Fed will become the No.1 if he win the Wimbledon

Just a bit curious I guess Fed will become the No.1 again if he wins the Wimbledon, considering 1600 points on stake for him and 800 points atleast to be lost by Djoko [if he makes finals and losses the title], but I guess unless Djoko losses before finals he might still hold on to the no.1 ranking even if Fed wins the title.

However for Rafa to become No.1 he has to win the title and expect Nole to lose before Quarters , can somebody put the exact scenario pls.

Just to make it interesting whats the chance for Murray to become the No.1 consider all the results go his way

If Fed wins Halle he needs Djokovic to exit in the semis.

Nadal needs Djokovic to lose in the quarters. If he enters Halle and wins, then the semis.

Basically, both Nadal and Fed need to win Halle, hope Djokovic loses in the semis and then win Wimbledon to take the No.1 spot.

You could put in the hard miles I think - in the meantime this is a helpful website showing the 'live' ranking http://live-tennis.eu/official_atp_ranking

If you choose the 5W ATP Ranking option http://live-tennis.eu/forecast_atp_ranking you can see the result of the Wimbledon points coming off.

The unknown is how many points Fed or Nadal may pick up at Halle, but it seems that if Nole makes the Wimbledon SF (720 points) neither Fed nor Nadal can go to No. 1 by winning Wimbledon unless they also have a batch of points from Halle in the bank - how many they need you can work out from the site.

Well this is closer than we all thought.

Well if it's that close then provided Federer has a good show (semis minimum) then he will have a Hell of a chance by Shanghai. He's hardly got much to defend from here until after that.

I wanna see him win the Wimbledon and put the pressure right back on Nole and Rafa.

If he wins it he's hot to get to #1 regardless, given the position in the following events.

The Olympics could throw a spanner in the works though, 750 points there. Not much differential though for finalist, semi etc.

bogbrush wrote:If he wins it he's hot to get to #1 regardless, given the position in the following events.

The Olympics could throw a spanner in the works though, 750 points there.

Olympics is the key, considering both Nole and Rafa played MC which is optional masters, Fed would gain points in Olympics where as these guys won't, coz it will be replaced with a masters or a 500 I guess with respect to points and hence Nole/Rafa will not gain anything from it where as Fed will.

Ironic isn't it, that we could have Federer return as #1 just as the obituaries are written.

I guess what's overlooked is how much Nadal and Djokovic take out of themselves, and how durable the Federer game is under pressure of age and length of season. Certainly the masterclass at the O2 should be a salutary lesson to anyone writing the great man off.

Another fortnight at the top and we an put those GOAT discussions to bed once and for all (if they're not already); for passing Pete, but most of all or topping peak Nadal and Djokovic in his twilight.

At this stage of his career I don't No1 really matters that much. He'd rather take another slam and stay ranked in the Top 4 so he avoids Rafa, Novak, Murray until the semi's.

erictheblueuk wrote:At this stage of his career I don't No1 really matters that much. He'd rather take another slam and stay ranked in the Top 4 so he avoids Rafa, Novak, Murray until the semi's.

His best route of actually getting to No.1 before the USO is via winning Wimbledon though. In all probability, he gets the No.1 spot as a bonus from winning Wimbledon or at least at some point soon after. In many respects, that's why I thought it was good Djokovic won the semis final with Fed @ RG because Fed's only real route now is via winning a slam or getting to the final of one whereas if he'd beaten Djokovic he could have got to No.1 without a slam.

luciusmann wrote:

erictheblueuk wrote:At this stage of his career I don't No1 really matters that much. He'd rather take another slam and stay ranked in the Top 4 so he avoids Rafa, Novak, Murray until the semi's.

His best route of actually getting to No.1 before the USO is via winning Wimbledon though. In all probability, he gets the No.1 spot as a bonus from winning Wimbledon or at least at some point soon after. In many respects, that's why I thought it was good Djokovic won the semis final with Fed @ RG because Fed's only real route now is via winning a slam or getting to the final of one whereas if he'd beaten Djokovic he could have got to No.1 without a slam.

Actually It would be nice if Fed gets to no.1 with a GS title under his belt, otherwise ATP will start to look like WTA, where the slam champs never become no.1 and no.1 don't win slams, luckily even that period is gone in WTA as well, so yes Tennis is healthy now.

I dont see Nadal entering Halle...he's not bothered about #1 ranking.

Nor is Fed I imagine but if Nadal doesn't enter Halle it gets very tight for him to retain #2 spot prior to the USO lydian.

Oh I imagine Fed is quite focused on #1...he just said at RG that its chasing records that keeps him motivated. This is a record in his grasp almost..and a key one at that.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

bogbrush wrote:If he wins it he's hot to get to #1 regardless, given the position in the following events.

The Olympics could throw a spanner in the works though, 750 points there.

Olympics is the key, considering both Nole and Rafa played MC which is optional masters, Fed would gain points in Olympics where as these guys won't, coz it will be replaced with a masters or a 500 I guess with respect to points and hence Nole/Rafa will not gain anything from it where as Fed will.

Yes and no. Bascially the top 3 can all gain roughly the same points at the Olympics, because with the new rules its the best 6 results in the 250+500 category that count (as long as a player has at least 4 500's, and they all will if they play the Olympics).

Djokovic has a free spot, so he gains whatever he earns at the Olympics.
For Nadal the Olympics replaces Doha (90points) or Halle (if he earns more than 90 there).
For Federer the Olympics replaces Davis cup (25 points) or Halle (if he earns more than 25 there).

At the end of the year (actually after Basel/Valencia), the 0 point penalties will likely drop off, so Nadal and Federer will also keep their Doha/Halle points.

One way the Olympics could be important is in the Wimbledon seeding for 2013. As its a grass court event it basically counts double points in the seeding. Thats 1500 for the win, 900 for 2nd, 680 for 3rd, 540 for 4th. So there is potential for significant point gaps.

Fed defends 630 points between now and the US Open, he is on 9310 points, so his base level is 8,680

Nadal defends 1,390 points between now and the US Open, he is on 10,060 points, so his base level is 8,670 points.

Therefore whoever gets the most points between now and the US Open will be No. 2 seed.

Opportunities are Wimbledon, Olympics, Canada, Cincinnati, and Halle

Nadal will be No. 2 seed at Wimbledon because of the beneficial weighting due to his being RUP and W the last two years compared to Fed being QF x2. I think Nadal is strong favourite to emerge from Wimbledon a few hundred points ahead of Fed even if the latter gets 250 from Halle. Barring injury Nadal is close to certain to get 1,200 points again there, possibly more. Fed has to make at least the Wimbledon SF, but if he makes the final his likely opponent is Nadal who would be strong favourite to beat him and collect 2,000 points to Fed's 1,200.

Therefore, how they fare at the Olympics and the two TMS is important. How the Olympics points would add on compared to what they both have for the 500/250's is complicated, but it looks as though Fed probably has to win one of the TMS on any likely scenario and hope that Nadal doesn't do better than a couple of QF's. That's possible of course, but it's far from a certainty - both Djoko and Murray have a habit of doing rather well at those tournaments in the US Open run-in.

Interesting times...

That's wrong, Fed got 720 for Wimbledon alone, and Rafa 1200.

Edit; oops, my apologies. You are correct.


What's Djokovic's base to USO?

It's 12280 - 3600 = 8680

Wow.

So since the USO it's been

1= Federer & Djokovic on 8680
3rd Nadal on 8670

That's weird.

Well weird.
This is going to be one tight race...

That is extraordinary. All to play for...

bogbrush wrote:So since the USO it's been

1= Federer & Djokovic on 8680
3rd Nadal on 8670

That's weird.

You mean since Cincinnati 2011, i.e. including the USO2011 points.

Yeah its real close, I was going to post this. So whoever performs the best (or 2nd best) in the next five tournaments (Halle-250, Wimbeldon-2000, Olympics-750, Canada-1000, Cincinatti-1000) will be #1 (or #2) at the USO.

And for those 5-6 events (inc USO), you have to say they're more suited to Federer than just about anyone else. So he must be #1 favourite, then Djoko, then Nadal.

It's Federer's to lose!

lydian wrote:And for those 5-6 events (inc USO), you have to say they're more suited to Federer than just about anyone else. So he must be #1 favourite, then Djoko, then Nadal.

It's Federer's to lose!

Please don't say that!

Don't you remember reason 3 of "Why Federer is so hard to watch"??!!

zaron wrote:

bogbrush wrote:So since the USO it's been

1= Federer & Djokovic on 8680
3rd Nadal on 8670

That's weird.

You mean since Cincinnati 2011, i.e. including the USO2011 points.

Yeah its real close, I was going to post this. So whoever performs the best (or 2nd best) in the next five tournaments (Halle-250, Wimbeldon-2000, Olympics-750, Canada-1000, Cincinatti-1000) will be #1 (or #2) at the USO.

Yes of course, so a smidgen better for Federer after that.

lydian wrote:And for those 5-6 events (inc USO), you have to say they're more suited to Federer than just about anyone else. So he must be #1 favourite, then Djoko, then Nadal.

It's Federer's to lose!

I think the 3 key tournaments that will influence who gets the No.2 spot would be Wimbledon, Cinci and Canada. Over these 3 tournaments the top three defend:

Djokovic: 3, 600
Nadal: 1, 390
Fed: 630

For Fed to overtake Nadal he needs 750 and if he gets the same number of points as Nadal did last year, he pips Nadal to No.2 by 10 points. A semi @ Canada and a final @ Cinci would give him a net 690 overall so very close. Ideally winning Cinci or Canada offers Fed the best hope of taking it but otherwise, decent performances @ Cinci and Canada and a semi @ Wimbledon will be enough.

One question i have is who out of the top 3 would you say if most at risk of losing in Wimbers before the SF stage?

For me a slippage of this sort by any of the three could propel the number one spot decisively in the direction of another of the three. Federer has lost ground at the FO and so his job is now a little bit harder from my point of view. Much of it depends on injuries and ultimately how much Djoko or Nadal care about gathering points. I believe in all probability that NAdal and Djoko are likely to want to get some rest after the Olympics in order to prepare for the run in to the USO or recover from some kind of injuries rather than chase #1. I think this will give Fed his opportunity as he has much to gain at Canada and Cinci. Maybe Murray will have some say in what happens ultimately

Tom_____ wrote:One question i have is who out of the top 3 would you say if most at risk of losing in Wimbers before the SF stage?

Federer. I find all this talk about him getting to No.1 a bit bonkers. Let's be frank here and remind oursleves that Roger gained some of his points (Paris / O2) simply because at least one of his two rivals (for the title) was unfit or got an injury. Only in Dubai, would we say that here was a Roger that looked like a world No.1

His saving grace, could be the weather - which is expected to cheer up, towards the end of the month, meaning a faster Wimby than normal. But as someone pointed out isn't him winning one of the three biggies remaining this year, the important thing

The best thing to happen for Roger is Murray shining from no where, if Roger wins one tournament [one of the GS or 1 among the two masters] and Murray win the other two it still gonna help Federer up.

The best case is Wimbledon, win it hook or crook and expect Murray to win Rogers and Cincy he will do that , enjoy the no.1 ranking and battle between Nole and Rafa on super saturday while he books his trip for the finals. Its all in Fed's racket now, whether he gonna do it or goof it up only time will say.

banbrotam wrote:

Tom_____ wrote:One question i have is who out of the top 3 would you say if most at risk of losing in Wimbers before the SF stage?

Federer. I find all this talk about him getting to No.1 a bit bonkers. Let's be frank here and remind oursleves that Roger gained some of his points (Paris / O2) simply because at least one of his two rivals (for the title) was unfit or got an injury. Only in Dubai, would we say that here was a Roger that looked like a world No.1

His saving grace, could be the weather - which is expected to cheer up, towards the end of the month, meaning a faster Wimby than normal. But as someone pointed out isn't him winning one of the three biggies remaining this year, the important thing

I suppose the same thing happened at Indian Wells too?

As for gaining points at the O2 because others were injured, that's twaddle. Since when has Nadal ever troubled Federer indoors? Never in their career.

Over the last 10 months they are all square. You might as easily reference how, without points from the three Slams, Djokovic would be languishing because of his inconsistency. I wouldn't say that, it's not my opinion, but it makes about as much sense as your selective cutting of the points.

do you think Fed will play halle serious considering Nadal is playing Halle too.

How would Mr. Becker react, if Nadal wins the Wimbledon and Roger walks with Olympics, Rogers and Cincy to be in time for the no.1 spot by a player who didnt win a slam this year compared to a player who won a slam in 2 and win 2 slam to be in 3

Nole will win Wimbledon.

Stop daydreaming.

jersey wrote:Nole will win Wimbledon.

Stop daydreaming.

Nole is too busy celebrating his roland garros win.

Now that Nadal is out of Halle and Federer is in the SF we know that in order to be #1 after Wimbledon

Federer needs to win Wimbledon, and Djokovic loses in SF (or earlier)
Nadal needs to win Wimbledon, and Djokovic loses in QF (or earlier)
Djokovic needs to make the final of Wimbledon

jersey wrote:Nole will win Wimbledon.

Stop daydreaming.

We heard all that at Roland Garros.

What happened then?

jersey please just stop

zaron wrote:Now that Nadal is out of Halle and Federer is in the SF we know that in order to be #1 after Wimbledon

Federer needs to win Wimbledon, and Djokovic loses in SF (or earlier)
Nadal needs to win Wimbledon, and Djokovic loses in QF (or earlier)
Djokovic needs to make the final of Wimbledon

Out of those options c) seems most likely. For a) & b), there is more chance of Nadal winning than Fed but then equally more chance of Djokovic reaching the SF than falling @ the QF, so 50% chance of c) happening and 25% for a) & b) to me.

jersey wrote:Nole will win Wimbledon.

Stop daydreaming.

If I am a day dreamer what are you Jersey with your Nole predictions?

luciusmann wrote:

zaron wrote:Now that Nadal is out of Halle and Federer is in the SF we know that in order to be #1 after Wimbledon

Federer needs to win Wimbledon, and Djokovic loses in SF (or earlier)
Nadal needs to win Wimbledon, and Djokovic loses in QF (or earlier)
Djokovic needs to make the final of Wimbledon

Out of those options c) seems most likely. For a) & b), there is more chance of Nadal winning than Fed but then equally more chance of Djokovic reaching the SF than falling @ the QF, so 50% chance of c) happening and 25% for a) & b) to me.

I'd give less than 50% chance for c), basically because I don't think Djokovic will make the final now that he has come back down to earth from his 2011 form.

I don't think a) or b) are that likely either, but another Federer vs Djokovic semi at the Slams would keep a) and c) alive and make things interesting. Who would be the favorite? (I don't think they have ever played each other at Wimbledon - or on grass for that matter)

LuvSports! wrote:jersey please just stop

Don't worry Julius said Goldfish is banned

zaron wrote: I'd give less than 50% chance for c), basically because I don't think Djokovic will make the final now that he has come back down to earth from his 2011 form.

I don't think a) or b) are that likely either, but another Federer vs Djokovic semi at the Slams would keep a) and c) alive and make things interesting. Who would be the favorite? (I don't think they have ever played each other at Wimbledon - or on grass for that matter)

Interesting take on it. I'm going on recent form that Djokovic will make the final, after all, 4 straight grand slam finals (winning 3/4) is why he's World No.1.

I definitely agree that a Federer and Novak semi would be awesome because Fed would be in the position to knock Djokovic out and take the No.1 position if beats him and wins Wimbledon which gives it that extra edge, a bit like how Fed denied Djokovic the No.1 spot last year @ the French by beating him (denying him those extra points he needed). The great thing is that Djokovic isn't a big hitter so he couldn't blast Fed off court like Tsonga and Berdych did in the last 2 years. Definitely a match I'd love to see, but then again, Fed might be placed on Nadal's side of the draw?

We'll know the draw this time next week!

I saw somewhere where Fed gets 5 times the best to win the Wimbledon I see that as an decent offer, i won't mind to bet $20 on him and could pocket $100 if he indeed does.

Jamie Baker can make u a millionaire , he got 10k for 1 dollar if he wins the tournament, 100 quids on Jamie and if he wins u become a millionaire

The "live" rankings are that Nadal is down to 3rd, Fed is up to 2nd, and he's narrowed the gap to 1,205 behind Djoko.

http://live-tennis.eu/

Plenty to play for now, especially with Fed and Djokovic being in the same half.

A Federer win and he equals Sampras for both Wimbledon titles and weeks at no 1 (the latter of which presumably he breaks the following week regardless of any tournaments).

If Djoko were to lose his next match (unlikely, but what were the odds on Rosol against Nadal), and Fed lose the final, Djoko would stay top but by less than 200 points (if I'm understanding the live rankings table correctly). Basically, it looks like Djokovic has to do a good job defending his points from now to after the USO to hold off Federer at #1.