Where does the final leave us now?

As Rome is completed we are left with much changing and much staying the same. It seems that those who predicted the early demise of Nadal's dominance were mistaken. Unfortunately, due to the change of time in the schedule i was only able to watch the last 5 minutes of the match so I don't have that accurate a gauge on Nadal's play. However he has looked to be rejuvenated and primed for a defense of his Roland Garros title. Nadal is most certainly on the upswing.

For Djokovic the picture is much more mixed. There is no more denying it, he hasn't looked at his best, but he has been good enough to have a reasonably steady number of results that still give him the pole position for securing the number 1 ranking. Yet, for Djokovic to contemplate a victory in RG and a Nole slam he will have to up his level significantly. Now it is Novak looking at a 2 match losing streak to his nearest rival. To me he has not been as consistent and as authoritative with his forehand this year as compared to last year. When he hits it well it is still fearsome, but there seems to be more days this year where his forehand will go off the reservation.

For Federer, well Roger is sitting pretty as usual. His game is in tact and he has to feel good about his chances to get another bite at a slam. He has been the model of stability while at the same time lacking in my mind the ability to beat his two younger rivals enough to make a real move to the number 1 ranking. Still if a draw even half way opens up at a slam giving Roger the opportunity of only playing one of the top 2 on his way to a title then Roger could very well win number 17 this year.

And lastly for Murray, Andy seems to be the one who has unfortunately not had the best clay court season and has to be scratching his head a bit. He has never been a great clay courter and he didn't have a great season this year. He doesn't seem to have been able to build any momentum from a strong australian open.

Going into Roland Garros I see only two players with real shots at the title. The number 1 favorite as decided by today's encounter is clearly Nadal. The all time clay king seems primed to defend his slam. The second favorite Novak Djokovic. Hasn't played his best but he is the only guy that can legitimately still beat Nadal on a real non-blue clay court. I really thought this FO would be wide open. But really Murray and Federer haven't shown me that they have much of a chance against Nadal, and Nadal's resurgence really cuts down the chances of the field.

I'd put Novak and Rafa pretty close together, with Roger not far behind but behind all the same. For sure it's a big win for Rafa and he might be slight favourite now, but I wouldn't put much in it at all. I expect them two to be in the final, barring a surprise.

For Murray, I didn't expect as good a clay season as last year anyway and it's been that way. The fact he has this back injury too means he should really be almost discounted as a RG threat. Movement is too important for Murray and he is clearly restricted right now. Even fully functional I would have said semis was ambitious and as good as he could hope for, but right now I would say quarters would be great for him. Maybe even that is asking too much. He's only EVER beaten 1 top ten player on clay, this is not his surface.

I didn't watch today's game as was at work, but I'd be interested to know where the game was won and lost. Was Rafa more aggressive than normal against Rafa, or was it a case of same old Nadal but to a high level and Novak unable to match it?

Fair article socal...I'm not sure where it leaves us other than Nadal's confidence goes up, Novak's goes down. At least with MC he could say he had otehr factors weighing him down...today, well it just didnt happen did it. Which is all the more surprising given the manner of his result against Federer. That said Roger didnt turn up until late 2nd set.

I still put Novak as 40% chance for RG, Nadal 50%, Roger 10%...dont see any others capable of winning the title against these 3.

But its whats going on inside Novaks mind we dont know. You feel the weight of the monster he created last year is starting to weigh him down. Yes he can play great tennis but how well can he carry expectation of constantly winning...we know without doubt that Nadal and Federer can do this as they've shown over the past 8-10 seasons between them. What we dont know is how well can Novak sustain a run over a long period. I think its too hard to be anymore definitive than that...there is a question mark there now but its not damning...he still has the great shot at 4 in a row, to defend SW19 and USO...clearly if he goes through the next 3 slams (and Olympics) without a title then big questions are rightly going to be asked but until them I dont think we can say much more than the weight of expectation (self and others) may becoming a burden to carry.

It was a good match. Couple of breaks and close games. One missed FH showed the agony and ecstasy that Djokovic goes through playing Nadal. IIRC, the point was replayed. Also reminds me of the missed drop shot at RG 2011 which would have given Federer the first set.

8-in-a-row-MC and 6-in-a-row-Rome Nadal has shown that he can grind through the opposition methodically and win titles.

He played aggressive when needed, came to net, hit some very good FHs and broke Djokovic to win the match. The match article can provide additional insight.

Whatever ails Djokovic must be exorcised before RG, otherwise he is primed for a potential upset at RG. Bps 1/7 Djokovic, Nadal 4/7, and points won 67 (Djokovic) and 76 (Nadal), a pretty close match.

W and USO may perhaps be a bit easier for Djokovic compared to RG.

laverfan wrote:6-in-a-row-Rome Nadal

Hey? Novak won last year and 2008....

That Djokovic has improved since the last time he met Nadal.

That Federer is in good form but doubts remain when he plays the top two.

That Murray should focus on Wimbledon.

lydian wrote:

laverfan wrote:6-in-a-row-Rome Nadal

Hey? Novak won last year and 2008....

Should have said 6-titles-in-Rome.

Well Socal, I said it before too, this Nole cannot stop Rafa in Rome, the only person who would have had a chance to stop Rafa was Rafa's bunny Roger.

What the final leaves now is a clear cut message that Novak unable to sustain at the top and already feeling the pressure, he gonna lose his no.1 ranking sooner or later to one of the legends.

Thats why they Fedal are called Legends and Novak not yet.

No worries, thought that was what you must have meant.
You have to think these clay event records (MC, Barcelona, Rome...maybe RG) will hold for a long long time...

lydian wrote:No worries, thought that was what you must have meant.
You have to think these clay event records (MC, Barcelona, Rome...maybe RG) will hold for a long long time...

The BenchMark what Rafa set on Clay is very scary, 8 consecutive title on one event,MY GOODness, I am not even sure whether he lost a match so far in MC [I think not]. While Novak had a brilliant season in 2011 he kept the momentum going, and for once got into Rafa's head and that costed some defeats, but this year Nole was dumb to play MC and ended up giving the confidence back to Rafa and we all know what kinda beast Rafa is when he gets his confidence back.

Sorry to say , but tough road ahead for Nole from here on, the best way is to beat Rafa on RG to dent his confidence if he misses that, I am not sure Nole could ever dominate Rafa again.

I did say I believed after MC that Nole would see a different Rafa across the net from the 2011 version and he did. I think Rafa will have had his confidence boosted further after that match today. The two have had a bit of a roller coaster ride what with the blue clay the delay and on/off match for today. But I do think that Rafa has a very good chance of defending his RG crown and I think it may have dented Nole´s hopes more than a little. Rafa is back at No.2. exactly where he wanted to be at this stage.

TotallY disagree invisiblecoolers, the match today was so much closer than scoreline suggested. Djokovic had so many break chances and could so easily have taken 1st set. He has won the only slam this year and a masters title in Miami. Also has reached two clay finals. He is certainly still number one, we all know nadal is best on clay but it would not surprise me much if Novak did win the french. Only player I can see threatening nadal

But isn´t that the way it works or am I missing something... no good having break points if you dont break. Thats how matches are won and lost and more to the point it shows you just how good Rafa´s defence was.

Quite. How many break points did Nadal save in Rome this year?

Just watched it. Very good quality. Nadal defended great and found great length with his defensive shots. He also hit quite aggressively when he was able to. A good all round performance from him, he looked in great touch and full of energy. Great signs for RG.

Djokovic played to a high level as well, was just unable to finish points off due to a combination of his execution being slightly off and Nadal's refusal to give up. These 2 are miles ahead of the field for RG. The only thing that might stop them meeting is if Fed is in Djokovic's half.

This article I think sums it up IMO


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1190370-rafael-nadal-responds-fearlessly-to-win-italian-open

I don't think it leaves any questions un-answered. I just watched the final and Djokovic is showing signs of being human. The BH let him down badily today. Nadal it wasn't his best performance, but he done what he does best and that is hanging in there on every point. Nadal stuttered in Madrid. Djokovic has had matters close to his heart to deal with recently. Federer if anything for me is looking quite the danger going into RG. Yes there will be questions asked if he can go the distance with Nadal or Djokovic over a BO5, but the main thing is if he can string the consistent performances together then the results shall follow. Andy Murray, well his season is damaged limitations. I think he should be thinking towards the Grass and American hardcourt season. Andy has had a poor clay season and conerns for me is that it follows him into the 2nd half of the season.

Great article Social

The "complete" hold that Djokovic was able to assert over Nadal in 2011, is gone. Not to say anything particular of what's going to happen in head to head matches, just that I think that cloud of doubt in Nadal's head has disappeared. It was a close 2 set match and as pointed out by many, it could have gone the other way in that first set with perhaps a one shot difference - but I think the most important thing is that Nadal is MENTALLY back, and out of his doldrum of 2011.

No doubt the two of them are the "higher" favourites (if one can use that term) for RG, but Federer as always is capable of beating both, should he hit a purple patch at the right time, not expend too large an amount of energy in long 4 or 5 set matches.

Murray, not out of it with his cc results at all, physically - but the mental part becomes only harder without a "backing" of good results, and solid play, leading up to RG.

Of course, there's always the possibility of an upset that opens a part of the draw, would be fascinating to see who could, or might, take advantage of such a scenario, should it occur.

But it's good to see the Top 2 in the game, battling it out in the big finals, with Federer lurking there to spring a possible surprise. One week to go...

To be honest Last year Djoko played amazingly consistent aggressive tennis - its virtually impossible to continue that way for a huge period, we are just seeing a return to normal. Nadals game allows him to hit the ball further inside the court while still being effective and so his game can be played at an incredibly consistent level (that said, his unique incredible mental fortitude allows him to do so). Therefore i would expect that if Nadal can play his best then he will have a chance to beat Djoko and he has taken these well the last two matches - and to be honest the AUS open final was a much closer match than many of the previous encounters. The difference for me is that the BPs save stat has reappeared strongly for Nadal and has always been characteristic of his mental strength when facing the highest pressure. Saving BP after BP demoralises the opponent if nothing else. Therefore Nadal has to have added to his likelihood of winning RG. For me for Fed to win he would have to benefit from playing a tired Nadal or Djoko, if the two had a titanic SF together.

Also I still think one of the matches of 2011 was Murray vs Djoko in the Rome SF

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/Match-Facts-Pop-Up.aspx?t=416&y=2011&r=6&p=D643

- its was certainly also right in Djoko's purple patch - such an incredibly balanced match. For me outside slams it was probably the best match of the whole year in terms of quality and competitiveness.

Murray's SF vs Djoko at AUs was also great this year, so i maintain my stance that Murrays game is a good matchup for Djoko (maybe due to Murray's quirky variety stopping Djoko finding ultimate rythm). Anyway where i'm going with this is that at RG, if Murray were to magically be uninjured and fit and be in Djoko's half, i for one will take keen interest in that match and not count chickens early. The said i would not be surprised like many of you to see Murray fall before the SF.

I was a bit worried by Djokovics body language and emotions during the match.

His unusual bad temper when he had to reply a point because of a wrong line call. His smashed raquets (more than 1?). The one he smashed against the net post and nearly hit a ball girl and made Nadal pause and watch whilst changing ends in particular. His shaking of his head.

Admittedly he was flummoxed by Nadals tactics but it didn't look good for the future... And then at the end he was impressive. Mentally despite defeat he looked as if he was able to brush it off. It was as if a switch went off once the match was over and he looked as if he would be able to put this particular match behind him.

Being able to lose well is perhaps an underestimated ability.

"No doubt the two of them are the "higher" favourites (if one can use that term) for RG, but Federer as always is capable of beating both, should he hit a purple patch at the right time, not expend too large an amount of energy in long 4 or 5 set matches."

The thing is tho for Fed that he really has never shown the ability to beat Nadal consistently over 5 sets. After all these years, as far as i can tell its 10-3 to Nadal over 5 sets and only once has Federer taken Nadal to 5 on clay (Rome way back in 06). At the FO Fed has never taken Nadal beyond 4 sets. So i can't really see proper evidence to say he is capable of beating Nadal over 5 sets on clay, whether playing his best or not. The determining factor is Nadal rather than Fed.

I think many (@ least Fed fans and myself included) would like to think Fed could beat Nadal @ RG (if he can keep his composure and convert more of those many break points he gets). However, the issue is that he doesn't. As Tom points out and as someone else pointed out, this isn't just with Federer alone and when you look @ Federer, it is a consistent habit he has when he plays Nadal.

I've said it before, but will repeat it again, he converted just 1 break point in the Wimbledon Final 2008, but he had 13 chances, a few more and he would have won. Again last year @ the French, exactly the same break point chances as Nadal. Difference? Nadal converted 2 more compared to Fed and that's why he won. Perhaps Nadal is exceptionally good @ defending break points on his serve or perhaps Federer is poor @ taking them. After all, he certainly gets many more than other players do. The pattern holds the same for the Aussie Open 2009, Fed converts one break point less. That's usually the difference between the two in these matches Fed typically loses, Nadal converts 1 or 2 break points more.

I'm glad to see you're a bit more balanced now Djokovic has lost socal. A good thread btw, I think where today leaves the players is somewhat different for Djokovic and Nadal. For Fed, little has changed. He very well may get Djokovic in the semis but he's got the ability to beat him. Djokovic's chances of taking on Nadal on clay over 5 sets seems rather a bridge too far, even for him. We already know that Federer can push Nadal more than most players on a slower surface like @ RG and he may well do. Whether he can make a break through is really subject to doubt. Final wise, it will be Djokovic/Federer vs Nadal. I'd personally say Federer vs Nadal, they already been in 4 finals together (more than @ Wimbledon) and there doesn't seem there's many players to challenge them on clay (with the possible exception of Djokovic).

"Nadal converts 1 or 2 break points more."
In other words a little tougher mentally when it matters.
If Nadal plays Federer at RG he probably has an 80% chance, and that's factoring in Federer's recent form and recent win against Rafa in their last meeting.

Henman Bill wrote:"Nadal converts 1 or 2 break points more."
In other words a little tougher mentally when it matters.
If Nadal plays Federer at RG he probably has an 80% chance, and that's factoring in Federer's recent form and recent win against Rafa in their last meeting.

I'd probably agree with that assessment, or perhaps Nadal wants it more? He has won less than Federer, perhaps could be an alternative explanation? Certainly in the very close finals of Wimbledon '08 and Aussie Open '09 where in the former, just 5 points or so separate them and in the latter where Fed actually wins a point more, those break points converted are vital to deciding the winner.

It is difficult to argue against saying Nadal is 80% certain to beat Federer in a final (@ RG), although I would be intrigued to see how things would plan out if Fed could push it to 5 sets. Many of us will remember what happened when Nadal pushed Fed into 5 sets @ the Aussie Open '09, even though Fed had just won the the 4th set and evened things up, mentally Federer folded, that's the only way to account for a 6-2 scoreline in the final set. Exactly the same happened with Fed @ the USO later that year. I wouldnt suggest that Nadal would fold in a 5th set if pushed to it @ RG by Federer (should it happen) but I do feel that it would be interesting to see how it plays out. Nadal may very well win it, but it's not something we ever seen.

It was a poor match, but a win a win, nadal forehand was off, going 4 2 much power, Novak had is chances, but had Gomes finishing in champion league final, poor.

Looking 4ward 2 French open, can Nadal retain his slam, or will Novak hold all 4, or will Roger roll out the magic, or will thee outsider, Tommy B suprize us all, good times ahead.

slashermcguirk wrote:TotallY disagree invisiblecoolers, the match today was so much closer than scoreline suggested. Djokovic had so many break chances and could so easily have taken 1st set. He has won the only slam this year and a masters title in Miami. Also has reached two clay finals. He is certainly still number one, we all know nadal is best on clay but it would not surprise me much if Novak did win the french. Only player I can see threatening nadal

Well several Roger's match with Rafa was close, but Rafa always finished them, this is the similar case on Rome final too, Nadal loves close wins more than thrashings, the man enjoys pressure more than tame games.

Djoko will see the wrong part of Rafa in every game unless he dents Rafa confidence back with some solid wins specially in RG.

I think if djokovic can find a way to the final of the French, the desire and reward of completing career slam will be so high. What more motivation could Novak have than completing the slam and beating rafa in the final. Nadal will be favourite but I reckon it would be some spectacle and really hope it happens

S-mcGuirk. Well I think you've got one of the finalists right. But I'm not sure that Djkoko will even make the final. If people want to make money on the RG winner they should get it on now when Rafa is still evens rather than odds on.

Before the clay season started my money would have firmly been on Rafael Nadal for the French Open and I have seen nothing since to make me change my mind. It is up to Federer and Djoko to squabble for the big points for getting to the final in my opinion.

CalCr - can you see anyone outside the big four making the final ? For me, del Po has been a bit of a disappointment this season. I say "a bit" as he has had some good results but he is still - after all these months - not the force he was in 2009.
Ferrer is good on clay but can't seem to beat Rafa or Rog. Not only are the non-top 4 guys not getting close to winning the big tourneys, but they are finding it hard even to make semis when all the big boys are playing.

No for me the final will be between Nadal and either Federer or Djokovic. If I was to tip an outsider to reach the final I'd perhaps go for Tomas Berdych.

slashermcguirk wrote:I think if djokovic can find a way to the final of the French, the desire and reward of completing career slam will be so high. What more motivation could Novak have than completing the slam and beating rafa in the final. Nadal will be favourite but I reckon it would be some spectacle and really hope it happens

It would be a spectacle to see Nadal/Djoko reach the final because history would be made whoever wins

This is a very interesting article written in March prior to both Rafa´s wins at MC and in Rome-

I think it makes interesting reading.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1120243-rafael-nadal-8-reasons-hes-still-invincible-at-the-french-open#/articles/1120243-rafael-nadal-8-reasons-hes-still-invincible-at-the-french-open/page/9

invisiblecoolers wrote:Well Socal, I said it before too, this Nole cannot stop Rafa in Rome, the only person who would have had a chance to stop Rafa was Rafa's bunny Roger.

What the final leaves now is a clear cut message that Novak unable to sustain at the top and already feeling the pressure, he gonna lose his no.1 ranking sooner or later to one of the legends.

Thats why they Fedal are called Legends and Novak not yet.

I think you are underestimating Novak but events will show which one of us is right. Novak has something like 35 matches against Fedal, he has proven himself for years now in the crucible of the toughest competition. I still believe he has a lot of his best tennis left this year and that when he brings it like he did in that first set against Fed that it will be enough to handle anything thrown at him. It was always going to be a tough ask to win so many majors in a row.

PS IC I hate to inform you but Novak with 5 slams and all he has accomplished pretty much already has attained a large legacy in this game he does not fear, or feel like he has to take a back seat to either of the two annointed ones.

luciusmann wrote:I think many (@ least Fed fans and myself included) would like to think Fed could beat Nadal @ RG (if he can keep his composure and convert more of those many break points he gets). However, the issue is that he doesn't. As Tom points out and as someone else pointed out, this isn't just with Federer alone and when you look @ Federer, it is a consistent habit he has when he plays Nadal.

I've said it before, but will repeat it again, he converted just 1 break point in the Wimbledon Final 2008, but he had 13 chances, a few more and he would have won. Again last year @ the French, exactly the same break point chances as Nadal. Difference? Nadal converted 2 more compared to Fed and that's why he won. Perhaps Nadal is exceptionally good @ defending break points on his serve or perhaps Federer is poor @ taking them. After all, he certainly gets many more than other players do. The pattern holds the same for the Aussie Open 2009, Fed converts one break point less. That's usually the difference between the two in these matches Fed typically loses, Nadal converts 1 or 2 break points more.

I'm glad to see you're a bit more balanced now Djokovic has lost socal. A good thread btw, I think where today leaves the players is somewhat different for Djokovic and Nadal. For Fed, little has changed. He very well may get Djokovic in the semis but he's got the ability to beat him. Djokovic's chances of taking on Nadal on clay over 5 sets seems rather a bridge too far, even for him. We already know that Federer can push Nadal more than most players on a slower surface like @ RG and he may well do. Whether he can make a break through is really subject to doubt. Final wise, it will be Djokovic/Federer vs Nadal. I'd personally say Federer vs Nadal, they already been in 4 finals together (more than @ Wimbledon) and there doesn't seem there's many players to challenge them on clay (with the possible exception of Djokovic).

Lucius, a good post, however i disagree in that you seem to infer that I am not usually this balanced and fair. I am always balanced, when you disagree with me then all of a sudden I become unbalanced? Either way, I disagree with the opinion that federer really has a chance at the RG. I don't see him winning his 17th slam there. Last year he played the best I have ever seen him play on clay and he lost to Nadal in 4 routine sets. I don't think his backhand will hold up against nadal or frankly Djokovic in lengthy exchanges. He struggles on clay against the heavy ball high to his backhand and both guys ability to run everything down. Also both players return Roger really well on clay. He may have a chance against Novak, but I don't see him being anything but a sacrificial lamb to Nadal on a real clay court.

invisiblecoolers wrote:Well Socal, I said it before too, this Nole cannot stop Rafa in Rome, the only person who would have had a chance to stop Rafa was Rafa's bunny Roger.

What the final leaves now is a clear cut message that Novak unable to sustain at the top and already feeling the pressure, he gonna lose his no.1 ranking sooner or later to one of the legends.

Thats why they Fedal are called Legends and Novak not yet.

Disagree. I think Novak's 2011 achievements have assured him legendary status even if he never wins another slam... Which incidentally is about as likely as me winning Wimbledon!

There is still a sheet of paper between Rafa and Nole right now on this surface in my opinion. With 2 straight victories you'd have to edge Rafa, but not by much. I think for once we won't see the big 4 in the semis due to Murray's back injury, average form and the fact that he's not great on clay, and I agree with Craig that - draw depending - this might open the door slightly for Berdych. He looks the most likely threat to the 3 main RG contenders.

I would certainly agree the chances of Federer winning his 17th slam beating Nadal @ RG are slim. I wouldn't suggest otherwise. However, if Fed's chances are slim, then other players' chances are non-existent! I would say that probably includes Djokovic. His two losses on clay to Nadal underlines that. Maybe it'll change, but given how close they were @ the Aussie Open on a slow hardcourt, I think the overall trend confirms that on clay, with an even slower surface, in both his encounters, he's lost in straight sets. He didn't even push Nadal to 3 sets!

You're over estimating Djokovic on the basis of 1 win (against Federer). The clay court record between the two, even including Saturday's win still stands @ 4-2 to Federer. I'm not saying you're unbalanced because I disagree with you, you're assertions over the w/e were along the lines that Djokovic had next to no issues! I countered and said I may very well agree with that line if Djokovic retains Rome (in which case his record of defending titles this year has been decent). However, another final, and another loss. Nor would I get carried away with Djokovic's win against Fed @ Rome. Last year at the same point as this year, Djokovic had beaten Fed 3 times, yes 3 times already. This year he's beaten Fed once and bear in mind, the only time Fed had lost to Djokovic on clay was in Rome, on the exact same court, so if Djokovic was going to beat Fed, it was going to be there. Also, having watched the entire match, anyone else will also tell you, Federer only showed up late in the second set, far too late to win a best of 3 sets match. Djokovic had little to do except in the the tie breaker and that was enough to win him the match!

My view was that if you look @ the record so far this year, it reveals another story. Let me illustrate:

Aussie Open: WON
IW: Lost
Miami: WON
Monte Carlo: Lost
Serbia: -
Madrid: Lost
Rome: Lost

Now Rome is complete, let's take away the tournaments Djokovic didn't participate in last year, Monte Carlo, leaving 6 tournaments. Out of 6, he's held 2 titles. The Aussie Open is clearly very important. However, next in importance, one may argue, is Rome, this was where his most convincing win against Nadal came, and this time it's Nadal who's won in straight sets. Judging by recent results, Federer may have little chance (but has some chance) against Nadal, but Djokovic has virtually none. Unless of course Djokovic is inspired, but the same can also be said of Federer!

Disagree with you luciusmann, first of all important to get the facts right. Federer and Djokovic have met on clay 5 times, Federer leads 3-2 and not 4-2.

Also, the match between nadal and djokovic in Rome was really close. It may have been straight sets but that does not tell the whole story. Novak had numerous chances to break (Granted he didnt) but you could tell at certain points that Nadal was struggling with Novak's game. Djokovic just wasnt as sharp as usual with his final shot. In the event they both make the final of French open which I hope they do and if Novak brings his A game, i can see him causing nadal a lot of problems.

He will surely take more advantage of his break points and with the motivating of claiming the career slam and getting four slams in a row, the hunger will be so great. I really believe that novak can pull this off, the big question of course is whether they both actually make the final, stranger things have happened.

I fancy Berdych to do very well, have been very impressed with his game the past while and he is a real danger man in the draw.

Djokovic committed a staggering number of unforced errors in Rome finals. But it need not necessarily be the barometer to gauge what his chances are in French Open. Nadal played his usual consistency game, to play one more shot, waiting for errors from the other quarter. If he had forced Djokovic into errors, his level of play could definitely be said to be higher. It could be that Djokovic has set his eyes higher, something that Federer used to do previously and Nadal did post-2009 injury and 2010-comeback. Perhaps Madrid result for these both originated from the same concern. Djokovic can raise his level of play in G.S major. Federer used to do this and therefore, not much is read into Andy’s positive H2H against him. Nadal and Andy have to play 100% to grind out matches. Djokovic therefore can be said to stand on par with Nadal as favourite for the French Open notwithstanding his loss at Rome.

I wouldnt read too much into Masters which are Bo3 format...they give Nadal a boost no doubt. We need to see where they are when it comes to slams...my only thought though as just posted elsewhere was that it seemed Novak was less willing to get into extended ralleys with Nadal. He had to be in supreme condition last year to beat Nadal...is it something he can maintain, and are those battles something he wants to put himself through each time. So my take home from the final is that I wonder if Novak has mentally shrunk back a little from the physical challenge that Nadal presents...he's seen Nadal play stronger this year and he must know that if Nadal is better than 2011 then he has one heck of a battle on his hands come slam-time again. Its all conjecture though...we'll only see what impact its all had when they go Bo5 again.

Im somewhat baffled Lydian and I think Im on the same wavelength as you (correct me if Im wrong) as to why there should be any more expectation this year that Novak should beat Nadal than there was last year. Rafa had taken a bit of a drubbing from Novak last year and Novak was on a roll.. yet he still could not beat Rafa at R.G. Now Rafa has beaten Novak in two masters on clay this year there seems to be the feeling that Novak can take RG (Im not saying he cant you understand) but what is making it seem more likely that Novak can win this unless it is because he would hold all 4 GS´s- and therefore give him the extra urge to win it. I am of the opinion that would add extra pressure to Novak.. and hand the extra will to win to Rafa in order to stop him.
Am I being naive ???

I agree HN (except that of course Rafa didnt play Novak at RG last year...Fed saw to that). I think there's a few interesting dynamics at play:

1. Huge pressure on Novak to win 4 in row...from himself and the media who will be asking him this all the time when he arrives in Paris.
2. He's simply not as confident as 2011...has lost to a few players already this year and losing defence of quite a few titles
3. Pressure of being #1 is mounting...breaking racquets against the netpost (and beforehand too) is a sign of mental frustration and pressure
4. He's seen a resurgence of Nadal...a player he know he has to push himself almost beyond exhaustion to beat...you need 100% mental and physical strenth to do that
5. As you say, Nadal will be motivated to beat Djokovic like no other time at RG if they meet...he wont want Novak taking 4 in a row as he had the chance himself once upon a time (AO11).

It'll be interesting to see how the weather shapes up in Paris (hot conditions vs cold/damp) and if those Babolat balls are as fast as last year (which most of the top players complained about and for me caused Nadal a huge issue vs Isner).

Thank you Lydian informative as always

slashermcguirk wrote:Disagree with you luciusmann, first of all important to get the facts right. Federer and Djokovic have met on clay 5 times, Federer leads 3-2 and not 4-2.

Also, the match between nadal and djokovic in Rome was really close. It may have been straight sets but that does not tell the whole story. Novak had numerous chances to break (Granted he didnt) but you could tell at certain points that Nadal was struggling with Novak's game. Djokovic just wasnt as sharp as usual with his final shot. In the event they both make the final of French open which I hope they do and if Novak brings his A game, i can see him causing nadal a lot of problems.

He will surely take more advantage of his break points and with the motivating of claiming the career slam and getting four slams in a row, the hunger will be so great. I really believe that novak can pull this off, the big question of course is whether they both actually make the final, stranger things have happened.

I fancy Berdych to do very well, have been very impressed with his game the past while and he is a real danger man in the draw.

I stand corrected on one minor detail. The rest of my facts are correct so you're point doesn't change the overall dynamic, Fed still leads the H2H on clay with Novak. Both Novak's wins came @ Rome, he's never beaten Fed anywhere else on clay, and that includes in Bo5 sets too.

Look, you sound rather like many Nadal fans last year who were clutching at straws. Oh Djokovic won't beat Nadal more than once. Then he does. He won't beat him on clay. Then he does. He won't beat him @ Rome where the altitude is with sea level. The he does. He won't beat him in a grand slam. Then he does. You may wish to ignore the fact that Djokovic has lost twice to Rafa on clay, but this is important, because RG is on clay. Djokovic beat Nadal many times last year, but then, it included clay. If this was last year, sure, I'd say Djokovic would have a good chance to have won, but this is 2012, and as others have pointed out, Djokovic is far from invincible. That's what his record so far this year on clay suggests, he may very well win, but he will have to perform far above what he has.

Again, the point about this unquantifiable 'hunger' motivating Djokovic is more hog wash. The same could have been said of Federer doing the same (more than once) or Nadal. But let's see what happens when Djokovic has immense pressure and high expectations, like last year when he had the opportunity to make the record books too and win 40+ matches in a row? He lost. Yes, lost, against one of the top 3 players who no one was expecting to win yet any many had written off as a has been. Djokovic didn't break any records by winning Wimbledon or the USO (@ least not any records worthy of particular note), no doubt the pressure was high but the pressure was equally high in that semi final with Federer and crucially a record was on the line and he flummocked it. These are the facts which you aren't addressing. Another record is on the line if he's aiming to get to the French Open final, the same 2 players will have competed in all the 4 major finals. This adds to the pressure of making it 4 in a row. Given, as lydian has pointed out, that Djokovic is back in the old habit of trashing tennis rackets, it's not difficult to surmise the pressure will be immense and it won't be any easier when records could be made. Also, don't assume he will take advantage of break points against Nadal, if he hasn't so far on clay, there's a good chance he won't if they meet again. Don't forget, Nadal has won RG 6 times and he knows how to win, Djokovic hasn't even been to the final. That's not a barrier in itself, but Nadal had lost to many other players @ other grand slams, but this isn't particularly true @ RG.

Don't get me wrong, if it's a Djokovic Vs Nadal in the final, I'd be support Djokovic, however I remain far from convinced in regards to their record this year and how they been playing to think Djokovic will win. Many Djokovic fans have been heralding his win over Federer last Saturday, which anyone who watched will testify, Federer only started playing well too late. That was very obvious. Djokovic in the final in Rome on the other hand was playing well from the beginning but wasn't taking his chances, big difference. Even including Djokovic's win, the overall H2H for Djokovic against his main rivals this year stands at 2-2. Last year, same point? 7-0. I think that's correct, but you may correct me if I'm wrong. But the difference is stark, Djokovic isn't in the same ascendancy as last year and this diminishes his chances of taking RG.

I do agree with you in many ways. I definitely agree that Nadal is favourite to win, would be crazy to say otherwise.

However I feel Novak is closer to beating him on clay than perhaps the actual scorelines from past two matches indicate. Novak needs to be far more patient and he also needs to take advantage of his opportunities, he was taking his chances better last year. I dont really see a big drop in his performance, just seems a little more impatient in his play at times.

The fact is he has actually had a really good year, won Australian Open and Miami and has reached two clay court finals out of 3 tournaments. Just a shame that everything is compared to 2011 which was a simply unbelievable and exceptional year.

It does look like rafa will probably claim another French Open but I remain hopeful that Novak can pull it off but only if he brings his absolute A game. He knows what he has to do but just needs to bring his top level.

Really hoping for that rafa novak final.

I see where you're coming from, although take it from a Fed fan who was hoping for a different result in last year's RG final and looked like Federer might clinch the first set and even beat Nadal: Rafa @ RG is a hard proposition, a beast (no less), even for a player like Novak, who can tame him 7 times in a row!

I agree, there's probably not a lot that separates them between who wins and loses, but I have seen the same pattern with Fed/Nadal final matches. I don't want to suggest it's going the same way, because I still believe that Nadal can be defeated more comfortably on grass and fast hard court by Djokovic (hence why I think I would have Djokovic favourite @ Wimbledon and slight favourite @ the USO).

Djokovic's year has been okay, however, the defense of titles not as good. Winning the Aussie Open was vital and it's mainly that win which means he'll stay No.1 until after Wimbledon or the Olympics @ least now. Getting to those finals has helped keep his points tally decent too despite growing pressure from Federer (Nadal's stayed static in comparison).

Overall, I am excited about RG and the semi final matches, there is that feeling which RG and Wimbledon have, which other grand slams don't have, maybe it's the better weather here in Europe (or rather London) that explains it, or something else. Beyond the semi finals, it would be nice to see a different winner from Nadal and it's also a shame we didn't see Federer/Nadal match on clay prior to RG. In fact it's the first time they haven't met each other on clay prior to RG since 2004. So interesting to see if this affects them (i.e. helps Federer) should they meet.

Good posts by all enjoyed reading them although on some finer points I have to disagree. I think it is very fair based on nadal's two wins in the masters to have him as the number 1 favorite. I disagree with lucius that Roger has a strong chance at this tournament. I think if I was going to handicap this thing it would be something like. Nadal 60 percent Djoko 30 percent and field 10 percent. I know that sounds staggering but barring some unusual circumstance or injury there is only going to be one of two guys lifting the trophy on sunday, or monday if your bloody european weather has anything to say about it.

I didn't see the final in Rome because of said crappy european weather so I am at a little bit of a loss to gauge what Novak's true level was. He hasn't defended and played as well as last year I think that is for sure, but I think that he will be able to dial in his game enough times this year to hold on to the number 1 ranking. Rome was a bad loss that would have been a huge win for him, much more so than Madrid or MC because of the circumstances surrounding the match.

That being said lucius I still see Novak as being the favorite in the race for #1 based on his ability to play well on all the surfaces and the fact that while he has not had a great track record in his defenses he has been pretty steady and has not lost before the semis this year. You have semi dubai, win in AO, semi IW (a match he lost while being broken once), he won miami, semi Madrid, final rome. It isn't 2011 pace but a big bright point that you aren't acknowledging is that he has had very good results while playing quite a bit off his best form. If he can find his best form for a couple of important streaks this year based on what he has already accomplished he should be just fine.

I think Roger's chances of a French Open title are almost next to zero. He hasnt beaten Djokovic or Nadal in a Major final since USO 2007(!) - and he's likely to have to get through both of them to win the title.

In terms of the race for #1...alot of it depends on how well Djokovic defends his points from here on in. If Nadal wins 2 Majors from the next 3 (I dont have Federer down as winning any of them) then I have him as favourite for year end #1 given he has few points in the autumn to defend (and know Djokovic doesnt either). I also think the Olympics will be a bigger distraction for Djokovic and Federer given Nadal has won gold before.
The otehr factor is that if Djokovic doesnt win RG (loss of 4 in a row) and fails to defend Wimbledon, you wonder where he'll then be mentally....in that scenario I could see Nadal becoming YE#1 and Federer #2.

But there are some many variables over the enxt 2-3 months and so much tennis to be played...going to be fascinating. Rich times for us tennis fans!