Madrid Final

First topic message reminder :

Hello, welcome to the final.

Federer vs Berdych

Head to Head:

10-4 (Federer)

Current ranking:

3-7 (Federer)

ATP Points Race:

2,865 (Federer)
1,545 (Berdych)

2012 Win/Loss

26-3 (Federer)
22-6 (Berdych)

Good luck, and play fair!

bogbrush wrote:Yes he can catch him. Nole has to fall before the semis and Federer win it.

Rome coming off tomorrow just means Fed will be closer tomorrow than otherwise.

EDIT: if Madrid came off the other day you're right. Are you certain about that?

I'm basing by calculation on the ATP website. It could be wrong I suppose...

BUT if the Rome points don't come off tomorrow, then Nadal would still be #2.

touch(A)parabola wrote:Lets see how fresh Fed is going to be for Rome. Otherwise my dead grandma can win tournaments if she plays every second one.
............................................................................

Rather bizarre comment. Have I missed something ? Has the old man Federer been slacking or not playing his fair share of tournies ?

Activity stats for the Top Four, 2012 to date :

Djokovic : Played 6 Tourns ; W/L matches 26-4 ; Titles 2

Nadal : Played 7 tourns ; W/L matches 28-4 ; Titles 2

Federer : Played 7 tourns ; W/L matches 27-3 ; Titles 4

Murray: Played 7 tourns ; W/L matches 21-6 ; Titles 1

zaron wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Yes he can catch him. Nole has to fall before the semis and Federer win it.

Rome coming off tomorrow just means Fed will be closer tomorrow than otherwise.

EDIT: if Madrid came off the other day you're right. Are you certain about that?

I'm basing by calculation on the ATP website. It could be wrong I suppose...

BUT if the Rome points don't come off tomorrow, then Nadal would still be #2.

I bow to your superior knowledge!

http://live-tennis.eu/

This person who maintains this seems to understand the ATP rules very well. Federer's ranking change has no bearing on Rome anyway.

Good link laverfan

Assuming all figures given are 100% accurate (and I'm certainly not looking to cast doubt ... !!) then it's a great way to keep abreast of things.

Agree and I've also posted that link a few times on here. We could with it as a sticky on here.

Lags72/Lydian... Let me check and see if I can create a sticky.

laverfan wrote:http://live-tennis.eu/

This person who maintains this seems to understand the ATP rules very well. Federer's ranking change has no bearing on Rome anyway.

Bookmarked! Thanks!!

Having watched some highlights of the final, I have to say that Berdych could easily have won. His groundstrokes were brutal at times.
What's happening this year is that Fed is fighting hard and finding ways to win close matches in a way that he has not always been able to/ wanted to in the past.
This season the Bellucci and Raonic matches spring to mind in this respect. I think perhaps last year he would have lost those two matches. There were a number of times that he had match points in matches and still did not get over the line. If it's tight this year he is still coming out on top.
As some posters have said, though, these are not close, GS five-setters against Djoko or Rafa. So it remains to be seen whether Fed can do the business in a big Slam match.

sfp - I'm pretty much with you on this, especially the issue of whether Federer can scrap and battle his way - almost in street-fighter Jimmy Connors mode - to these sort of steely wins he's been racking up of late, BUT in a Slam over 5 sets against Rafa or Novak.

Personally I doubt it. He has been able to do so in the past of course and has even hung with Novak as recently as USO 2011, having broken his amazing streak at RG. But Father Time is inevitably catching up with old Fed, and with these two guys still at their peak I feel it will prove a bridge too far.

I think that's a somewhat pessimistic assessment lags72. Fed's won 4 finals this year so far (all the finals he's been in) and in two of them, both Nadal and Djokovic were in the tournaments and Nadal lost to him in one and in the other, Djokovic didn't even make the final (lost a close match). Grand slam Bo5 matches are a different matter and Fed's recent performance suggests that unlike last year, he would close out the win against Djokovic in the USO if they met again this year. The evidence of this year's performance suggests that. Talking about Father time catching up with Fed isn't support by any performance evidence this year. In fact you'd have a decent case for making that last year prior to the USO. I can understand where you're coming from, Fed hasn't played Djokovic this year and until he does, and he beats him, many people will remain unconvinced, so I hope in many ways Fed does get to the semis in Rome (if he takes part) but it's actually in Fed's interest to lose to Djokovic in that match (and remain @ #2 and be seeded #2 for RG should Novak beat Rafa) unless Fed thinks he can beat Rafa in a Rome final (which even I doubt).

Ok, very fair points sfp.

It was only my view of course and I'm not claiming it's necessarily the correct one. And I certainly would never say it to Federer's face !

Agreed that the acid test would be versus Novak in a key SF.

As for the eventual winner in Rome .... Rafa's record there over the years is such that I am convinced he will regain his title. Even the bookies are only offering 8/11 (Novak a much more generous 5/2)

Luciusman. First, we're not sure if Fed will even play in Rome. Second I don't think he's gonna want to lose any match deliberately. What if he loses then Rafa beats Djoko anyway? Personally, I reckon Fed won't reach the semis.

There is a chance he might miss it, he has missed it once before (2005). I don't think Fed, or any of the top players would throw away matches deliberately, least of all Fed. His record @ Rome is the worst out of all of the Masters 1000 tournaments (matches win rate is 65%). Assuming he plays (not a given), his current form and confidence is high, reaching the semis is what you'd expect. That's exactly where he got to in 2009 (he also won Madrid too). He could stumble @ the quarters but from what I've seen, he's got a rather good draw so the odds are in his favour of progressing far. If he's approaching the old Fed who was winning so much, I'd expect to reach the final (but not even I expect that). However, even though it's Rome, I'd expect a semi final appearance (going on his current form). Maybe he'll surprise you (should he enter)...?

Lets put it this way, if he misses Rome then the injury must be significant because Rome gives 2 benefits...easy points upgrade from 2011, proper clay experience before RG.

lydian wrote:Lets put it this way, if he misses Rome then the injury must be significant because Rome gives 2 benefits...easy points upgrade from 2011, proper clay experience before RG.

I can't find anything about an injury online - what is your source?

I hope that the fact he is waiting a day or so to make his mind up means that he has good grounds for not believing it's that significant.

Watching the match yesterday barry...Fed asked for a painkiller for a hip injury at a change of ends, and you could see him subtly feeling his hip a couple of times, I also thought he didnt run quite as far outwide afterwards. But it may be nothing...if he enters Rome then it must be something he can shake off quickly.

@Lydian, I see - I'd agree with you that if he plays he's satisfied that there's no chance of exacerbation of whatever niggle he may have. He's never done that before and there's no reason to start now.

If that court has damaged Federers hip then I will be really mad...

Yep Barry, Federer is almost amazingly injury free...but he is getting older. The injuries will start to appear more as Father Time has a habit of making you a little less elastic and anything can just 'pop' like that...as I know all too well from playing 2-3 hours yesterday on HC

Murray was the naughty boy for withdrawing even before a ball was struck.

It was - after all - his turn to start the unique winners sequence* all over again.

Admittedly it wasn't clay when Andy won back in 2008. But who knows .... he might have liked that blue stuff !!

*Here's that sequence again in case any of you missed it first time round in my original post :

Right folks, the time has come. I know just how anxiously you’ve all been waiting so I mustn’t keep you in suspense any longer.

I said that there is a unique sequence of events associated with Madrid which sets it apart from any other Masters event – and, quite possibly, ANY other ATP tournament.

(Oh dear, by using the word ‘unique’ I sure will have one helluva lot of on my face if I’m proven wrong.)

And the answer is ………..

The past four winners at Madrid mirror precisely the order of the current top four rankings :

Champion 2011 : Novak Djokovic, Ranked 1

Champion 2010 : Rafael Nadal, Ranked 2

Champion 2009 : Roger Federer, Ranked 3

Champion 2008 : Andy Murray, Ranked 4