Wimbledon - I Have A Feeling

Well here we are halfway through the tennis season and the luscious green grass is now upon us. Queens is being decimated by the 'British' summer and I am looking to see how Andy fairs on the Grass.

Interestingly enough he has made the semi-finals in the last 3 Wimbledons. A record better than the top 3 which I find the more surprising.

I have this feeling. I think Andy could well make the final this year. Nadal and Djokovic for me come into Wimbledon slightly less physically able than previous years. 2012 has seen them taking lumps out of each other. In the GS Finals alone they have racked up nearly 10 hours against each other! Aside from the other 12 matches they played, that is some serious court time and that will surely hurt at some stage.

Look around. Federer, maybe. Knowing that he has not made the semi's since his last triumph in 2009. Over in Halle many will be keeping a keen eye on the Raonic/Federer encounter. Andy has a strong chance to retain at Queens with Tsonga being the only real threat in the draw.

For Andy you have to say that this marks a very big opportunity. With the Olympics this year, I think Djokovic, Nadal, Federer may have their eye swayed on that. If Andy can just up his game. Get those serves in. Crank the FH. If he can get those elements going, maybe just maybe we won't have to keep going on about Perry!

I think Andy could do it and actually go a step further and win. But he is probably a distant 4th favorite. The other guys who are probably favored over him all of have won this tournament. I think Andy probably wants to avoid Roger most of all at wimby because that is not going to be a good matchup where as I think he would feel he has a better chance against Novak or Nadal.

This is without doubt a great opportunity for Andy.

Unlike the mood of depression that can linger after his AO disappointments, he will have very quickly got over the loss to Ferrer at RG, and overall can take a lot from his performance in Paris. He will surely go to Wimbledon in good spirits and 100% motivated.

Once it gets to the business end then (these days) it's always Djokovic and Nadal who are going to be the biggest threats to anyone, at any of the Slams, regardless of surface. These guys are full of confidence in their ability, and - like all good champions in their prime - they absolutely hate losing.

As for Federer, still the all-time king of grass based on stats : I've said many times that I personally believe his Slam-winning days to be behind him. Age is against him, and seven Bo5 matches is just a step too far in today's ultra-physical conditions, although he'll most likely continue to prove a serious and frustrating obstacle for most lower-ranked hopefuls in the early rounds (as he just reminded many players once again in Paris). You'd have to go way back to 1975 to find a player older than Fed taking home the Wimbledon trophy. And I think we can safely say things on court were a little different then .....

lags72 wrote:You'd have to go way back to 1975 to find a player older than Fed taking home the Wimbledon trophy.

That's interesting - Ashe is one of only 2 players aged 30 or over to win Wimby in the Open era. Ashe was nearly 32. Laver, in 1969, was nearly 31.

If ever there was a case of a player winning a Slam by wit & clever tactics, there is no finer example than Arthur Ashe, Wimbledon 1975.

He slowed all the rallies and gave big-hitting Jimbo (who of course loved nothing more than a fast ball coming at him) absolutely no pace to work with. Connors, never one lacking in determination, effort & sheer guts was - for once - utterly bamboozled. And it was more the manner of Ashe's victory that made it so very special and genuinely unique, rather than the victory itself ......

I think for clever tactics, Ivanisevic in 2001 all day. You look at the players he defeated and I think to defeat a peak Henman and Rafter on grass and also defeating young power hitters in Roddick and Safin and the baseline grinder Moya. I think given his unpredictable nature and how much improvement he made on the baseline made it the more remarkable.

As much as I enjoyed watching Ashe defeat Connors, McEnroe defeat Borg and Connors defeat McEnroe, Goran for me went through quite a tough and varied field.

I think Rafa is coming into Wimbledon in much better order than he did last year - arguably in the best order since 2008.

He's in great shape, the Djokovic hoodoo is less pronounced (although they'll both remember his moments of panic on Sunday), his clay-court mastery is firmly re-established, he knows he has the solid beating on grass of 126 of the other players in the draw, he is in his favourite position of hunter not hunted, and with his 7th RG he has carved out his place in history which nobody can take from him whatever else happens - that should help to relax him.

For me Djoko's greatest danger lurks in the earlier rounds, and I consider it to be substantial, but if he gets through I'd have him as marginal favourite in the Final against Nadal and also against anyone else in the draw.

For me Andy's game rests too much on a knife edge for him to be able to tough out wins vs. two of the top 4 whilst his 2nd serve remains such a liability.

I rate Fed's chances as higher than Andy's, but way below both Djoko and Nadal, I don't think he can beat both of them so somebody else has to to take one of them out for him.

If either Rafa or Fed win Wimby this year, they will be the first male player to regain the title twice in the Open era.

I completely agree with LK. I said in another thread that I think Andy might make the final and I still believe that.

I know some were disappointed by Andy's performance on clay, but not me. I disassociate Andy's progress and slam winning potential with his clay form. He'll never be fully comfortable on clay and will never win the French.

On grass however, different proposition. His first serve is more effective, the weak second serve - whilst still a weakness - is less of a problem, and he moves far, far better on the stuff.

I hope he gets drawn in Novak's half. I think his game matches up pretty well to Novak's and that's why so many of their recent matches have gone right to the wire (with the exception of 1 straight forward win apiece recently).

I would be slightly less confident if he's drawn in Rafa's half as he's not managed to really push him in recent slam semis, but I still think he could take him. I'll stop short of saying this is the one he wins, but I really do think we will have a Brit in a Wimbledon final for the first time in a billion years!

I think he could take Nadal Danny. Last year if he wasn't so affected by the BP in the 2nd, then maybe that would've spawned a different outcome.

I agree he could LK, but I'd still rather he was drawn against Novak.

I think Berdych and Tsonga are 2 players that the top 4 will be desperate to avoid, particularly Andy... Although he seems less prone to be 'hit off the court' at Wimbledon, unlike the other slams.

I really fancy his chances if he can produce the form displayed in Australia, and be a bit braver with his opportunities when they come.

Let's not forget Del Potro (if the knee holds up .....). Could he slip in under the radar and maybe make the semis ?

Last year was his best showing, and Rafa needed two TB's to take him out in four pretty tight sets.

What's the difference between having a feeling and wishful thinking? I have a feeling that the Wimbledon final will be the long awaited re-match of the 2008 final.

Would the Queen attend if Murray made the final @ Wimbledon?

Well, she did for Virginia Wade.

In fact (IIRC...?) it was Her Majesty's first-ever appearance at SW19. Despite the privilege of instant, annual access to the best (or at least most comfy) seat in the house, she's never been a fan of the sport, by all accounts .......

So if he does make it, but you don't want to go Ma'am ....... can I have your pass please ?

I'm not too convinced that he's fully fit. But if the return of the good weather happens then there is a chance

I also do not fear him against Jo or Thomas at any Slam - other than the dirt

Still think Andy's best chance is The Olympics or US Open

Andy has the ability for sure. But grass is one of those surfaces that also ruthlessly exploits poor 2nd serving. He's going to have to serve out of a tree to get to the final because in a semi he's likely to meet excellent attacking returners.

In general...the top 4 are vulnerable to dangerous floaters and big hitters.
Raonic, Tomic (I think his game is well suited to grass and he pushed Djokovic for a while 12 mths ago...he's better now), Delpo and Berdych.

lydian - apols if you're already aware, but Tomic retired at Halle today when trailing 2-5 to Haas, first set, opening round. Not clear as to exact nature of injury.

Do hope he's in good shape come Wimbledon..... we need all the 'fresh' faces we can get - and for Wimbledon to revive its reputation as the breakthrough Slam (as in days of old .... )

hawkeye wrote:What's the difference between having a feeling and wishful thinking? I have a feeling that the Wimbledon final will be the long awaited re-match of the 2008 final.

Partly wishful thinking of course, but hardly an outrageous prediction! I thought he'd go out in the quarters at RG so I'm not devoid of realism. I honestly think he will make the final, especially if he goes back to his AO approach of being right up on the baseline and dictating more than he used to and being aggressive on the forehand.

Of course, he might not need to be that aggressive from round 1 but from the quarters onwards certainly.

hawkeye wrote:What's the difference between having a feeling and wishful thinking? I have a feeling that the Wimbledon final will be the long awaited re-match of the 2008 final.

Like the difference between 'bits' of articles and the full article?

luciusmann wrote:Would the Queen attend if Murray made the final @ Wimbledon?

If she did it would rip up any slim hope Murray has of winning the tournament. Muzza will have to be on his best behaviour and won't be able to shout, swear or act like a drama queen in front of Her Maj. This will certainly harm his game.

Murray loses to Mahut @Queens.

Yeah, not ideal. Did you watch it laverfan? what went wrong?

Well, that is an odd loss didn't see it what was the scoreline and what happened? I think Murray has to be dissappointed with losing that early. There is one guy everyone wants to avoid and I mean everyone Raonic. he is going to be virtually unbreakable at wimbeldon. He could put out any of the top if he serves big.

Socal it was 6/3, 6/7, 7/6

Of course, it's the first match on a new surface... But even so, Murray is so comfortable on grass I still thought he would have cruised it against a good but not great player.

Bizarre.

"Wimbledon - I Have A Feeling"

That Andy Murray will win Wimbledon without losing a set to get his hands on the coveted Challenger Trophy!

Danny_1982 wrote:Socal it was 6/3, 6/7, 7/6

Of course, it's the first match on a new surface... But even so, Murray is so comfortable on grass I still thought he would have cruised it against a good but not great player.

Bizarre.

Well I mean at least it was close. I don't know it seems to me that to some respects murray is stagnating as a player. It is odd because I have always viewed him as a very bright and technically gifted player. But if you look at Nadal he has made some changes to cope with Djokovic, you look at Djoko he has worked incessantly on improving and solidifying his game and the changes are being witnessed. Now I don't want to be accused of taking too much from the loss. However, at this point it does not seem like murray is growing as a player or has much over the last couple years. What is he doing better or differently? Still it is but one loss in a small tournament.

Here come the doom and gloom merchants again.

Face facts here folks it makes no odds whether Murray lost today or had gone on to win Queens. If he had won Queens (as has happened twice before) the feat would have been belittled by Hawkeye et al as being against a weak field and rendered irrelevant I am therefore not perturbed by the result. Three Wimbledon semis on the bounce tells me all I need to know. Disappointing of course today but in the grand scheme of things all that matters is what happend when it really matters in a few weeks time.

No craig, don't get me wrong I reference my point that Murray's winning or losing this event or match isn't that big a deal in the grand scheme of things. But I only referenced this match in the larger question of has Murray grown over the last couple of years it seems he has stagnated. It is fair to say that with a new coach we should at least give him till the end of wimby and the start of the hardcourts to see what happens. It just seems to me that Andy has been plagued by a lot of the same problems that keep recurring for him from the start of his career. Still yes he will be one of the favorites at wimby and dangerous in every tournament here on out. However, I would like to have seen him grow as much as the top two guys who are his age have grown or at least somewhat more comparitively.

Nole will win Wimbledon.

JuliusHMarx wrote:If either Rafa or Fed win Wimby this year, they will be the first male player to regain the title twice in the Open era.

Neither Nadal nor Federer will win Wimbledon.

Is this clown going to be banned?

It Must Be Love wrote:Is this clown going to be banned?

Quite possibly.

Excellent.

Murray will never win Wimbledon. Get real.

Rather than an outright ban perhaps a better solution would be to limit any further 'contributions' from said poster to a single thread, to which we could dip in if ever needing a bit of a laugh. And ignore at all other times.