Whose luck could turn?

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Well living in Madrid, it's impossible to escape the football fever sweeping the country here. I feel happy for them. Lord knows they need something to cheer about given the state of their economy. No European team has won the Euro Cup and the World Cup successively. In knockout football, Spain has not conceded a goal since 2006.

To me it's a remarkable achievement given they were perennial underachievers in football for so many years. The last time Spain beat Italy in a title match was 1920. This was your typical team that would be talked up before the tournaments, would play one or two good games and then get dumped out of the tournament in the quarters or first elimination round.

This made me think, is there an equivalent in world rugby waiting to enjoy a similar fate? Before their title in Euro 2008 they hadn't won anything really of note. Obviously they got an influx of good players with club experience at the top level. You could see how their confidence grew in 2008 after winning on penalties against Italy. That was previously the typical game that saw them eliminated but the belief grew exponentially thereafter and really they rode that wave of self belief to World Cup victory in 2010. They enjoyed luck along the way (Robben missing two clear chances in the final with only Casillas to beat, the semi victory against Portugal on penalties this year, a borderline goal against Croatia to make them top the group and a few others along the way) but they also showed moments of dominance like against Germany in 2010 or Italy last Sunday.

So to me there are a few contenders for those who have yet to taste World Cup success.

Ireland: You can say they know all about knockout footy. Munster before and Leinster recently with Ulster and other sides performing on the European stage, you have to say experience of those pressure moments could well count for a lot in a World Cup situation. Obviously test rugby is a step up but the pressure and knowledge of how to close out a tight match are important skills that have often eluded more illustrious teams like the ABs. Ireland are the type of team that can turn on the heat but annoyingly there doesn't seem to be much hot water in the cylinder and the follow up performance seems to be lukewarm at best. But what if there was the situation where Ireland found itself in a group of death and they strung two great performances together to top the pool. Could that be enough to raise their self belief and enable them to call upon that A performance when they really needed it later on?

Wales: They are always there or thereabouts in the European club scene but somehow fail to make that final hurdle in the second half of the competition after the 6N. They have been up and down in the 6N more so than Ireland but have also won more and, moreover, when they do win they tend to do so in emphatic style. What has eluded them so far is an ability to win against the big SH sides. They came close against SA and somehow didn't win a game in Australia this series but imagine a scenario that they beat say SA, NZ or Australia or a couple in successive years. What impact will that have on their confidence and performance? Losing can become a habit but as teams like Spain in football or NZ in rugby (at least out of RWC tournaments!) have shown so too can winning.

Scotland: Ok some might say this team is a long shot. But to me the biggest hurdle Scotland has faced is consistency. They seem quite adept at pulling a big scalp out of the rugby calendar each year but then lose games they should have fought harder for more. They won the very last 5N but haven't really done much of note since. A 6N win seems beyond them based on previous results but what would a win do for them in terms of belief? Edinburgh has shown great spirit on the European stage. Why can't a similar thing happen on a national level?

France: Really with their record, it's difficult to see how they haven't won a RWC after reaching 3 finals. They came so close last time but were poor in the following 6N. Often their biggest liability seems to be themselves. They can be gloriously good and atrociously poor. String together a few more of the former at the right times and things could be quite different. When France believe they can win they often do so. The trick is for them to make the opposition think that they will have a hard time winning.

Argentina: Their RWC record is impressive given their lack of exposure to a challenging regional tournament. They might have a tough time in the new 4N but what better way to improve by regularly playing the top ranked sides. If they can grow the game in their own country and organise a professional league rather than rely on Europe for their exposure to rugby outside the international calendar, then they might well surprise in the years to come.

So have I missed anyone out and what chances do you give those teams I mentioned of becoming the rugby equivalent of Spain and tasting World Cup success?

luck is meeeeh either way- it holds no value, its like a white lie. Even if its a factor best to forget and move on

Luck is what happen when preparation meets opportunity, is a saying in my country.

we say "you make your own luck"

"the more you practise the luckier you get" gary player

Nice sayings mystri

My compare is about hole in one in golf. There is some luck there, but you need to be the very good golf player and practise a lot to getting one! Of course you are aim to the hole. but what is about aim that makes it go in this one time? I think luck indicate a not 100% reproducible process and spill into kick at goal.

arrgg hole in ones wind me up- i have been on the lip 10 times and not had one yet i know someone who cant break 100 and has got one.

I know someone who has 12 and aonly a very decent amatuer yet seve ballestrios never had one.

however i have holed 5 shots over 100 yards on par 4's, and i am sure seve has holed way more than that- there is no real difference is there, to your final score or the shot itself.

i also know someone that had a hole in one on a hole in a match and lost the hole!!!! lol- so is it lucky, is it really lucky unless that action and that shot wins you something- and then is that lucky anyway!

Is it luckier to bounce out of the trees from a sprayed drive- i mean at least the hole in one was aimed for !!

basically a hole in one is like a lottery win. the difference being a lottery win makes you money, the hole in one costs you money!

anotherworldofpain wrote:Luck is what happen when preparation meets opportunity, is a saying in my country.

which country would that be?

Well if you want to draw parallels with the Spanish team, they were labelled "perennial underachievers" until they won the 2008 Euros.

I think of that list, France are the perennial underachievers in world rugby. Can't see where this change in luck would come from though.

Scotland, maybe Ireland, both mentioned in this ESPN article:

http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/story/166013.html