Will Wales' performance in Oz affect their Lions chances disproportionately??

All the Home Nations (and Ireland if need be) are touring down south this June. Next year is a Lions tour, which just so happens to be in Australia.

Now normally in a Lions touring year you would say 6N form early in the year has more to do with selection than the previous year's autumn internationals (or even further back). But let me put forward two scenarios to you and then comment on whether would have more of an effect on Lions selection.

First scenario: Lo and behold, manna or bread of heaven, Wales win the series in Australia. It doesn't have to be a 3-0 whitewash but that would be even compelling perhaps. Does stacking your team with proven players who have won on Aussie turf weigh more heavily than 6N form?

Second scenario: Lo and behold, Wales have a Barry Crocker of a tour and lose every match and heavily. Do the Welsh players then become inadvertently tainted with the stench of defeat and thus appear much less attractive as touring Lions because they are more mentally fragile. Or conversely is their humiliation seen as a perverse way to inspire them to a much better performance as they want to make amends for that humiliation.

Should this tour to Australia be seen in a different light is what I'm asking? Or should players simply be picked on how they perform in next year's 6N and for club rugby to have no bearing on selection?

In all honesty Kia The Lions will probably be Wales with the odd Irishman and a Samoan so it won't make much difference, oh and that Grey fella from Scotland.

Well Wales haven't the best record in the 6N after they win a 6N so that can change very quickly Ruby. What you're saying seems more or less the case right now.

Kia - dig deeper - The GS of 2005 was a bit of a one off where we won with headless chicken rugby - it wont happen again with organised defences - In 2008 we were very solid and had a great platform developing. In 2009 we had key injuries that affected our ability to compete and only in 2011 did we get the platform back along with some much needed strength in depth. What I'm saying is that this is a very solid and relatively young welsh team with some very good depth to it as illustarted in winning the GS in 2012. There will not therefore be a boom and bust as people are rightly but naively assuming. The past is the past Kia and when you look at the facts and the reasons it has little relevance to the future, even though some like to think so

Of course I was being flippant with the odd Irishman and Samoan, however I think we need theright blend for the Lions and players like Kearney, Grey and Tuilagi are great options and will be in the mix to say the least

True enough but injuries can strike to young and old and whilst I certainly don't hope that to be the case, it is possible what happened in 2009 repeats itself on the injury front.

But do you think this tour Rugby has extra significance because the Lions play in Australia next year?

Kia, you are not reading my post or did not watch the 2012 6 Nations. Wales went to Ireland with 6-7 1st teamers out and won - it would have made all the difference in 2009.

To answer your question more specifically I don't see this as having much significance on one level as it is Wales (not the Lions) and they desperately want to win in Australia. Of course it will increase the likelihood that a good performance will lead to inclusion for the Lions however I really don't think that that is at the forefront of any players mind.

As you allude to in your previous post, a lot can happen in one year and Australia might do their homework on Wales which is very different to doing your homework on the Lions. Perhaps a better question would be - are the Autumn Internationals going to make a difference as they are nearer the time when the Lions are being considered.

The extra significance for me relates to what happens to the Australian psyche if Wales win the Test series - After losing to Wales how will they cope with the Lions? All hypothetical of course but this welsh team is far far superior than the last one that went there and lost the final test in injury time after Gareth Cooper offered them a try on a plate

Amazingly, back in 2009 we were all told that the Lions needed a majority of English players because they last won in SA in 1993 or something.

confused.com. So no matter what, we will be hearing the Lions lost a test match because there weren't enough England players...

I don't think there will be any disproportionate selection.

If we win in Australia (and that's a big if) I think the Lions coaches will use the Welsh contingent, particularly senior players, as examples in the squad. Having players who have experience of going somewhere and winning is always beneficial and every smart coach uses that.

Comeon guys, this is a ligitimate question Kia is asking.

Kia, if Wales does well, irrespective of winning or losing the test series in OZ, I think the deicidng factor will be the coach.

Now from what I understand Gatland will be the coach, if that is the case, chances are the welsh first 15 will be on the plane to Australia.

I think the squad that went to SA was around 38 or so players.

So you would expect most of the rest will come from English forwards, Irish backs with the odd, Gray, Denton and rennie from scotland.

I'm talking Ruby about from now until the 2013 6N - the great unknown apart from this year's 4N winner - and Wales did not win a Grand Slam last year. True Wales showed great composure and self belief that has previously eluded other recent Wales teams.

Your last question is a good one but one thing you can say about the Aussies is that they are experts at psychology. They are the best team in my opinion for minimising their weaknesses and accentuating their strengths, whether they are mental or physical.

Morgannwg wrote:Amazingly, back in 2009 we were all told that the Lions needed a majority of English players because they last won in SA in 1993 or something.

confused.com. So no matter what, we will be hearing the Lions lost a test match because there weren't enough England players...

I thought in 2009 it was all O'Gara's fault? And whoever the ref was who didn't send Burger off.

The Welsh 15 will probably be on the plane actually, possibly 16 if he takes Ryan Jones (which he will). I hope it's less though so Scotland get a fairer representation. They should have a fair few this time around.

Ok Kia - let's keep it simple - how players and teams for that matter play in the 6 Nations in 2013 will be the deciding factor on the Lions tour and not this welsh tour IMO - They may well be one of the same thing though as Wales have been installed as favourites for 2013 6 Nations.

In addition I disagree with you on the Australian psyche as the english and Irish and perhaps the Samoans have recently discovered. Wales need to get them on the backfoot and not give them an inch - they will get flustered but they have the talent out wide that will also back itself. It should be an intriguing series.

Kiwireddevil wrote:

Morgannwg wrote:Amazingly, back in 2009 we were all told that the Lions needed a majority of English players because they last won in SA in 1993 or something.

confused.com. So no matter what, we will be hearing the Lions lost a test match because there weren't enough England players...

I thought in 2009 it was all O'Gara's fault? And whoever the ref was who didn't send Burger off.

Oh yeah and not forgetting O'Garas moment of madness!

I'm not saying Ruby they can't lose games. All I'm saying is they are very good at turning round previous disappointments and don't really have a side where they have mental demons apart from the ABs and they are in good company.

If Australia were to play Ireland again soon, I'd bet your house on an Aussie win and your house would be pretty safe. I'd bet mine but I don't own one so that would be cheating!

16 Welshmen will make the tour - really.

No Welsh hooker is certain to go
I cant see Ryan Jones making it
In the backs Halfpenny is far from certain given the competition in the back three, same for Cuthbert.
Priestland isn't nailed on either
2nd row is a tough call

I do agree that if selected now Wales would have the biggest contingent and it would be in double figures but a lot of rugby between now and selection time.

It would unacceptable if Gatland does a 'Woodward' and show flagrant bias towards the team he coached/coaches

I'd be disappointed if we didn't win two of the four tests we've got against the Aussies this year. Two wins would be ideal, three excellent and four wins out of four would be the stuff of legends. By contrast one win, no matter where it's at, would be disappointing and four defeats disastrous. Some may disagree but when you're playing four tests close together against any side your realistic expectation should be to win at least one or two.

From a Lions perspective I see the Welsh tour as a preview, no more no less. Winning Down Under can only be a good sign, it'll show how to do it and the Lions will then be guaranteed some players who will travel down there without fear or doubt. Not only us but the Irish who overcame the Aussies next door just last year and the English who edged them away the year before that. That'd be three representative groups of players who know how to win Down Under and even Scotland who have managed a win against Oz in recent years. The only possible flaw then is that they'd fail to gel together.

From a Welsh perspective it's a chance to break the SH deadlock and make further progress moving on from the WC and GS. For me this takes priority over any other outlook but the fact remains that as I see it, only good things can come from winning the series whichever way you choose to see it.

geoff998rugby wrote:16 Welshmen will make the tour - really.

No Welsh hooker is certain to go
I cant see Ryan Jones making it
In the backs Halfpenny is far from certain given the competition in the back three, same for Cuthbert.
Priestland isn't nailed on either
2nd row is a tough call

I do agree that if selected now Wales would have the biggest contingent and it would be in double figures but a lot of rugby between now and selection time.

It would unacceptable if Gatland does a 'Woodward' and show flagrant bias towards the team he coached/coaches

If Gatland picks more Wales players than a side who wins a GS I will be most surprised.He is not a chuff like Woodward.If Wales beat Oz and win another 6N's,prepare yourself for a fair few Taffs making the cut!

Gatland will bring the best players available to him at the time ..based on more than one set of games. He'll surprise people by his choices and some of the players who get in will surprise themselves! Form goes off and form comes on...who is to say where that one will be when the time arrives.... oh and injuries.

I don't think Gatland will be navel gazing at his Welsh players, even if they do well in upcoming games - he knows how he gets them to the heights they reach and he knows he can do the same with outside players too or certainly believes he can - that's his selling point as a coach. Infact I think he'll be relishing the prospect of showing English, Irish and Scottish coaches how it should be done with a select bunch of their players. He'd love that - so let's not be too hasty with the 62 Welshmen and Grey

geoff998rugby wrote:16 Welshmen will make the tour - really.

No Welsh hooker is certain to go
I cant see Ryan Jones making it
In the backs Halfpenny is far from certain given the competition in the back three, same for Cuthbert.
Priestland isn't nailed on either
2nd row is a tough call

I do agree that if selected now Wales would have the biggest contingent and it would be in double figures but a lot of rugby between now and selection time.

It would unacceptable if Gatland does a 'Woodward' and show flagrant bias towards the team he coached/coaches

I think Rees will def go if fit
Also think R Jones and Halfpenny will go for their versatility
AWJ will go

Again all this is form and fitness permitting

geoff, we were speaking from the Lions selector perspective (or at least trying to), not our own. The best players will go but that is likely to include 16 welsh aswell because Gatland is Wales coach. Just the way it is likely to be bud. I hope the representation is fair and really hope France do not win the 6 Nations post Lions year.

Sorry completely disagree with the last 2 posts.

I'll happily debate positions if you want.
It is easy to say a particular player will go but for 16 Welshmen to go, and the party to be selected on ability/form, I reckon we would need a party of 45 or so.

Geoff, let's see your selections and who from the welsh squad do you think will not make it. Woodward by the way chose english ageing has beens so you cannot really compare that to Gatlands likely choices. Woodward also said after choosing his squad, "If I was picking the test team today it would be largely made up of Irish and welsh players with 1 or 2 scots and english" Of course it was a complete lie and he presided over the worse Lions debacle in history and still appraised it as a success. Let's have your players. I agree Kearney and perhaps Foden and Hogg even offer something different to 1/2 P, but 1/2 p's inclusion would not be that controversial given his versatility. I look forward to your names.

I think in the main I agree with the posters saying there could be a number of welshmen going, Halfpenny covers the whole back 3 equally well and kicks goal in high-pressure test situations to win things, Gatland will know this, what other back 3 option offers that? That Gatland would trust?

Again, Ryan Jones has been putting in MOM performances all season at 4/5/6/8 and did so in the Welsh GS winning team covering nearly all back 5 positions over the tournemtn to equally good performances.

Im not saying they'll definitely tour, or even that they necessarily should compared to the competition, but Gatland will know he can rely on these players and he'll have a relationship with them already, they'll know how he works and can help integrate others into squads/practises etc etc. - That whole deal.

Least thats what Im guessing they're getting at.

In relation to the original post, no Kia, I dont think it will have a disproportionate affect unless Wales come away whitewashed and absolutely embaressed to a man.

12 months is a long time in rugby… in 08 Shane Williams had the entire bok backline chasing his shadows… come 09 he was struggling for a bench spot.

The summer tours are important. You want to take players that can perform in the most difficult circumstances, i.e. away from home, in the SH and against better teams then your own. This is something that bar lions tours has been taken away from most NH players in recent years.

Too often the Lions have gone with untried players in the SH with disastrous effects… what they need is go to players, those who rise to the occasion and these tours are perfect from separating the wheat from the chaff.

Teams will also take confidence from perhaps even single victories… ENG victory in AUS last year set up their AI reasonable success and the 6N title. Large defeats could however cause players to lose form, confidence and even their places.

Sorry I think the onus is on the Welsh supporters claiming 16 will go to justify the claim.

Pick a position, lets agree the numbers, and then look at the alternatives.

16 suggests to me that ever marginal decision going will come down in favour of the Welsh player - in reality that wont be the case.

geoff998rugby wrote:Sorry I think the onus is on the Welsh supporters claiming 16 will go to justify the claim.

Pick a position, lets agree the numbers, and then look at the alternatives.

16 suggests to me that ever marginal decision going will come down in favour of the Welsh player - in reality that wont be the case.

Well 14 went back in 2009... Like we've already said it's just what Gatland is most likely to do. Not saying he will... What don't you understand exactly?

As I say, the Welsh Think they know Gatland..but I don't think they do. He has ghosts in his closet and internal battles of his own. He'd love especially to rub the IRFUs nose in it by picking underperforming Irish players, giving them the Gat's treatment and showing his old master's how it's done and what they missed out on by dropping him.

He's not bound by any loyalties to Wales. He wants to win the Lions series and he believes in HIS abilities rather than specifically the Welsh player's abilities (although I'm sure he has faith in many of them) - but he believes he has the ability to turn any group of players into a version of his Welsh side (he has to believe that, as I say, that's his calling card as a coach who has ambitions). I think he'll be out to prove points and those points might diappoint the Welsh-for-majority-stake club.

Nothing to do with understandings - I just dont think Wales will have 16 players on the tour party next year.

I would hope Gatland is above doing a 'Woodward' as I said earlier.

As other have said Wales are top of the pile at the moment and 16 is dubious even now.
Compared to other Nations in the Lions set up their status can only go one way.

No, I dont think the Wales players will be disproportionately favoured - Unless they are the form team at the time of selection!
Good performances from Irish individuals against NZ would do those guys no end of good. Similarly, stand out performances for English against SA would help for selection.

I think Gatland is pretty ruthless... he wants to win and he will tread on any egos to get there. Welsh, Irish, English or Scottish. But to be a winning coach sometimes you have to be just so.

I have to say that people slamming SCW is a little easy.... in the end he took a chance and it failed big time... but it had worked for him before so he was more than likely not going to mess to much with a proven working model.

If he had gone to form of those playing well in that years 6N they would have been smashed just as bad, perhaps worse. Had BOD played in the 1st test (where SCW chose mainly players he could trust) the points deficit would not have been as much as the 17 they lost by... and the first test was the closest match... compared to the one where he went to players of form and then got battered.

The AI after that lions tour NZ toured and put 40 points on the Welsh GS team, 40 points on IRE but only beat ENG by 4 with many of those trusted old players present... I was at the match and it was no walk over... and ENG could have easily won the match at the death as they had NZ camped on their own 5m line for the last 5 mins.

Geoff, what happens if wales win another grandslam and the ospreys blues fight it out for the HC final with a welsh region winning the Rabo? Wales come away from Oz with a series win and 3/4 of their AIs?

Still think theres only 1 way for their cards to go? Unlikely, but assuming the likely is going to happen is the antithesis of being a sports fan my friend.

geoff998rugby wrote:Nothing to do with understandings - I just dont think Wales will have 16 players on the tour party next year.

I would hope Gatland is above doing a 'Woodward' as I said earlier.

As other have said Wales are top of the pile at the moment and 16 is dubious even now.
Compared to other Nations in the Lions set up their status can only go one way.

Yeah and we 'think' Gatland 'may' look at taking 16 Welsh players. Not our decision. It's not up to us to explain his actions, only he can do that. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Yeah...it is a "Will he? Won't he" post...and I guess they're as pointless as those other posts that crop up from time to time...them "Won't he? Will he?" ones. Although the latter posts tend to have a better class of poster though

geoff998rugby wrote:Nothing to do with understandings - I just dont think Wales will have 16 players on the tour party next year.

I would hope Gatland is above doing a 'Woodward' as I said earlier.

As other have said Wales are top of the pile at the moment and 16 is dubious even now.
Compared to other Nations in the Lions set up their status can only go one way.

But if Gatland picked 16 Welsh players it would be on form, not just because they were Welsh or had won some or something a year or too before.

munkian wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Nothing to do with understandings - I just dont think Wales will have 16 players on the tour party next year.

I would hope Gatland is above doing a 'Woodward' as I said earlier.

As other have said Wales are top of the pile at the moment and 16 is dubious even now.
Compared to other Nations in the Lions set up their status can only go one way.

But if Gatland picked 16 Welsh players it would be on form, not just because they were Welsh or had won some or something a year or too before.

Have we had any indication of the number of players in the squad?

If 30 were going it's unlikely there'd be 16 Welshmen. If 50 go then I wouldn't be too surprised.

I think Gtaland is being treated unfairly on here for no reason other than jealousy. Wales are top in the NH at the moment but that can't change in 12 months. If there is a marginal decision to be made about players I would expect any coach to go with the one he knows best. That's common-sense not bias. You can't compare him with Woodward who chose out of form ageing players who were well past it. There are not many like that in the current welsh squad. A lot of bitterness on here yet again because Wales have a successful side. I still can't work that out after Ireland and England have enjoyed past success. Maybe its just a few posters.

Why are some folk so utterly desperate to have the largest touring contingent from their own nation? I'm not aware that there's any award for that happening.

think it will be a squad of 37-40. So 16 from the top performing nation at the time will be realistic. Depends given the difference between WAL, IRE and ENG are marginal.

This isn't the days of 01 when ENG were miles ahead of everyone else.

sugarNspikes wrote:Why are some folk so utterly desperate to have the largest touring contingent from their own nation? I'm not aware that there's any award for that happening.

Who's desperate for that?

BTW, speaking of awards I'm sure there is an award for Prize Plum somewhere. Perhaps you can enter that competition and come out on top?

sugarNspikes wrote:Why are some folk so utterly desperate to have the largest touring contingent from their own nation? I'm not aware that there's any award for that happening.

Sugar, i dont think it was meant that way until people started to attack others opinions on the welsh contingent and then they had to start defending their opinion and BOOM.

you only have to blink on here and before you know it its an england vs wales thread.

I dont think its unrealistic for a large number of welsh players to go, they are Gatlands team and gatland will know all of their capabilities. However, I'd be hoping IF a large number were to go, its down to form, merit and experience, not because they make Gatland laugh.

Dont forget people like Powell were taken last time as they were deemed to be excellant tourists for squad mentality and togetherness, not just for their (lack of) on-field skills.

RubyGuby wrote:I think Gtaland is being treated unfairly on here for no reason other than jealousy. Wales are top in the NH at the moment but that can't change in 12 months. If there is a marginal decision to be made about players I would expect any coach to go with the one he knows best. That's common-sense not bias. You can't compare him with Woodward who chose out of form ageing players who were well past it. There are not many like that in the current welsh squad. A lot of bitterness on here yet again because Wales have a successful side. I still can't work that out after Ireland and England have enjoyed past success. Maybe its just a few posters.

You're always such a rounded, well mannered,quite jovial and open Welsh follower normally Ruby....you can poke fun at yourself too even, which is always a good sign--- as long as the magnifying glass doesn't linger too long on a thing called the Welsh team.

Then the people who simply talk (or type) - for Yay, that is what 606 does best, is it not - are routed out by you as jealous Irish or English men who can't abide Welsh dominance in Europe. Well, whether we like it or not (I'm Irish so it's a natural I don't - is it bad to admit that? ) but whether we like it or not, we can't help but accept it - and I have, on numerous occasions. I said they were best side in Europe after the 6Nations itself. It's what they are - and I don't mind admitting truths. But forgive us all but we're also your European rivals... you have to get past our sides to get there, yes? Of course you do -and a mighty fine job of it you did this year. But as rivals, our job is to harbour desires to knock you off the perch - rather like all the 'lovely' comments coming Leinster's way post HC final. Rivals want you down and out - that's what the definition states.

Now that we got over that one - the 'jealousy' one - back to Gatland. Just because you want the majority of players to be Welsh because it will confirm Welsh European dominance, doesn't or shouldn't stop a few of us realistically (not jealously - realistically) suggesting there are a number of reasons why that might not be so. Live with the counter-views rather than just dismissing them as Irish and English jealousy. That's the lazy approach Ruby and it's beneath you

Fair enough, comfort. It's fans from all home nations that do it. Not at pop at Wales.

Morgannwg wrote:BTW, speaking of awards I'm sure there is an award for Prize Plum somewhere. Perhaps you can enter that competition and come out on top?

Grow up.

I'll repeat what I said earlier on this thread. If the coach is Gatland which from what I understand has been confirmed, then he will most likely take his first 15 Welsh players.

Why?

Becuase it is a natural tendency for coaches that steps up another level to do that as he knows what he has in those players, you can go down history and you will find that to be the case.

Don't look at the number 15, look at the importance of the fact that all or most of his first squad will go.

Then looking at the strengths of combinations and the respective home nations, he will most certainly consider the english pack, or at least the ones he rates highly, then he will look at Ireland and their back line players, an example is Kearney who is the best exponent of a high ball. That doesn't mean he won't look at english back or Irish forwards, but e will look at traditional strengths

Then he will look at the bright stars of scotland, like Rennie, Denton, Gray etc.

The last squad that toured SA was around 37 players.

So Expect very close to this kind of breakdown.

Wales 15
England 9
Ireland 8
Scotland 5

dude you've opened a can of worms here.... you can't say that ENG will have more tourists then Wales on a welsh dominated post.

england doesn't. they have 9, wales 15.

I hope we can all come back to this thread when the touring party is actually picked. We won't all be right - that's a certainty!

Therefore I'm the only one who up to this point knows I'm going to be still right

Not all of us will be right - that's my declaration, and I'm sticking with it.

I'll be cose enough.

Besides there is no money on it, is there?

Munkian a matter of opinion re number of Welshmen .

My guess, for what it is worth is:
Wales 12
Ireland 10
England 9
Scotland 4

+2 bolters who could be from anywhere
As others have said will be interesting to return in a years time.