The psychology of winning first up

This week it seems very few are giving the NH sides much chance of beating their SH counterparts. England and Wales have the best chance of getting an upset. And I agree. Debate over.

Sorry, sleep deprived. Damn mosquito buzzing in my ear last night and I could not for the life of me find the little son of a mosquito (or is it only the females who bite?). Have you ever noticed that whoever first draws sporting blood often follows up that performance with a below-par one. I'm not saying every time the winner of the first game loses the next one, but generally there is more motivation from the vanquished team. They tend to lift their performance and find many more areas of improvement than the other. It's very difficult to perform well and then say we still have a lot of room for improvement and then go out and do just that: find improvement.

So whilst I am not saying that all the NH teams are going to win this weekend, notably Ireland, I think many have been written off. When you read in the local media all week how rubbish you are it stings you into action. Look at France last year in the RWC final based on their pool game against NZ and their knockout games. In wendyball, often a team that goes up 1 - 0 ends up losing 2 -1 or the first to score in a penalty shootout often ends up losing. The fear of losing again has a way of getting the best out of you.

So if you NH fans are down in the dumps (none more so than the Irish lads who seem to think Angela Merkel is going to go round Ireland collecting sizeable amounts of money in person the way their current mood seems to be!), I expect to see a much improved performance this weekend and if you can improve and limit your opposition's chances, then you're in with a good shout. Chin up and lashings of ginger beer what not?

I agree, in any sports series where there are 3 games, winning the 1st always important. It get's you on the board and it means if you win the next game the series is over. If lose the next match, you know you as well as the other team obviously, have one more game in order to win the series.

You could also look at it the other way like you said. Wales will be chomping at the bit to put in a good performance against Oz after their pretty poor display last week. It gives you a chance to prove the doubters wrong and will encourage the players to push themselves to the limits in a must win game.

I still think Ireland have next to no chance winning in Christchurch this weekend, but, they can sure put in a better performance than last week. I think they faded away second half and they'll be looking for an 80min performance rather than the first 15.

England have a massive test at altitude but like Wales, they will be pumped to improve on last week in what is for them also a must win game. The fact so many are beaten at altitude will also spur them on to prove the doubters wrong.

So clearly, you right, the 1st test is almost a must win because it gives you momentum, but, a loss can also work in the losing teams favour if you like.

Good thread

I'm not sure how much SA will benefit from altitude compared to ENG. 11 of their 15 players live in either Cape Town or Durban and their bodies will be as used to altitude as the ENG team. They got together around the same time the ENG team touched down in SA also.

Perhaps the kickers will be more used to kicking in thinner air but thats about it IMO.

Personally I think it can be quite dangerous to be 1-0. You've won the first game great.... you may naturally become more relaxed but the other side will be desperate and will certainly throw the kitchen sink at you... can you raise your game to match this intensity?

Very few teams are good are keeping the level of intensity up... NZ are especially good at killing off sides, other than that I would say the 2nd test often favours the team which lost the 1st.

Whilst I agree completely with the OP I still think it's going to be three gutsy losses from the NH. Of course just imho. England to the death - perhaps a last penalty kick. Wales playing catch up like they do in practically all rugby matches but beginning to realise it doesn't quite work against the big 3 (even Oz.) Ireland the reverse - will be ahead just before half time.

Does that mean KickandChase you're predicting a Scotland win against Fiji?

WAgree completely kia. Extending this out it could result in wins for England and Wales and although not likely a win for Ireland but at worst a closer score and perhaps even a scare.

One reason for this i believe is expectations and desite to lift standards on behalf of the winners from the last match versus the raw motivation to win. To avenge. To avoid the same feelings of shame, pain. The motivations of the losing side is completely different. More real in terms of passion and determination.
Youll notice the winning coaches and fans talk about lifting accuracy, improvements in this area or things this or that player need to focus on. Not to be able to win...but win by more...more completely.

This is what makes winning dangerous. It removes the desperation to make the most of every moment.

Thats why i believe the closeness of last weeks matches...the fact that tonight means the series is over if they lose...that at least one of wales or england will win, assuming everything else..injuries etc are even.

Tonight must be the night of the underdog...if there is to be one on these tours.

Cant wait. Made the mistake of going to the club and watching last weeks match and largely missed the live matches of the other two.

Not tonight. Will be at home...and perhaps barking a little on these boards.

fa0019 wrote:I'm not sure how much SA will benefit from altitude compared to ENG. 11 of their 15 players live in either Cape Town or Durban and their bodies will be as used to altitude as the ENG team. They got together around the same time the ENG team touched down in SA also.

Perhaps the kickers will be more used to kicking in thinner air but thats about it IMO.

Personally I think it can be quite dangerous to be 1-0. You've won the first game great.... you may naturally become more relaxed but the other side will be desperate and will certainly throw the kitchen sink at you... can you raise your game to match this intensity?

Very few teams are good are keeping the level of intensity up... NZ are especially good at killing off sides, other than that I would say the 2nd test often favours the team which lost the 1st.

FA, Meyer said during the week that the Boks made many errors in the first test and they are only at 5% of where they have to be, so I am sure the enthusiasm and intensity will allow for better execution tomorrow.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Does that mean KickandChase you're predicting a Scotland win against Fiji?

An emphatic one.

If one cuts away the Bravure,the NH have come South in good heart.Wales 6N champs,England only dropping one game,and Ireland based on good H/C runs.
Given the SH short prep times,First up Psychologically was the time to strike.NZ especially won`t be happy with there overall performance.To many dropped balls,knock ons,turnovers/loss in tackles.Had they got it right the whole eighty
there was another 4 or 5 tries for the asking.BUT defensively they were really on blob.SA at altitude seldom lose,when you consider the narrowness of the victory they will be looking for better tomorrow.At least England look to have picked a team to attack rather than keep the score down.
Wales IF they get of to a decent start could shade this one but will be surprised if they do.Came back well last week but needed a good start.

Both England and Wales will be hoping to win tis week. Now my opinion is their best chance was last week. Ireland i am afraid dont have a chance against NZ. I would like to think that last week game for England and Wales to win.

Could Wales and England win this week, Yes why not. Will they win? Who know?

Last week showed that, England, Ireland, and Wales was not fit enough against SH teams.

Is that because of fitness, or is there something else?

I would like to say good luck to NH teams that are playing this week end.

I think its a circular arguement about the psychology of winning the first match. On one hand, the Southern teams had less prep and practice time. On the other hand the Northern teams are a long way from home, on different schedules, and are playing teams with great home support. Which is the bigger advantage? Does it impact the psychology of the players? The journalists promote this as critical because it sells, and that's their business.

My opinion about winning is simple. There is a match to play? Go win it. Full stop.
And to get to the top level I think most players feel the same.

But, teams do build confidence about beating other teams when it becomes frequent. Just enough to give that slender edge. Sometimes that's enough. Maybe that's how the Wallabies got past Wales the other day?

And, by the way, the England players won't know they are playing at altitude. Lancaster won't tell them so they will never know...........

Agree doc... I thinks its just the usual pre match nervous poster commentary...(is there a READ code for that doc?) going on here.

If I must choose... I think wales will get oz. Just but comfortable enough. SA are on an up in the same way as England are but at a slightly higher tangent. .

Close again but no cigar methinks...

doctor_grey wrote: And, by the way, the England players won't know they are playing at altitude. Lancaster won't tell them so they will never know...........

they'll probably figure it out when they start wheezing after 5 minutes of warmup.

I read it the same, mate. This is definitely not a settled England team. Getting better, but a ways to go. The Boks have more continuity and appear more solid. England could nip it, but will be difficult.

I think Wales are in pretty good shape to cop a win.

Your ABs, however, are going to be pushing 50 again, I think.

Biltongbek: They won't wheeze. Not allowed and they did not practice that. Frankly, they won't know how.

Did I tell you once about a coach I had years ago? I was completely gassed and he told me not to worry about breathing. Its only a concept. Play now. There is always time to breathe later.
Problem solved.

Yep, we had a similar philosophy when I did my national service, swallow now, chow later.

But then we also had the philosophy of hurry up and wait.

Doc, by the way, have you had your meeting yet?

doctor_grey wrote:I read it the same, mate. This is definitely not a settled England team. Getting better, but a ways to go. The Boks have more continuity and appear more solid. England could nip it, but will be difficult.

I think Wales are in pretty good shape to cop a win.

Your ABs, however, are going to be pushing 50 again, I think.

I'd be surprised. It's forecast to be cold and damp tonight. They have a more experienced side this week. I think the Irish will have improved their game. I expect that their kick and chase game will be better and that they'll be intelligent with their kicking. The same goes for the ruck. Lastly they've now had a game at NZ test speed.

I still expect NZ to win. I think the loss of key players from the Ireland side is a big obstacle on top of every thing else. I'm just going to be surprised if it's a 50 pt thrashing.

Well Wales and Ireland got oh so close but England seem to be finding it much tougher. Which won't exactly worry the former group!

Well as predicted looks like 3 gutsy losses , Scotland aside ... but wow Kia, you were totally right! Fantastic day of rugby this one!

Yeah a NH banner waving day of rugby Kick and Chase but there needs to be an owning up to why Wales and Ireland in particular didn't get the right result. But great to see such close hard fought rugby. From a neutral point of view, it's great for world rugby. Not so good for my blood pressure but I think everyone who watched those first two games in particular today would have come away thinking they had seen a real immense battle of rugby. SA look ominously hungry.

That said, still a lot to play for next week. There is no such thing as a dead rubber in rugby. Every victory counts for psychological points.

For me Ireland has done its lot. In my post above i predicted a scare from Ireland and potential win from either of the other two.

In the same vain the ABs wll learn more from this match than last week in that it was intensity NOT accuracy that was required and will be next week. And thats what Ireland learned. They were awesome. They were up in our faces and anyone who thinks BOD is past it is fooling themselves. His ability to suffocate the AB backline was the best ive seen from a NH side. A class act for sure.

I dont believe Ireland will back this up simply because theyre not as good a team as the ABs who will treat this as a loss in terms of motivation for next week.