South Africa v England: Man-for-man

The most anticipated Test series outside of Ashes contests in many a year is just a week away, with most pundits predicting a closely fought battle between the number one and two ranked sides in the ICC’s table. This series is also set to throw up a series of fascinating individual contests, with the sides closely matched man-for-man. In this article I’ll examine all of those individual contests, and see who comes out on top.

THE BATSMEN

Andrew Strauss v Graeme Smith

On stats alone it is easy to say that Smith is the better player, with a significantly better average. The South African captain also has a history of inflicting his best on England, though his form has been patchy of late. That could also be said of his counterpart until recently but, with two hundreds against West Indies, Strauss couldn’t have prepared better for this series. Nevertheless, both bowling attacks will fancy getting an early edge by shifting the opposition captain with the new ball. Both have struggled against left-armers of late but with neither side possessing any in their likely XIs they can breathe as easily as is possible in a series where Anderson, Broad, Steyn and Philander possess the new ball. As leaders both Strauss and Smith tend to err on the side of caution. Both are well respected by their teams, though one feels that Smith’s tenure is reaching a close.

Verdict: Very tight, but Smith edges it because of his history against England. Can’t be split as captains.

Alastair Cook v Alviro Petersen

Cook is comfortably the better and at Test level more experienced player. Nevertheless, England mustn’t underestimate Petersen, who has gathered experience in these conditions over the last two seasons with first Glamorgan and then Essex. Cook is still only 27, but has played 80 Tests and scored 19 100s. A mediocre series against West Indies notwithstanding, he has been in the form of his life for the past 18 months and it is hard to see him failing here unless Philander exposes his slight weakness outside his off-stump. Anderson has worked out opponents faultlessly in recent times and Petersen will be high on his hit list.

Verdict: Cook, by some margin.

Jonathan Trott v Hashim Amla

If somebody had told you five years ago that Trott and Amla would be amongst the best batsmen in the world in 2012 you might have laughed. But, through contrasting styles – Amla is wristy and graceful whilst Trott is determined and at times ugly – they have turned themselves into world-class number threes. There is perhaps a slight question mark over Trott’s form in the last few series, which have not produced heavy returns even if he has never looked out of touch. However, you would be a brave man to bet against him batting for long periods of time. Amla can also bat all day, and will be a difficult man for the England bowlers to get on top of.

Verdict: Trott is superb, but Amla’s some player. Advantage Amla, just.

Kevin Pietersen v Jacques Kallis

The two names that will dominate team meetings most. Kallis remains a top-class all-rounder, who is an under-estimated but crucial cog in the bowling unit, as well as one of the world’s best batsmen. His figures stack up with the very top greats of the game. But KP too has been in ominous form of late, and looks perfectly placed to launch a violent assault on his homeland. Pietersen likes the ball coming on, and so should be well placed to deal with Steyn, Morkel and co. Kallis is not a fading force, though his record in England is underwhelming and he had a particularly poor tour in 2008.

Verdict: Another tough call, but I’m going for Pietersen. Could take the series away from South Africa.

Ian Bell v AB de Villiers

Two of the most fluent batsmen in the world, who are now nearing the peak of their powers. Both are worth the admission fee alone when at full flow, and recent efforts suggest both are in top form. Any doubts over Bell’s ability to perform when the pressure’s on must now have been quashed. Some will question the wisdom of South Africa’s decision to give de Villiers the gloves in the wake of Mark Boucher’s serious eye injury – it could effect his batting, and in the long-term he is likely to have even more responsibility with the Test captaincy also set to come his way shortly.

Verdict: By common consent AB is now the leading player in the world. For that reason I can’t look past him as a massive threat.

Ravi Bopara v Jacques Rudolph

Number six has been an issue for both teams, with nobody able to nail it down. One would suggest that Bopara is the more naturally talented, but the fact remains that he has not yet delivered in a major series – though that Ashes contest was now three years ago. Rudolph is considerably more experienced, and his form for Yorkshire in recent years suggests that he is a much more accomplished played than last time England saw him. However, he hasn’t quite performed consistently yet on his international return. Both players are sure to be worked over by the opposition bowlers.

Verdict: Bopara the more talented, but I must go with Rudolph, who knows England well and is a tough man to be faced with at number six.

Matt Prior v JP Duminy

Following the retirement of Boucher and subsequent re-jig of the South African line-up, Duminy is likely to bat seven at The Oval. He is in some ways South Africa’s Bopara in that flashes of success at international level have been interspersed with periods of dreadful form. He has done well of late though, scoring a century when he got an opportunity in the 3rd Test in New Zealand. On face value he is probably a more accomplished batsman than Prior but England, and Graeme Swann in particular, have had great success against Duminy in the past. Swann will again expect to make JP his ‘bunny’ this time round. Prior has established himself as the world’s leading ‘keeper-batsman and is himself a daunting prospect at number seven.

Verdict: Duminy’s troubles against Swann and England give Prior the advantage.

THE BOWLERS

James Anderson v Dale Steyn

These two opening bowlers can lay claim to being the best in the business. Anderson is generally more potent with the new ball than Steyn, holding an ability to swing it round corners even when conditions aren’t in his favour. It is a major surprise if he doesn’t take at least one wicket with the new ball. Steyn, however, has enormous variety, bowls at 90 mph+, and is the most lethal reverse swing bowler in world cricket. Both batting line-ups better watch out!

Verdict: Too close to call. Anderson better with the new ball and Steyn later.

Stuart Broad v Morne Morkel

The tallest bowlers on each team have each come on leaps and bounds in the last year, after working out the right lengths to bowl. Since Broad’s transformation he is perhaps more consistent than Morkel, as was highlighted by his excellent efforts in difficult conditions in Asia this winter. However, Morkel is probably the most destructive of the lot, and when he gets on a role can take a hatful of wickets in a rush. His performance in the tour game was woeful, but with more overs under his belt, one would imagine his threat will grow as the series goes on. Broad also offers crucial lower-order runs to England.

Verdict: These days Broad is more consistent, though Morkel has also improved in that regard.

Tim Bresnan v Vernon Philander

As the unsung hero of the England side Bresnan has gathered figures which currently comfortably outdo legends Andrew Flintoff and even Sir Ian Botham. Philander has also made a sensational start to his Test career, making the batsman play every delivery with the new ball at a better pace than he is given credit for, and in the process picking up hatfuls of wickets. Bresnan is regularly referred to as a trundler, but he is actually far better than that. He has shown tremendous aptitude at working out opposition players, has a dangerous short ball and is England’s best exponent of reverse swing.

Verdict: Can’t look past Philander’s early career. Will pose a major threat to the openers.

Graeme Swann v Imran Tahir

When Imran Tahir qualified for South Africa the common thinking was that he was the missing link who would take the team to a new level. Thus far, however, Test cricket has been a struggle for him. The wickets haven’t come with the regularity that they have in first-class cricket, and it has become apparent that Test players pick him better than first-class players, and are more likely to take the game to him. Nevertheless, if he gets it right he remains a potential threat. Swann has a sensational record against South Africa in all forms of the game and despite a recent dip in his effectiveness, particularly when it doesn’t turn, you just feel that he will do well in this series. The number of left-handers in the South African line-up will have him licking his lips.

Verdict: Swann is more experienced at Test level and more accomplished than Tahir. He remains a crucial cog in this England side.

THE WICKET-KEEPERS

Matt Prior v AB de Villiers

With Boucher having departed, de Villiers takes the gloves. He is more than a part-time ‘keeper, having done the job on many occasions in ODIs and at the IPL, and having made his Test debut against England with the gloves on. But he’s only kept in three Tests, and last time he did so missed a stumping in India. In that sense it’s a major risk for South Africa to put one of their best batsmen behind the stumps. Prior has improved markedly since he started out, and is now largely flawless with the gloves on.

Verdict: Prior has much more Test experience behind the sticks.

THE RESERVES

Neither side has an experienced batsman to call on, with South Africa playing all seven frontline batsmen in the squad. But both have a battery of fast bowlers desperate to get an opportunity. Steven Finn and Marchant de Lange are two of the brightest young things in the international game, but both will probably have to wait their turn for a chance in the XI. Meanwhile, Graham Onions and Lonwabo Tsotsobe have both had enough success at international level to suggest they could slot straight into the team if need be. England also have a number of other fast bowlers – Chris Tremlett among them – to call on in an emergency. In the spin department England also would appear to have the better number two in Monty Panesar, whilst South Africa have the solid but unspectacular Robin Peterson.

Verdict: England have the marginally stronger bench. It would be a surprise if Finn and de Lange didn’t get a game at some point.

Nice work shelsey, I agree with your assessment.

In my view England has the advantage in the first test.

Can not really argue with your choices, 4-4 and 3 undecided for the main places, which pretty much sums it up as a close fought series.
But for me anyway the confidence and recent past of this England team in home conditions will give England the edge.

Nice work, as always Shelsey.

A few things I disagree on:

1. I think Smith is a fair bit better than Strauss. Its not that close.
2. Whilst KP is a fantastic player, Kallis is a true great. Despite KP possessing a much better average than Kallis in English conditions, I'd be wary of rating KP higher. Pretty even IMO, in England.
3. In English conditions, I dont think there is a better batsman than Ian Bell at the moment.
4. Bresnan is on par with Philander IMO. If Finn or Onions play, its advantage England IMO.

How about doing a Man for Man analysis between England batsmen and SA bowlers and vice versa?

Good picks Shelsey, I pretty much agree with everything. Batting-wise, I make it even between England and South Africa. But bowling-wise, England are better, especially on home turf. Looking back, it's nearly 4 years since England lost a home series, and that was against South Africa in 2008...where England were robbed. This time though there won't be any mistakes, 2-0 England.

Shelsey - that seems a characteristically thorough article. I don't claim to have any in depth knowledge of the South African team but feel that Bopara might get an easier ride than normal on these boards if it comes to a head to head between him and Rudolph as you suggest. From a Surrey perspective, Rudolph was staggeringly awful in the first half of this season. Anecdotal evidence suggests lack of preparation hardly helped Rudolph's cause.

Wickets
Anderson - Kallis (6) Smith (5) Amla, Duminy, Morkel, Steyn (2) Rudolph, de Villiers (1)
Broad - de Villiers (5), Amla (3), Kallis (2), Duminy, Morkel, Smith (1)
Swann - Duminy, de Villiers, Morkel, Amla (2), Steyn, Smith, Kallis (1)
Onions - Smith, Amla (2), Morkel, Duminy, Kallis (1)
Bresnan - 0
Finn - 0

Steyn - Pietersen , Swann, Trott (3), Bell, Prior (2), Anderson, Broad, Strauss (1)
Morkel - Strauss, Cook (6), Pietersen, Bell (3), Broad, Swann, Trott (2), Anderson, Prior (1)
Philander - 0
Tahir - 0
Tsotsobe - 0
de Lange - 0

Jetty wrote:Wickets
Anderson - Kallis (6) Smith (5) Amla, Duminy, Morkel, Steyn (2) Rudolph, de Villiers (1)
Broad - de Villiers (5), Amla (3), Kallis (2), Duminy, Morkel, Smith (1)
Swann - Duminy, de Villiers, Morkel, Amla (2), Steyn, Smith, Kallis (1)
Onions - Smith, Amla (2), Morkel, Duminy, Kallis (1)
Bresnan - 0
Finn - 0

Steyn - Pietersen , Swann, Trott (3), Bell, Prior (2), Anderson, Broad, Strauss (1)
Morkel - Strauss, Cook (6), Pietersen, Bell (3), Broad, Swann, Trott (2), Anderson, Prior (1)
Philander - 0
Tahir - 0
Tsotsobe - 0
de Lange - 0

Interesting stats there

Doesn't say much if you can't see it in context though, how many games have each of these players played against on another?

What are their strike rates?

biltongbek wrote:Doesn't say much if you can't see it in context though, how many games have each of these players played against on another?

What are their strike rates?

Good article. My views:

Strauss v Smith:
Smith is the better batsman, but not in very good form. Strauss is the slightly more intuitive captain, Smith is more a "lead by example" man who goads good performances out of his players. I think Strauss has the better captaincy skills overall (he is also an excellent man-manager). Smith should win the batting rounds, but could struggle if Anderson gets it right.

Peterson vs Cook:
Pretty much as you said.

Trott vs Amla:
How will Amla fare in England? IIRC he wasn't that brilliant last time he was here, and he can be a bit loose outside off. Trott's form of late has been average. This could be a key contest.

Kallis vs Pietersen:
Kallis is undoubtedly the better player, but Pietersen is the more likely match-winner.

AB vs Bell:
What you said. Another key contest given that both sides are likely to lose early wickets on occasions.

Rudolph vs Bopara:
I don't rate Rudolph that highly I'm afraid. England's bowling should really make him suffer. I await Bopara's performances with great anticipation - this could be the making of him.

Prior vs Duminy:
Duminy is a quality player but has badly struggled against Swann. Prior hasn't done too well recently to be fair.

Steyn vs Anderson:
Key battle obviously. As you said.

Morkel vs Broad:
Broad the more consistent at the moment. Morkel struggled quite badly last time around, he'll need to be a lot more consistent particularly if SA do pick Tahir.

Philander vs Bresnan:
Philander looks the real deal. Bresnan will be playing more of a supporting role. Not really fair to compare them TBH.

Swann vs Tahir:
the one place England (indeed either team) have a clear edge (2nd opener as well possibly), but with such a damp summer how much difference will it make? I like Tahir, but Smith has no idea how to set a field to him yet.

Reserves:
Even I'd say - unless there are more than a couple of injuries in which case England have the more proven values.

I'd say Finn and Onions are a fair bit better than Tsotosbe and De Lange.

Quite possibly - they certainly have more experience, but De Lange looks good to me. Tsotsobe is more of a Bresnan type bowler.

SAs batting lineup if frigtening, but the tail is a tail unlike Englands.
Bowling wise who knows, england maybe have the edge on the grounds of Swann but then SA get much better support bowlinjg from Kallis and Duminy than England will from Bopara (if he plays) Peitersen.
Prior gets the nod as the proper keeper.

Home advantage is minimal, SA are well suited and used to English conditions.

England more of an all round team, but SA have two areas they excel in ..pace and proper batting.

Should be a cracker.

Gun to head: 1-0 SA in a badly rain affected series. One bad session loses you the match under such circumstances, and I think England have got more bad sessions in them than SA, who look a very solid side with JP at 7.

Albie Morkel to replace Marchant de Lange who is the second South Africa player to withdraw from the Test series through injury in the first week of the tour.

skyeman wrote:Albie Morkel to replace Marchant de Lange who is the second South Africa player to withdraw from the Test series through injury in the first week of the tour.

Just seen this, with the first test finishing the day before Somerset's quarter final Vs Essex does that mean Morkel is now ruled out of Somerset matches? And there is a South Africa ODI game the day before finals day in Cardiff though, if somerset were to advance would Morkel be ruled out of that too?

skyeman wrote:Albie Morkel to replace Marchant de Lange who is the second South Africa player to withdraw from the Test series through injury in the first week of the tour.

Albie Morkel replacing De Lange tells you all that you need to know about South Africa's fast bowling reserves.
Surprised they havent gone for someone like Quinton Friend.

Strange decision to bring Albie in, though he did play a Test against Australia a few years ago as a front-line member of the attack. Probably reflects the fact that, after de Lange and Tsotsobe, there isn't much quality back-up seam bowling, particularly now that Parnell has disappeared off the face of the earth.

Perhaps they view Albie as an alternative to Duminy at seven - wouldn't be my choice, and I'm sure Duminy will start the series.

they dont need albie at 7, kallis is the all rounder in the side.

CF wrote:they dont need albie at 7, kallis is the all rounder in the side.

100% Agree. But looking for potential reasons for this selection - he surely can't be the 7th best seamer in South Africa!!

selectors were high, when they made the decision?

Marchant de Lange was unlikely to play test cricket, he was more likely to play ODI's hence Albie being called in, he is there for the limited overs cricket

biltongbek wrote:Marchant de Lange was unlikely to play test cricket, he was more likely to play ODI's hence Albie being called in, he is there for the limited overs cricket

Albie would have been in the ODI squad anyway and I disagree, Marchant was clearly next in line should one of the big seamers break down, and it was even a possibility (as per the last NZ Test) that they could have played four seamers.

What Shelsey said. This is a big loss for South Africa, not because De Lange was a likely starter, but if they do sustain an injury which is always possible then they have to bring in the fairly pedestrian (although he'll do a job) Tsotsobe. Certainly this does highlight how strong England's strength in depth is in the seam bowling department.

biltongbek wrote:Marchant de Lange was unlikely to play test cricket, he was more likely to play ODI's hence Albie being called in, he is there for the limited overs cricket

what a load of tosh.....u name a seperate squad for odi's, so that not a reason why morkel has been brought in! Its a silly decision by selectors.

Tosh yourself mate. If Albie plays a test I will be schocked, he has played1 tests in his career and was pathetic in it.

Albie Morkel will not play a test match, he was always going to be in the ODI squad. As for Merchant, it is a big loss. Like others have said, he way next in line if one of the seamers broke down or had two shockers of a test match (Looking at Morkel here). He looks a real prospect I have to say.

biltongbek wrote:Tosh yourself mate. If Albie plays a test I will be schocked, he has played1 tests in his career and was pathetic in it.

thats what im saying! there's no reasn for him to have been named in the squad, as he wont play, they should have called up someone who will actually have a chance!

I don't think Albie Morkel's selection as replacement for the injured Marchant De Lange makes much sense. Albie isn't even quite a regular 10 over bowler in ODIs. His batting is more flash rather than real substance. They have one of the greatest all-rounders ever in their side already, so it was not about having an all-rounder.
The only reason I can see is with regard to JP Duminy and the Mark Boucher situation. SA are, by the look of things going to go in with AB as the wicket keeper. Solikile isn't in Boucher's class with the bat anyways. SA are without a quality replacement batter in the squad if Duminy is also playing. He has had a very troubled history with Graeme Swann in particular. So if at all Albie gets a chance at some point, it would be in place of JP I think. Tsotsobe is more than capable of stepping in if there is a need in the fast bowling department, although he's not in the top class range.

Only in the two warm-up games,and it does not count for much but are SA a bit undercooked in the bowling??

Steyn - 34 overs - 108 runs - 2 wkts

Philander - 35 overs - 112 runs - 2 wkts

Morkel - 38 overs - 161 runs - 3 wkts

Tahir - 37 overs - 110 runs - 5 wkts

Kallis - 15 overs - 60 runs - 0 wkts

Itbsure looks like it.

skyeman wrote:Only in the two warm-up games,and it does not count for much but are SA a bit undercooked in the bowling??

Steyn - 34 overs - 108 runs - 2 wkts

Philander - 35 overs - 112 runs - 2 wkts

Morkel - 38 overs - 161 runs - 3 wkts

Tahir - 37 overs - 110 runs - 5 wkts

Kallis - 15 overs - 60 runs - 0 wkts

Absolutely. Will particularly effect Morkel, who tends to be a rhythm bowler.

Strauss v Smith: If I wanted someone to bat for my life and had to pick one of these two I would go for Smith, so have him just ahead.

Peterson vs Cook: Cook is Englands best batsman.

Trott vs Amla: Tough call, but Amla is the better player.

Kallis vs Pietersen: I would have Kallis in my side over KP every day.

AB vs Bell: AB is better but not by much.

Rudolph vs Bopara: Bopara has to prove himslf, Rudolph is ahead of him.

Prior vs Duminy: Prior, is a key player for England.

Steyn vs Anderson: The two best opening bowlers in the world. Anywhere else I would go for Steyn, but in English conditions Anderson rules supreme.

Morkel vs Broad: Broad has grown up and is now a true test class bowler and wouldbe in any side ahead of Morne.

Philander vs Bresnan: I would have Philander, but Bresnan appears to be like a talisman for England.

Swann vs Tahir: Swann, no question.

Top 7 = England 2 SA 5
Bowlers = England 3 SA 1

In a nutshell this is as even as it gets. The better Englaish bowling attack take on the better SA batters. The swinging factor to me could be Kallis. England do not have a genuine 5th bowler, and if Kallis can weigh in well with the ball, then SA can win this and go top of the rankings.

DHL, problem is SA haven't played for quite a while, their form is unknown.

It's fairly accurate assessment DHL, it's one of the most even series I can remember for a while, especially between (despite what the new rankings say) the best two teams in the world. Both teams with great strengths, but both teams with weaknesses as well what with England's batting being prone to the occasional collapse and SA being rusty, and with injury concerns and potentially less depth. It all makes for an intriguing battle!

I'm backing a draw due to a flat wicket and rain at the Oval, then a low scoring thriller at Headingley which could go either way and then it all coming down to the final Test. My heart says 1-0 England, but my head says 1-1. Should be a cracker.

DHLS07 wrote:
In a nutshell this is as even as it gets. The better Englaish bowling attack take on the better SA batters. The swinging factor to me could be Kallis. England do not have a genuine 5th bowler, and if Kallis can weigh in well with the ball, then SA can win this and go top of the rankings.

I'm not sure who will win. But I would be very surprised if the decisive issue turned out to be Kallis vs Bopara as bowlers.

Kallis, not the most dynamic or the biggest of impact players but surely the best and most consistent all-rounder in the history of cricket.

Over 12,000 Test runs (ave nearly 60) and 270 odd Test wkts and 180 catches, but the one thing i think he would like to improve on is his stats in England, which is the one place where is stats are poor, batting ave under 30.

Regarding the AB-Bell comparison, I'm tempted to go the other way. While AB is a seriously classy player, Bell isn't far off his level, and I can't help thinking that keeping may affect AB's effectiveness with the bat. When you also factor in the form Bell's been in, and the fact that the series is in England, I think Bell could have a good series.

Well really this is about the ECB wanting players to put internationals and English domestic cricket ahead of the IPL.
Thgere wouldnt be this problem if KP wasnt complaining about his workload on one hand whilst playing in the IPL

One partial solution would be to get a set window in the calender for IPL, but that would run the risk of upsetting the counties.

Really there is no right answer here.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
One partial solution would be to get a set window in the calender for IPL, but that would run the risk of upsetting the counties.

This idea should not be considered unless the IPL agreed to significantly reduce the length of their tournament, and perhaps even play it biannually. There are many supporters, myself included, who would be rather hacked off if we couldn't have any international cricket for two months because everybody was IPL-ing. If West Indies or New Zealand feel that they should keep their players sweet by not scheduling fixtures against the IPL then that's up to them, but England shouldn't need to do that.

Shelsey93 wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
One partial solution would be to get a set window in the calender for IPL, but that would run the risk of upsetting the counties.

This idea should not be considered unless the IPL agreed to significantly reduce the length of their tournament, and perhaps even play it biannually. There are many supporters, myself included, who would be rather hacked off if we couldn't have any international cricket for two months because everybody was IPL-ing. If West Indies or New Zealand feel that they should keep their players sweet by not scheduling fixtures against the IPL then that's up to them, but England shouldn't need to do that.

One of the mooted ideas was to have a domestic T20 window, countries could schedule their tournaments then knowing all the international players would be available.
The obvious issue there is that the counties could find all their best players nipping off to IPL and having to get into bidding wars which take away the profitability of the game here, but it shifts the problem form the national team to one the counties have to handle. The ECBs remit however is to protect everyones interests so I couldnt see them supporting this.

Off a bit from the thread title, but could they not play THREE games a day in the group stages and thus freeing up two weeks.

One at 10am and the other two games at the same as current.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/england-v-south-africa-2012/content/current/story/572829.html

Back on topic, heres the stat nerds take on mana for man.

The article identifies several key areas that they feel should give England the advantage : The openers, the spin option, and low order batting (although that rather forgets that SA will now be playing 7 proper batsmen). Kallis may be the best batsman but hes always struggled in English conditions (chance?).

Interesting breakdown in their of the bowlers vs left right handers. Both Broad and Steyn struggle against left handers, but England have Swann to get rid of them (he averages under 20 against left handers) whereas SA dont have a specialist "left killer" (OK Philander averages under 20 but hes not that good really is he) which could bode well for englands cack handed openers if they can get in.

All in that analysis should give me more confidence in England, but Im still very wary of SA.