	0	1	125	91	34	0	24
2	Bulls	5	3	2	0	1	170	89	81	4	20
3	Sharks	6	3	3	0	0	143	135	8	5	17
4	Cheetahs	6	2	4	0	0	168	194	-26	4	12
5	Lions	5	1	4	0	1	107	134	-27	2	10

Matches:

Rebels vs Blues
The weekend opens with the battle of the cellar-dwellers. The Blues have had a bye week to lick their wounds and will be looking to try and resurrect a season that should have seen them excelling given their off-season recruitment. The Rebels have a stellar backline when all are fit, but Cipriani, O’Connor, Beale and co simply have not had enough ball to work with.

Piri Weepu is relegated to the bench after starting at first five-eighth last time out for the Blues, with Pat Lam preferring Alby Mathewson and Gareth Anscombe in the halves. Rene Ranger returns from suspension on the wing and Keven Mealamu from injury to bolster the side, while Rudi Wulf and Lachie Munro swap positions at wing/fullback. The long term injury news is bleaker though, with Isaia Toeva opting for season-ending surgery on a hip and Anthony Boric’s neck ruling him out until at least the end of May. The Saili brothers (Peter and Francis) have been stood down for two weeks due to a breach of team protocol in South Africa so flanker Dan Pryor comes onto the bench from the Blues’ Wider Training Group.

For the Rebels former Blues flanker Tom Chamberlain has been ruled out of Thursday’s match with concussion, and he is replaced by English import Michael Lipton who has been out with a back injury. In the backs Danny Cipriani and Laclan Mitchell return to the side from injury, while ex-Auckland Warrior Cooper Vuna misses a return “home” due to suspension. James O’Connor moves out to 12 to accommodate Cipriani.

The Blues’ pack have the class to win this one, despite their woeful run of form. Blues by 12.


Hurricanes vs Sharks
We go from 15th vs 14th to a true mid-table match this week with the 8th placed Hurricanes hosting the 7th placed Sharks on Good Friday in New Plymouth, with the winner having a chance to move into the all-important top 6. The Hurricanes have exceeded expectations so far this season, with Mark Hammett instilling a team ethos after shedding a number of stars from last season. On the other hand the Sharks had recruited well and were expected to give the Stormers and Bulls a real challenge in the South African conference. Good Friday is traditionally a “dry” day in New Zealand (most shops and all pubs are shut, similar to Easter Sunday in the UK) so if the stadium has secured a “special event” liquor license may have the only beer in Taranaki.

Victor Vito is out of the match with a calf strain so Jack Lam returns to the starting lineup with Faifili Levave moving to 8. Jason Eaton earns a start, one of five Taranaki players in the starting fifteen. Tim Bateman starts at 12 after a rest last week.

The Sharks have been forced into two changes to the team who won in Canberra last week. Bismark du Plessis starts on the bench after passing a late fitness test following a quadricep strain in training, with Craig Burden earning his first Sharks start. Louis Ludik starts on the wing in place of Odwa Ndungane who is returning to South Africa due to a groin strain. Last week’s late withdrawal Patrick Lambie is still unavailable, so Frenchman Frederic Michalak retains the 10 jersey.

The bookmakers like the Sharks this week, and so do I. Sharks by 5.


Reds vs Brumbies
The injury-stricken Reds return to Brisbane after their “road trip from hell”, conceding 133 points in 3 matches this week to face a Brumbies side stung by a narrow home loss to the Sharks. This match sees the top two sides in the Australian conference play off.

The Reds have not yet named a side for the match, though it is likely that 4th choice fly-half Dallan Murphy will start again.

The Brumbies have their own injury worries with fly-half Matt Toomua ruled out for the season, meaning that Christian Lealiifano and Pat McCabe move in to play 10 and 12. Nic White starts at half back after scoring late against the Sharks to secure a bonus point. The Brumbies are still lacking “names”, with a large chunk of their squad having moved from Queensland in search of game time.

Home advantage decides this one for me, Red by 6.


Western Force vs Chiefs
The Chiefs stop off in Perth on the way to South Africa to face a Force team buoyed by their win over the defending champions last week. The Chiefs are having their best start to the season in years, sitting comfortably in a playoff spot, but have a tough three weeks of touring ahead.

The Force are yet to name a team for the match. They have signed ex-Brumbies and Waratahs scrum half Josh Holmes from Bourgoin for the rest of the season to replace the injured Justin Turner. Inspirational skipper David Pocock will be the key man for them again.

The Chiefs are almost at full strength as they hit the road. Leila Masaga and Mahroni Schwalger return to the starting fifteen as the Hamilton-based side seeks to extend their four match winning streak. Sonny Bill Williams has been on fire lately and with All Blacks Aaron Cruden and Richard Kahui around him he will take some stopping.

The bookies have the Chiefs as overwhelming favourites to continue the Australian teams’ horror season. Chiefs by 10.


Highlanders vs Stormers
The Stormers head to the deep South this week for a top-of-the-table clash with the Highlanders.

For the Highlanders, half-back Jimmy Cowan is poised to become the second player, and the first Southlander to notch up 100 matches, following Marlborough-born Otago hooker Anton Oliver. Cowan started on the bench last week behind the in-form Aaron Smith however, so he may well be waiting nervously for a call from Jamie Joseph. The Highlanders also signed ex-Highlander and Chief Mike Delaney from Japan for the remainder of the season as cover at first five-eighth with Colin Slade out for the season. The loose forward pairing of James Haskell and Adam Thompson could be crucial.

The Stormers have only made one change to the side that beat the Bulls in Cape Town last week, with tighthead Frans Malherbe starting, swapping places with Brok Harris who moves to the bench. Andries Bekker anchors a strong lineout, so if skipper Jean De Villiers can spark his exciting outside backs this could be a cracking match. The Stormers have a tough tour down under, facing the Crusaders next week before meeting the Reds and Force on their way home. These four games will be crucial to their home semi-final chances.

This is my tip for match of the round, and I’ll back the home team to shade it. Highlanders by 5.


Cheetahs vs Lions
The Cheetahs return home after a successful tour down under to face the injury ravaged Lions. This presents an ideal opportunity for the Pretoria side to pick up their first home win, and extend their competition lead over the Lions. The wooden spoon winner in the South African conference could well lose their competition spot to the Southern Kings next season, so the pressure is on.

The Cheetahs have officially lost inspirational captain Juan Smith for the year, without him getting near the playing field. In the only change to the team which won in Wellington Ashley Johnson earns a start on the flank opposite Heinrich Brussow with Justin Downey dropping to the bench.

By contrast John Mitchell has made 9 changes to his starting fifteen for the weekend. In some good news for the team Elton Jantjes is back from injury at 10, meaning Butch James moves out to 12, and Jaco Taute drops to fullback. Skipper Josh Strauss is back at 8, while 19 year old rookie Paul Willemse becomes the sixth lock to start for the Lions this season. Martin Bezuidenhout gets a start at hooker as John Mitchell tries to find solutions in the line out.

The Lions picked up a narrow win at home in the reverse fixture early in the season, before their injury crisis so my money is on the Cheetahs. Cheetahs by 10.


Bulls vs Crusaders
In one of the competition’s traditional grudge matches Super Rugby’s most successful team travel to Pretoria to face the second-most successful. It also pits 5th (Bulls) versus 6th (Crusaders) on the table. Don’t miss this one folks!

Frans Ludeke has shown faith in the 22 who lost narrowly in Cape Town last weekend, retaining the starting fifteen and bench. Captain Pierre Spies will have his work cut out in a mouth watering clash with Kieran Read, while the halves pairing of Francois Hougaard and Morne Steyn are in form. Regular starting hooker Willie Wepener is expected to be out for at least three weeks due to a virus.

Dan Carter takes up the kicking duties for the Crusaders this weekend after a couple of weeks of being eased back into rugby after his long lay off. Meanwhile back in New Zealand Richie McCaw had the screws removed from his foot this week and could be as little as two weeks away from a return to action. With Carter kicking goals Tom Taylor drops to the bench in a straight swap with Ryan Crotty at 12.

The Bulls are always tough to beat at home, and the Crusaders have now spent two weeks at altitude, will they be fully acclimatised? The bookies are tipping a narrow Bulls win, which my head agrees with even if my heart doesn’t. Bulls by 4.

Bye:
Waratahs

[aucklandlaurie]

biltong
If you are insinuating that Glenn jackson was engaging in some form of local bias then why would he do it in favour of the Hurricanes? he was a Chief.

[Mr Fishpaste]

I was confused about some of the ref's calls (especially the two before half-time) but the sharks did throw it away in the final quarter. Three penalties with fifteen minutes to go and they attempt to run all three of them out of their own 22!! Why not kick for territory and take the line out? I am also confused as to how the sharks can look so dominant and dangerous for so much of the match and then fail to finish the moves (aside from the ones where ref's calls were involved) there were several instances when runners isolated themselves and got turned over, knock-ons etc....all very disappointing (seeing as though I am Sharks fan).

[Taylorman]

Jurys still out on the oz sides. The brumbies reds match a little scratchy as well. Chiefs get away with a win which seems a good thing in perth. Canes i thought were very impressive and the sharks just didnt do the basics. Andre taylor ran through them a couple of times and the canes did best with the ball- Batemans raw effort to chip reach and piroiette to the tryline a sign of their hunger and tenacity as a team.

We now have 4 teams almost playing out of the crusaders template and structure and hansen must be in both heaven and hell when looking at the canes and blues this year.

Tonight will be telling with the top of the table clash and joseph will be wanting this at all costs with the chiefs temporarily at top.

[aucklandlaurie]

Fishpaste
You make a good point,when you raise the issue of the number of times that the Sharks didnt finish when the referee hadnt penalised them. I dont know for sure but do you think that there is a possibility that The Sharks were distracted for the 10 minutes following the Fight?But dont worry you've got an easy victory coming your way next Friday night.

Does "fishpaste" have a shark connotation?

[Biltong]

Biltong, I understand your frustrations at ruck time. You're right, they are a bit of a lottery. But Glen Jackson also made some good calls against both teams - you might appreciate the instance where we kicked back and McLeod (halfback?) was caught near his goalline and all at sea - Hurricanes piled in and drove over the ball and were certain to turn it over and could have easily scored but Jackson blew it up and awarded a scrum to the Sharks as he deemed it 'unplayable' (think Jack Lam was the tackler who had was wrapped around McLeod). Justin Marshall summed it up as a call made from a sympathetic ex player. There were also a few ruck penalties made against the Canes and the overall count according to nzherald was 14 pens each so you could argue the ref was pretty even handed.

Now, my Hurricanes are supposed to be in the mire and the easiest NZ team this season so while I am justifiably proud of how they played, I am slightly disappointed with the Sharks as they played pretty dumb rugby - you should be able to admit that. Not even I expected a win by that amount and I must admit I was hoping for a close loss today. But to put a 24 pt flogging down to a couple of pens isn't right.

I don't think you're dense by the way, your posts and articles are usually the most even handed and well informed of any poster on here, I just think that in this case, the Sharks played poor rugby today and got burnt by a team with nothing to lose and playing for each other....

Mintie I disagree with you that the hurricanes are easy to beat, they showed on their tour in SA when they played the stormers how talented their individuals are.

I have no issue with the fact that the Hurricanes won, I expected them to win, I even predicted it on Sportsguru. That is not my point.

I had the same feeling again today as I had during our QF exit. The Sharks were camping on the goal line of the Hurricanes and who ever you want to blame, they were pinged by Jackson every time. You say the sharks were dum, I ask this question. Go look as one example to where 4 mintues before the end of the first half, the sharks are on goal line, literally, Chadwick is blown for going off his feet, by getting a knee on the ground.

At the next attack of the hurricanes, there are two rucks before they score, at BOTH at least 2 Hurricanes are doing the belly flop, but not blown. These are facts, you are most welcome to have a look at that again. That is a 14 point swing. It effectively takes the Sharks out of the match. From there they have to risk everything to get back in the match.

You say the
hurrcianes should not have won that far. And I agree. The points they scored there after was to be expected as the Sharks risked everything.

I get back to my point, the ruck is a lottery similar to the scrum. Today the sharks played positive rugby, you choose to see it as dum rugby, I choose to see it as another example of where I simply do not understand the ruck.

[Biltong]

biltong
If you are insinuating that Glenn jackson was engaging in some form of local bias then why would he do it in favour of the Hurricanes? he was a Chief.

Laurie, you know what I don't know what I am saying anymore. But it sure felt impossible that the sharks could run the whole of the first haf and everytime they get near the try line they are pinged for something.

This game just doesn't make sense to me anymore. It is easy to ignore these issues when a team is winning, but not so easy to ignore when it is the other way around.

I suppose I have to resign myself to the fact that I know and understand less about rugby than I thought.

[Taylorman]

I think it partially explains what mccaw being able to read the ref means. He just listens and agrees with everything youll notice. Time at hand just doesnt permit trying to interptet, disagree or persuade the ref.

Mccaw listens...and does it...or doesnt do whatever the ref at the times is advocating so tells himself, and his players to do or dont as applicable...for this ref, for this match.

So perhaps youre right biltong. Its not the rules, or how you see them. Its how the ref at the time sees them. And perhaps mccaw might be even smarter than even we give him credit for.

Its also a little dangerous to interpret this as ref bias against one team or another where it actually just may be that one team isnt as adaptable when it comes to reading the ref and continues the same actions regardless.

[yappysnap]

I think it partially explains what mccaw being able to read the ref means. He just listens and agrees with everything youll notice. Time at hand just doesnt permit trying to interptet, disagree or persuade the ref.

Mccaw listens...and does it...or doesnt do whatever the ref at the times is advocating so tells himself, and his players to do or dont as applicable...for this ref, for this match.

So perhaps youre right biltong. Its not the rules, or how you see them. Its how the ref at the time sees them. And perhaps mccaw might be even smarter than even we give him credit for.

Its also a little dangerous to interpret this as ref bias against one team or another where it actually just may be that one team isnt as adaptable when it comes to reading the ref and continues the same actions regardless.

That is actually exactly it.

In the modern game it's all about the refs interptetations of the laws, fail to realise what the ref wants and you'll lose.

[Taylorman]

Gteat try by petierson. Stormers have the likely bok template at the moment. Resolute defence and super quick back 3.
We just dont see enough of these tries even though the skill levels are very high.

Highlanders have a tough second half cracking this lot.

[Taylorman]

Haskell very so so. Not playing a true 7 role. Never first to the breakdown and wrong body position at breakdowns. Just not working enough as well. Forever roaming.

[aucklandlaurie]

Taylorman
Interesting you say that,I watched him come off a scrum inthe first half and because he didnt take the 2nd five line the first five easily round him, noonne can be expected to get the pivot every time but he is at least expected to put some pressure om him.

[Taylorman]

Tough on him though as the stormers are handing out a lesson in closing the game down. They're just one of those teams that make it look as though they have 20 on the field their marking is so close and doubling up everywhere. Highlanders wont crack this without something stunning.

[yappysnap]

I thought Thompson was the poacher for Highlanders and Hask played a more roaming role regardless of the numbers on their shirts?

Amazed by the amount of penalties given away by Stormers and finally a yellow!

[aucklandlaurie]

yappysnap

Sometimes an openside has to be a bit more specific in his role than roaming,especially from set play.

[Taylorman]

Yeah not a good day for anyone really. Haskell did ok but pales when compared to thompsons work rate.
Cant see Stormers losing many at all if they keep this up. Just dont know whether itll be effective at knockout where form teams will throw everything at it in a one off.
Fully deserved win and stormers are at the top for a reason. Theyre the best team in the comp by some margin at this point.

[Full Credit]

Very impressive from the Stormers tonight. Great commitment in defence, solid set piece and flashes of individual brilliance. Pieterson had a blinder at the back and Habana looks in good nick.

Thompson had a quiet game for the 'landers except if you include throwing your arms out complaining to the ref in which case he was reasonably busy. Were there any forward passes called tonight? I counted at least 6 that looked contentious. Is that still a rule?

[Biltong]

The stormers has the right idea here, don't commit to the rucks, you get pinged there, rather stay on your feet and commit to defence. They still did get pinged a few times but managed to survive.

The Highlanders suffered by not having a recognised kicker in the second half, otherwise they would have been able to work their way into the match with accumilation.

Still not convinced the Stormers are convincing on attack, Habana seems to have regained his hunger and his form which is good for SA rugby, the yellow card was a nothing.

Pietersen looked solid, but there were a few times where he took the forwards on and the stormers should have lost more turn overs.

Their defence though is incredible, the difference is their commitment and communication.

I think Thompson tried very hard, but he was gan tackled every time he got the ball, and half the tackles the Stormers pulled off sent the ball carrier back.

[aucklandlaurie]

There is something wrong with this competition if the Stormers arent there on Finals day.

[Biltong]

There is still a long way to go, Laurie. They have promised to win this tournamnet for 4 or so years now and always fall short at the last hurdles.

[aucklandlaurie]

I'd hate to see something like the interuption in June ruin The Stormers (or any other team for that matter) momentum.

[Biltong]

Well that's the problem with this super XV comp. It has literally taken over our calendars.

[aucklandlaurie]

Biltong
I have only just started to think about the damage that this extended Super xv could make to International rugby,I had mostly looked at the impact to the domestic competitions,but there is a definite risk to all forms.

[Biltong]

Yeah well, the repercussions of this Conference system is far reaching. Fatigue, injuries, management of players, shortened ITM and Currie Cups, less time for international coaches to prepare their squads for June test window, illogical fixtures where teams don't play all teams. the qualification for semi finals.

The whole system sucks, and all for the supposed almighty dollar.

I doubt the administrations of SA and NZ in particular thought past the dollar at any stage of these negotiations.

[aucklandlaurie]

Biltong
I saw you ran a thread on it a couple of weeks ago and I didnt really apply much thought to it at the time , but as it now only 6 weeks away I do see the concerns.

[Biltong]

Yeah well, I tend to look at things from all angles. Often people would disgree with me, but I like challenging the "accepted" norm.

[yappysnap]

Yeah well, the repercussions of this Conference system is far reaching. Fatigue, injuries, management of players, shortened ITM and Currie Cups, less time for international coaches to prepare their squads for June test window, illogical fixtures where teams don't play all teams. the qualification for semi finals.

The whole system sucks, and all for the supposed almighty dollar.

I doubt the administrations of SA and NZ in particular thought past the dollar at any stage of these negotiations.

Finally the NH and Sh seasons are alligned, to the detriment of all involved. All hail Sky, all hail the Dollar!

[Full Credit]

I think it's ludicrous to split the season like that. The rugby season builds nicely as it was through the super rugby finals, June tests, Trinations progressively getting tougher. You can't just switch from club mode to test mode and back.

If they're going to persist with 15 (or more) teams in the super comp then why not just play each other team once in the season alternating home and away through the years. Sure, that will lead to favourable draws year to year depending on the form of the teams you play away but you already get that now. If you're not going to play each team both and home and away in a season then why insist playing some teams home and away but not others at all?

[Biltong]

Fc, there seems to be very little common sense being brought into it.

The same thing with the actual qualification.

You let the conference leader qualify irrespective of where they end up on the log.

Other teams may have more points than you and yet you still qualify which means the qualification criteria makes no commone sense.

Then to make matters worse, the one conference leader has to play a knock out match, whilst the other two loses momentum for not playing for a week, but do get some rest.

So the question is who benefits, thse teams who like momentum loses out, then you may have a situation where a team just crossed the Indian ocean for their last round robin match, only to cross the Indian Ocean to play a knock out, and then perhaps have to return again to play a final.

[Full Credit]

The qualification is a joke. Top 6 should be top 6 on log points not based on conferences or wildcards (although I'd be happy with top 4, 1 plays 4, 2 plays 3, then the final).

The Reds were widely criticised last year as having it easy with regards to playing the harder teams at home, easy conference etc so it should be apparent to the administrators that on-one wants to slug theirs guts out all season to win it only to have their achievements ridiculed. Taking that further, it would be an extremely hollow victory if a team went on to win it after 'qualifying' 6th but they actually came 8th or 9th but scrapped through based on the conference system.

[Biltong]

Yeah, that will make a mockery of he whole thing, I would also prefer top four.

[Taylorman]

Stormers are playing to a formula that works at the moment but may come unstuck later when teams find ways of cracking the defences.

Possibly when some players find form and perhaps if the stormers injury toll comes into it with the toll on their physicality. The Crusaders have been surviving at half speed with players like carter and mccaw out and key abs regaining form and they usually peak at the right time.

The reds may still have a say but at this point are probably best for a one off upset.

Certainly at this point the stormers are a class above from todays viewing and NZ teams for one will take note and pick this team to bits looking for holes and weaknesses.

Good to have them though an hansen will also be taking note of the formula used. Simple. But extremely effective.

[Biltong]

You can see the tactics of the Bulls biting them in the backside, you don't kick the ball to the Crusaders.

[Full Credit]

Cheeky play from the saders there not committing anyone to the maul.

[Biltong]

yeah, not looking very good for the Bulls, they aren't even trying to ruck, in fact they showing little commitment.

[Taylorman]

Saders actually look nearer to their attacking norms with the ball going through the hands many times already looking for gaps.

Hougaard all class again and nuts if hes not the 9 this year. Guilfords also at his annoying best and he could provide the key break in this match such is the timing of his backline entries.
Bulls would do well to watch him if he gets anywhere near Dagg and co to run off him.

[Biltong]

Well the Bulls will have to step up their intensity, they are missing tackles, their defence isn't looking organised and the Crusaders are exploiting the gaps.

Kicking ball away will definitely not win them this game. And it seems there is no arrivals at the rucks, standing back waiting for the attacks aren't going to make things easier.

Crusaders aren't even looking as if they out of second gear yet,

[Biltong]

Geez, good dummy from Dean Greyling and showing a bit of pace there for such a big guy.

[Full Credit]

Nice worked try from the bulls, worth it just to see their cheerleaders.

[Taylorman]

Good try bulls. Where did that come from? Not a lot of defence going on in that one.

[Biltong]

I am starting to think we should all props in our back line, Coenie Oosthuizen last week with the step and now Dean Greyling with the dummy.

[Biltong]

agh, another one of theose contentious penalties at scrumtime.

[Full Credit]

Geez, Carter would be lucky to hit the side of a bus at this rate.

[Full Credit]

Saders robbed a meat pie there.

[Taylorman]

Good match. Wouldnt have been right for saders to pop that one at the end leaving it too late.

Sa teams winning the ledger this round with 2 very good performances.

NZ teams need to relook at their gameplans as. SA sides are knocking our attacks back easily. Saders would do well to meet a peak form stormers next week to further assure our sides how tough the rest of this year will be.

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