A measure of national dependency

On the 'Under-hyped players' thread (https://www.606v2.com/t31875p100-under-hyped-players#1402290), caoimhincentre posted a link to a blog thread discussing the importance of Jamie Heaslip to Ireland (http://dementedmole.com/2012/07/14/losing-your-linchpin/). What struck me as particularly interesting was their 'depth chart' towards the bottom of the page, where the author(s) try to balance out the importance of a particular position to the way in which a team play their game together with information about the strength in depth for each position. They term this combination a 'measure of national dependency', with the following explaining their table structure:
■ Columns No1 and No2 list the positions in order of precedence;
■ Column No3 lists the incumbent in each position for the 2011-12 season;
■ Column No4 lists the suggested immediate cover for the incumbent player for the 2012-13 season;
■ Column No5 lists one [or more] long term replacements for the incumbent; and;
■ Column No6 suggests a ‘sell-by date’ for the incumbent.

I thought that I'd take a stab at producing a similar table for Scotland:

Precedence	Position	Incumbent (11/12 season)	Immediate cover (12/13 season)	Long-term replacement	Provisional sell-by date of incumbent
1	Flyhalf	Greig Laidlaw (26)	Duncan Weir (21), Ruaridh Jackson (24)	Harry Leonard (20)	2014-15
2	Inside centre	Matt Scott (22)	Alex Dunbar (22)	Finn Russell (19)	2019-20?
3	Tighthead	Euan Murray (32)	Geoff Cross (29)	Moray Low (27), Mike Cusack (27) [proj], WP Nel (25) [proj]	2015-16
4	Lineout lock	Jim Hamilton (29)	Al Kellock (31)	Nick Campbell (22), Robert McAlpine (20)	2015-16
5	No8	David Denton (22)	Johnnie Beattie (26)	Ryan Wilson (23), Stuart McInally (22)	2019-20?
6	Openside	Ross Rennie (26)	John Barclay (25)	Chris Fusaro (22), Hamish Watson (21)	2017-18
7	Outside centre	Nick de Luca (28)	Joe Ansbro (26)	Mark Bennett (19)	2015-16
8	Fullback	Stuart Hogg (20)	Rory Lamont (29), Tom Brown (22)	Tom Brown (22)	2021-22?
9	Left wing	Tim MacVisser (25)	Sean Lamont (31)		2018-19?
10	Scrumhalf	Mike Blair (31)	Chris Cusiter (30)	Greig Laidlaw (26)	2013-14
11	Hooker	Ross Ford (28)	Scott Lawson (31)	Pat MacArthur (25), Finlay Gillies (23)	2017-18
12	Loosehead	Alan Jacobsen (34)	Ryan Grant (26)	Jon Welsh (25)	2012-13
13	Scrum lock	Richie Gray (23)	Tom Ryder (27)	Grant Gilchrist (22)	2019-20?
14	Blindside	Al Strokosch (29)	Kelly Brown (30)	Rob Harley (22)	2015-16
15	Right wing	Lee Jones (24)	Max Evans (29)	Jamie Farndale (19)	2017-18?

My thought process was as follows - Scotland's preferred gameplan at the moment is a quick-ball, offloading game, going thru multiple phases, retaining possession and hoping to stretch the opposition defence/get it out of position so that gaps appear and scores can happen. Clearly in the recent past (1 year +), we have been hampered by our ability to convert opportunities (arguably somewhat improved), much of which has been laid at the door of weakness in the five-eighths (10 & 12). Of course, no team can do anything without a certain amount of first phase possession, and equally a pack that is capable of carrying to break the gain line and linking up possession between backs and forwards is also key.

Clearly all of the above, as with the dementedmole's original piece, is entirely subjective. I've listed ages as of roughly at the start of the coming season, I'm sure that I've inadvertently missed players out, and I'm sure others will have better ideas for potential long-term replacements than me. The mole notes that "All of life is evolution, but it requires humility to recognise that your certainty of yesterday will definitely be overtaken by somebody else’s invention tomorrow" - so, the world will move on and things will change, but hey this is just a forum so thought it might be interesting after all. It would be good to hear other posters' views on this and to get opinions on other countries' national dependency

My only observation with this is no.8 I think should be higher than lineout lock. I Feel Denton is instrumental in gaining us forward momentum and our other options at 8 at the moment (Vernon, Barclay or Brown) just don't cut the mustard for me in terms of creating that momentum.

Wilson and McInally I feel need to have big seasons to give Robinson better options at 8 that he can feel confident in.

I'm starting to worry about the scrum-halves; next season just Cusiter, out of our first three, will be playing top flight rugby. Robinson won't pick Lawson because he's always maintained that he won't pick those who play in the championship so it will be interesting to see if he extends this to France in which case that leaves an option of Pyrgos (who may be third chice at Glasgow next season), Laidlaw (who seems to have settled at 10), McKibbin (who wants to play for Australia and hasn't shown too much interest in Scotland) or Samson at London Irish (who's way down the pecking order). Are there any other half decent Scottish scrum-halves?
Is this a result of their standard or are they playing below their level? Seeing as Scotland have never been short of decent scrum-halves this is very oddd.

Agreed re our scrumhalves. We seem to have swapped 10 for 9 as our problem position. We are pretty dependent on Laidlaw as things stand.

Asbo - nice post mate. I will have a good think on additional names and a few suggestions.

One thing that does stand out for me is the fact you refer to Hamilton as our 'lineout lock' and Richie as our 'scrum lock'. I would say they perform the opposite?

nickj wrote:Agreed re our scrumhalves. We seem to have swapped 10 for 9 as our problem position. We are pretty dependent on Laidlaw as things stand.

Asbo - nice post mate. I will have a good think on additional names and a few suggestions.

One thing that does stand out for me is the fact you refer to Hamilton as our 'lineout lock' and Richie as our 'scrum lock'. I would say they perform the opposite?

nick, agreed, but I was going by the fact that Richie is the front jumper and Big Jim the middle lineout option

Can they lift Hamilton in the middle?

gowales wrote:Can they lift Hamilton in the middle?

Yeah but they have to fill out a 4 part Risk Assesment before each match.

gowales wrote:Can they lift Hamilton in the middle?

go, they can if they use a crane or a simple pulley system

gowales wrote:Can they lift Hamilton in the middle?

It's what Irn Bru was made for.

I think that table shows we have pretty decent long term options in most positions. The key will obviously be making sure the next group of players is adequately coached and brought through properly, but it's not a bad pipeline, and we don't really have a "crisis position" as we've had at 10 and 12 for about the last decade.

I'm pretty relaxed about scrum half. Short term (next 2-3 years) Cusiter, Blair and Lawson will continue to be viable options. That Blair and Lawson are playing second tier rugby doesn't bother me so much. Both are extremely experienced and the fundamentals of scrum half play aren't going to drastically change in the second tiers of French and English rugby. Laidlaw provides better long term cover and I'm sure one of the youngster coming through will have emerged over that period. We always produce decent scrum halves. There has not been a period in my lifetime that I can think of where Scotland hasn't had at least two top class scrum halves.

You're right there FES, I can't remember any such periods.

Robbo will have to make an exception to his own rule for Blair and Lawson though, won't he...

I'm not overly concerned by the drop in standard but I'd prefer them to be playing top tier, even Heineken Cup class rugby to be honest.

nickj wrote:Robbo will have to make an exception to his own rule for Blair and Lawson though, won't he...

Given that he's made a few exceptions to his other "rule" recently, namely his rule of mainly making terrible selections, hopefully this new found flexibility can extend to Blair and Lawson (and Euan Murray let's not forget).

funnyExiledScot wrote:It's what Irn Bru was made for.

For one horrible moment I thought you were talking about me! It bothered me that you might think I was some titan-esque granite-chested athlete with biceps the size of Bulgaria when, in fact, I get a stich from grating cheese.

Not to worry Ian Bru - was referring to the luminous orange stuff in tins.

....and for the record, I'm too lazy to grate my own cheese. I buy grated cheese in packets.....