The elusive 4th place in the IRB rankings come December.

4(5)  ENGLAND 83.09
5(7)  FRANCE 83.03
6(4) WALES 82.26


0.83 point separate the three teams currently in contention.
There is very little in it.

The autumn fixtures are:-

England vs New Zealand
England vs Australia
England vs South Africa

Wales vs Argentina
Wales vs New Zealand
Wales vs Australia

France v Australia
France v Argentina
France v Samoa


Who will come out on top?

france playing it safe for this Autumn, they are bargaining on the home unions to lose more rating points than gaining, so by remaining stationary, they are playing the odds.

Could bite them though.

Could well bite them. Though it worked well for them recently.

I think Wales has a better chance than England as it will be easier for them to win two matches.

France have only one game away to Argentina,is that right?If so I think Wales will get it but I won't be putting any money on it.

England will beat Aus and possibly SA.

Wales and France will both beat Argentina.

Looks like England then with the rankings places staying the same.

You sure that is an away game?

So many articles on this and I suppose they point to one depressing fact: we both want to be FOURTH!

For the record, I genuinely don't care.....I just hope we win the 6N's, the AI's and throw off our shackles and let our backs do their thang!

Says so in the fixtures list.

Why are the Welsh so obsessed with IRB rankings?

France are also playing Samoa and Aus, they could actually win all 3. Even if they just beat the Argies and Samoans that should let them overhaul Eng and leave them and Wales requiring 2 wins ... easier for Wales of course but tough all the same

Of course if Argentina could crash the party if they get a late win in the 4ns and win in europe.

So theres 4 teams who could do it. England will be hard pressed to hold on. if they do it by picking up wins over 2 of the 3 then even the Welsh may have to admit they deserve the spot finally. I doubt they will though.

France. Controversial perhaps given how flakey they are. But France.

To clarify Frances Fixtures are:


Sat 10 Australia tour France v Australia, Stade de France

Sat 17 Argentina tour France v Argentina

Sat 24 Samoa tour France v Samoa, Stade de France

Yeah, I had a feeling France had more games. Misleading OP!

sugarNspikes wrote:Yeah, I had a feeling France had more games. Misleading OP!

Why? Could just be an honest mistake

Cheers Peter

Amended above.

That makes it a bit more of a competition.

Ireland are also around the mix. Not as closely tied as the teams above. But around and abouts. Argentina and even the scots, with their abilities to beat SH teams, are in with a chance.

Ireland lost by 21 to england, their replacements crew lost to the babas (who england stuffed and wales beat), lost to nz by 32, then 3, then 60 points.

It would take something pretty remarkable to turn this aorund, the barbarians result suggests its not just a case of "pick the second string" but a fundamental malaise. However we have seen this from them ever since their GS. Results for the most part have been poor, but every once in a while they somehow function like the team they used to be...stuffing england in the slam game, beating aus at the world cup (then going back to turd), and to be fair pushing new zealand hard enough to make the try in the next game.
I still dont see them getting results good enough to overhaul France, Wales England and Argentina though. Statistically possible, but highly improbable.

biltongbek wrote:

sugarNspikes wrote:Yeah, I had a feeling France had more games. Misleading OP!

Why? Could just be an honest mistake

Eh? I didn't say it wasn't an honest mistake. It's just misleading (not necessarily intentionally so) in terms of the question asked and the games stated.

He's updated the OP now so all's cool

Looks like most think it'll stay as now with England keeping the spot.

maestegmafia wrote:The autumn fixtures are:-

England vs New Zealand
England vs Australia
England vs South Africa

Wales vs Argentina
Wales vs New Zealand
Wales vs Australia

France v Australia
France v Argentina
France v Samoa

Sorry boss but you Wales also have Samoa in the AIs too (between NZ and Australia). I think having the extra game should give us the extra chance of sneaking into fourth. That said England have a decent chance of winning two of their games, and france have the ability to win all three of theirs, and we should be aiming for three wins and a (Hopefully) narrow loss.

Apologies for changing the subject but sugarNspikes used 6 apostrophes in his last post, all of them correct. This has pleased me greatly.

With no disrespect to the sides concerned and assuming ALL sides are at full strength bar injuries.France Should win a least 2 out of 3,Wales should win at least one.England probably none but could win one.NOW the big question IF the one side of the 3 becomes 4th seed.where do the other 2 end up is it a blind draw there after.The Biggie is who cops for the All Blacks?

england open up with fiji, then oz, sa and NZ. difficulty level builds through the series, sensible.

Its worth remembering that you dont get great points for beating teams below you, especially at home. I think a single sanzar victory could be enough to seal that 4th spot for the seeding.

Far too early to predict it, I think England will win two maybe three out of four so they should hold on imo.

I don't think the SH sides will bring full strength sides this year so chances vs. SA esp will improve. Players have already played 16 matches this year. They may play another 6 SR matches, 6 4N matches and perhaps 3 CC matches.

and then are expected to play another 3 matches in the AI.... its too much.

Reminds me of the Lions year when the 3 big tests followed up by 6 3N matches which wore down the boks to a point the only match they won in the AI tour was vs. Italy... and that was even a struggle if I recall.

Frans Steyn will certainly not play... can't remember the last time he had a proper off season break.... Went straight back to RM after the RWC... well thats if Meyer has any brains???

FA, with the Currie Cup being watered down this year to only six teams, perhaps they should all take a break then

If WP play the Bulls in the final (both of whom played zero boks leading up to it) would Coetzee answer a call from Meyer not to play his first choice players???

You can take the man out of Loftus....

Assuming the Bulls reach the final of course

Can`t see the All Blacks bringing a watered down side they don`t usually do they?injuries will be the factor.Whats the gap between end of 4Ns and the AIs sorry but a Test is a Test.To much of this it`s only a Friendly mentality IF a SH team loses ANYWHERE.It`s well remember when X beat them record books ONLY give results NOT the strength of the teams.

The full international fixture list prior to December 3rd can be found at http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html

The AI fixtures posted above is incomplete

Some unhatched chickens are being counted by some posters maybe?

fa0019 wrote:I don't think the SH sides will bring full strength sides this year so chances vs. SA esp will improve. Players have already played 16 matches this year. They may play another 6 SR matches, 6 4N matches and perhaps 3 CC matches.

and then are expected to play another 3 matches in the AI.... its too much.

Reminds me of the Lions year when the 3 big tests followed up by 6 3N matches which wore down the boks to a point the only match they won in the AI tour was vs. Italy... and that was even a struggle if I recall.

Frans Steyn will certainly not play... can't remember the last time he had a proper off season break.... Went straight back to RM after the RWC... well thats if Meyer has any brains???

Oh so england and wales can use the "we were tired" excuse for not winning the final tests after all? Good stuff. Moral victors.
I think youll find it was Lericester Tigers who wore the Boks down that year BTW

hypothetical obviously.

If he doesn't drop Morne and Morne continues to struggle... it will prove our very fears and Coetzee should take every request from him with a pinch of salt.

I still think SA should leave their top 10 players at home however (or anyone who has played 30+ games come the end of season).... this is something PDV never did and it hurt him as many of his players were injured for long periods of time. Stress fractures caused by too many hits, too many games are becoming more and more common.

Unless I've missed something and there has been a change in the format I think far too much is being made of this 4th place ranking business. Top two in the group go through don't they? If so you can get through losing to the 1-4th placed sides as long as you beat the other teams ranked 9th and below in your group? If you can't do that you don't deserve to be in the quarter finals anyway.

I disagree FA, if our players need a rest, then the test arena is not the place to do it.

Let them rest i the domestic season.

Besides it is time that our players are limited to a specific number of matches, if it is for example 30 per year and you know there are 12 tests, then they may only play 18 other matches.

Portnoy wrote:The full international fixture list prior to December 3rd can be found at http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html

The AI fixtures posted above is incomplete

Some unhatched chickens are being counted by some posters maybe?

Oh yeah its missing England fiji as well as wales samoa.

This actually counts even more against england. Fiji are so low ranked they wont be able to pick up many points even by stuffing them, whereas although samoa is something of a bananaskin fixture youd expect wales to win all the same.

England really are going to have to pull of something special ( and no i dont mean giving Henson a handjob) to get the 4th top seed.
Ill revise to say Wales, with France strong contenders, England and Argentina possibles and Ireland the wild card.

This despite England being the 4th best team in the world (FACT), as we know ffrom a couple of weeks ago the rankings arent always accurate in that regard

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler

Not sure what you're getting angry at.. the boks didn't play ENG that year... they played FRA & IRE.

By the time SA travel to Europe they will have played 9 test matches already... thats 3 more than the 6N sides did when they travelled to the SH... in a much shorter rugby season.

It is undeniable however that those players in 09 were exhausted. I was at Newlands to see the CC Semi final WP vs the Bulls just before the boks left and all the bok players were running on vapours. The famed bok front row from the sharks were also bullied into submission in the other semi vs the Cheetahs.

Its pretty sad when someone wants to make accusations of excuses for losses.... no one said that. I said that the boks who had played all season that year shouldn't have toured.... not only did it cost them tour competitveness it also cost them the next season too as the players were unable to get proper rest and recovery.

exactly toadfish i dont think it matters that much . Wales nearly beat sa and if they did they would have played Australia instead of Ireland . i love u in neighbours by the way

I assume that England's game against Fiji has been ignored as bar a shock win/draw from Fiji it will not affect the points? The tests against New Zealand, Aus and South Africa is a tough run, but in some ways it's good as it puts our destiny in our own hands and means we aren't waiting on other results. New Zealand is likely to be a step too far, but there is a limit to how many points we can lose as they are so far ahead (prob about 0.5 if their points don't change too much between now and then). However, South Africa and Aus are very much beatable, and although I'm not saying we will succeed we should be looking to beat both. Do that and we should be too far ahead for others to catch - e.g. there may well be no points available for wins against Samoa.

I'd also add that Argentina may be very much in the mix... a win or two on the road in the autumn could set them up well. They've rested a lot of their top players for the summer tests so may well put out a strong team in the autumn.

Toadfish wrote:Unless I've missed something and there has been a change in the format I think far too much is being made of this 4th place ranking business. Top two in the group go through don't they? If so you can get through losing to the 1-4th placed sides as long as you beat the other teams ranked 9th and below in your group? If you can't do that you don't deserve to be in the quarter finals anyway.

Yeah but as wales found out last time being a top seed means you miss the " we will probably lose this" fixture, and meanss you dont have to worry so much about a banaskin oppoenent. Imagine if England had pull NZ instead of argentina, their group wouldve been really tough to qualify from as was wales ( who were only bailed out by the midweek fixture rule). France got the banaskin of Tonga in their group as well as a NZ and barely limped through.
In theory it should help to avoid the big boys in the quarters if you win your group, unless you get lucky like wales did.

Its certainly not vital to be a top pot team, but it helps.

It also helps add some interest to the utterly pointless AIs which otherwise are friendly fixtures played between sides who dont want to be here and sides whos players are more interested in the HC/league.

fa0019 wrote:Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler

Not sure what you're getting angry at.. the boks didn't play ENG that year... they played FRA & IRE.

By the time SA travel to Europe they will have played 9 test matches already... thats 3 more than the 6N sides did when they travelled to the SH... in a much shorter rugby season.

It is undeniable however that those players in 09 were exhausted. I was at Newlands to see the CC Semi final WP vs the Bulls just before the boks left and all the bok players were running on vapours. The famed bok front row from the sharks were also bullied into submission in the other semi vs the Cheetahs.

Its pretty sad when someone wants to make accusations of excuses for losses.... no one said that. I said that the boks who had played all season that year shouldn't have toured.... not only did it cost them tour competitveness it also cost them the next season too as the players were unable to get proper rest and recovery.

Im not being angry Im being silly. Lighten up dear boy

Peter - In the Last RWC the top seeds were New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and England. Wales didn't avoid the we will probably lose fixture. Also we went through as the second place side in our pool, with South Africa going through as the best. It just worked out that IReland managed to go through as top in the pool, giving us the easier ride.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Peter - In the Last RWC the top seeds were New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and England. Wales didn't avoid the we will probably lose fixture. Also we went through as the second place side in our pool, with South Africa going through as the best. It just worked out that IReland managed to go through as top in the pool, giving us the easier ride.

Yes thankyou for repeating exactly what I said in summary form.

biltongbek

obviously thats the priority, cut domestic games etc for tests... but the boks don't have control of the franchises completely. They can make requests but Plumtree, Coetzee etc will do what is best for them, not Meyer, thats their job.

In the end SA are missing 2 of the big 3 in Europe this year (WAL & FRA).. for PC sake I'll let you all be the judge on who is the other team out of IRE & ENG so they can afford to leave a few key players like Steyn who desperately need more than a 6 weeks break.

In the end what would you rather have... Frans available for 2 meaningless tests vs. IRE & SCO... but perhaps a tour where he picks up a 6 month injury or a 3 month rest and fully recovered to hit '13 full guns blazing. Thats how I see it anyhow.

Argentina were ranked 4th in the world for the 2011 draw weren't they?

Wales, England, Ireland and France were 2nd seeds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Rugby_World_Cup

jimmyinthewell68 wrote:exactly toadfish i dont think it matters that much . Wales nearly beat sa and if they did they would have played Australia instead of Ireland . i love u in neighbours by the way

Cheers, always nice to meet a fan!

PSW I know it can mean a slightly easier path but I just can't help thinking if you start going down the route of trying to navigate an easy way through you're already mentally on the wrong track. As I said if you can't beat these lower ranked sides you've got no place being in the quarter finals. Banana skins happen which is part of what makes these tournaments great but if you are in it to win it you can't be afraid of anyone.

sugarNspikes wrote:Argentina were ranked 4th in the world for the 2011 draw weren't they?

Wales, England, Ireland and France were 2nd seeds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Rugby_World_Cup

Yes which is why they got an easy(ish) draw. Had they not been ranked 5th they would have had one of the sanzars or (england/france?) instead of england. As it came down to it it wouldnt have made the slightest bit of difference but on paper England were more beatable than a sanzar wouldve been.

Theres lots of variables of course and its not the be all and end all of things but it doesnt hurt to avoid having a sanzar in your group for the Eurgentinians, however arguably its who you get of the pot 3 / 4 teams that really counts (wales were lucky to get fiji who were the weakest pot 3 team, very unlucky to get samoa who were far stronger than any other 4th pot team)

Toadfish wrote:

jimmyinthewell68 wrote:exactly toadfish i dont think it matters that much . Wales nearly beat sa and if they did they would have played Australia instead of Ireland . i love u in neighbours by the way

Cheers, always nice to meet a fan!

PSW I know it can mean a slightly easier path but I just can't help thinking if you start going down the route of trying to navigate an easy way through you're already mentally on the wrong track. As I said if you can't beat these lower ranked sides you've got no place being in the quarter finals. Banana skins happen which is part of what makes these tournaments great but if you are in it to win it you can't be afraid of anyone.

True but I dont think anyone realisticaly expects a euro or argentina to win the next world cup do they? I mean england arguably only ever managed it because wayne barnes defeated new zealand in the semi finals for them.
Progressing as far as possible is the next best thing .... Brian Ashton managed to convince people he wasnt a useless Tinkywinky by fluking england to the final, and look at the hay the welsh fans have made out of a 4th place. As the fans said no-one will remember how they got there, just where they got.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

sugarNspikes wrote:Argentina were ranked 4th in the world for the 2011 draw weren't they?

Wales, England, Ireland and France were 2nd seeds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Rugby_World_Cup

Yes which is why they got an easy(ish) draw. Had they not been ranked 5th they would have had one of the sanzars or (england/france?) instead of england. As it came down to it it wouldnt have made the slightest bit of difference but on paper England were more beatable than a sanzar wouldve been.

Theres lots of variables of course and its not the be all and end all of things but it doesnt hurt to avoid having a sanzar in your group for the Eurgentinians, however arguably its who you get of the pot 3 / 4 teams that really counts (wales were lucky to get fiji who were the weakest pot 3 team, very unlucky to get samoa who were far stronger than any other 4th pot team)

Yeah and England were lucky to get out of their group.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
True but I dont think anyone realisticaly expects a euro or argentina to win the next world cup do they? I mean england arguably only ever managed it because wayne barnes defeated new zealand in the semi finals for them.

Huh? How did Wayne Barnes defeate NZ in the 2003 semi final?

P.s for the record I think England will hold onto fourth by the virtue of nobody else doing enough to take it off them.

LordDowlais wrote:Yeah and England were lucky to get out of their group.

Winning every match in the pool normally ensures you qualify.