Rafa or Roger who takes it and why?

Roger had a very easy match as Simon retired after 3 games. Rafa had a bit of a struggle against Berdych. They have played on this court twice before many years ago and split the two matches. Both have looked quite imperious in their quest to the semis, Roger hasn't dropped a set and Rafa has dropped only one to Berdych. Roger won their last match up in London, but Rafa holds a 14-8 edge career wise, and i think on Hardcourt Roger enjoys a slight edge.

Here is my prediction: Rafa takes the victory 7-6, 3-6, 6-2. I think the first set will be tight and then I see Rafa slowly getting his rhytym and taking control of the match. Frankly, at this stage in their careers I wouldn't favor Roger over Rafa on any surface other than indoors. Roger needs to be aggressive on the backhand return and not just chip back the return to Rafa. A soft chipped return to Rafa on his serve is like an open invitation to get hit off the court. Roger has to come over the return that will be crucial. He can't have a wimbeldon final where he blows a huge number of break points against Rafa. Also Roger needs to serve well. Rafa on the other hand the textbook is clear, do what you always do against Fed, stand in the backhand corner use your legs and positioning to turn almost every backhand into a forehand and play your cross court forehand v. Fed's one handed backhand.

I think Federer will win this one, purely because he needs to, really, if he's going to keep up with the Top 2. Federer is 2nd on clay points to defend, so he's not going to catch up then, by which point Djokovic could already be out of reach.

It's also worth noting that in the World Tour Finals, Federer actually won the match because of his backhand, not in spite of it. He's certainly more agressive and controlled with it than he used to be (not that it was a 'weakness' in the first place, mind), and he belted a fair few winners with it in the AO, too. Federer in 3.

Exaclty, TITN at the tour finals Roger hit the backhand return aggressively and went up the line with the backhand brilliantly, those are two things he will have to replicate if he wants to beat Rafa. I think Roger's backhand isn't a weakness, except against players of the highest order that can both play defense and direct very heavy spin shots over and over to that wing. Roger is about average size for a tour player at 6'1 and high heavy balls to the one-handed backhand are difficult to handle, especially when you keep getting a steady diet of them every point.

For Federer to win he has to to not get caught playing cross court backhand v. Rafa's cross court forehand, he has to change up the flow and hit flat and hard up the line with the backhand Nadal on the next shot will then be forced into hitting into Roger's forehand. But this is a risky play, it remains to be seen if he can replicate it over and over again.

I believe Rafa will win in straights, unless Fed employs the use of those aggressive tactics (with regular consistency) he used in the Tour Finals as has already been alluded to. But I feel as long as Rafa's hitting those powerful topspin shots with good length he should be able to prevail...I dont think Fed's cause was helped by Simon's ret, though Rafa appeared to be struggling at times vs Berdych with some sort of injury i think so maybe the tired/soreness may play a part...

Roger has to be super aggressive as you pointed out AL, but can he replicate those tactics over and over again without hitting himself out of the match with errors. He needs to shorten the points and be the aggressor, but against Nadal who retrieves and counterpunches as well as he does it may be too much of an ask to do it over and over again.

socal1976 wrote:He needs to shorten the points and be the aggressor, but against Nadal who retrieves and counterpunches as well as he does it may be too much of an ask to do it over and over again.

That's the crux of it socal...well we shall soon be seeing who's right I guess, should be a great match