AP Top 4

Over the past few years we have seen the development of an established top 4.

tigers- Clearly the most consistently strong club in england for many years, they are still the favourites for the top 4.

sarries- Champions 2 years ago, not a great season last year but they still have a strong squad and the financial clout to back it up, very strong candidates for top 4 again.

Harlequins- Last years champs will have to answer their critics who say their success owed a lot to it being a world cup season. Up and down history in recent years, can they challenge again?

Northampton- Flattered to decieve in the prem, consistently up there but fall at the final hurdle also have struggled against other top 4 opposition.

Odds are these 4 sides will make up the top 4 again this year but who is most likely to break into this group? And importantly which 2 sides will gain HC qualification?

Most people would agree that london welsh and worcester are real outsiders, but the rest are really open and almost anything could happen.

Sale- improved last year and have made some interesting additions, moving to a new ground also, big season for them. 5-7

Gloucester- exciting, attacking team but tailed off last season and under new management too. 6-8

Bath- terrible season last year but they have some seriously good players and i just feel if they clicked they could really threaten. 5-7

LI- I worry about their defence, some good attacking talent and good young players coming through. They have lost some experience and not sure they have replaced it. 8-10

Wasps- blighted by problems at boardroom level this club has struggled badly but they have recruited extremely well in my opinion and have fantastic young players. 6-8

exeter- 2 great years for them, have added to the squad can they maintain their form combined with a HC campaign? 8-10

Perhaps the easiest way of doing this is to describe how much better/worse you expect your own club to be this year. For me, Tigers will be stronger in the first half of the season (not hard) but I don't expect the same sort of unbeaten run (with bonus points) we had at the back end of last year. That was down to grit and character from the players and was really the result of the poor first half - we just had to perform if we wanted to be top 4.

I think we have a stronger squad overall with more options in the backs and even though Tuilagi's power will be missed against Bath ( ) and Agulla was a mercurial talent, I think we should perform better in the open. We have a glut of injuries in the 2nd and back rows but otherwise our pack is strong and deep.

I would expect our end of season points total to be broadly where we were last season.

Would it be fair to say Northampton have not kicked on from the time they reached the HEC final? While other clubs are strengthening Northampton could be in danger of slipping out of the top 4.

I'd say only three of those teams are regular top 4 contenders Tigers, Saints and Saracens.

Quins could be a new team to break in to that triumverate but we'll have to see how this season goes before we start counting eggs etc

For what it's worth I think we'll (Quins) find this season a lot tougher then the last, we'll be targetted a lot more and people will expect results in Europe and at home.

I don't quite think our off season signings have been smart enough to aid this and possibly there was a little bit of nievity in expecting our academy to take all of the burden. Again we'll see at the end of the season if this was realistic or not but one or two experienced pro's from other clubs may have been usefull.

Yeah i could see Saints dropping out this season...unless they sort it out.

Hasnt helped with Ashton being distracted, Wood and Lawes being out for huge chunks of the season etc

yappysnap wrote:For what it's worth I think we'll (Quins) find this season a lot tougher then the last, we'll be targetted a lot more and people will expect results in Europe and at home.

Without a doubt Yappy. All that said though, i get the feeling that all the staff from CoS down to the grounds attendants are comfortable within themselves and with everything as it is, and that will come through in their game play. If last season we learnt new tricks, this season we'll refine them.

As you say, i'm not counting eggs, but it'll very interesting to watch! Saturdays friendlies are going to be fun and hopefully a good indicator of how we're going to start off the season.

I can see this season being used to allow the fringe players to gain more experience so that we have the resources to compete in Europe and in the Prem, i'd be happy with only making the play offs in both if in the season after that we have a core of 30+ players who can compete at the top levels.

pjm1 wrote:Perhaps the easiest way of doing this is to describe how much better/worse you expect your own club to be this year. For me, Tigers will be stronger in the first half of the season (not hard) but I don't expect the same sort of unbeaten run (with bonus points) we had at the back end of last year. That was down to grit and character from the players and was really the result of the poor first half - we just had to perform if we wanted to be top 4.
I think we have a stronger squad overall with more options in the backs and even though Tuilagi's power will be missed against Bath ( ) and Agulla was a mercurial talent, I think we should perform better in the open. We have a glut of injuries in the 2nd and back rows but otherwise our pack is strong and deep.

I would expect our end of season points total to be broadly where we were last season.

I partly disagree. Yes, it was down to those factors - but it also showed what Tigers are capable of, and there should be no reason why they can't replicate that kind of effort throughout the season coming to finish (I predict) comfortably top of the pile this time (especially since the team is arguably stronger this time out). When you consider that there was just one point in it at the end and Quins had hardly lost a game all season, then Tigers wont have to recreate the bonus point streak they had at the end to do it. As long as they're consistent, they'll nail it.

Jimpy wrote:

pjm1 wrote:Perhaps the easiest way of doing this is to describe how much better/worse you expect your own club to be this year. For me, Tigers will be stronger in the first half of the season (not hard) but I don't expect the same sort of unbeaten run (with bonus points) we had at the back end of last year. That was down to grit and character from the players and was really the result of the poor first half - we just had to perform if we wanted to be top 4.
I think we have a stronger squad overall with more options in the backs and even though Tuilagi's power will be missed against Bath ( ) and Agulla was a mercurial talent, I think we should perform better in the open. We have a glut of injuries in the 2nd and back rows but otherwise our pack is strong and deep.

I would expect our end of season points total to be broadly where we were last season.

I partly disagree. Yes, it was down to those factors - but it also showed what Tigers are capable of, and there should be no reason why they can't replicate that kind of effort throughout the season coming to finish (I predict) comfortably top of the pile this time (especially since the team is arguably stronger this time out). When you consider that there was just one point in it at the end and Quins had hardly lost a game all season, then Tigers wont have to recreate the bonus point streak they had at the end to do it. As long as they're consistent, they'll nail it.

I'm not sure if a team really can keep up that level of physical and mental effort though, for a whole season. It was a ridiculous run of form which might, in part, have been helped by other teams thinking "we can do them".

Still, I'd be happy with a top-2 finish (no need for higher) and a much better showing in Europe this year. the AP crown would be icing on the cake, but I'd take a losing finalist in both AP and HEC over the AP win... I know that's not the Tigers way, but I don't like asking for too much

pjm1 wrote:

Jimpy wrote:

pjm1 wrote:Perhaps the easiest way of doing this is to describe how much better/worse you expect your own club to be this year. For me, Tigers will be stronger in the first half of the season (not hard) but I don't expect the same sort of unbeaten run (with bonus points) we had at the back end of last year. That was down to grit and character from the players and was really the result of the poor first half - we just had to perform if we wanted to be top 4.
I think we have a stronger squad overall with more options in the backs and even though Tuilagi's power will be missed against Bath ( ) and Agulla was a mercurial talent, I think we should perform better in the open. We have a glut of injuries in the 2nd and back rows but otherwise our pack is strong and deep.

I would expect our end of season points total to be broadly where we were last season.

I partly disagree. Yes, it was down to those factors - but it also showed what Tigers are capable of, and there should be no reason why they can't replicate that kind of effort throughout the season coming to finish (I predict) comfortably top of the pile this time (especially since the team is arguably stronger this time out). When you consider that there was just one point in it at the end and Quins had hardly lost a game all season, then Tigers wont have to recreate the bonus point streak they had at the end to do it. As long as they're consistent, they'll nail it.

I'm not sure if a team really can keep up that level of physical and mental effort though, for a whole season. It was a ridiculous run of form which might, in part, have been helped by other teams thinking "we can do them".

Still, I'd be happy with a top-2 finish (no need for higher) and a much better showing in Europe this year. the AP crown would be icing on the cake, but I'd take a losing finalist in both AP and HEC over the AP win... I know that's not the Tigers way, but I don't like asking for too much

The Tigers go on good runs from mid season on because thats when their squad size starts to count.

Tigers will be playoff contenders this year. Sarries, Saints and Quins will probably make up the other 4. I don't think Quins have enough to finish top again, but barring long term injuries in a couple of key positions (lock, hooker, SH, FH), they should have enough to manage a decent campaign and will not be as stretched by their HEC group as other English teams.

Sequence of teams in the Top 4 may well be decided by who copes best with International callups. It's likely that each of them will be giving 4-5 players to the England AI and 6N squads; question is, who will cope best? Tigers generally manage to, but they've lost some good players in the off season. Saints have looked vulnerable without their key players. Sarries seemed to cope well but could be undermined if their back row gets depleted.

It's new territory for Quins, but they have cover for their likely England players that is at worst solid (Lambert, though only at LH) and often pretty special (Dickson, Wallace, Chisholm). As Yappy says, we have no new big names this season, but I fully expect the new Academy graduates to have a big impact. The main challenge is replacing Robshaw as a captain when he's on England duty.

Sale or Bath could probably challenge for a spot, but Bath have to find some consistency and Sale have to knit a squad together. I think Exeter will continue to surprise people (and will happily enjoy the HEC gate takings while playing for the experience rather than with a serious hope of escaping their pool) and will finish 5th again, pushing Saints for the last spot in the playoffs. This year they might actually do it.

Welsh seem to have recruited well - if they can pull together, get some performances out of the Orange One and generate some atmosphere in the Kassam, they could challenge Worcester for the 11th spot.

There have been times when i have thought that saints were about to really click and become a dominant force in both ap and hc but it didnt quite happen. i think they had the first 15 at one stage but were severely exposed for depth, now they have lost the likes of downey, wilson and of course ashton, they could struggle. you feel it is imperative that wood and lawes stay fit the season if northampton are to go well.

i think sarries and tigers will be strong this year and im sure they will finish in the top 4. quins, like saints, have a job on their hands. the academy has been fantastic but you do worry if they are relying on it too much this season not having brought in any experienced players. the current squad do however have the experience of winning the title last year, that could well be all the experience they need.

saints and quins are more vunerable perhaps than the other 2 but who are the favourites to upset the apple cart?

in the op I stated that sale and bath had the best chance, had anyone asked me 2 weeks ago my opinion may have been different. i think the reason i chose those 2 is they seem to want it the most, and seem to have the finance to back it up. both have also recruited well.

I would prefer Sale to nab that last spot over Bath. I've nothing against Bath, per ce, I just think that Sale are the underdogs of the two (just a perception) and everybody loves the underdog don't they.

I do think that Bath would win the race however, to be honest, any one of 4 or 5 teams could do it. Its going to be close.

Gloucester are the dark horses in my opinion

8-15 looks very strong if they stay fit.

8.Morgan/Kalamafoni
9.Cowan
10.Burns
11.Sharples
12.Twelvetrees
13.Trinder
14.JSD
15.May

Plus they don't have many call ups. In Ian Clark they have one winger to watch out for in the future.

I can't actually see all the hype surrounding Bath and Sale.

Sale are relying heavily on Cipriani performing which is not a good thing. Of the new signings the only one that really stands out as a real coup IMO is Richie Gray.

Bath have still not sorted out their centre problem. Signing Tigers rejects is not clever. Tigers are a savvy club, they get rid of players for good reasons. They have bolstered their pack options but is it enough to make up for other shortcomings?

I feel Quins rely too much on players like Robshaw,Easter,Evans,Brown, Marler. Take away these players then who fills the breach? Quins should still make the top 4 but their strength in depth will be pushed to the limit with international call ups and the expectation they'll do well in the HC.

Saints are a interesting one - wouldn't be surprising if they make the top 4 again but then again they could be the one to drop out. Losing Wilson, Downey and Clarke is IMO a bigger blow than losing Ashton. They weren't star names but they were industrious. It could take time for the new centres to gel and perform. Also there's the question of who plays at full back when Foden is available.

I would expect Tigers and Saracens to be in the top 4 once again. I think both have the best strength in depth in the AP, new signings won't harm this either.

Gloucester's major problem is their front 5 though isn't it? Sale shades them in that area imo

Gowales I wouldn't say either have particularly strong front fives. I would say the 8-15 of Gloucester is noticeably stronger than Sale though.

beshocked wrote:Gloucester are the dark horses in my opinion

8-15 looks very strong if they stay fit.

8.Morgan/Kalamafoni
9.Cowan
10.Burns
11.Sharples
12.Twelvetrees
13.Trinder
14.JSD
15.May

Plus they don't have many call ups. In Ian Clark they have one winger to watch out for in the future.

I can't actually see all the hype surrounding Bath and Sale.

Sale are relying heavily on Cipriani performing which is not a good thing. Of the new signings the only one that really stands out as a real coup IMO is Richie Gray.

Bath have still not sorted out their centre problem. Signing Tigers rejects is not clever. Tigers are a savvy club, they get rid of players for good reasons. They have bolstered their pack options but is it enough to make up for other shortcomings?

I feel Quins rely too much on players like Robshaw,Easter,Evans,Brown, Marler. Take away these players then who fills the breach? Quins should still make the top 4 but their strength in depth will be pushed to the limit with international call ups and the expectation they'll do well in the HC.

Saints are a interesting one - wouldn't be surprising if they make the top 4 again but then again they could be the one to drop out. Losing Wilson, Downey and Clarke is IMO a bigger blow than losing Ashton. They weren't star names but they were industrious. It could take time for the new centres to gel and perform. Also there's the question of who plays at full back when Foden is available.

I would expect Tigers and Saracens to be in the top 4 once again. I think both have the best strength in depth in the AP, new signings won't harm this either.

To be fair, you could say that about any club, as all clubs have 'key' players whom they rely on to gain an advantage.

That's true Jimpy but I would say certain players are relied on more.

I think Saracens and Tigers have better strength in depth. They can absorb injuries and call ups easier.

E.g. with Tigers if Cole is injured they have Castro, if Flood is out they have Ford, if Saracens lose De Kock they have Spencer and Wigglesworth, losing Goode they still have Wyles.

Saracens missed 4 backrowers for large chunks of the season, other call ups and injuries too but did well enough without them to still make the playoffs and a HC quarter final.

Leicester missed numerous players but still made the top 2 and the AP final.

HQ matt wrote:i think sarries and tigers will be strong this year and im sure they will finish in the top 4. quins, like saints, have a job on their hands. the academy has been fantastic but you do worry if they are relying on it too much this season not having brought in any experienced players. the current squad do however have the experience of winning the title last year, that could well be all the experience they need.

Thing is, people were saying that about Quins last season, and for the same reason. Most pundits didn't see any big recruitment and had them as 6-8th in their preseason predictions. This year they have lost a couple of squad players but replaced them by ex-Academy lads like Wallace, Matthews and Buchanan who all got decent AP experience last season.

I feel Quins rely too much on players like Robshaw,Easter,Evans,Brown, Marler. Take away these players then who fills the breach? Quins should still make the top 4 but their strength in depth will be pushed to the limit with international call ups and the expectation they'll do well in the HC.

Robshaw - Wallace. Very exciting player, similar workrate but faster over the ground and a more natural 7. Not as good a decision-maker but still very young. The bigger issue is that Robson, who takes over the captaincy, is not as good at lifting the team as Robshaw

Easter - Guest. Now back to full fitness, I hope we will see a big season from him (at last). Not as powerful and doesn't control the game quite as well, but much faster (has played credibly as a makeshift wing) and more effective in the loose

Evans - Clegg or Botica. We don't have a direct replacement for Evans, but then how many teams (short of the ABs) have a direct replacement for a world class fly half? Clegg is capable of excellent performances but seems to lack the mindset to impose his own game on the team. Botica is an unknown quantity but has impressed in pre-season. Neither of them is likely to turn a game around on their own (which Evans can and does do), but if the rest of the team does its job then so can Clegg.

Brown - Williams or Chisholm. Tom Williams is deceptive. He's not particularly big or blazingly fast but reads the game exceptionally well, and seems to play best in the big stakes games (e.g. Toulouse away last year). Chisholm is rawer, but physically similar to Brown, quite a bit quicker and may in time be even better.

Marler - Lambert. Longstanding member of the squad who struggled at tighthead, but moved to loosehead last season and was immediately much better. Not as exciting or destructive as Marler, by a long chalk, but was much more consistent in the first half of last season.

Poorfour wrote:

HQ matt wrote:i think sarries and tigers will be strong this year and im sure they will finish in the top 4. quins, like saints, have a job on their hands. the academy has been fantastic but you do worry if they are relying on it too much this season not having brought in any experienced players. the current squad do however have the experience of winning the title last year, that could well be all the experience they need.

Thing is, people were saying that about Quins last season, and for the same reason. Most pundits didn't see any big recruitment and had them as 6-8th in their preseason predictions. This year they have lost a couple of squad players but replaced them by ex-Academy lads like Wallace, Matthews and Buchanan who all got decent AP experience last season.

I feel Quins rely too much on players like Robshaw,Easter,Evans,Brown, Marler. Take away these players then who fills the breach? Quins should still make the top 4 but their strength in depth will be pushed to the limit with international call ups and the expectation they'll do well in the HC.

Robshaw - Wallace. Very exciting player, similar workrate but faster over the ground and a more natural 7. Not as good a decision-maker but still very young. The bigger issue is that Robson, who takes over the captaincy, is not as good at lifting the team as Robshaw

Easter - Guest. Now back to full fitness, I hope we will see a big season from him (at last). Not as powerful and doesn't control the game quite as well, but much faster (has played credibly as a makeshift wing) and more effective in the loose

Evans - Clegg or Botica. We don't have a direct replacement for Evans, but then how many teams (short of the ABs) have a direct replacement for a world class fly half? Clegg is capable of excellent performances but seems to lack the mindset to impose his own game on the team. Botica is an unknown quantity but has impressed in pre-season. Neither of them is likely to turn a game around on their own (which Evans can and does do), but if the rest of the team does its job then so can Clegg.

Brown - Williams or Chisholm. Tom Williams is deceptive. He's not particularly big or blazingly fast but reads the game exceptionally well, and seems to play best in the big stakes games (e.g. Toulouse away last year). Chisholm is rawer, but physically similar to Brown, quite a bit quicker and may in time be even better.

Marler - Lambert. Longstanding member of the squad who struggled at tighthead, but moved to loosehead last season and was immediately much better. Not as exciting or destructive as Marler, by a long chalk, but was much more consistent in the first half of last season.

Indeed, Quins coped very well during the international windows and through injuries last season which suggests that they rely less on certain players than we might think.

Poorfour I don't think Quins will have as good a start to the season as they did.

Remember they had virtually the fewest call ups in the RWC which allowed them to rack up the wins with a virtually full strength side. On the contrary Quins will be one of the sides hit the most by international call ups this time round. Also sides will be looking to knock the new champions off their perch - in particular Leicester and Saracens will be hungry for revenge.

There's also the HC which will stretch Quins' squad further as with their group they should go far.

I admit the back up players don't look too shabby but I wouldn't say they are anywhere as good as the players they are replacing.

Jimpy wrote:

Poorfour wrote:

HQ matt wrote:i think sarries and tigers will be strong this year and im sure they will finish in the top 4. quins, like saints, have a job on their hands. the academy has been fantastic but you do worry if they are relying on it too much this season not having brought in any experienced players. the current squad do however have the experience of winning the title last year, that could well be all the experience they need.

Thing is, people were saying that about Quins last season, and for the same reason. Most pundits didn't see any big recruitment and had them as 6-8th in their preseason predictions. This year they have lost a couple of squad players but replaced them by ex-Academy lads like Wallace, Matthews and Buchanan who all got decent AP experience last season.

I feel Quins rely too much on players like Robshaw,Easter,Evans,Brown, Marler. Take away these players then who fills the breach? Quins should still make the top 4 but their strength in depth will be pushed to the limit with international call ups and the expectation they'll do well in the HC.

Robshaw - Wallace. Very exciting player, similar workrate but faster over the ground and a more natural 7. Not as good a decision-maker but still very young. The bigger issue is that Robson, who takes over the captaincy, is not as good at lifting the team as Robshaw

Easter - Guest. Now back to full fitness, I hope we will see a big season from him (at last). Not as powerful and doesn't control the game quite as well, but much faster (has played credibly as a makeshift wing) and more effective in the loose

Evans - Clegg or Botica. We don't have a direct replacement for Evans, but then how many teams (short of the ABs) have a direct replacement for a world class fly half? Clegg is capable of excellent performances but seems to lack the mindset to impose his own game on the team. Botica is an unknown quantity but has impressed in pre-season. Neither of them is likely to turn a game around on their own (which Evans can and does do), but if the rest of the team does its job then so can Clegg.

Brown - Williams or Chisholm. Tom Williams is deceptive. He's not particularly big or blazingly fast but reads the game exceptionally well, and seems to play best in the big stakes games (e.g. Toulouse away last year). Chisholm is rawer, but physically similar to Brown, quite a bit quicker and may in time be even better.

Marler - Lambert. Longstanding member of the squad who struggled at tighthead, but moved to loosehead last season and was immediately much better. Not as exciting or destructive as Marler, by a long chalk, but was much more consistent in the first half of last season.

Indeed, Quins coped very well during the international windows and through injuries last season which suggests that they rely less on certain players than we might think.

Equo Troiano you seem to disagree just for the sake of it. Yes Quins coped very well during the international windows because they missed virtually no players! Quins injury problems were nowhere near as bad as other sides.

https://www.606v2.com/t12177-ap-international-call-ups-who-are-missing-and-how-many-during-the-world-cup

What are you talking about!

beshocked wrote:Poorfour I don't think Quins will have as good a start to the season as they did.

Remember they had virtually the fewest call ups in the RWC which allowed them to rack up the wins with a virtually full strength side. On the contrary Quins will be one of the sides hit the most by international call ups this time round. Also sides will be looking to knock the new champions off their perch - in particular Leicester and Saracens will be hungry for revenge.

There's also the HC which will stretch Quins' squad further as with their group they should go far.

I admit the back up players don't look too shabby but I wouldn't say they are anywhere as good as the players they are replacing.

I totally agree that Quins won't replicate their start to last season. That would be utterly unrealistic. But I still think they will be targeting Top 4 and will have a good chance of making it.

It's true that they had fewer international call ups than some teams, but they also had a very bad injury list during the early part of the season. Taken together, Quins were missing about the same number of players as Sarries and Saints, though not as many as Tigers. It's complete tosh to suggest they were fielding a "virtually full strength side". At one point during the RWC (and their unbeaten run), they were fielding their 3rd choice 6 & 7 and 4th choice 8, a 2nd choice scrum half and wings fresh out of the academy. We may also have had Hopper in for Lowe and Matthews in for Kohn, both in their first AP seasons.

The only way you can argue that that is "virtually full strength" is if you accept that Wallace, Skinner, Robshaw (a first choice player, but pressed into service at 8 only after Easter, Guest and York were unavailable), Dickson, Smith and Stegmann are "virtually" as good as Fa'asavalu, Robshaw (playing in position), Easter, Care, Monye and Williams. You can't have it both ways.

Come the end of the season, it will be disappointing if they aren't fighting on two fronts, but with the HEC group we've got we should be less stretched than most. I seriously doubt they could do an AP/HEC double next year (much though I'd like to see it), but COS has shown in the past that he will be ruthless in targeting the team's goals. I am sure he will focus on whichever seems most achievable if the squad is under pressure.

I think Irish's defence will be improved with Edwards at the helm. Certainly hoping for higher than 8-10!

Poorfour I know it looks like I am highly critical of Quins. I am a bit to be honest but I think Quins are a very good side. They do have good back up players but I don't think their strength in depth is as good as Leicester and Saracens.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out for Quins this season. I think they'll make the top 4 but I think this AP season is going to be tough for all concerned.

Quins never had as many players out as Saracens and Saints. I know you like to think so but it's simply not true. Saracens and Saints had a lot more players at the RWC on top of that they had their own injuries. Maybe saying Quins were full strength is going too far but they were not as depleted as their rivals.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/9606233.stm

Team that beat Tigers at their place looks quite close to full strength.

Only notable absentees look to be Care,Fa savalua and Easter. 3 players.

Beshocked -

The team that beat Tigers at Welford Road:
9 1st choice players: Brown, Lowe, Turner-Hall, Evans, Marler, Brooker, Kohn, Robson, Robshaw
4 2nd choice players: Stegmann, Smith, Dickson, Fairbrother (behind Williams, Monye, Care, Johnston, respectively)
2 3rd choice players: Wallace, York (behind Robshaw, Fa'asavalu, Easter, Skinner, Guest)

It was a strong team, but there were better players out in 6 positions (40% of the team), and in the key back row positions we were missing 4 players who would have been ahead of the players who started.

Did Sarries cope as well with their back row crisis last season?

Skinner and Johnston were on the bench. So much for being first choice.

http://sportinglife.aol.co.uk/rugby-union/match/48226/leicester-v-harlequins

Williams is of course a well known winger but it doesn't mean he's decent.

Saracens had more backrow players out for far longer. They coped pretty well actually.

Burger played 3 AP games. Brown - 5 +1, Saull 12+5.

Compare to Quins:

Easter - 16. Fa a Savalu 10+2. Robshaw - 18

Hmm I wonder who had worse backrow problems?

The only time I can remember a full strength Sarries backrow was against the O's home and away.

Oh, what's the point...

Skinner and Johnston were both returning from injuries at that point. Though it's fair to say that Wallace had overtaken Skinner by the end of the season, and Skinner was never first choice, he was the second choice 7 when Fa'asavalu was at the RWC.

Burger and Brown may have been out for longer, but the loss of Saull looked to me to coincide with Sarries' overall loss of form. Also, while Sarries lost their starting three and Quins always had one starter available, we went for several weeks with 5 back row players injured. It's hard for any club to cope with both situations, but it's daft to argue that a club that kept winning with that many injuries in one position lacks strength in depth.

Anyway, believe what you want. If you think that a first choice Quins squad had an easy time steamrollering 2nd XVs at the start of last season, then that's fine. You might be surprised.

I don't think we will have an easy season at all. But people seem to be forgetting that we played chunks of last season without Easter or Evans. Or Care, or Williams or Monye or Lowe or JTH or Mo or Kohn (frankly the biggest loss!) I don't think we have that great strength in depth to deal with several big matches on the trot but we were covering for injuries and absence just like anyone last season and in the period where we were advantaged because of the RWC we were still missing several key players. And we made a habit of winning when we were expected and also sometimes frankly deserved to lose

The man we are going to miss most is Robshaw without a doubt. And as long as he doesn't get injured he has the kind of motor that will see him play every game of the season if allowed and I suspect it won't affect his form much

I disagree there, Evans will be missed the most unless something miraculous happens to Clegg or Botica can walk straight in to the starting XV.

Easter & Fa'Asavalu can cover pretty well for Robshaw in the experience, leadership and carrying stakes while Wallace/Skinner do the ground work.

If Evans is out though our whole backline becomes as effective as a damp mop in a sword fight!

The pack performance drops a LOT when Robshaw isn't there though

Now that the Quins coffee table book of 2011-12 has arrived, I've been able to check some stats on our squad. They're quite interesting when it comes to looking at strength in depth or otherwise in TW1.

One real surprise was discovering that Quins fielded the hypothetical first XV that I listed above precisely once over the whole season, in the final itself, and that's counting either Gray or Brooker as first choice. If you discount changes to the wingers (on the basis that we have 5 who could be regarded as first team quality) that rises to 2, or 5 if you regard Dickson as being equal first choice with Care (more dubious, but arguable).

If you keep on discounting changes to the wingers, then throughout the winning streak (and ignoring LV= games altogether), on average 3.5 out of the remaining 13 starters weren't first choice in their position. If you count changes to the wings, that rises to just over 5. So throughout the winning streak, Quins were typically fielding only 2/3 of their first XV. Not as bad as Tigers' position, certainly, but less than full strength and I'd be interested to know how, say, Saints or Sarries compare.

Outside the back three (where we have established strength in depth), "backup" players got significant runs in most positions - Hopper at 13, Dickson at 9, York at 8, Wallace and Skinner at 6/7, Matthews at 5, Fairbrother at 3, Buchanan at 2 and Lambert at 1. All of those players are around this year, except York (but we have Guest and Trayfoot instead). The problem positions were the ones where the understudy only got isolated games - 4 (where Vallejos wasn't really a replacement for Kohn), 10 (Clegg never got more than two games in succession and only 3 AP games - two of which we won) and 12 (Casson only played 4 AP or HEC games, but Quins won them all, including Toulouse away).

To my mind, that suggests that the real strength-in-depth issue is giving Clegg or Botica enough game time to settle into the role of fly half.

Bath's problem last season was injuries and having to put in players out of position. At one point we had a squad of 24 available out of 40 with the rest on the treatment table. The academy players were thrown in at the deep end against international sides like Leinster, but this season Catt, Palmer-Newport, Ovens, Mercer, Cook, Heathcote, Williams & Woodburn will all be better for it and are SIMs legacy to Bath.

There is real competition in the front row and locks for the first time in a while which (might) lead to some depth and consistent performance.

Bath do however look light in the back row with only six established names, two being in the above academy list. Fearns need a big season having missed most of the last.

Throw in experienced heads like James, Mears, Attwood, Louw, Claasens, Donald, Barkley, Hipkiss and Abendenon and I am quietly confident, but they need to stay injury free!

Top six should be very achievable, top four maybe not....

beshocked wrote:Gloucester are the dark horses in my opinion

8-15 looks very strong if they stay fit.

8.Morgan/Kalamafoni
9.Cowan
10.Burns
11.Sharples
12.Twelvetrees
13.Trinder
14.JSD
15.May

That looks like a dangerous backline. As well as coaching man sausage-ups in 2nd half of last season, Gloucester also lacked direction at 12, and I think Twelvetrees will be an excellent signing.
Bath will still beat them though...