Wimbledon 2012 - Convincing Champion?

Wimbledon this year certainly on the Men's side has seen quite the explosion in the last 5 days. We have seen Nadal struggle and get knocked out in the 2nd round. We saw Andy struggle against Karlovic and Baghdatis. We saw Djokovic somehow lose a set against Stepanek despite being in control of that first set. We saw Federer delight the royal box and then find himself in shoot out with Benneteau which really did come down to the surivial of the fittest.

Out of the 32 seeds only 12 remain. That was the number at the Australian Open this year. The French Open in the last 16 saw 15 of them as seeds.

Though at Wimbledon it seems and feels different. Nadal out. It has opened that section of the draw up. Still it seems that the top half of draw is still destined for a Federer/Djokovic showdown in the semi's. However you still can't help but think there is another twist in the tail somewhere. Rosol's heroics have certainly highlighted to the rest of the field that the big 4 are there to have a crack at. Benneteau nearly did and if I am brutally honest, had Karlovic taken that 4th set against Murray, I fancied him to take out Murray in 5 given where the momentum was shifting in his favour.

Now when you look at the draw and the field you wonder should anyone but Djokovic or Federer not triumph here that we would have a worthy champion with someone new?

Would Gasquet or Tsonga be convincing as a Slam champion given such wayward form they display all year round?

What about Ferrer? Would he be respected as a Slam champion for his style of play?

Del Potro? Would this be the beginning for him to win multiple Slams or will he be a Hewitt/Roddick/Safin as an opportunistic champion when the level at the top drops just a shade?

And of course Murray? Would it be thank god for Rosol? Could he then go on and win other Slams like he has been groomed all his career to do?

The bottom half of the draw without a doubt is full of risk, but also reward. There are some tough matches still to be had. If your Baker/Kohlschreiber/Ferrer/Fish the thought of a first time GS Final is tantalisingly within reach. The term 'There has never been a better chance' has never been so prominent for so many players.

I have to admit as a Murray fan I am hoping that he can do the gallows proud and reach the final so we don't have the whole Wade/Perry crap each and every year, but I will admit if Baker starts etching closer, I may just shift my support for a day

Nice post, but slightly an example of conflation and over-elevation of recent history and holding the players to almost unrealistic standards (like Fed's "I've created a monster").

Djoko dropping a set is par for the course. It's incredibly rare to go through a slam without dropping a set, it's only been done 8/160+ slams in the Open Era, and only once at Wimbledon.

It's worth casting back to W 2011 when Djoko faced only Nadal from the 'big 4' after Fed's QF defeat 'threw his half of the draw wide open'. Not all slam winners in 2011-2012 have had to beat two members of the 'big 4', and having to beat two members of the 'slightly bigger 3' is very much the exception (only Djoko at the USO last year I think).

Unusually Nadal's side of the draw is much the toughest this year and whoever may emerge from the more likely trio of Murray, Tsonga, Del Boy would be a worthy multiple slam finalist or indeed slam winner. If any of the others were to win out to the final vs. (I assume Fed or Djoko) it would hardly differ hugely from the 2010 Finals at RG and W or 2009 RG or several of Sampras's finals in the 1990's.

Nice post, but slightly an example of conflation and over-elevation of recent history and holding the players to almost unrealistic standards (like Fed's "I've created a monster").

Thanks barry. A pleasure your comments as always. Just that bit there I was more of the Baker/Kohlschreiber/Tsonga/Fish section looks really interesting and that it is a massive opportunity for someone to really take that section of the draw by the sruff of the neck and build some formidable momentum towards the back end of the tournament.

I think with the Federer/Djokovic draw. If we go by paper, you would expect them to make it to the semi's, though recent performances have suggested that they are not quite near the top of their form and that players around them have a kind of 'now or never' opportunity. I don't think entirely that it is down to just Djokovic/Federer letting their standards slip, but the lower ranked players giving a good acount of themselves on court. Benneteau being that exception. Stepanek did a smash and grab in that 1st set against Djokovic and even now I am still stumped on how he pulled that out of the fire

I think if anyone outside the top 4 wins it then, fine. They'll be worthy champions. I'm not a great believer in the habit of regarding some as * (asterisk) champions in that someone may have been injured or someone else knocked out all the top seeds for them.
Someone who might have come into this category was Nalby in 02 at Wimbledon when he got to the final - and played Malisse in the semis - when the field contained, among others, Fed, Sampras, Agassi and Safin.

As far as we know, all the top players came into the tournament in reasonable state of health and fitness (the only question I know of being how Murray's back was, and that seems to have been ok, it just being everything else that's now falling apart). As such, whoever wins will be a deserved champion - OK, so if it's someone from Nadal's quarter they've maybe had a bit of luck with Rosol's inspired match removing Rafa from the tournament, but they'll still potentially have to beat Murray/Del P in the SF and Djoko or Fed in the final.

OK, every so often someone gets a relatively easy run through to the final, but that comes because the top seeds weren't good enough to get to the matches they were expected to, and can't be held against the guys who benefit.