The Lions One Year Out Part 2

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This is the Whiff guys thoughts on the Backs then

Lions – The Backs

On Tuesday, we looked at the forwards putting themselves forward for Lions selection. Today we see which backs should start learning the words to Power of Four, the fondly remembered Lions anthem.

Scrum Half

Already Packed his Spider-Bite Cream: Mike Phillips. At this juncture, no player is more inked in to the Lions test jersey than the big Welsh number nine. Not the most technically gifted, but a decent passer, his main strength is his running game and ability to link with his forwards. Plus, he’s already impressed on a Lions tour.

Work to do: Ben Youngs would be the obvious and desired deputy to Phillips – someone who offers something completely different, and a potential impact replacement late in matches, upping the pace and running tap penalties. He appears to have recovered his game after a difficult period. Danny Care mixes the good with the bad, but has had a fine season with Harlequins. You suspect Gatland would like Conor Murray in the panel as an insurance plan against Phillips, but he needs to show his best form. He needs to show greater speed off the base, but has a good pass once it gets moving.

Any bolters? Ospreys’ scrum half Rhys Webb is a smashing player, and looks the most capable of making a late burst.

Fly Half

Already Reading His Lonely Planet Guide: Johnny Sexton. With his goal-kicking yips behind him for Ireland, Johnny Sexton was one of the few successes of the Irish summer tour. Still not quite as regal in green as in blue, but we suspect Gatland is the sort of coach who’ll cajole the best out of him. Should be the test starter.

Work to do: We’re still not convinced by Rhys Priestland by a long way. Gatland seems to be a fan, though, even if he’s taken him off place-kicking duty for Wales. If Leigh Halfpenny cannot get into the side at full-back ahead of Rob Kearney, it will compromise his test credentials. Toby Flood and Owen Farrell offer slightly more stable talents than the hot-and-cold Welshman, and both will be on hand to provide solid back-up to Sexton should Gatland choose dependable place-kicking over more mercurial abilities.

Any bolters? A couple. A certain D. Cipriani will be back on English shores this season with Sale. Gatland was his one-time mentor back in the day at Wasps. It remains unlikely that the one-time next big thing will have the discipline and defensive willingness to push for a place on the tour, but how marvellous it would be if he could. The incumbent next-big-thing, George Ford is another who could make a late dash, but needs to depose Toby Flood at Leicester first.

Centres

Surfboard at the ready: The only centre who looks anything close to nailed-on is Wales’ Big Bopper Jamie Roberts. We had him in our ‘work to do’ section last year, but he has done plenty of that in the last twelve months. Hard runner, good hands, when he’s on song he’s close to unplayable; he’ll be a key man for the Lions and nigh on irreplaceable.

Work to do: Can Brian O’Driscoll see out his career with a victorious Lions tour? He would love nothing more. The old ledge-bag looked sprightly for Leinster but played a touch fast and loose in New Zealand. If his body holds together, he’ll surely do enough to make the plane. Oooooooooooohhh Manu Tuilagi and JJV Davies offer more - how shall we put this? - straight-line tendencies, but both would offer a serious threat to the Aussie gainline.

Any Bolters? Quality inside centres to offer competition to Roberts are thin on the ground, and it’s possible his understudy for Wales, Ashley Beck, will do likewise for the Lions. Performance in the Pro12 final underlined his quality.

Wings

Wine-tasting guide packed: George North. There’s no shortage of quality on the wings, with all four countries putting up quality players for examination, but the big, bruising Welshman is top of the bunch. No bosh-merchant, his skill, distribution and movement belie his monstrous physique.

Work to do: A large field. From Ireland there’s Keith Earls and Tommy Bowe. Earls’ ability to play centre could work to his advantage, and he has a Lions tour under his belt. Bowe excelled in 2009, and is Ireland’s best attacker. Wales’ other wing Alex Cuthbert (another monster) has timed his rise from obscurity to test class wing impeccably. Chris Ashton’s star has waned a little, but he’ll be looking to reassert himself at Saracens. And flying Dutchman (via Scotland) Tim Visser is in with a shout. He has only one Six Nations to show he can handle international rugby, but he only has the hopes of a nation riding on it, so no pressure, laddie.

Bolters: This is the most bolter-friendly position on the paddock; youngsters can quickly emerge and put themselves in the frame in a short space of time – it’s also a position where confidence and form have the biggest role to play, so Gatland might look past reputation and take a punt on those who are banging in tries. Christian Wade, Craig Gilroy and Charlie Sharples are just three of many to keep an eye on.

Full Back

Planning a visit to Ayers Rock: Another area of real depth for the Lions, with all four nations putting up a genuine contender. But Rob Kearney, after his annus mirabilis, is at the top of the tree. Outstanding performances on last Lions tour won’t be forgotten either.

Work to do: It’ll be at most two from three terrific international players. Leigh Halfpenny has a mule of a boot and while he isn’t the tallest, is a beautiful runner and dependable catcher. England’s Ben Foden is a shade off his 2010-11 form, but he is a handsome footballer in every sense of the word. Already making a bolt is Scotland’s Stuart Hogg, having been eventually let loose for Scotland this Six Nations. Greased lightning over the turf, his pace would be a real asset.

Any bolters: Felix Jones was mentioned in our comments section this time last year, but injury has been cruel to him. Gloucester’s lightning-fast Johnny May is an exciting talent, but can he break into the England team to make an impression?

Just Eleven Months To Go

A year out from the tour, the augurs are good. Wales ran Australia very close in the recent series, and were painfully unlucky to come out on the losing side in the latter two matches. Surely augmenting that side with a handful of daring Irish, granite-hewn Englishmen, and a giant peroxide-blonde Scot will tilt the balance? Warren Gatland has already been on one successful, albeit losing, tour and his task will be to deliver a harmonious, happy, competitive squad, similar to 2009. Therer’s usually little enough you can do on the tactical innovation side in such a short timeframe, so don’t expect too much variation on the Welsh run-hard-run-straight gameplan, with Mike Phillips directing a brutish pack of forwards and Sexton looking to bring the likes of George North and Tim Visser into play as much as possible. With quality scrummagers, no short of backrow options and plenty of good attacking threats in the backline, this is the Lions’ best chance of a series win since… ooooooh… 1997. Memo to all: don’t get injured.

At this moment in time then Sexton has to be the No1 Fly half but its a long season injuries etc.

Liked look of Farrell in the 6 nations but seemed to struggle in the summer tour and I feel Flood is back in the driving seat for England so how much game time will Farrell get.

George

WTF are you talking about, Genia and Phillips head to head? If Genia had played off 40% possesion over 3 tests and very much back foot ball constantly he wouldn't have looked so impressive. Phillips had to spend most of his time pushing forwards on, and dragging the ball out of the rucks.

I am no Phillips fan but you can't judge one guys performance so out of context!!!

And IMO Youngs and Dickson are well and trully behind Blair and Phillips, Youngs stands a chance if he gets back to the form he can produce, but I can't see Dickson beating the 5/6 SH's ahead of him!

thebluesmancometh wrote:WTF are you talking about, Genia and Phillips head to head? If Genia had played off 40% possesion over 3 tests and very much back foot ball constantly he wouldn't have looked so impressive. Phillips had to spend most of his time pushing forwards on, and dragging the ball out of the rucks.

I get what you're saying, and you're right that matches viewed in isolation are never conclusive. However, if we can't view a three-match series in which the proposed Lions 9 is squared off against the incumbent Wallaby 9 as an indicator of what will happen in the Lions tour, what are we supposed to do? I'm all for slaughtering a goat and inspecting entrails, but that involves a major clean up and I'm fresh out of Bounty.

Philips had an opportunity to show that he could live with his likely opposite number, and he failed to do so.

Not that there's a better alternative, mind...

And in what area did Genia beat Phillips head to head, remembering that Genias tight 5 were dominant throughout, Genia had quick go forward ball throughout, and generally, and I hasten to use the phrase but it is most apt in this case, had a bit of an armchair ride.

You see 9's can only work off what their pack has given them, at the breakdown Wales were dominated, and as I said Phillips spent his games on the back foot, and having to wrestle for the ball on most occasions, where Genia had a neatly presented ball regularly, and much more of it!

The key to living with Genia and Cooper is disrupting the breakdown and not allow them quick clean ball, Genia wasn't disrupted.

Therefore IMO Phillips wasn't given any sort of chance V Genia, infact I'm a lock and I could've played 9 for Aus that day and looked better than Phillips.

Peel. Laidlaw. Youngs. Danny Care

ones all but retired, ones left the 9 jersey behind him, ones got too many off field issues.

Youngs is the contender at present IMO, if he can just get back some of his original form.

Surprise bolter for me? Knoyle. He is tenacious and would relish the chance to get in Genias face and disrupt him.

My certs, at this juncture are:

15. Kearney - backed up by Foden

10. Sexton.

12. Roberts

9. Philips

1. Healy

All best in position. Barring injuries. The rest are open imo.

Not sure I agree with any of those, sorry mate.

Gibson - I don't think Kearney is a cert with Halfpenny around. He is looking very good, plus he is a great goal kicker.

If Bowe is on song I think he is also a cert.

Don't agree with many of those CJ.

Kearney right now is almost there, best of the 3 options IMO.

Healy - no way cert. Jenkins may be evens if not a touch ahead, and Corbs/Marler had great league campaigns.

Phillips just needs a small injury and the likes of Youngs, Blair, Laidlaw (cover9,10) Knoyle, Murray, Dickson could all pip him.

Again I think Sextons best in his position, but if Flood gains some form could easily surpass him.

Roberts, well he could not play a minute of rugby and probably travel.

Healy is a cert if he can keep playing as he is. He was by far the best prop on the tours.

Halfpenny is not half the player Kearney is. This reminds me of the Byrne v Kearney discussion, we had on BBC 606, last Tour. Kearney proved a far superior player to Byrne on that one. Although it took an injury to convince. He's back and even better than he was then. He's a cert. So is Healy. So is Roberts. So is Philips. So is Sexton.

Am I repeating myself? Its come with age. And experience.

Just pick the rest of em will ye?

I think Kearney is better personally but the fact that Halfpenny is a goal kicker might give him the edge when it comes to selection.

Kearney will probably start but he's not a certain and 1/2p is a fantastic player who has been brilliant for Wales over the past year. Phillips may be Gatland's favourite but he is not, IMO, the best choice to play for against AUS. Roberts may be popped by the like of his own teammate JD2 or BOD at 12. Healy should start ATM but a year is a long time and his rivals are all close to him. Same with Sexton who I'd start but may well be overtaken by Flood etc. Kearney is the closest to a certain but over a year nobody is certain. He could have an awful 6N

Course, 1/2p can play wing

Halfpenny is good backup. Foden is a better all round 15 imo.

It all depends on how Gats wants to play. For the 2nd-choice FB decision, that is.

ChequeredJersey wrote:Kearney will probably start but he's not a certain and 1/2p is a fantastic player who has been brilliant for Wales over the past year. Phillips may be Gatland's favourite but he is not, IMO, the best choice to play for against AUS. Roberts may be popped by the like of his own teammate JD2 or BOD at 12. Healy should start ATM but a year is a long time and his rivals are all close to him. Same with Sexton who I'd start but may well be overtaken by Flood etc. Kearney is the closest to a certain but over a year nobody is certain. He could have an awful 6N

Chequered, true. So much can happen in a year. We've seen it again & again, over the years.

So this article is too soon. But right now, they would be my choices.

P.S. Sexton will never be overtaken by Flood. He just doesn't have in it him. Sorry. Whilst Flood and Priestland both flatter to deceive and fluctuate in form - Sexton has grown stronger. He's a cert. As of now. As long as he doesnt get injured.

I don't think Healy's rivals are close to him though. Like I said he was by some margin the best loose head in the tours.

Flood overtake Sexton? Seriously? Sexton is far better than him. Sexton will be pushed by Madigan and improve a fair bit. He is a talented guy who has room and the ability to improve.

Warburton folks. Bigged-up last year as Lions Captain. Is he the real thing?
I thought so. Love a proper 7 (we'll need it v Pocock) and he is worthy of being a captain. The guy has something about him. Honesty.

But...

SOB will keep him under the cosh. Warbs seems to have slipped a bit but is still a damn fine player. Tipuric I think could be better on the deck but Warburton is more than just a breakdown guy. Tipuric is also a bolter.

Rennie is probably better than all of those guys at 7 Thomond.

He is certainly up there but he needs to keep pounding the rock. He has been around a while and he did have a stellar year last year but can he keep it up next year?

He hasn't been around that long really, as far as I know he was out for an entire season not so long ago. He has apparently had major problems with injuries in the past. Maybe a Scottish poster on here can share some insight on that.

He will get better and better IMO. As will O'Brien. Warburton unfortunately seems to be going downhill for whatever reason.

Ross Rennie is 26 I think?

SOB at 6. His best position. Let's not go there. He's just filling it at 7 for Ireland. It restricts his natural game, imo.

Yeah. I can see SOB, Rennie, Heaslip.

Donnacha Ryan. Never been on a Lions tour like POC. But, I'd have him before POC now. Great player. Proved he had the stuff v the best side on the Planet. Stood out against them. A Lions-designate.

Well considering POC is currently injured I think all locks are ahead of him! He was playing well before the injury. Will be considered there.

Thomond wrote:Ross Rennie is 26 I think?

He is, but he made his debut in 2008 then was injured for two seasons before returning in the autumn of 2010. In 2011 he managed to replace Barclay for the starting shirt. So technically he hasn't been around much.

Ah right, there were times when he didn't light the world on fire, let's see how he goes this year before crowning him.

Gibson wrote:SOB at 6. His best position. Let's not go there. He's just filling it at 7 for Ireland. It restricts his natural game, imo.

Yeah. I can see SOB, Rennie, Heaslip.

Donnacha Ryan. Never been on a Lions tour like POC. But, I'd have him before POC now. Great player. Proved he had the stuff v the best side on the Planet. Stood out against them. A Lions-designate.

Well Gibson, even you can't deny that SOB was fantastic against NZ. The NZers were very impressed with him. He managed to outplay McCaw twice, something even "natural" 7s can't do. I don't disagree though that he could be better at 6. Or maybe 8.

Ireland don't need a natural 7 and with the right combo of players, the Lions probably don't need one. Although there's a good chance the Lions have one as some of the best flankers in B&I are 7s.

Thomond wrote:Ireland don't need a natural 7 and with the right combo of players, the Lions probably don't need one. Although there's a good chance the Lions have one as some of the best flankers in B&I are 7s.

Tell that to Pocock. He'll have a field-day. One of the main reasons Ireland caused that shock at RWC 2011, was because he was injured. We all know this dont we?

We do. Watch Ireland v NZ the first two tests, the Ireland backrow and SOB dealt with McCaw. Why? They worked as a team and a unit and all contributed work at the breakdown, Ireland don't have a problem at the breakdown. Is McCaw as good at the breakdown as he once was? Probably not (3rd test he excelled there though) but he is still around Pocock territory. If everyone is adept, or even solid, at the breakdown and has some level of of competence there then Pocock won't be too big a problem. This will be helped by having guys like Gray/Ryan, Best or maybe BOD who are also good breakdown operators.

Gibson - O'Brien has outplayed McCaw though, which in itself is huge. Who says O'Brien won't do the same with Pocock? Anyway, what difference would a natural 7 make against another natural 7? I never understand this argument. If Pocock gets over the ball, why would it be the 7 that has to clear him out? What difference would that make? O'Brien made countless turnovers against NZ so he is more than capable at doing a 7s job anyway.

Pocock had a field day 3 times with Warburton at 7. It doesn't matter if it is a "natural" 7 playing against him or not.

It does Rory. Sorry man, but we do need a natural 7. What happened in the 3rd and real Test v NZ? I rest my case.

They were just playing around with us in the 1st 2, to make it interesting. After we came even close to em in the 2nd (with 10 Leinster players ignoring Deccie), they put us in our place in the 3rd. That's how far we are from the very Top. 60 Test points.

Dont have a short memory man. Disillusionment and an aspiration to false, temporary, grandeur - is the real enemy.

We are shoite. We just dont know we are.

What do you mean 3rd and real test? Why don't the first two don't count, the ones where we actually did do well against the breakdown? In fact in the 3rd test NZ were missing some of their best players.

I don't agree that we need one at all, and I think the tour has clearly proved that. And if we do need one, O'Brien did the best job of any NH 7 on the tours bar Rennie, and against the best opposition (NZ). He is superb at the breakdown nowadays.

You may be right that 7 isn't the best position for O'Brien, but that doesn't mean O'Brien hasn't been excellent as a 7 recently. We also don't know if it really has affected his running game anyway playing at 7, because apparently the reason his running game hasn't been as good is due to his injury. Hopefully the operation will fix that.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:What do you mean 3rd and real test? Why don't the first two don't count, the ones where we actually did do well against the breakdown? In fact in the 3rd test NZ were missing some of their best players.

I don't agree that we need one at all, and I think the tour has clearly proved that. And if we do need one, O'Brien did the best job of any NH 7 on the tours bar Rennie, and against the best opposition (NZ). He is superb at the breakdown nowadays.

You may be right that 7 isn't the best position for O'Brien, but that doesn't mean O'Brien hasn't been excellent as a 7 recently. We also don't know if it really has affected his running game anyway playing at 7, because apparently the reason his running game hasn't been as good is due to his injury. Hopefully the operation will fix that.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=f70l4J3xb98

Gibson - the tour was awful of course, but the breakdown was surprisingly an area of strength for us throughout.

Gibbo at times you talk pure rubbish. So Leinster boys took charge in the second test? We sure saw that lovely backline play, the coaching staff deserve some credit for that and I fecking hate them! I know things are bleak for Ireland but to say the breakdown wasn't an area of positivity is laughable. There are some bright spots in between the shoite.

Bluesman - re: 9, my intention is not to upset you but surely you are not arguing that three consecutive matches where Philips played directly opposite Genia is assessing form 'out of context'? What could possibly be more relevant? How many head-to-heads do we need before allowing ourselves to come to conclusions? All I'm saying is that although MP could still have a great club season and be considered an automatic first choice at 9, his coat is on a far, far shakier peg than it was 10 weeks ago.

And how much do the Welsh forwards need to dominate an opposition before it becomes "fair" to compare the performances of scrum halves? Do you really think that the Lions are going to dominate possession and therefore we should pick a scrum half that has defensive and quick ball deficiencies? We need a 9 that can harry and spoil and play on the back foot (Matt Dawson and Rob Howley have been great recent examples of Lions who have done that) and if MP can't contain his opposite number in that way he shouldn't have the shirt. Notably, Gareth Edwards said the same in a broadsheet interview after the 9 June Brisbane test.

Thomond wrote:Gibbo at times you talk pure rubbish. So Leinster boys took charge in the second test? We sure saw that lovely backline play, the coaching staff deserve some credit for that and I fecking hate them! I know things are bleak for Ireland but to say the breakdown wasn't an area of positivity is laughable. There are some bright spots in between the shoite.

Leinster backrow? Leinster backs? 2 out of 3 Leinster frontrow? Sexton matching Carter - as predicted 3 years ago?

Yes. We did. We nearly had the feicers. Leinster would give the AB's a proper game. Politically chosen culchies and noordies... spoiled that particular chance. With the exception of Ryan and Best - who were commendable.

Maybe in another 100 years?

Gibbo, not cool man.

Gibson wrote:It does Rory. Sorry man, but we do need a natural 7. What happened in the 3rd and real Test v NZ? I rest my case.

They were just playing around with us in the 1st 2, to make it interesting. After we came even close to em in the 2nd (with 10 Leinster players ignoring Deccie), they put us in our place in the 3rd. That's how far we are from the very Top. 60 Test points.

Dont have a short memory man. Disillusionment and an aspiration to false, temporary, grandeur - is the real enemy.

We are shoite. We just dont know we are.

O Brien is a 7 moreso than 6, which he will tell you himself. He has played 7 far more than any other position in his career, so is by definition a specialist 7. Calling him a 6 playing at 7 is a fan favourite excuse for Ireland's shortcomings.

SOB has been carrying a serious hip injury since the RWC hence he's been less effective in his ball carrying than the previous season. He's also more heavily marked now and also working on other areas of his game at the behest of Schmidt.

I don't buy this old 'natural game' chestnut, SOB has a job to do and he does it very well, he's as strong over the ball and on the deck as any player I've ever seen, as McCaw found out in the summer. You need a JCB digger to move him once he gets into the poach position. Defensively he's been fantastic.

He hasn't done as much of the eye catching stuff this season, but in many respects hes a far better player than he was last year. He still needs to work on his support play and offloading but other than that he's becoming the complete all round openside.

thebluesmancometh wrote:And in what area did Genia beat Phillips head to head, remembering that Genias tight 5 were dominant throughout, Genia had quick go forward ball throughout, and generally, and I hasten to use the phrase but it is most apt in this case, had a bit of an armchair ride.

You see 9's can only work off what their pack has given them, at the breakdown Wales were dominated, and as I said Phillips spent his games on the back foot, and having to wrestle for the ball on most occasions, where Genia had a neatly presented ball regularly, and much more of it!

The key to living with Genia and Cooper is disrupting the breakdown and not allow them quick clean ball, Genia wasn't disrupted.

Therefore IMO Phillips wasn't given any sort of chance V Genia, infact I'm a lock and I could've played 9 for Aus that day and looked better than Phillips.

So, if absolutely none of the problems at scrum half was down to Phillips then maybe we should be concerned about picking any Welsh forwards for the Lions given that you think that "Genias tight 5 were dominant throughout" and "at the breakdown Wales were dominated". Doesn't bode well for selecting them again against what will most likely be a stronger side next year.

Disclaimer - I don't actually believe this (well, not completely) but you can't have it both ways! Scrum halves can't only be judged when they've got clean ball (I thought one of Phillips strengths was his ability to wrestle and not be knocked off the ball) in the same way that you can't say a 10 is average just because he gets an armchair ride.

PS Sorry to interrupt the Irish team selection debate

The key to Cooper at least is to pressurise him physically. Cooper and Genia are the type of players that can make a scoring break off of poor ball as well as good ball as well.

aw shoite this is the backs thread isn't it?!

rodders wrote:SOB has been carrying a serious hip injury since the RWC hence he's been less effective in his ball carrying than the previous season. He's also more heavily marked now and also working on other areas of his game at the behest of Schmidt.

I don't buy this old 'natural game' chestnut, SOB has a job to do and he does it very well, he's as strong over the ball and on the deck as any player I've ever seen, as McCaw found out in the summer. You need a JCB digger to move him once he gets into the poach position. Defensively he's been fantastic.

He hasn't done as much of the eye catching stuff this season, but in many respects hes a far better player than he was last year. He still needs to work on his support play and offloading but other than that he's becoming the complete all round openside.

I completely agree Rods, He didn’t do as much of the fancy carrying last season but defensively he’s invaluable to Ireland and Leinster, in the 5 min try line standoff against Clermont he was superhuman in some of the tackles he put in.

rodders wrote: aw shoite this is the backs thread isn't it?!

I think so, so we should not be discussing the flanker that is called Phillips

Rory_Gallagher wrote:What do you mean 3rd and real test? Why don't the first two don't count, the ones where we actually did do well against the breakdown? In fact in the 3rd test NZ were missing some of their best players.

I don't agree that we need one at all, and I think the tour has clearly proved that. And if we do need one, O'Brien did the best job of any NH 7 on the tours bar Rennie, and against the best opposition (NZ). He is superb at the breakdown nowadays.

You may be right that 7 isn't the best position for O'Brien, but that doesn't mean O'Brien hasn't been excellent as a 7 recently. We also don't know if it really has affected his running game anyway playing at 7, because apparently the reason his running game hasn't been as good is due to his injury. Hopefully the operation will fix that.

Whilst i dont believe Robshaw will travel with the Lions...i think his performance in the first test v SA was absolutely immense.

Im 50/50 on the out and out 7 discussion...BUT what i do believe is that the rest of the pack should offer help in that area...eg Dan Cole has really started to shine in this area.