Super XV: Roundup Week 8.

At the end of week 8 there are no more unbeaten teams, The Crusaders halted the Stormers unbeaten run in an extremely entertaining match. Travelling teams who got solid away wins were: Sharks and Chiefs.
Here is a list of the travelling results so far.

Home team first.

Stormers 39 - Hurricanes 26
Lions 28 - Hurricanes 30
Western Force 19 - Hurricanes 46
Brumbies 24 - Cheetahs 23
Highlanders 18 - Waratahs 17
Bulls 23 - Blues 29
Chiefs 29 - Brumbies 22
Stormers 27 - Blues 17
Sharks 27 - Reds 22
Rebels 26 - Cheetahs 33
Waratahs 34 - Sharks 30
Crusaders 28 - Cheetahs 21
Brumbies 33 - Highlanders 26
Bulls 61 - Reds 8
Highlanders 43 - Rebels 12
Hurricanes 38 - Cheetahs 47
Chiefs 30 - Waratahs 13
Brumbies 26 - Sharks 29
Lions 13 - Crusaders 23
Highlanders 6 - Stormers 21
Western Force 12 - Chiefs 20
Hurricanes 42 - Sharks 18
Rebels 34 - Blues 23
Bulls 32 - Crusaders 30
Blues 23 - Sharks 29
Crusaders 31 - Stormers 24
Cheetahs 33 - Chiefs 39

Summary.
Australian teams at home: 4 wins - 4 losses
Australian teams away: 0 wins – 6 losses

South African teams at home: 5 wins – 4 losses
South African teams away: 5 wins – 5 losses

New Zealand teams at home: 7 wins – 3 losses
New Zealand teams away: 6 wins – 5 losses


Log ignoring bye log points and based on team's log points earned per match played.

Spoiler:

There is a definite pattern emerging, the Chiefs showed this weekend why they must be the favourites near the half way mark of the competition, they are organised, extremely physical and with SBW and Richard Kahui a very likely combination for the All Blacks. The Crusaders are beginning to hit their straps and the experiment with Dan Carter at 12 was in no means a wasted effort. Stormers should be the leading SA Franchise, but the Bulls and Sharks should fight it out for one of the Play off spaces.

My Predictions for play offs after week 8.

Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes, Stormers, Sharks and Brumbies. One thing is clear though, the Australian Franchises are chasing the pack and the current leading Australian Franchise the Brumbies are languishing in 7th. It will make a bit of a mockery of the format though, if the leading Australian Franchise doesn't even make the top six lof positions and yet gets a play off spot.

The problem I see arising is how unfair is it if your team makes it to the playoffs and has to play against one of the better performing tems while other teams get a somewhat "easy " game against the Australian wildcard,im not trying to be insulting to the cousins here.

aucklandlaurie wrote: The problem I see arising is how unfair is it if your team makes it to the playoffs and has to play against one of the better performing tems while other teams get a somewhat "easy " game against the Australian wildcard,im not trying to be insulting to the cousins here.

It might be perceived as "easy", but if say the Reds get through and have a home playoff (which the top Aus qualifier is guaranteed) with most of their injured players back then it is still a potentioal banana skin.

And then again being an Aucklander I neednt worry my silly little head about such issues, as it wont concern us.

aucklandlaurie wrote: And then again being an Aucklander I neednt worry my silly little head about such issues, as it wont concern us.

It could be worse mate. There's no relegation and the Blues aren't going broke any time soon. London Wasps OTOH ...

The poor performance of the Aussies this season with the Brumbies being the only team with any kind of worthwhile results and still sitting in 7th spot on the real standings does point up the artificiality of the conference system.

The cynics might say that this is why the ARU pushed for the conference model to ensure they always had a side in the business end of the comp.

With the implosion of the Blues, one would have thought that at least two Aussie teams would have been challenging. Admittedly, the Reds are down some players, but on results so far, it's an SA v NZ show.

Am curious to see if the longer S15 season has begun to have an effect, and will it get more pronounced by time of the June break? Are injury numbers up on previous seasons?

Will this have an effect on any of the SH test teams come June?

Pot Hale, the conference system was a Aussie idea, guaranteeing each conference a home playoff was (as I understand it) an SA condition.

Injuries have been horrendous this season IMO, much worse that last season. However many of those injured players will I think be back on deck by June so not a massive impact.

NZ will be minus Kaino, Toeava and a couple of fringe players. (Plus possibly McCaw who's recovery from last year's foot injury is slow). Kaino will be the big loss against Ireland, as he's one of the few players in the game who can match Ferris.

I think Aus will be back to full strength. And while they are spread a bit thin across 5 teams, they're pretty good at finding a decent 1st 22.

SA are still missing Juan Smith, and I hope Andries Bekker wasn't badly hurt yesterday. Bismark du Plessis is a concern too. Otherwise most of the Boks' side is drawn from the Stormers, Bulls and Sharks who have been less affected than the Lions by injury

My concern is not so much the injuries at this stage but the little time Meyer, Hansen and Deans are going to have with their squads.

The first test match for each of SA, Oz and NZ is going to be the toughest in my view, as coaches will be lucky to have had 2 and at most 3 training sessions with their squads, so I expect a lot of errors and miscommunication in those first matches.

Hansen has got clearance two weeks out to pull out the ABs for training camps in preparation for the Irish tests. So it´ll be interesting to see the effect that has on the NZ sides. The Chiefs without Cruden, SBW and Kahui for example could be a huge hindrance for the Chiefs.

I really don´t see why each country should have a top spot. They didn´t have it before so don´t see why that should change. Get the points and home advantage for the top two. It´s already unfair how some sides don't play two sides because of the conference system.

The brilliance of Jerome Kaino, never seen this happen to Ferris and don't think I ever will.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2D-4wAsuGs

sorry to go a bit off topic but it is stupid that log leaders get auto matic place.
It is quiet possible that the Auz team will finish outside the top 6 but will still get a home quarter.

If the Auz team is outside the top six with weaker teams in it was will that say

Each team plays 8 home matches and 8 away I believe- two conference rounds and all but two of the other conferences once.

Oz side has won 4 from 14 outside their conference so its on the cards that at that rate no Oz side will get into the top 6 for that reason. They need to win against NZ SA teams to have any hope of a second team in from here- and it will make a mockery of the system if that happens and one of them wins it.

be interesting to see what the remaining crowd attendances are over there...

When you look at the expectation of a team going on tour, they play 2 matches in each of the other countries.

So to qualify you need based on history of the tournament in the past and the log of last year's super XV, roughly 3 points per match to make the top six.

Currently there are 5 teams on 3 points per match or more, Chiefs, Stormers, Bulls, Hurricanes and Highlanders

The Sharks, Crusaders and Brumbies are within .25 of the intended target.

What must be considered however is that the sharks have completed their tour and achieved 11 log points on their trip, the Crusaders have done their South African leg and still as the waratahs and Rebels to tour, now you will expect them to beat the Rebels comfortably and the Waraths at this stage is perhaps 60/40 in favour of the Crusaders, so they could end up with 9-13 points from their overseas legs.

Looking at the current leading australian Franchise the Brumbies, they have the Bulls, Hurricanes and Lions away and already lost their first away match, it is likely they will beat the Lions which means they will have only made 4 log points on their travels.

The Reds have completed their South African trip and only came away with 1 log points, they still have to play the Blues and Crusaders away which in my opinion might see them come back with not one win on their travels, even if the Blues are struggling.

The Waratahs have their SA leg to look forward too and they have to face the Stormers and Cheetahs which may be too tough, they didn't win in NZ and only gained 1 log point.

So looking at the three strongest Franchises in Australia you may find that between them they might have only 2 wins out of 12 matches to show for teir endeavours on tour.

The benefit they have is they play the rebels and Force twice and could make up points in the double round and this could catapult them up a spot of two.

But the success in the Super XV is no longer who gets to the knock out rounds (due to the fallacy of the system), but how successful were you in your tours and visiting teams.

New Zealand is a smidgeon ahead of SA at the moment, but Australia lags very far behind indeed.

I think as you show Bill that Auz are in danger of not making the playoffs on merrit. Isn't it true that the Auz team will be ranked no 3 and so have a home Quarter and play number 2 in the semi.

I think the problem this year is that the no one team is winning all the games in Auz like last year.

Bill I know your a stats wiz, what was the table last year if you only allow home and away games against other country's teams.
I know that the they didn't all play the same teams

Brendan I will have to do a bit of research so will post it later.

Brendan: 2011:

Australian teams won 11 matches out of 20 at home and one draw
Australian teams won 5 out of 20 matches away from home

Best home team for Australia Reds with 4 wins
Best away team for Australia Reds with 3 wins
Worst home team for Australia Rebels with 1 win
Worst away team for Australia Brumbies, Rebels and Waratahs, all 0 wins

New Zealand teams won 7 matches away from home and 1 draw
New Zealand teams won 15 out of 20 matches at home

Best home team for New Zealand Crusaders 4 wins
Best away team for New Zealand Crusaders 2 wins
Worst home team for New Zealand Highlanders 2 wins
Worst away team for New Zealand Hurricanes and Chiefs 1 win

South African teams won 9 out of 20 matches away from home
South African teams won 12 out of 20 matches at home.

Best home team for SA Sharks 4 wins
Best away team for SA Stormers 3 wins
Worst home team for SA Lions 0 wins
Worst away team for SA Bulls and Cheetahs 1 win.

I´m not sure whether the Stormers and Bulls' success for SA is a hindrance or a blessing. Because let´s take Australia for example. The Reds have a horror injury list but if one team is not dominating, then you tend to take a more global view and go with your best combinations and individual players regardless of the team´s form.

But in SA, you have two teams dominating and the others up and down. So the pressure is to take the majority of your team from those winning teams and adopt the gameplan of those teams. But take a team like the Cheetahs who have what looks to be a very good gameplan but lack a bit of firepower in crucial areas. Why can't you take that gameplan and fill the team with players who are capable of doing that? I guess because it´s harder for the Stormers and Bulls players to adjust to that defensive mindset and introduce a bit more variety to the game. What do you reckon Biltong? Am I talking out my a**e or could I have by some miracle a point?

Kia, I was saying this on one of the trheads on the international section.

The perception of the Springboks playing a conservative game plan, and the perception on whther those self same players can be more exciting is but a flyhalf away.

Give Frans Steyn, Jaque Fourie, Bryan Habana, JP Pietersen and Joe Pietersen a halfback pairing of Hougaard and Lambie, and the whole predictability, vision, attacking threat, all of it changes immediately.

then keep playing the same structured rugby, but allow the players room to express themselves and we will be a totally different team.

I agree there. That´s the frustrating thing. I'm not saying adopting a style like the ABs or Australia. But being a bit more creative with the ball in hand and the running at the line.

But how much do you want to bet the goalkicker M Steyn gets the nod over Lambie at least for the England series?

He will, Meyer has already said he is going with experience for this one, the question is how long will he keep obvious talents like Lambie and Goosen out of the mix.

Maybe a series loss would do it against England. But we both don't want that to happen...

What I don't get with SA is this, they are only one of three possibly four that can play a frowards and backs game.

NZ SA Fra and Eng will always have a scrum that is rarely dominated in a match and will always have backs that can destroy teams. I wouldn't include Eng on the Backs.

I don't know why SA don't do more running it is not like they have to keep it tight their Forwards can always pull ith tight if they have too

I think it is the mindset of the coaches that are appointed.

Nick Mallet had a proper gameplan for Sa, one where we used our forwards for what they were intended to be used and backs running like Gazelles (AS Bill McLaren described some Boks in 1998).

Harry Viljoen was a business man who should never have been involved in Springbok coaching, but alas the nepotism brought him in and he failed miserably.

Rudolph streauli was the biggest mistake made by SARU since professional rugby.

Jake White knew how to build a squad and how to use his assets in the best way possible, I was never in favour of him resting players and sacraficing test matches, his record could have looked a lot better, perhaps even as good as Nick Mallet's if he focused on winning every test. Remember at the time he became coach we had no talented fly halves.

PDV, well I really have not much to say.

Heyneke Meyer now has the opportunity to set things right, but it has been 12 years since we had a coach willing to play rugby, let's hope Heyneke Meyer is one of them.

I still think that NZ and SA are the only two teams that can swap their 1st and 2nd choice and only lose 1 or 2 % except for one or two but to be fair SA should have that much of a problem as they have good people in every position.

If SA players all played at Home I think that they and NZ would have three strong teams with one Auz.

The problem as you have said before with PDV was he had his team and then he had we'll try him once or stwice and if he fails we'll move one.

I would say that the top 10 backs are all international and are the top 4 halfs and in Sa propably the Top 24 are international but may need a few games. Nz is ovbiously swap forwards for backs.

Meyer did well as Bulls but you need dare I say it a Auz or Nz style backs coach or a african soccer coach to keep the peace as they are all about attack all the time and well we'll be fine

Every good news for the cheetahs Franchise, Johan Goosen has extended his contract to play for the Cheetahs to 2014.

I am happy to see this, otherwise it would not have been long for some other money throwing Franchise to poach him away.