The Lions One Year Out

First topic message reminder :

Our friends at Whiff of Cordite have opened the discussion of the make up of next years Lions Squad with a look at potential travellers in the Forwards.

http://whiffofcordite.com/2012/07/10/lions-2013-the-forwards/

Lions 2013 – the Forwards
Put on your Power of 4 bracelets, park your xenophobia, marvel at the fact Andy Powell and Ugo Monye toured last time out, and brace yourself for cringeworthy archive footage of Iain McGeechan bawling in 2009 – it’s the Lions!

Well, it will be in a year or so anyway. Last year, we looked at the runners and riders two years out, split (as this year) into forwards and backs – we got some things right (Ben Morgan and Dan Tuohy as ones to watch) and some laughably wrong (we said Rory Best was finished and mentioned Ooooooooooohh Matt Banahan).

One year on, we’re going to put our necks on the block (a little) – we’re going to call who is on the plane, who needs to do more, and guess some potential bolters … a fool’s errand if there ever was one. With Warren Gatland as head coach (as surely he will be), we think selection policy will be similar enough to last time, with form the key watchword. McGeechan and Gatty made it clear they wanted players who were finishing the season well, and were happy to leave out players they hugly respected (Ryan Jones) in favour of those who were on top of their form (Alan Quinlan). So we figure it’s not worth trying to name a 35-man panel at this juncture. Today it’s the forwards and Thursday the backs.

Loosehead prop:

On the plane: Fresh from a top notch season with Leinster and Ireland where he emerged as a pack leader, scrumagger of note and destructive carrier, DJ Church can be pencilled in as a starter right now.

Work to do: Gethin Jenkins was favourite to start and a certainty to tour just 6 months ago, but was injured and then out-performed by Paul James in the second half of last season. If James continues his upward trajectory and Jenkins doesn’t improve, James will tour in his stead. Alex Corbisiero had a solid season for England last year – if he holds on to his shirt, he’s going.

Bolters: Prop isn’t a position where you emerge from nowhere so don’t expect a less-established name to go to Oz, but Ryan Grant rescued his career with a move to Glasgow last year, and had a good summer tour, just like Scotland. If he ousts Chunk from the national team, he has a chance.

Hooker:

On the plane: Despite what we said last year, Rory Best is going – he’s been immense for Ireland and Ulster this year. In 2009, Ross Ford toured as a token Scot – this time, he will tour by right – his offloading game for Embra in this years HEC was incredible, and his set-piece work is solid.

Work to do: Dylan Hartley has never quite convinced at the highest level – every time you think he has cracked it, he puts out a performance so bad you go back to square one. Wales have been chopping and changing at hooker for the last year – Matthew Rees has generally been first choice, but has not been playing well – if any of Huw Bennett, Richard Hibbard or Ken Owens pull out a good quality and consistent season and get the shirt for the Six Nations, they will go.

Bolters: He will shortly turn Irish, and multi-HEC winning Richardt Strauss has been a key part of Leinster’s success – although small, he is a dynamic player and looks well-tailored to be put up against the powder-puff Wallaby forwards.

Tighthead Prop:

On the plane: The best scrumagging tighthead in Lions contention is Adam Jones – add his previous Lions experience and Gatty’s trust, and he’s in. Dan Cole is a yellow card machine, but he is improving every year – he had a good tour to SA as well – he’ll make it.

Work to do: There are no Sunday tests, but Euan Murray still need to do better than last year – as it stands he is behind the technically excellent Mike Ross.

Bolters: Again, tighthead props don’t come from nowhere, so don’t expect too many surprises barring injury. Deccie Fitzpatrick stepped up to a very high level this June and didn’t look too out of place – if John Afoa or Ross get crocked, he will come into the reckoning.

Second Row:

On the Plane: Richie Gray could fall into a big hole and spend 11 months getting out and still make the tour – he’s simply fantastic and we love him unconditionally. Captain last time out, Paul O’Connell makes his province and country twice as good when he is in the team – he is a captaincy contender (Gatty likes a meaty captain).

Work to do: After what looked like a breakthrough 2010/11, Courtney Lawes had his 2011/12 ruined by injury – if he comes back near his form of the season before last, he should still make it. The move to Perpignan may have come at the wrong time for Luke Charteris – Bradley Davies and Alun Wyn Jones had good summer tours, and Ian Evans is still playing a t a high level – at least two of that quartet will be missing out. If Donnacha Ryan or Dan Tuohy can continue last years progression, both are in with a shout – more likely Ryan, given how easily he has adopted to the international stage. Geoff Parling is a decent lineout operator, but there would appear to be better options unless he makes more impact around the park.

Bolters: As far as we know, there are no Eben Etzebeth’s waiting to bust out of a reserve team anywhere, but Iain Henderson looks the real deal at Ulster – it’s more than likely too early, but Gatty hasn’t shied from picking raw and talented youngsters before (albeit mostly piano players rather than piano shifters).

Backrow:

On the Plane: This sector is ridiculously competitive, and some big names are going to miss out. As it stands, we see Sam Warburton going – you’ll need a fetcher to go up against Pocock, and Sam is also a captaincy contender. Stephen Ferris offers twitch power and strength unlike anything else in the hempisphere, and Chris Robshaw is ideal dirt-track leadership material – we think these three are in the lead right now.

Work to do: At the back of the pack, one of Jamie Heaslip, Ben Morgan and Toby Faletau is possibly going to miss out – Heaslip has the experience of SA in his favour, and has had a better year than most give him credit for, but is not firing on all cylinders. Morgan was England’s best player in the Six Nations but had a difficult SA tour, and Faletau carries more ball than anyone in the Welsh (Grand Slam) pack.

On the flanks, Sean O’Brien also carries well and he can play right across the backrow – that’s a plus on a busy tour. Looking at exclusive blindsides, Dan Lydiate will tackle until the cows come home; whereas Dave Denton can carry destrictively as well. Firmly ensconsed in the Stephen Jones Club is Tom Croft – he’s great in open field and scored spectacular tries in last years Six Nations, but he also got bumped badly by Dave Denton and dumped into touch by Paddy Wallace (Paddy Wallace!) in Ravers - he’ll need to improve. Or what about nearly-England captain Tom Wood?

If fetching is your thing, why, we can offer you a Justin Tipuric – Pro12 winner with the Ospreys and able deputy for Big Sam – or Ross Rennie, breakdown king in a HEC semi-final. And we haven’t mentioned John Barclay yet. The least you can say is there is depth!

Bolters: He may not have looked ready in New Zealand, but Peter O’Mahony has raw talent – the arrival of CJ Stander will free him to work on improving his game at 6 or 8, and you might see good results if the pressure if kept off. The best openside of the lot is probably Steffon Armitage, the Top14 POTY – a visible HEC campaign and he could make the plane.

Are there any obvious exclusions from their list?
Who would you pick as captain?
Any other bolters?

I will up date with the back choices on Thursday.

rodders wrote:
The biggest rival would be Davies but without wanting to throw the cat amongst the pidgeons there are serious question marks over whether the Welsh game plan, which swept all before them in the NH, is effective against the SH.

I would prefer to see Davies at 12 and BOD (if fit and in form, if not then Manu) at 13. Get Davies coming in with his power and pace aiming at the 10/12 channel like he does for the Scarlets.

The Welsh team went very close in Aus last time out and this time they'll be bolstered by the English, Scots and Irish. I think all of whom have beaten the Wallabies in the last couple of years (England did home and away).

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Sin é wrote:
Australia, unliked scotland (used to playing in rough weather conditions ) had a 100% success rate (7 lineouts).

If Scotland secured the ball on their own throw, they might have won by more. Scotland lost 5 lineouts on their own throw.

Sin, you really can be a pedant sometimes! If you'd actually bothered to watch the game, you would have noted that they were nearly all mis-thrown, simple as (hence only one of them is registered as stolen ball for Oz)

I didn't see the match. The lineout is a collective of hooker, lock and lifter. How could anyone mistrow to Richie Grey at the front of a lineout?

Glas a du wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

rodders wrote:The biggest rival would be Davies but without wanting to throw the cat amongst the pidgeons there are serious question marks over whether the Welsh game plan, which swept all before them in the NH, is effective against the SH.

Then the problem isn't who plays at outside centre but who coaches the Lions.

A dream team of Richards, Jones and O'Shea.

Keith, Tom and Rick?

Sin é wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Sin é wrote:
Australia, unliked scotland (used to playing in rough weather conditions ) had a 100% success rate (7 lineouts).

If Scotland secured the ball on their own throw, they might have won by more. Scotland lost 5 lineouts on their own throw.

Sin, you really can be a pedant sometimes! If you'd actually bothered to watch the game, you would have noted that they were nearly all mis-thrown, simple as (hence only one of them is registered as stolen ball for Oz)

I didn't see the match. The lineout is a collective of hooker, lock and lifter. How could anyone mistrow to Richie Grey at the front of a lineout?

Watch the game and you will see!

caoimhincentre wrote:
Whats your point. Heaslip sees the lions as a highlight. surely he is entitled to his own opinion

That Heaslip will up his game for Ireland so that he gets selected for the Lion next year.

I gotta say, Id be very surprised if BOD made the Lions starting 22. I think he'll certainly tour, but will he be playing better than either of JD2 or Tuilagi in a years time? Who knows what other 13s will be thereabouts either, even Scott Williams/Joseph?? He'll tour no doubt, but I would be very suprised to see him in the test team.

The locks will be between Gray/POC/Evans/Lawes for the starting spot I think.....

Backrows is anyones guess,if warburtons fit and playing to a decent level for his club, he'll be starting somewhere, whichever 3 starts, i think someone like SOB/Ryan Jones will be the bench option, someone who can cover at least 3 positions in the back 5, whether that be across the backrow or 2nd row too. Otherwise, Rennie/Tips for openside, Robshaw is a machine but I dont think he'd be starting above the other options. Theres powerful backrowers in abundance, Denton surely has the 8 shirt at the moment, if he carries on as he has, the only person I could see ousting him would be Morgan (if he can sort himself out fitness wise) or perhaps the return to form of Heaslip/Beattie.

Phillips will tour, hes a big game player, unless Webb overtakes him for wales this year.... Ben Youngs & Laidlaw hopefully too, youngs would be my favourite to start.

I imagine priestland will tour, hes had a lot of flack for certain things, but one thing I can say is that hes certainly not the reason wales were beaten in Oz, you can thank our pack for that honour.

No-ones mentioned Biggar as a bolter? The guy that has twice steered the ospreys to the Rabo title away to Leinster? Hes had his up and downs in form, but I think this season is the one for him to really push on and mature. Could be a massive season for him.

I like the shout of Tom youngs at hooker too, I would be surprised if he doesnt overtake Hartley for England this year, and hes quick, powerful and gets about, just needs to get his darts tidy. Best's always there or abouts! Hopefully Ken Owens can keep maturing too.

Loosehead will be interesting, I really like the look of Rhys Gill, Corbisero has been very good in patches and Healey has done very well but will the scrum stuffing at Twickers be forgotten so easily by an ex-front rower leading the tour? Not saying its right it shouldnt be but who knows!

thats about it for now...

... the lions make me excited! so many options, so many of them leaving very, very strong players behind.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Dan Cole is a yellow card machine, but he is improving every year – he had a good tour to SA as well – he’ll make it.

1 yellow card in 84 appearences for Tigers makes him a 'yellow card machine'? He's scored 2 tries over the same period, doesn't make him a points machine (thought given the penalties he can win at the scrum...)

I was wondering much the same. On top of that he was easily a match for the much vaunted The Beast on the SA tour as well in the international stakes. He walked away with a lot prestige and his social capital has gone up a lot in the last year.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Sin é wrote:
Australia, unliked scotland (used to playing in rough weather conditions ) had a 100% success rate (7 lineouts).

If Scotland secured the ball on their own throw, they might have won by more. Scotland lost 5 lineouts on their own throw.

Sin, you really can be a pedant sometimes! If you'd actually bothered to watch the game, you would have noted that they were nearly all mis-thrown, simple as (hence only one of them is registered as stolen ball for Oz)

I didn't see a lot of Scotland's games this summer, but it's not always the hooker's fault remember that. It's a combination of timing and reading each others thoughts. You need a bit of a connection with your thrower and jumpers

I like that option Sam (at least once upon a time). I think Davies runs good angles and should be in the team. You need an effective runner with power and pace but also someone who knows how to find a gap and not just through power. Then it comes down to form for who his partner should be.

Thomond wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Sin é wrote:
Australia, unliked scotland (used to playing in rough weather conditions ) had a 100% success rate (7 lineouts).

If Scotland secured the ball on their own throw, they might have won by more. Scotland lost 5 lineouts on their own throw.

Sin, you really can be a pedant sometimes! If you'd actually bothered to watch the game, you would have noted that they were nearly all mis-thrown, simple as (hence only one of them is registered as stolen ball for Oz)

I didn't see a lot of Scotland's games this summer, but it's not always the hooker's fault remember that. It's a combination of timing and reading each others thoughts. You need a bit of a connection with your thrower and jumpers

T, trust me, in Scotland's case, it's more often than not Fordy catching the yips

Comfort wrote:

No-ones mentioned Biggar as a bolter? The guy that has twice steered the ospreys to the Rabo title away to Leinster? Hes had his up and downs in form, but I think this season is the one for him to really push on and mature. Could be a massive season for him.

I like the shout of Tom youngs at hooker too, I would be surprised if he doesnt overtake Hartley for England this year, and hes quick, powerful and gets about, just needs to get his darts tidy. Best's always there or abouts! Hopefully Ken Owens can keep maturing too.

Loosehead will be interesting, I really like the look of Rhys Gill, Corbisero has been very good in patches and Healey has done very well but will the scrum stuffing at Twickers be forgotten so easily by an ex-front rower leading the tour? Not saying its right it shouldnt be but who knows!

thats about it for now...

... the lions make me excited! so many options, so many of them leaving very, very strong players behind.

That's because this is a discussion about the possible Forwards, with the captaincy thrown in because of Gartlands preference for it to be a Forward.

I don't think that Healy was the cause of the problem against England. He has shown enough since to show he is among the top five looseheads in World Rugby.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Well fair enough Rodders. To me the question though on form BOD is the best. I think he made uncharacteristic errors in the first and third tests and didn't shine out in any game apart from the second. You yourself admit he isn't playing near his best. Of course there are reasons behind that. He is coming back from injury and I think BOD was handicapped by the absence of his usual centre partner. It was no surprise to me when BOD's best game was alongside D'Arcy. But I repeat that was on defence. They didn't do a lot on attack so saying Davies was blunt in attack is a moot point. Of course there are other reasons for that with regard to Irish tactics.

No I accept that he isn't at his best, he's 33 and doesn't have the pace he had and that is just a reality. He doesn't have the size and power of Tuilagi and Davies.

However defensively he is perhaps the best centre around still. In terms of attack I think there are still glimpses of magic as he showed in the HEC final and also to some degree in the second test against the ABs when he was taking the ball flat in the 12 channel, he and Sexton (at 13) manufactured a number of good breaks and half breaks.

Agree totally on the poor offloads in the 1st and 3rd test and if he plays like that then he shouldn't be on tour at all, but generally his form since april has been very good and there aren't many other outstanding centres just now.

I think it is for Davies and Tuilagi to show they are better than him, not the other way round.

I agree. But notably better than him on attack. I think both are sound enough on defence. What they need to show is that they can unlock defences. That to me will get them the nod. Then again for Davies as mentioned by FKA Sam could play inside BOD.

Another interesting pick will be the utility backline player on the bench. That will depend on who is on the wing. If Halfpenny is there then you can afford to pick a centre and maybe Tuilagi would be a good option when legs are tired. If you don't have Halfpenny on the wing then maybe he covers wing and fullback. If you have two reliable goalkickers at 10 like Sexton or Farrell then maybe you go for an impact player as well.

I think Biggar is a bolter, but for one thing...Gatland doesn't seem to like him.

Sam I think Davies and BOD in midfield looks a good fit too.

The biggest question marks are around Roberts, not BOD. Will he be fit in 12 months?

BOD, Tuilagi and Davies are certs if fit I think.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I agree. But notably better than him on attack.

Based on what Kia? I'd say O'Driscoll has probably scored and created more tries than all his rivals put together in the past 2 seasons alone.

How do you define attack? The ability to run 50meters with the ball, the ability to create opportunities for the players around you, the ability to finish tries?

In some aspects of attacking play yes other players are definitely better but in others I would argue O'Driscoll is another level to the other potential midfielders.

Is Nonu a better attacker than Conrad Smith? SBW? or is that comparing apples and oranges?

That is why BOD would be better playing at 12 at this point in his career. The reason he is still so dangerous is his ability to create something. He is unpredictable and can put other players into fantastic positions to attack. However, he just doesn't have the pace himself to exploit space. Which is why he would be best suited to 12.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:That is why BOD would be better playing at 12 at this point in his career. The reason he is still so dangerous is his ability to create something. He is unpredictable and can put other players into fantastic positions to attack. However, he just doesn't have the pace himself to exploit space. Which is why he would be best suited to 12.

Not from what I saw in the First Test in NZ this summer.

Regarding his pace Rava? Or the fact he was playing at 12?

I think it is for Davies and Tuilagi to show they are better than him, not the other way round

Well I think Davies will slot into 12 very nicely if the likes of Sexton, Flood or Laidlaw are at 10. Hitting good lines off of them with his pace and power against some pretty weak Aussie 10s should go well. 13 will be interesting as BOD has all the class but diminishing physical skillset (it happens with age in rugby) but Manu has the physique and pace of a great but needs to really sharpen up his game (he is only just 21), I think they'll both go but don't know who will start. If Manu could be mentored by BOD on tour that would be great.

The fact he was playing at 12. There are better 12's around for the Lions, although maybe not Ireland.
In my opinion he should maybe make the tour. I don't think he will play in the Test team and I don't think he should be Captain.

I'm taking into account test rugby. I don't get to see a lot of club footy in Madrid though I do get to see quite a bit of Heineken rugby on teledeporte. But frankly test rugby is the standard I judge a player on in any event. Super or HR is all well and good but test rugby reveals true class.

Attack is everything you mention but the least important is the first one. Attack for me is your ability to break the line. Through running to set up players around you with or without the ball. When given a sniff of the try line to make that opportunity account for you or a player around you.

When I judge a player on attack, you obviously judge them as individuals as well as a unit. Nonu and Smith are different players but how effective are they as a unit. How much does the ball get put into space for a player on the outside or inside? How many line breaks are made?

Now I don't have the stats and I may well be wrong. But I don't think tries have come freely for any of the players mentioned. It's difficult to judge the ability of players on attack. But all I'm saying is if one of those 3 DOES stand out on attack by the criteria you and I mentioned, then Gatland should sit up and take notice. I'm not saying BOD is finished and dried up. I'm just saying Gatland needs to pick the player who looks dependable in defence and cutting in attack. To me it's easier to play people in combinations than to put in untested combinations and that goes against BOD at the moment. But if he returns to more convincing form, his experience makes it difficult to leave him out.

One thing I thought that the Welsh summer tour of Australia showed is that the Oz front 5 will not be a push-over (this may have been mentioned earlier) - so I think we're going to need a group of players that can really mix it with the Oz front row and boiler-room first and foremost. For that reason, if a player can't do the basics of their position to the highest level, then i don't see a place for them

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:
T, trust me, in Scotland's case, it's more often than not Fordy catching the yips

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:One thing I thought that the Welsh summer tour of Australia showed is that the Oz front 5 will not be a push-over (this may have been mentioned earlier) - so I think we're going to need a group of players that can really mix it with the Oz front row and boiler-room first and foremost. For that reason, if a player can't do the basics of their position to the highest level, then i don't see a place for them

Rava wrote:The fact he was playing at 12. There are better 12's around for the Lions, although maybe not Ireland.
In my opinion he should maybe make the tour. I don't think he will play in the Test team and I don't think he should be Captain.

Then again Rava, he played even worse at 13 in the 3rd test. I would like to see him give 12 a few more shots.

Rava wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:
T, trust me, in Scotland's case, it's more often than not Fordy catching the yips

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:One thing I thought that the Welsh summer tour of Australia showed is that the Oz front 5 will not be a push-over (this may have been mentioned earlier) - so I think we're going to need a group of players that can really mix it with the Oz front row and boiler-room first and foremost. For that reason, if a player can't do the basics of their position to the highest level, then i don't see a place for them

Oh aye, 'tis true, I won't duck that one, Ford's throwing is the one area of his game which can let him down badly (much like Besty!)

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I agree. But notably better than him on attack. I think both are sound enough on defence. What they need to show is that they can unlock defences. That to me will get them the nod. Then again for Davies as mentioned by FKA Sam could play inside BOD.

Another interesting pick will be the utility backline player on the bench. That will depend on who is on the wing. If Halfpenny is there then you can afford to pick a centre and maybe Tuilagi would be a good option when legs are tired. If you don't have Halfpenny on the wing then maybe he covers wing and fullback. If you have two reliable goalkickers at 10 like Sexton or Farrell then maybe you go for an impact player as well.

Keith Earls ... has been capped internationally at 11, 12, 13 & 15 and is a former Lions tourist.

I think some people are forgetting how difficult it will be to build a team from scratch in a few weeks and why most tours end up with a core of players who have all played together before either internationally or on previous Lions tours. For instance, would the Lions coaching team bank on Tualagi (an unknown quantity to the entire Lions management team) to be a starting Lion or might they prefer to have someone like O'Driscoll (a known quanity) along as well?

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

Rava wrote:The fact he was playing at 12. There are better 12's around for the Lions, although maybe not Ireland.
In my opinion he should maybe make the tour. I don't think he will play in the Test team and I don't think he should be Captain.

Then again Rava, he played even worse at 13 in the 3rd test. I would like to see him give 12 a few more shots.

I would have no problem if his club were prepared to try it. International rugby isn't the place to be experimenting.

I think you need more of an impact player than Earls Sin é. He has been shunted around for Ireland and has gained the unfortunate tag of utility player. Don't be mistaken though. When you pick a utility backline player you have a specific position in mind and think of the players starting who can shuffle around nearby. You can never plan for injuries so you must have cover but it's bad luck for example if both your flyhalves get injured. You can't have 3 specialist players there for that possibility.

I think BOD has a greater chance of starting IF form and fitness apply. Tuilagi has a greater chance of being a utility player though. You don't want to pick a jack of all trades as a utility player. You want to pick a player who can do damage in a certain position.

Kia

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I'm taking into account test rugby.

Fair enough Kia, look I do respect what you are saying but I simply disagree that Tuilagi and Davies are comprehensively better attacking players at this level than O'Driscoll all things considered.

Absolutely over 80min they will carry for more meters and perhaps (or perhaps not) make more clean breaks but quite honestly if there was a player I'd back to score a crucial try or set up a big attacking play in a tight test match it would be O'Driscoll still.

On that basis alone I'm not convinced he offers less overall than others in attack and with his reading of the game, defensive ability, organisational skills (I was stood behind him at ravenhill recently and he was organising all match in attack and defence) and leadership I don't believe there is an all round better centre available on current form.

In 12 or 6 month that could be very different as the others will improve and there is a big risk he will decline further but right now he's a cert for me and others need to up their games.

Rava wrote:

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

Rava wrote:The fact he was playing at 12. There are better 12's around for the Lions, although maybe not Ireland.
In my opinion he should maybe make the tour. I don't think he will play in the Test team and I don't think he should be Captain.

Then again Rava, he played even worse at 13 in the 3rd test. I would like to see him give 12 a few more shots.

I would have no problem if his club were prepared to try it. International rugby isn't the place to be experimenting.

BODs best performance came in the second test Rava when he was sandwiched between ROG and Sexton...his worst came in the 3rd at outside centre.

What does that prove? Well nothing really but its worth mentioning.

Well it does prove something actually, that when BOD was pared with a quicker more attacking player (Sexton) who is on the same wavelength, then he looked far more dangerous, and indeed quicker himself.

I'd say that would apply to whether he was at 12 or 13. Its not where he lines up, but who he's alongside.

You ok Rava?

I agree with what you say rodders. My worry for BOD is the lack of combinations in an Irish jersey. Say if Roberts returns from injury and plays alright, his combination with Davies stands in his favour. BOD may be a better individual case but at the moment the lack of collective parts around him MAY stand against him. Then again, if he returns to the form you talk about then I agree he will start and Gatland will just look at the inside centre options. If you choose BOD though you need to choose another type of player at 12. Roberts would have no chance even if he got back to form as he doesn't complement BOD well as a centre unit.

So yes, form from November to February will be crucial.

Paddy Wallace is reported to have booked his holidays in Australia next year.

Just in case he's needed......

Roberts and BOD were superb for the Lions in 2009 Kia. A lot has changed since then but they were a positive of the tour.

Rava wrote:Paddy Wallace is reported to have booked his holidays in Australia next year.

Just in case he's needed......

Kidney isn't the Lions coach though.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:
I agree with what you say rodders. My worry for BOD is the lack of combinations in an Irish jersey.

You're worried?!! You should try being Irish! ....

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

Rava wrote:Paddy Wallace is reported to have booked his holidays in Australia next year.

Just in case he's needed......

Kidney isn't the Lions coach though.

Which is why he will get picked from the start

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I think you need more of an impact player than Earls Sin é. He has been shunted around for Ireland and has gained the unfortunate tag of utility player. Don't be mistaken though. When you pick a utility backline player you have a specific position in mind and think of the players starting who can shuffle around nearby. You can never plan for injuries so you must have cover but it's bad luck for example if both your flyhalves get injured. You can't have 3 specialist players there for that possibility.

I think BOD has a greater chance of starting IF form and fitness apply. Tuilagi has a greater chance of being a utility player though. You don't want to pick a jack of all trades as a utility player. You want to pick a player who can do damage in a certain position.

In the 2nd Test against SA, the Lions needed cover not impact with the number of injuries they had. Earls is one of the few wingers/centres around that has had a win over Australia.

In fact Earls has played against Australia 3 times and has never been on the losing side 2 wins & 1 draw. One of the wins was at centre.

Earl's position in the Ireland team is not guaranteed. By any manner of means.

And he was a "bolter" 4 years ago... hasn't progressed much IMO....


Way too many better, bigger options about.

I have started a new Article following the Whiff of Cordite blog update looking at potential backs.

https://www.606v2.com/t32427-the-lions-one-year-out-part-2#1391446

we see Sam Warburton going – you’ll need a fetcher to go up against Pocock, and Sam is also a captaincy contender

Oh really? Do you really need a fetcher to go up against Pocock?

Did Ireland have a fetcher when they defeated Australia at the RWC or did they simply impose their own game on the wallabies?

Didnt wales just lose 3-0 with "fetcher" pocock v "fetcher" warburton?!?

I'm not strongly arguing either way but playing devil's advocate on this assumption.

Assumptions are the mother and father of all feck ups lest we forget.

p.s i do not rate warburton as leadership material either GS or no. The way he Publicly hung priestland out to dry following defeat x3 to the wallabies made me want to

say it in private. say it one to one. say it in a team meeting but dont biatch and moan like that about a team mate in public.

take collective responsibility!!

NO to Lions captain for me and i think wales should be thinking twice too.

Earls utility is negated by much better options IMO...

Davies, Tuilagi etc are better options at 13, Cuthbert, 1/2p, Foden, North, Kearney, Ashton, Bowe, are all ahead of him on the wing, and most at 15.

Utility is one thing, being able to give the team something is another.

That's my point Sin. You have a choice of being conservative or aggressive in your bench options. If you go the safety first cover option then you better hope your A squad stay out on the pitch and are in front on the scoreboard. Or you can go for picking an impact player who will be a handful for the Aussie backs.

If Earls goes on as subsitute, I don't see the Aussie backline saying to one another, ´oh no, this guy has never lost to us the last 3 times he played us.´ He's a complete player but he won't drift in extra defenders or be seen as a danger man. To win against Australia, you have to go for all out attack. To me that means taking a gamble in your selections, notably on the bench. Who can win a game for us rather than plug a gap should be the criteria for selection.

PS If Wallace booked his holidays in Portugal again then I'd be worried. A holiday in Australia means no jet lag and he´d already be acclimatised.

Earls is a decent player across most positions he has suffered of being shifted about too much like Luke Fitz, his best position is wing or full back I think. He would be a decent option to have but there are currently better guys than him who should go down under. He is a very talented guy who has stifled somewhat.

Tri

Ireland beat Aus without a fetcher, Scotland beat them with 2, whats your point? All that says to me is that Aus are beatable.

Warburton should never have started a test on that tour, he was no where near match fit.

Tipuric was arguably the better player in the third test, when going head to head with Pocock.

The problem is the focus on Pocock IMO, Higginbotham was much more destructive and effective than anything Pocock did!

Did Ireland have a fetcher when they defeated Australia at the RWC or did they simply impose their own game on the wallabies?

True Tri and England beat the Aussies home and away with a backrow of Croft, Moody, Easter. Easter did the dog work with the forward at the set piece and rucks slowing or denying the Wallabies the ball and then Moody pressured the 10 with Croft scything down the backs in open field.

Ireland's backrow are all good at the breakdown, they don't need a fetcher as all are solid breakdown operators. We generate similar turnovers as most teams.

thebluesmancometh wrote:Tri

Ireland beat Aus without a fetcher, Scotland beat them with 2, whats your point? All that says to me is that Aus are beatable.

Warburton should never have started a test on that tour, he was no where near match fit.

Tipuric was arguably the better player in the third test, when going head to head with Pocock.

The problem is the focus on Pocock IMO, Higginbotham was much more destructive and effective than anything Pocock did!

Go back and re read what i wrote. I'm simply questioning the assumption made in the OP that we need to fight fetcher with fetcher. I dont think that is necessarily true. At all.

(I agree with you that to focus on the opposition too much is dangerous and to focus overly on one player in the other side is borderline submissive and mad).

There is no way in god's green earth that the B&I Lions should be a reactionary selection. With the talent available we should be picking the side to play the way we want to play. Let the australians worry about us not the other way round for goodness sakes!

Yeah but Thom, Ireland get away with that because O'Connell, BOD and Best are so good on the deck..... the lions pick Gray, Davies and Ford instead we'd be fooked..... .....

It's not evne that Rodders, our backrow are all very solid at the breakdown, none are outstanding but all are decent enough to form a cohesive unit.