The Lions One Year Out

First topic message reminder :

Our friends at Whiff of Cordite have opened the discussion of the make up of next years Lions Squad with a look at potential travellers in the Forwards.

http://whiffofcordite.com/2012/07/10/lions-2013-the-forwards/

Lions 2013 – the Forwards
Put on your Power of 4 bracelets, park your xenophobia, marvel at the fact Andy Powell and Ugo Monye toured last time out, and brace yourself for cringeworthy archive footage of Iain McGeechan bawling in 2009 – it’s the Lions!

Well, it will be in a year or so anyway. Last year, we looked at the runners and riders two years out, split (as this year) into forwards and backs – we got some things right (Ben Morgan and Dan Tuohy as ones to watch) and some laughably wrong (we said Rory Best was finished and mentioned Ooooooooooohh Matt Banahan).

One year on, we’re going to put our necks on the block (a little) – we’re going to call who is on the plane, who needs to do more, and guess some potential bolters … a fool’s errand if there ever was one. With Warren Gatland as head coach (as surely he will be), we think selection policy will be similar enough to last time, with form the key watchword. McGeechan and Gatty made it clear they wanted players who were finishing the season well, and were happy to leave out players they hugly respected (Ryan Jones) in favour of those who were on top of their form (Alan Quinlan). So we figure it’s not worth trying to name a 35-man panel at this juncture. Today it’s the forwards and Thursday the backs.

Loosehead prop:

On the plane: Fresh from a top notch season with Leinster and Ireland where he emerged as a pack leader, scrumagger of note and destructive carrier, DJ Church can be pencilled in as a starter right now.

Work to do: Gethin Jenkins was favourite to start and a certainty to tour just 6 months ago, but was injured and then out-performed by Paul James in the second half of last season. If James continues his upward trajectory and Jenkins doesn’t improve, James will tour in his stead. Alex Corbisiero had a solid season for England last year – if he holds on to his shirt, he’s going.

Bolters: Prop isn’t a position where you emerge from nowhere so don’t expect a less-established name to go to Oz, but Ryan Grant rescued his career with a move to Glasgow last year, and had a good summer tour, just like Scotland. If he ousts Chunk from the national team, he has a chance.

Hooker:

On the plane: Despite what we said last year, Rory Best is going – he’s been immense for Ireland and Ulster this year. In 2009, Ross Ford toured as a token Scot – this time, he will tour by right – his offloading game for Embra in this years HEC was incredible, and his set-piece work is solid.

Work to do: Dylan Hartley has never quite convinced at the highest level – every time you think he has cracked it, he puts out a performance so bad you go back to square one. Wales have been chopping and changing at hooker for the last year – Matthew Rees has generally been first choice, but has not been playing well – if any of Huw Bennett, Richard Hibbard or Ken Owens pull out a good quality and consistent season and get the shirt for the Six Nations, they will go.

Bolters: He will shortly turn Irish, and multi-HEC winning Richardt Strauss has been a key part of Leinster’s success – although small, he is a dynamic player and looks well-tailored to be put up against the powder-puff Wallaby forwards.

Tighthead Prop:

On the plane: The best scrumagging tighthead in Lions contention is Adam Jones – add his previous Lions experience and Gatty’s trust, and he’s in. Dan Cole is a yellow card machine, but he is improving every year – he had a good tour to SA as well – he’ll make it.

Work to do: There are no Sunday tests, but Euan Murray still need to do better than last year – as it stands he is behind the technically excellent Mike Ross.

Bolters: Again, tighthead props don’t come from nowhere, so don’t expect too many surprises barring injury. Deccie Fitzpatrick stepped up to a very high level this June and didn’t look too out of place – if John Afoa or Ross get crocked, he will come into the reckoning.

Second Row:

On the Plane: Richie Gray could fall into a big hole and spend 11 months getting out and still make the tour – he’s simply fantastic and we love him unconditionally. Captain last time out, Paul O’Connell makes his province and country twice as good when he is in the team – he is a captaincy contender (Gatty likes a meaty captain).

Work to do: After what looked like a breakthrough 2010/11, Courtney Lawes had his 2011/12 ruined by injury – if he comes back near his form of the season before last, he should still make it. The move to Perpignan may have come at the wrong time for Luke Charteris – Bradley Davies and Alun Wyn Jones had good summer tours, and Ian Evans is still playing a t a high level – at least two of that quartet will be missing out. If Donnacha Ryan or Dan Tuohy can continue last years progression, both are in with a shout – more likely Ryan, given how easily he has adopted to the international stage. Geoff Parling is a decent lineout operator, but there would appear to be better options unless he makes more impact around the park.

Bolters: As far as we know, there are no Eben Etzebeth’s waiting to bust out of a reserve team anywhere, but Iain Henderson looks the real deal at Ulster – it’s more than likely too early, but Gatty hasn’t shied from picking raw and talented youngsters before (albeit mostly piano players rather than piano shifters).

Backrow:

On the Plane: This sector is ridiculously competitive, and some big names are going to miss out. As it stands, we see Sam Warburton going – you’ll need a fetcher to go up against Pocock, and Sam is also a captaincy contender. Stephen Ferris offers twitch power and strength unlike anything else in the hempisphere, and Chris Robshaw is ideal dirt-track leadership material – we think these three are in the lead right now.

Work to do: At the back of the pack, one of Jamie Heaslip, Ben Morgan and Toby Faletau is possibly going to miss out – Heaslip has the experience of SA in his favour, and has had a better year than most give him credit for, but is not firing on all cylinders. Morgan was England’s best player in the Six Nations but had a difficult SA tour, and Faletau carries more ball than anyone in the Welsh (Grand Slam) pack.

On the flanks, Sean O’Brien also carries well and he can play right across the backrow – that’s a plus on a busy tour. Looking at exclusive blindsides, Dan Lydiate will tackle until the cows come home; whereas Dave Denton can carry destrictively as well. Firmly ensconsed in the Stephen Jones Club is Tom Croft – he’s great in open field and scored spectacular tries in last years Six Nations, but he also got bumped badly by Dave Denton and dumped into touch by Paddy Wallace (Paddy Wallace!) in Ravers - he’ll need to improve. Or what about nearly-England captain Tom Wood?

If fetching is your thing, why, we can offer you a Justin Tipuric – Pro12 winner with the Ospreys and able deputy for Big Sam – or Ross Rennie, breakdown king in a HEC semi-final. And we haven’t mentioned John Barclay yet. The least you can say is there is depth!

Bolters: He may not have looked ready in New Zealand, but Peter O’Mahony has raw talent – the arrival of CJ Stander will free him to work on improving his game at 6 or 8, and you might see good results if the pressure if kept off. The best openside of the lot is probably Steffon Armitage, the Top14 POTY – a visible HEC campaign and he could make the plane.

Are there any obvious exclusions from their list?
Who would you pick as captain?
Any other bolters?

I will up date with the back choices on Thursday.

Duigers wrote:Earl's position in the Ireland team is not guaranteed. By any manner of means.

And he was a "bolter" 4 years ago... hasn't progressed much IMO....


Way too many better, bigger options about.

No players position is guaranteed.
Still, since his Lions tour he has made every ireland match day squad (mostly as a starter).

12 tries in 26 starts for Ireland. George North has 11 tries in 23 starts and he hasn't been moved around from billy to jack.

What're the odds that people are going to spend this next autumn series and Six Nations cheering for certain players to have a miserable time so that their preferred choices look like front runners?

I'd take POC, though for me he isn't a captaincy candidate. For one thing he's not first choice skipper for his country and I rate Rory Best as a better deputy to BOD. For another when was the last time POC impressed as Lions or Ireland skipper? He's filled in when BOD is injured but more often than not has fallen short when doing so. That's not to mention his unspectacular showings in 09 when he had the armband.

I'd also be surprised if Warburton missed out, though it might be a little too soon to award him the captaincy. I'd of course be chuffed if he did get it this time but give it four more years and provided he has continued to show leadership quality and enjoy success throughout that time he'd almost be nailed on to skipper the 2017 tour imo.

Dylan Hartley for captain.

As a Kiwi he'd have extra motivation to get his teeth into the Aussies.

So Waldrom to start as well then HERSH?

HERSH wrote:As a Kiwi he'd have extra motivation to get his teeth into the Aussies.

Pun intended?

Thomond wrote:Earls is a decent player across most positions he has suffered of being shifted about too much like Luke Fitz, his best position is wing or full back I think. He would be a decent option to have but there are currently better guys than him who should go down under. He is a very talented guy who has stifled somewhat.

Manu Tualagi (who has never benched internationally or played wing) or George North (who only ever plays on the wing) are not going to be able to play 10 games in 5 weeks, which is what the tour consists of

On the last tour, even DOC got to captain a mid-week team - thats how short they were of leaders.

As far as we know, there are no Eben Etzebeth’s

Gary Gold is now coaching bath...so could have a HUGE influence on both Dave Attwood and Carl Fearns...amongst others.

If he can get them to their best...(not so much Fearns as back row is flooded with talent) but Attwood could be a challenger...

Knowsit17 wrote:What're the odds that people are going to spend this next autumn series and Six Nations cheering for certain players to have a miserable time so that their preferred choices look like front runners?

I'd take POC, though for me he isn't a captaincy candidate. For one thing he's not first choice skipper for his country and I rate Rory Best as a better deputy to BOD. For another when was the last time POC impressed as Lions or Ireland skipper? He's filled in when BOD is injured but more often than not has fallen short when doing so. That's not to mention his unspectacular showings in 09 when he had the armband.

I'd also be surprised if Warburton missed out, though it might be a little too soon to award him the captaincy. I'd of course be chuffed if he did get it this time but give it four more years and provided he has continued to show leadership quality and enjoy success throughout that time he'd almost be nailed on to skipper the 2017 tour imo.

No disrespect to Rory Best (as it wasn't his fault that Ross got injured), but he was the captain for the England game in the 6Ns when the pack just didn't show up, so I don't know where you get the idea he is a better captain. Best doesn't captain Ulster - Muller does so its rare enough you would see him captaining a team.

Would you judge BOD as a failure of a captain because Ireland didn't do too well in the last test in the absence of POC?

Martyn Williams after the last tour: Paul has been absolutely immense on this tour and is the best captain I have ever worked with. The way he has handled himself in the last week of the tour speaks volumes about the man.

I don't think Paul gets the credit he deserves. When you play with or against him you realise just how good a player he is.
He does all the unglamorous work at close quarters and has an unbelievable engine. People in the stands don't necessarily see that.

As a captain, he is absolutely inspirational - we all have so much respect for him.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/rugby_union/8135211.stm

Best was captain of Ulster until last season if i am not mistaken.

BOD doesnt captain Leinster. would you rule him out of the captaincy for that

I'd rule BOD out of the tour all together!!!

Have to agree with bluesman - by next year BOD will need a motorbike to keep pace with the Aussie backs.

The reason BOD has to tour is because he is pretty much the only centre in the NH to offer any sort of creativity.

My only contribution to this is that if he carries on progressing at the rate he has so far and gets plenty of AI game time and 6N's time Joe Marler could snatcha spot on the plane as a bolter, Gatland could really get the best out of him and his offloading game.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:The reason BOD has to tour is because he is pretty much the only centre in the NH to offer any sort of creativity.

That's not true, i've seen plenty of programmes with Henson getting creative.

Rory

He can be creative as he wants, but he is bordering on, and will be a weak link in the defencive line! Beale, and JOC would love to isolate him one on one on a wrap around move after Mccabe has tied in the back row and 12 on a crash! If BOD is found with a forward inside him he'll be ripe for the picking!

On a side note does any one think this tour could see a record low number of English players on it?

Looking at the teams with both eyes open I can see very few English players that demand inclusion. Maybe just Cole, Youngs and Flood (although I know there will be more then that).

And if that is the case will the following 6N's be between Eng and Fra then...

thebluesmancometh wrote:Rory

He can be creative as he wants, but he is bordering on, and will be a weak link in the defencive line! Beale, and JOC would love to isolate him one on one on a wrap around move after Mccabe has tied in the back row and 12 on a crash! If BOD is found with a forward inside him he'll be ripe for the picking!

Are you joking. BOD is one of the best defenders around.

I don't think O'Driscoll is a weakness in defence though. His positional play is still world class, regardless of how much pace he has lost. Rarely will a player get on his outside and beat him, because he reads it so well.

In a set line, and with a full backline around him I have no qualms about his defencive capabilities.

But this is test rugby, against maybe the worlds sharpest backline. They will not attack when the defence is set, they will drag us around the park until we're out of sorts, then strike! Warburton was made to look like a lumbering lock, despite him being a pretty sharp and quick guy.

On a scramble there is nothing but pace, in an unorganised defence pace retreives the situation, Ioane will haunt BOD out wide!

like he did last year.

how much pace do you think BOD has lost????

didnt realise he was not able to run anymore

It's not on defence where BOD needs to raise his game. He is a backline general like Smith or AAC who not only puts himself in the right position but also his team mates around him. What he didn't show much of in NZ was what he usually does on attack.

yappysnap wrote:On a side note does any one think this tour could see a record low number of English players on it?

Looking at the teams with both eyes open I can see very few English players that demand inclusion. Maybe just Cole, Youngs and Flood (although I know there will be more then that).

And if that is the case will the following 6N's be between Eng and Fra then...

Possibly all correct. However England are the team about whom there is most justifiable excitement. We have the youngest side with more improvement in us (from a starting position of being a side who came 2nd in last yrs 6N and can beat Sh sides home and away) between now and the Lions tour. So..there could be a few more Englishmen by then than you might think.

Whatever about his pace, but BOD biggest strenght is surely his defense. Both his positioning and tackling are superb. The Aussie backline we faced in the WC was only missing Ioane, but it did include JOC, Beale, AAC, Cooper and Genia. We kept them to 6 points.

Sin é wrote:

Knowsit17 wrote:What're the odds that people are going to spend this next autumn series and Six Nations cheering for certain players to have a miserable time so that their preferred choices look like front runners?

I'd take POC, though for me he isn't a captaincy candidate. For one thing he's not first choice skipper for his country and I rate Rory Best as a better deputy to BOD. For another when was the last time POC impressed as Lions or Ireland skipper? He's filled in when BOD is injured but more often than not has fallen short when doing so. That's not to mention his unspectacular showings in 09 when he had the armband.

I'd also be surprised if Warburton missed out, though it might be a little too soon to award him the captaincy. I'd of course be chuffed if he did get it this time but give it four more years and provided he has continued to show leadership quality and enjoy success throughout that time he'd almost be nailed on to skipper the 2017 tour imo.

No disrespect to Rory Best (as it wasn't his fault that Ross got injured), but he was the captain for the England game in the 6Ns when the pack just didn't show up, so I don't know where you get the idea he is a better captain. Best doesn't captain Ulster - Muller does so its rare enough you would see him captaining a team.

Would you judge BOD as a failure of a captain because Ireland didn't do too well in the last test in the absence of POC?

Martyn Williams after the last tour: Paul has been absolutely immense on this tour and is the best captain I have ever worked with. The way he has handled himself in the last week of the tour speaks volumes about the man.

I don't think Paul gets the credit he deserves. When you play with or against him you realise just how good a player he is.
He does all the unglamorous work at close quarters and has an unbelievable engine. People in the stands don't necessarily see that.

As a captain, he is absolutely inspirational - we all have so much respect for him.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/rugby_union/8135211.stm

That's Williams' opinion and whether or not he's right I can only go on what I've seen personally. That is to say that POC was and still is a good Munster leader. However I remember him stepping up to receive the captaincy when BOD was ruled out against France in 2007 (a much-hyped tournament for Ireland at the time). The Irish couldn't muster a win and had their GS dreams shattered that year as a result.

Then there's this year when Ireland had POC from the start of the Six Nations, were outplayed at home by Wales and wasted a great opportunity to win in Paris. As I said there's also the last tour to look at, during which time POC captained the side and failed to impress in doing so. Only in the 3rd test, when the series was already decided, did he play at all to his usual standard.

This would indicate O'Connell being a great player, which he is, and a good skipper to a certain degree, though not universally. And if you want to go by evidence as I do, it would appear that POC isn't as good a captain at international level as for his club. This is why I've been very sceptical as to why he's so hyped up as a potential candidate this time around.

BOD has lost a little pace over the last 12 months (rumours are 1 tenth off his 10m, which is a large amount) but also new guys on the scene are stronger quicker and more agile than those before them.

Ioane is a very agile and his acceleration is immense. All it takes is a few inches to get on one of BODs shoulders and draw the 12/winger in and it's game over!

Where Tuilagi can be coached into a better defencive unit over the next 12 months, BOD CANNOT gain acceleration, speed, or agility.

Infact at his age he is probably downsizing his training to cope, and adjusting it to maintain the physical capabilities he has left. He will play less rugby over the next 12 months and therefore every part of his game will suffer.

Look at Shane and Martyn Williams, a season or 2 beyond where they should've retired and they fell off the cliff.

Mickado

You kept them to 6 points because of the backrows carrying, and destructive defencive work, and tight 5's breakdown!!

thebluesmancometh wrote:BOD has lost a little pace over the last 12 months (rumours are 1 tenth off his 10m, which is a large amount) but also new guys on the scene are stronger quicker and more agile than those before them.

Ioane is a very agile and his acceleration is immense. All it takes is a few inches to get on one of BODs shoulders and draw the 12/winger in and it's game over!

Where Tuilagi can be coached into a better defencive unit over the next 12 months, BOD CANNOT gain acceleration, speed, or agility.

Infact at his age he is probably downsizing his training to cope, and adjusting it to maintain the physical capabilities he has left. He will play less rugby over the next 12 months and therefore every part of his game will suffer.

Look at Shane and Martyn Williams, a season or 2 beyond where they should've retired and they fell off the cliff.

Where did you find that stat???? Thin air??

thebluesmancometh wrote:Mickado

You kept them to 6 points because of the backrows carrying, and destructive defencive work, and tight 5's breakdown!!

If that was the case then we just start the Irish backrow and it doesn't matter who's playing center.

HA HA HA HA HA

I partly agree, I would play Ferris and SOB at 6/8!

Add that carrying ability to Roberts and Tuilagi in the centres!

You can't avoid Pocock, theres no point hiding, your better off ramming strike runners down his throat!!!

Caoim

Just rumours in the SnC community. Not sure how true it is, was told by a friend in UCD.

thebluesmancometh wrote:HA HA HA HA HA

I partly agree, I would play Ferris and SOB at 6/8!

Add that carrying ability to Roberts and Tuilagi in the centres!

You can't avoid Pocock, theres no point hiding, your better off ramming strike runners down his throat!!!

Caoim

Just rumours in the SnC community. Not sure how true it is, was told by a friend in UCD.

i don't buy it.

anyway its a year away and we all know alot happens in a year.

You don't buy what?

And thats exactly my point, physiologically BOD cannot improve in the next 12 months, but he can quite easily deteriorate and/or fall off the cliff.

IMO Davies was the 13 of the 6N and Tuilagi the 13 of the summer!

i don't buy some rumour that you heard from a friend in UCD that he has lost all that pace in the space of 12 months.

I seen an interview with BOD where he’s said that people have claimed he’s lost a “yard or two of pace” but he went on to say that the stats don’t back that up.

You don't have to buy it, thats why it is a rumour. The actual may be somewhere between 0.6 and 1.4 in reality, and I do know of 30 year olds who have lost near 2 tenths within 12 months!

I think he still has a bit of explosion, but overall his pace has gone down somewhat. He showed a nice burst in the ulster v Leinster Rabo game towards the end of the season. He made a nice break.

thebluesmancometh wrote:
And thats exactly my point, physiologically BOD cannot improve in the next 12 months, but he can quite easily deteriorate and/or fall off the cliff.

Thats only true if you are assuming he's at peak fitness now? He can't get quicker but he can improve his fitness and strength at 33.

I agree though that the other players have much more capacity to improve but that doesn't necessarily mean they will, nor that BOD will decline in that period.

Shane Williams decline was accelerated by the fact that Wales changed their gameplan to one he didn't fit, and when he didn't have the carrot of playing for Wales his motivation quickly dropped at the Ospreys. These things aren't always just physiological.

Mickado

He's hardly going to tout that he's on the decline is he.

Rumours are just that obviously, you take with a pinch of salt.

But for the record BOD will be on a deteriorating training schedule, based around maintenance opposed to gains. He has been and will continue to play less rugby over the last and next 12 months, will be more susceptible to injury, and will generally decrease in hormone production, muscle fibres, and enzyme activity.

thebluesmancometh wrote:Mickado

He's hardly going to tout that he's on the decline is he.

Rumours are just that obviously, you take with a pinch of salt.

But for the record BOD will be on a deteriorating training schedule, based around maintenance opposed to gains. He has been and will continue to play less rugby over the last and next 12 months, will be more susceptible to injury, and will generally decrease in hormone production, muscle fibres, and enzyme activity.

can you tell the future???

you seem to have alot of knowledge about what he will be doing training wise in the next year

BOD's mind is as sharp as ever. He'll see things other players won't see, it's just a question of whether he still has that burst of speed to do anything about it.

Rodders

Your right of course, there are 100 differing reasons for performance declines.

But my point is Davies and Tuilagi, who IMO are at BOD's level and have outperformed him recently, will continue to be conditioned and coached to improve, where BOD is training to maintain.

Now don't let this turn into a witch hunt, I'm not slating BOD, I am merely stating IMHO he is 3/4th choice 13 at present and has a very long 12 months before the selection process, I don't see how he'll be able to compete.

But hey I've been wrong before!

caoim

I don't have that knowledge, but I know the physiological responses to age, have seen maturing players between the ages of 28 and 34 adapt their training schedules to combat phys losses, and know a number of S n C coaches who do the same thing. Including one I worked with in the Leinster region (no not the head SnC coach at Leinster)

And regarding the mind comment, reaction times generally deteriorate, as do focus ability.

BOD is on the slide, we all know that, but to what degree is the question. Knowone knows except the few who work with him on a daily basis, infact I'd say they were much more informed than BOD himself.

Also I do know of a few sports phys, SnC coaches, and psychs who don't quite give the full picture to a client/sportsman.

Not sure how I feel about that mind

thebluesmancometh wrote:caoim

I don't have that knowledge, but I know the physiological responses to age, have seen maturing players between the ages of 28 and 34 adapt their training schedules to combat phys losses, and know a number of S n C coaches who do the same thing. Including one I worked with in the Leinster region (no not the head SnC coach at Leinster)

And regarding the mind comment, reaction times generally deteriorate, as do focus ability.

BOD is on the slide, we all know that, but to what degree is the question. Knowone knows except the few who work with him on a daily basis, infact I'd say they were much more informed than BOD himself.

Fair enough. think we are straying from the point. we will have to agree to disagree on this one.

This is the forwards thread anyway!

thebluesmancometh wrote:Rodders

Your right of course, there are 100 differing reasons for performance declines.

But my point is Davies and Tuilagi, who IMO are at BOD's level and have outperformed him recently, will continue to be conditioned and coached to improve, where BOD is training to maintain.

Ok well I do believe you have a point in terms of BOD potentially declining and the others improving..that is not inevitable though and right now is just based on statistical projections and hypothetical scenarios. Theres no guarantee BOD will decline any more than the others will improve or that the reverse could happen.

I don't agree that the other 2 are ahead of BOD right now, all things considered..but thats subjective so we will have to agree to disagree on that.. I don't think any of the 13s have been great post 6N and BOD's HEC performances plus the second test in NZ would be enough to convince me that for now he is still the best 13 available.

Ye we got a bit off track!

thebluesmancometh wrote:caoim

I don't have that knowledge, but I know the physiological responses to age, have seen maturing players between the ages of 28 and 34 adapt their training schedules to combat phys losses

Oh yeah you want to send me some of those?! I'm falling apart here!

rodders wrote:

thebluesmancometh wrote:caoim

I don't have that knowledge, but I know the physiological responses to age, have seen maturing players between the ages of 28 and 34 adapt their training schedules to combat phys losses

Oh yeah you want to send me some of those?! I'm falling apart here!

Me too, altho it may be a wee bit late!

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:This is the forwards thread anyway!

Thank you mate

Like our scrum halfs, there isn't a consistently good hooker. Any Welsh hooker plus Ross Ford have the potential to over club any throw in massively. All decent scrummagers but have big pitfalls. Hartley may be the most likely starter especially as he seems to be a bit more level-headed these days (last ban excepted obviously)
No matter how is picked in the back row, they will be excellent but getting the blend, whatever the overall tactics may be, is crucial.
Out of sheer mischief making, I would like to see Lawes and Gray together as they could wreak havoc. Gray is bigger but Lawes can just look evil as well as scary