Madrid Final

Hello, welcome to the final.

Federer vs Berdych

Head to Head:

10-4 (Federer)

Current ranking:

3-7 (Federer)

ATP Points Race:

2,865 (Federer)
1,545 (Berdych)

2012 Win/Loss

26-3 (Federer)
22-6 (Berdych)

Good luck, and play fair!

A tough one to predict.

If its windy you'd have to favour Fed.

Otherwise Bird has the power off both wings to really trouble Fed. He's won a fair few against Fed and nearly all of their matches have been tight affairs. Could see a couple of tie-breakers.

I'm gonna go for Fed in three with at least one tie-break.



emancipator

emancipator wrote:A tough one to predict.

If its windy you'd have to favour Fed.

Otherwise Bird has the power off both wings to really trouble Fed. He's won a fair few against Fed and nearly all of their matches have been tight affairs. Could see a couple of tie-breakers.

I'm gonna go for Fed in three with at least one tie-break.



emancipator

Berdych has won 3 of the last 5, pretty good lately.

Has to keep the rally short to trouble the more versatile Federer though.

I agree with emancipator, it could be a close affair, Bird has troubled Fed, but on those occasions he has, it's been on faster surfaces, 2 out of his 3 recent wins (2010/2011) came @ Wimbledon and Cinci. I don't believe Bird's record against Fed on clay is particularly good either (has he lost all his matches against Fed on clay)?

Given Fed's current form and the fact that even if it's blue, it's still clay, I'd say Fed is the favourite. Will Bird's big hitting be enough on a clay court to win it? I'm unsure, but he did manage to push Djokovic to 3 sets in Monte Carlo so 3 sets seem likely. As Fed has had plenty of time off and paced himself well, I have Fed as favourite, had he not though, it's easy to see Fed going down in similar style to the way he did to Roddick over a month ago: a close match Fed really shouldn't have lost (what did the damage in that match was losing the first set tie breaker, so clearly who takes the tie breaker [if they play one] will probably win).

Yes but luciusmann this isn't ordinary clay...infact this really isn't clay at all as the Madrid 12 vs Wimb 98 stats show I mentioned elsewhere. Since when did Berdy get anywhere near clay finals before? This is a proper fast court and so Berdy has a very good chance against Federer...infact I'm predicting he'll win in 3.

However, I wonder how good this extended exposure to UF clay is as preparation for Rome next week....really wouldn't surprise me if Fed went early if he faces a half decent clay opponent in R1/R2 as the surface will be so different.

Fed wont have any trouble adapting. If I were him I'd try to win this, get some points in Rome and wave Djokovic through to beat Nadal in the final and get me seeded #2 for RG.

He has good chance of that #2 seeding for sure. For Djokovic I'd be worried about his arms and legs being taped up yesterday...come end of RG he's going to look like a mummified pharaoh at this rate, and about able to run similarly, I wonder if his body can take the continued long ralley punishing that Nadal has shown he can soak up year on year the odd knee tweak aside? Or are we starting to see signs of wear on Nole's slighter body with the punishment he needs to give it to live at Nadal's using a similar game approach...after all, less muscle = less tendon/ligament protection.

Got to say that Nadal has proven he can stand the pace, it's only recently that Djokovic was a wimp. Who knows?

Well we saw what living at the level of USO11 did to Nole, almost wrote off the rest of his 11 season. He's not exactly played that much since Miami...and yet his arms and legs are taped up...with certainly more gruelling tennis to follow next week and not long after at RG, then hardly any break before SW19....it's a lot of tennis to carry injuries through if you're business-ending each week.

Rafa is an incredible physical specimen.

Many have predicted that Rafa would have a career shortened by injury.

I don't believe that for one moment.

He's almost 26 and looks more robust than ever.

I doubt very much that he will hang up his racket before his 30th birthday as some have predicted.

He will remain a force on the tour for many years yet, just like Federer has.

I still expect him to end his career with accomplishments rivalling those of Federer.

Right now with Novak looking increasingly more flaky, Rafa is my favourite for the channel double.



emancipator

Infact who outside of Super Novak (increasingly more and more MIA) is gonna beat Rafa at the slams? Maybe Roger has a shot (long) at Wimbledon and the USO. Other than that, who else?

Murray? I don't think so

Bird, Tsonga, Ferrer, Del Po? Highly unlikely

Raonic, Harrison, Tomic, Dolgo? Those guys would do well to make a quarter final first. They have next to no chance of beating Rafa over five sets.

So basically it comes down to an inspired Roger or Novak. I think Rafa's chances of adding multiple slams over the next few years are very good.



emancipator

Things can change very fast.

Exactly BB.

Despite Nadal's recent set back Emancipator, I'm sure Nadal will be a force to contend with in the slams and I'm sure most posters (including Fed fans) would agree that he will.

We should put things in perspective, if Djokovic loses early in Rome (and let's be frank, he still got to the quarters @ Madrid despite loud complaints about the surface) then we could talk about him dropping from last year's form. However, he's got to at least 3 finals this year and he won 2 out of the 3, and in perspective, that's the same record as Nadal this year, and the percentage is a whole lot better than Nadal's last year (at the same point)!

As I said, Rome will give a more realistic idea of how the top 3 will do @ RG rather than Madrid so I wouldn't draw too many conclusions about Djokovic's and Nadal's performance @ Madrid. We'll also get a better idea of how Fed will fair against Djokovic and Nadal if he encounters them, which I'm especially looking forward to seeing. I can understand why so many posters think Fed hasn't been tested enough yet when he's won some of the tournaments he's won this year. Reminds me of what some were saying this time last year before RG about Djokovic's success against Nadal (i.e. it won't be the same @ a grand slam). Eventually Djokovic was and Fed will be too, it makes for a fascinating next two months.

I agree with these posts - Nads remains the favourite over the clay season and will pick up slams elsewhere when Djokovic is off the boil. I've given up on Murray as effective opposition so I guess it'll be the next batch coming through that'll pose any serious challenge.

Emanci, My prediction for Rome, Nadal goes out against MR, I can't wait for this match, MR is proving the real deal, terribly unlucky to lose the match against TMF, he is gaining in confidence and a win against Rafa in clay would do world of wonders to his confidence.

15 aces or so yesterday from Berdych, the key is keeping that level up.

Could almost play like the 2009 wimbledon final.

Fast start by Berdych; Federer knows he has to step it up a bit now.

Hmm.. i'm wondering whether to lay off some of my £20 bet on berdy at 15/2.

If berdy can win this i'll get£150, but right now i could lay off and get about £80 either way, as berdy has just gone favourite.

Will probably live to regret whichever decision i make!

I'd stick with your man Berdy if I were you Tom !!

Berdy played a fantastic set. . Come on Berdy keep it up.

Is Fed carrying an injury; the commentators were mentioning how he talked to the trainer at the end of the first set. Something to do with his hip

Brilliant game there from Fed to get the break

Federer has been touching his hip during quite a few of his inside-out FHs. Just a niggle, perhaps.

Fight Berdy. Bad call.

Great hold from Fed after facing BP

Berdy is yet to lose a set.

The pressure seems to be getting to Bird; his first serve % has plummeted.

And now an ace to save BP

Federer's movement is completely lethargic. Does he really want to fight to win here?

Yep he doesnt seem to be moving well. Very static, just teeing off.

Reminds me of the Tipsy-Djoko match.

TB?

Bird breaks back, not looking good for Fed

Berdych's to lose, IMO.

Looking that way

Would have taken 15/2 if I'd seen it.
Was also frustrated that I wanted to bet on Federer to win the tournament after seeing the court speed and his form against Raonic, but by the time I got round to it, Nadal and Djokovic were gone, so I didn't bother.
If I'd got the bet on Federer for sure I would have looked for the lay and certainly taken it at 15/2 . Ugh.

It's been a good run to the Final for both of them (and not the finalists we would have expected ) but Berdych just too strong today in all the key moments

Strange turn of events. 2 SPs for Federer!

Poor Berdy DF on set point

Berdych.

... and Federer serves first.

Oops ........ hold the front page

OMG, Fed fights back! Fed really has to make it tense!

Rusedski: 'Whoever can get the early break will have the advantage.'

'Berdych needs to play a little better so that he can play better'

Pearls of wisdom.

I have 2 of the set scores so far...

I'm watching on the worst stream possible. The only way I can tell who's who is from the colour of the shirts.

At least I can see the ball. Thank you Tiriac.

Oh minions, I, emancipator, fortold that Roger would win in three tight sets, at least one of which will go to a tie breaker.



emancipator

Berdy's level is so hot/cold. I feel sorry for Tom___.

emancipator wrote:I'm watching on the worst stream possible. The only way I can tell who's who is from the colour of the shirts.

At least I can see the ball. Thank you Tiriac.

Tiriac be given the keys to Madrid

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

emancipator wrote:I'm watching on the worst stream possible. The only way I can tell who's who is from the colour of the shirts.

At least I can see the ball. Thank you Tiriac.

Tiriac be given the keys to Madrid

Tiriac for president





















of Real Madrid

Another tough hold for Fed

Old Fed does seem to still have it in him to make others nervy - even the seasoned campaigners