Federers #1 streak getting interesting

With the surprising win in Cincinnatti, Federer is now guaranteed to be #1 after the US Open whatever happens. A win or final appearance would probably see him go to the O2 as the leader.

This puts 300 in sight and gives him a real shot at the y/e ranking, something I'd never have thought possible, certainly not after he wasted that 2nd match point in the USO semi last year.

It's a stunning turn of events and something he must be very proud of; in one fell swoop he's taken a record that he looked to have blown, probably taking it somewhere it will stand for decades, and destroyed any idea that he only dominated in his peak years because of weak competition.

Interesting in many ways.

Novak is still about 175 points clear in the Race to London.

Fed is nearly 900 points clear in 12 month ranking and, as you say, safe at least until the end of USO.

We then hit a period when Fed has 3000 points to defend and Novak has about 500 (I think). So if Fed were to lose the #1, it won't be until very late in the season.

I think it will come down to the tour finals. I can't see Fed being 1500 points clear going into London. Although I do expect to see him leading.

Yes, they're more or less neck and neck now. Good stuff.

What the Hell was McEnroe on about tipping Murray as y/e #1 after the Olympics? I like John but he's a bandwagonner.

It's pretty much a certainty that Fed will get 300 weeks @ #1. Even if he lost in the first round of the USO (which has never happened before), he would still keep the #1 spot until early October but reasonable progress (quarter finals) or better gives him till mid October and 300 weeks.

Fed is safe now until probably mid October (definitely early October). Novak's lead in the race to London is small @ the moment and even if he won the USO, if Fed makes the final then Novak's lead would be 975 (if he wins) so then Beijing and Shanghai become important for Novak because there's a fairly good chance Fed will hold his home tournament of Basel which he has done so often in the past and will do reasonably @ WTF which he has in the last 3 years. For Fed, winning the USO probably gives him the Y.E. No.1 whereas for Djokovic, it probably will help but won't secure it unless he wins a few more tournaments extra than Fed does.

bogbrush wrote:Yes, they're more or less neck and neck now. Good stuff.

What the Hell was McEnroe on about tipping Murray as y/e #1 after the Olympics? I like John but he's a bandwagonner.

BBC hand out bonuses to 'experts' who hype up Muzza

bogbrush wrote:Yes, they're more or less neck and neck now. Good stuff.

What the Hell was McEnroe on about tipping Murray as y/e #1 after the Olympics? I like John but he's a bandwagonner.

Andy was 3000 points behind Fed in the race when he said that!

All aboard!

I can't quite believe what I am seeing at the moment. I certainly wouldn't have bet on Fed regaining No1, 3 masters (so far) this year and another Wimbledon plus an Olympic silver medal!

An Indian summer for TMF!

time please wrote:An Indian summer for TMF!

2016 Rio on Clay.

time please wrote:I can't quite believe what I am seeing at the moment. I certainly wouldn't have bet on Fed regaining No1, 3 masters (so far) this year and another Wimbledon plus an Olympic silver medal!

An Indian summer for TMF!

Things would be complete if he could win the USO and thereby slam #18 and he would hold the open era record (6) for the most USO titles! That's a record he wouldn't share (he shares the Wimbledon open era record with Sampras). So more history would be made and 2012 would become a surprising turning point! He stands a great chance of adding more glory through winning Basel and could a 7th WTF title beckon thereby securing a definite Y.E. No.1 finish? Even after the USO, there's things for him to achieve but not in my wildest dreams did I think he would achieve so much in a year as if he was still in his pomp! I thought his days of winning multiple Masters 1000 titles in a year were over and the best we were likely to see from him was a swan song slam and then his retirement, well Fed has certainty shaked things up!

bogbrush wrote:Yes, they're more or less neck and neck now. Good stuff.

What the Hell was McEnroe on about tipping Murray as y/e #1 after the Olympics? I like John but he's a bandwagonner.

so true, the amount of times he throws around "the greatest ever' or "greatest shot" is frustrating me, its a shame because he's probably my favourite commentator

CAS wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Yes, they're more or less neck and neck now. Good stuff.

What the Hell was McEnroe on about tipping Murray as y/e #1 after the Olympics? I like John but he's a bandwagonner.

so true, the amount of times he throws around "the greatest ever' or "greatest shot" is frustrating me, its a shame because he's probably my favourite commentator

McEnroe? John McEnroe? This geeza?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLR0UQdauKo&feature=fvwrel

I kind of this this stuff verges on the WWF or whatever it's called these days.

The unthinkable is looming into the realms of the possible.

I still have Djoko as the favourite to get the ye #1, he's got a slight lead in the race http://live-tennis.eu/race and I think that two weeks of bo5 at the US Open is likely to suit him better than Federer, but it's still incredible that Fed has got to where he has this year. He is the current holder/defending Champion of 9 tournaments which is extraordinary at the age of 31.

One minor sadness for me is that the crazy scheduling of Super Saturday may yet have a very significant influence on the ye #1 this year.

Yes, the second Jonny Mac said that I thought "You haven't done the math like I have!" He was just throwing it out there. He didn't really think it through.

With Fed winning Wimbledon and Cincinatti as well as Wimbledon and an Olympics win over Djokovic, as well as nemesis Nadal out, he surely has to be at least equal favourite for the US Open. Anything else is just the usual Fed fan downplaying. He only lost to Djokovic by the marrowest of margins the last 2 years, and Djokovic has fallen down a notch.

Same for the year end no 1. He has his home town tournament to come, Paris is on a very fast surface, and he has been by far the best player at the WTF since it moved to London (he has 2W and 1S while no-one else had reached more than 1 semi). He has at least a 50/50 chance of y/e no 1 now.

A couple of things that could yet play a role in the race:

1- Murray, he is capable of beating either or even winning the US Open.
2- Decision about whether to play Paris or not as it's the week before the WTF. If the y/e no 1 ranking is at stake, I say play it as even with the risk of blowout at the WTF you're more likely to get more points overall by playing both. Of course that depends on how you rate y/e no 1 vs the prestige of WTF itself, but I think y/e no 1 is higher.

Checking the bookies - Djokovic rated as favourite for US Open at all of them.

Betfair however rates Federer as slight favourite for the year end no 1, and one other bookmaker makes it even.

We are now deep enough into the US Open to look ahead a month:

a. Fed is on 294 weeks and has 11,625 points in the bank. Djoko will be on 11,270 points if he wins the US Open.

b. Fed is therefore guaranteed to be No. 1 after the US Open with a lead of at least 355 points.

c. On 01.10.12 Fed gets 90 points back from deletion of his 0 for the Japan Open - taking his lead to at least 445 points.

d. Therefore, the earliest at which Fed can lose No. 1 is 07.10.12, which would leave him on 298 weeks. That would require: (i) Fed to lose the USO R16 (ii) Djoko to win the USO and the China Open. In the likely event that Fed gets to the USO QF or further he is guaranteed to be No. 1 on 07.10.12, namely 299 weeks at No. 1.

e. As at 14.10.12 the ranking will incorporate points from the Shanghai Masters and it would also signal the milestone of 300 weeks at No. 1 if Fed can stay there. There remain too many permutations to spend time having a stab at the likelihoods of that happening - but his chances are more than OK provided he can make the SF at USO and have a decent showing in Shanghai - say the SF. From then on it's 3,000 points for Fed to defend to the y/e vs. 560 for Djoko. If Fed has managed to stay #1 as at 14.10.12 I he's got a real battle on his hands to keep it - especially given that Basel/Paris/WTF are in consecutive weeks.

f. Looking ahead to the ye #1 the more helpful way to put it is that Djoko is 165 points ahead in the calendar race right now and whoever does better between the two from now on will be ye #1. I believe that the USO will be pivotal and I still marginally favour Djoko at the USO and therefore in the race to ye #1. However, if Fed has shown us one thing this season it's not to write him off. It's quite possible that whoever draws Murray at the USO (Fed as we know) and Shanghai and the WTF (group, or Semi) may have a significant bearing on the race.

There is talk of Federer playing DC against Netherlands in the WG Playoffs.

Now Fish has withdrawn we know for certain that Fed has 11,805 points in the Bank and a lead of at least 535 points after the USO, rising to 625 on 01.10.12 when his compulsory 0 from Tokyo comes off.

The earliest Fed can be de-throned from No. 1 is therefore 07.10.12, when he would have spent 299 weeks at No. 1 in total.

Thus:

(a) if Fed loses to Berdych he'll make 300 weeks at No. 1 on 14.10.12 unless Djoko can win the USO and pick up 625 more points at the China Open and the Shanghai Masters combined than Fed can at Shanghai (assuming Fed goes)

(b) If Fed beats Berdych in the USO QF Djoko has to win the USO and pick up an extra 985 points across the China Open and Shanghai Masters;

(c) If Fed gets to the USO Final Djoko would have to win the USO and pick up an extra 1265 points across the China Open and Shanghai Masters to regain No. 1 on 14.10.12.

(d) If Fed were to win the USO he would have a lead of at least 2,175 (assuming he were to win by beating Djoko in the final) which could not be over-hauled until the first day of the WTF, namely 05.11.12 or 303 weeks at No. 1 for Fed.

It's pretty obvious that the ye #1 turns to a very great deal on who wins the USO.

It's pretty obvious that the ye #1 turns to a very great deal on who wins the USO.
_____________________
As it should be. Whoever is the only player to win 2 slams deserves to be the y/e no 1 unless the other can produce a much superior performance elsewhere.

Fed is now certain of the milestone of reaching 300 weeks as #1, which is what I thought he would manage after getting to the Olympic final but I was certain of once he won Cinci.

If I'm correct, even if Djokovic wins the China Open, it's only worth 500 points, so he wouldn't displace Fed, because Fed's lead is bigger (being 635 at least on 1.10.12). Really, it would require Djokovic to win both the China Open and Shanghai (to get close or overtake) but as others have noted, and as you note barrystar, it comes down to the USO in determining the No.1. However, Fed reaching the final means it would require Djokovic having a superb finish to the season which I remain to be convinced of. There's a good argument to say that Fed will hold onto Basel and he may not win Paris but winning the WTF again isn't unlikely, which thus makes Fed a strong contender for the Year End No.1. Basically, to sum it up, if Fed wins the USO, he's more or less the certain Year End No.1 whereas if Djokovic does, he maybe, if he wins the China Open and Shanghai. Basically, Fed is sitting comfortably without needing to win the USO whereas Djokovic isn't.

@luciusmann - I agree that Fed is looking a pretty good lock for 300 weeks as #1 unless Djoko wins his next 14 matches on the bounce, particularly if Fed wins his USO QF and plays Shanghai himself and gets to the QF or SF.

I don't agree with your analysis about the ye #1. It's the points gained so far in the 2012 race that count, last year's points only determine who is No. 1 up to the final competition of this year (including whether Fed makes the 300 weeks).

At the moment in the 2012 race Djoko is 165 ahead of Federer for equivalent rounds of the USO (see http://live-tennis.eu/race)- so if Djoko gets to the USO QF today he'll be 9070 against Fed's 8905 at the same stage. If they both got beaten in the QF or the SF Djoko would carry that slight lead into the rest of the year - and it is slight because it will have 90 points taken off it on 01.10.12 when Fed's 0 for last year's Tokyo no-show is cancelled.

Doko's current race lead means that he has the slight advantage at the moment. Whoever does worse at the USO has a game of catch-up for the ye #1.

Ultimately Djoko is my favourite largely because his USO draw is more favourable than Fed's - although if they both make the F and Fed's SF were first on Super Saturday that would evened out and the advantage of Fed's W/O may step in.

My hope for the rest of the year is that Murray wins the USO and the race for the ye #1 is still alive for a fantastic climax at the WTF, which would require Fed and Djoko to remain within 500 points of one another in the 2012 race to ensure that the #1 ranking did not depend upon the opponent's results against others at the WTF. If that were to happen Fed would probably be the marginal favourite again given his record. Fingers crossed.

Obviously its a great bonus at the end of the year if you finish world number one but do you think it really matters that much?? I mean Federer has been year end number one numerous times, Djokovic was year end number one last year, do you think it really matters that much to the top guys if they are this year?

I think it is different for a player that has not achieved it before but surely it doesnt make all that much difference for players who have. The difference in being seeded 1 and 2 in tournaments seems to be minimal anyway. Just curious as to how important this would be for players. I would have thought that winning slams and other tournaments is what its really all about. Once you have reached number one, objective has been met and anything after that is a bonus.

Maybe you are right though and this means a lot more to the players.

@slasher - I think that the primary mindset of players like Federer is that he wants to win matches and tournaments and he'll let the ranking take care of itself - he does love being #1 and he described returning to #1 as a goal, but I agree that the ranking is probably desirable more as a measure of how he's doing as opposed to a pure end in itself. He's never risked his health by stressing his schedule for the sake of point-hunting and at 31 he's not going to start.

However, he is keenly aware of records and I'm sure now it's feasibly within his grasp he'd be thrilled to match Pete Sampras's 6 ye #1's if he could. Since winning the ye #1 is not in conflict to his primary aim of winning big tournaments, but entirely complimentary, I don't think we'll see him changing his approach or risking an over-stretch to chase it. But if there is a match vs. Djoko at the WTF with ye #1 on the line, they'd both feel the added significance of the match, no doubt. Look at the list of players who have been ye #1 - any player is going to want to be on that list as many times as possible.

Cheers Barrystar, that makes sense alright. Didnt realise he was in line to mach Pete sampras record of 6 ye #1's. That would be a motivator for sombody like Federer.

what I find incredible is how good a year these guys need to have to be considered a good year. The talk of djokovic this year being below par because of his achievements last year. When you look at his record this year:

Oz Open: Won
French Open: Final
Wimbledon: Semis
Still in the hunt at US open

2 Masters series wins and has reached semis and finals of pretty much every single tournament he has entered on every surface. Amazing to think this could be considered a reasonably disappointing year. How these guys can be so good and so consistent and still be considered to underachieve, its mind boggling !

When you think that some of the top 20 players have not even won a single Masters series in their career or made one grand slam final !

barrystar wrote:If they both got beaten in the QF or the SF Djoko would carry that slight lead into the rest of the year - and it is slight because it will have 90 points taken off it on 01.10.12 when Fed's 0 for last year's Tokyo no-show is cancelled.

This is one thing I am slightly puzzled about. If I remember right there's a rule stating that players have to play a tournament in Asia after the US Open (not 100% sure about that though!). Could this be the reason for Fed's zero-pointer for Tokyo?
If that's the case, and he decides to skip Asia again, he'll get a fresh zero-pointer for this year's Tokyo event...

Obviously if he does go to Asia you are absolutely right that his 90 points from Doha (currently non-countable) will be added.

prostaff85 wrote:

barrystar wrote:If they both got beaten in the QF or the SF Djoko would carry that slight lead into the rest of the year - and it is slight because it will have 90 points taken off it on 01.10.12 when Fed's 0 for last year's Tokyo no-show is cancelled.

This is one thing I am slightly puzzled about. If I remember right there's a rule stating that players have to play a tournament in Asia after the US Open (not 100% sure about that though!). Could this be the reason for Fed's zero-pointer for Tokyo?
If that's the case, and he decides to skip Asia again, he'll get a fresh zero-pointer for this year's Tokyo event...

Obviously if he does go to Asia you are absolutely right that his 90 points from Doha (currently non-countable) will be added.

I thought it was the obligation to play 4 ATP 500's including at least one after USO. Last year Fed played less than the quota of 4, this year he has played Rotterdam, Dubai, and the Olympics (which counts as a 500 I believe) and he's scheduled to play Basel so he won't be forced to accept a 0.

I can't recall whether there are any consequences of a no-show at Shanghai or what they'd be - he is entitled to some grace vis-a-vis Masters tournaments because he's played so many matches on tour, but I can't remember whether he's allowed to miss one or two and I think that the consequences are financial rather than points because he'd get a 0 anyway.

Personally I think he will really make an effort to play Shanghai this year if he possibly can because (a) he is acutely aware of his adoring Chinese fanbase who he did not visit last year (b) he's already skipped Canada and (c) if he's going to go deep in one more Masters this year Shanghai is a better bet than Paris which is sandwiched in 3 straight weeks between Basel and the WTF.

Good arguments barrystar about why he may go to Shanghai this year.

There are 4 weeks between the US Open and Shanghai, so that's a decent break, but there's only 1 week between Shanghai and Basel...

So he would have Shanghai, Basel, Paris and WTF in the space of 5 weeks, and together these are worth 4,000 points!

@prostaff - Undoubtedly the fact that this is an Olympic year means that the end of the season is very bunched - all other things being equal whoever of Fed or Djoko has to play serious catch-up in the points race after the USO will be at a substantial disadvantage.

Fed has a history of 'tanking' at Paris. Despite its fast surface suiting his game his record there is arguably the worst of all the Masters tournaments (it certainly was until he won it last year) - one title in 9 appearances, a w/l record of 15-7, giving up one of his two career W/O's there, and 3 no-shows suggests that it does not usually attract his full attention. Perhaps he feels that the good people of Paris see him at RG every year anyway?

Personally I think we are more likely to see him go for it at Shanghai and Basel, play it relatively relaxed at Paris (or even skip it if he can afford to), and then really go for it at the WTF.

barrystar wrote:@luciusmann - I agree that Fed is looking a pretty good lock for 300 weeks as #1 unless Djoko wins his next 14 matches on the bounce, particularly if Fed wins his USO QF and plays Shanghai himself and gets to the QF or SF.

I don't agree with your analysis about the ye #1. It's the points gained so far in the 2012 race that count, last year's points only determine who is No. 1 up to the final competition of this year (including whether Fed makes the 300 weeks).

At the moment in the 2012 race Djoko is 165 ahead of Federer for equivalent rounds of the USO (see http://live-tennis.eu/race)- so if Djoko gets to the USO QF today he'll be 9070 against Fed's 8905 at the same stage. If they both got beaten in the QF or the SF Djoko would carry that slight lead into the rest of the year - and it is slight because it will have 90 points taken off it on 01.10.12 when Fed's 0 for last year's Tokyo no-show is cancelled.

Doko's current race lead means that he has the slight advantage at the moment. Whoever does worse at the USO has a game of catch-up for the ye #1.

Ultimately Djoko is my favourite largely because his USO draw is more favourable than Fed's - although if they both make the F and Fed's SF were first on Super Saturday that would evened out and the advantage of Fed's W/O may step in.

My hope for the rest of the year is that Murray wins the USO and the race for the ye #1 is still alive for a fantastic climax at the WTF, which would require Fed and Djoko to remain within 500 points of one another in the 2012 race to ensure that the #1 ranking did not depend upon the opponent's results against others at the WTF. If that were to happen Fed would probably be the marginal favourite again given his record. Fingers crossed.

I see what you're saying barrystar but I'm not convinced by your logic regarding the Y. E. No.1. As the year goes on, the points gained so far this year are the only ones that eventually count. The fact is, that if Djokovic wins and Fed makes the final, Djokovic then has a 1, 000 point lead (in this year's points race). He may add to that lead by winning China and Shanghai or one of them, however, Fed's a pretty strong favourite for Basel and he may get a good run @ Paris. It sounds like you're hoping the race stays competitive until the WTF, however, that does sound more a hope of yours rather than likely. Theoretically possible but unlikely -when has it happened in the last 10 years? Also, Murray will probably take part in Shanghai so I don't think it's a certainty Djokovic will win it thus Djokovic won't get the more crucial points boost he needs to get the No.1 spot (1000 vs only 500 available for winning China).

Your point about Djokovic's draw @ the USO looks rather redundant now that Fish has withdrawn, Fed has his match with Birdbrain tomorrow but as it is now, he's only looking at two back to back matches, which is doable whereas Djokovic is looking at 3 matches in 4 days. Birdbrain may be tough, however recently, Fed has toughed out the matches against Berdych, noticeably in Madrid where I felt he'd lost it after losing the first set but somehow he came back and beat him. I don't think it will be easy for Federer, I can imagine him losing a set but an in form Federer doesn't lose to an in form Birdbrain, that's more or less a fact. Delpo won't be easy (if he gets him) for Djokovic but while the semi might be easier for Djokovic, the fact is he'll still have had 3 matches in 4 days whereas Federer won't (if he makes the final), so both cancel each other out, in my view thus Djokovic and Fed have an equal chance in the final (should they make it).

I said before Fed won Wimbledon, that he had a good chance of reclaiming the No.1 spot, he reclaimed it sooner than I thought (right after Wimbledon) and he didn't get it in the way I expected or because Djokovic played badly in the American hard court swing (because Djokovic didn't) but he has got it, and most on here (including you I believe) were sceptical it would happen. It has, and I was one of the few people who said he stood a good chance of achieving it! Now he's reclaimed it, I don't think it will be as easy for Djokovic to regain it, as you make out, mainly because it requires Djokovic having a near perfect Asia swing, which I don't see happening (mainly because Djokovic hasn't won any tournaments back to back this year). Hence my view that even Djokovic wins the USO, he isn't certain to get the Year End No.1 whereas if Fed does, he is.

luciusmann wrote:

barrystar wrote:@luciusmann - I agree that Fed is looking a pretty good lock for 300 weeks as #1 unless Djoko wins his next 14 matches on the bounce, particularly if Fed wins his USO QF and plays Shanghai himself and gets to the QF or SF.

I don't agree with your analysis about the ye #1. It's the points gained so far in the 2012 race that count, last year's points only determine who is No. 1 up to the final competition of this year (including whether Fed makes the 300 weeks).

At the moment in the 2012 race Djoko is 165 ahead of Federer for equivalent rounds of the USO (see http://live-tennis.eu/race)- so if Djoko gets to the USO QF today he'll be 9070 against Fed's 8905 at the same stage. If they both got beaten in the QF or the SF Djoko would carry that slight lead into the rest of the year - and it is slight because it will have 90 points taken off it on 01.10.12 when Fed's 0 for last year's Tokyo no-show is cancelled.

Doko's current race lead means that he has the slight advantage at the moment. Whoever does worse at the USO has a game of catch-up for the ye #1.

Ultimately Djoko is my favourite largely because his USO draw is more favourable than Fed's - although if they both make the F and Fed's SF were first on Super Saturday that would evened out and the advantage of Fed's W/O may step in.

My hope for the rest of the year is that Murray wins the USO and the race for the ye #1 is still alive for a fantastic climax at the WTF, which would require Fed and Djoko to remain within 500 points of one another in the 2012 race to ensure that the #1 ranking did not depend upon the opponent's results against others at the WTF. If that were to happen Fed would probably be the marginal favourite again given his record. Fingers crossed.

I see what you're saying barrystar but I'm not convinced by your logic regarding the Y. E. No.1. As the year goes on, the points gained so far this year are the only ones that eventually count. The fact is, that if Djokovic wins and Fed makes the final, Djokovic then has a 1, 000 point lead (in this year's points race). He may add to that lead by winning China and Shanghai or one of them, however, Fed's a pretty strong favourite for Basel and he may get a good run @ Paris. It sounds like you're hoping the race stays competitive until the WTF, however, that does sound more a hope of yours rather than likely. Theoretically possible but unlikely -when has it happened in the last 10 years? Also, Murray will probably take part in Shanghai so I don't think it's a certainty Djokovic will win it thus Djokovic won't get the more crucial points boost he needs to get the No.1 spot (1000 vs only 500 available for winning China).

As far as I can see we are agreed on the central premise, which I have underlined - we both agree on the difference between the calender race and the 12-month ranking - although the two become the same at the ye. The person who does less well at the USO is playing catch-up big time. I don't follow the rest of your logic in this paragraph. If Djoko has a 1,000 point lead, Fed has 4 tournaments in which to catch that up - Basel can only give him 500 points which Djoko is capable of getting close to matching in China, so the odds are Fed would have to score far more heavily than Djoko at Shanghai and/or Paris to reduce those 1,000 points before the WTF. Just as Murray can make life more difficult for Djoko's points accumulation, he can also make life more difficult for Fed playing catch-up if he plays at Shanghai and Paris. Likewise, if Fed outscores Djoko at the USO Djoko has a tight game of catch-up.

Your point about Djokovic's draw @ the USO looks rather redundant now that Fish has withdrawn, Fed has his match with Birdbrain tomorrow but as it is now, he's only looking at two back to back matches, which is doable whereas Djokovic is looking at 3 matches in 4 days. Birdbrain may be tough, however recently, Fed has toughed out the matches against Berdych, noticeably in Madrid where I felt he'd lost it after losing the first set but somehow he came back and beat him. I don't think it will be easy for Federer, I can imagine him losing a set but an in form Federer doesn't lose to an in form Birdbrain, that's more or less a fact. Delpo won't be easy (if he gets him) for Djokovic but while the semi might be easier for Djokovic, the fact is he'll still have had 3 matches in 4 days whereas Federer won't (if he makes the final), so both cancel each other out, in my view thus Djokovic and Fed have an equal chance in the final (should they make it).

I agree that the W/O may turn out to be a real boost for Fed if he beats Berdych, and I agree he's favourite to do so. There are two other factors you don't give enough credit for: (a) Fed may face a far more difficult SF v. Murray than Djoko has; and, (b) who gets to go first on Super Saturday. We don't know, but my hunch is that it will be Djoko's half of the draw with the first SF. I have a recollection that in scheduling Super Saturday the USTA often try to balance out the disadvantage suffered by the half of the draw whose QF is on Thursday and who have to play 3 matches in 4 days as a result.

I said before Fed won Wimbledon, that he had a good chance of reclaiming the No.1 spot, he reclaimed it sooner than I thought (right after Wimbledon) and he didn't get it in the way I expected or because Djokovic played badly in the American hard court swing (because Djokovic didn't) but he has got it, and most on here (including you I believe) were sceptical it would happen. It has, and I was one of the few people who said he stood a good chance of achieving it! Now he's reclaimed it, I don't think it will be as easy for Djokovic to regain it, as you make out, mainly because it requires Djokovic having a near perfect Asia swing, which I don't see happening (mainly because Djokovic hasn't won any tournaments back to back this year). Hence my view that even Djokovic wins the USO, he isn't certain to get the Year End No.1 whereas if Fed does, he is.

I was a skeptic about Fed re-gaining No. 1, you were obviously closer to the truth than me. I agree that re-gaining the #1 ranking significantly before the y/e does require Djoko to have a near perfect Asia swing - that is because Fed's points he gained from Basel/Paris/WTF in 2011 continue to count for the ranking although they are irrelevant to the race. I entirely disagree on the different matter of getting to #1 after the year end when those points for 2011 do not count. Simply, whoever of Djoko and Fed goes into the last 4-5 tournaments with a substantial points advantage in the race gained from the USO is the strong favourite to finish ranked as ye #1, even if it means that in Djoko's case he can only gain the #1 ranking near the very end, or at the very end, after Fed's 2011 points have gone. I agree that Murray is a potential danger - but he is just as dangerous to either man and the guy playing catch-up will have more to worry about.

I understand your pessimism Barrystar, I myself was sceptical of Fed even winning Wimbledon (let alone get the No.1 spot any time soon)and had Djokovic down to win it, however, I think things have changed a lot as a result of Wimbledon. Fed's results post Wimbledon are great: he got to his first Olympic final and won Cinci. Given his hasn't even won a medal before at the Olympics and he usually does well at Cinci (hasn't always won it), his record post Wimbledon is a good sign. Murray may be tough, or he may not, the record he has against Federer is zero wins in grand slam matches and to date, he's take just one set. A win in 3 or 4 sets won't take much out of the tank for Fed if he faces Djokovic the next day.

I think where we disagree is that I think that Djokovic's chance of gaining Year End No.1 turns a lot more on if he wins the USO whereas Federer's doesn't (naturally, if Djokovic wins he's slight favourite whereas if Fed does, I'm fairly certain he is very likely to be). Djokovic's record @ the WTF, (which is in fact fairly important) isn't good. and so I don't really buy your argument that if Fed were to be playing catch up, it's a problem. An undefeated winner of the WTF gets 1, 500 points (75% of a slam), thus Djokovic would need to do well (which he hasn't typically, in most years) to fend of Fed's challenge to Year End No.1. Thus if Djokovic wins the USO (Fed gets to the final) he has a 900 point lead) and China, that then cancels out Fed's potential win at Basel, then it depends on how Shanghai goes for Djokovic as well as Paris for Fed. Thus if let's say Djokovic wins Shanghai, and Fed Paris, then basically it comes down to the WTF. Even though Djokovic, will, even then, have a lead of 900, that's easily outweighed by 1, 500 an undefeated winner gets. Unless Djokovic wins both Shanghai and Paris, I really don't see how he's a much bigger favourite. Winning 2 slams gives Djokovic the slight edge in winning the Year End No.1 but that will need to be matched by good performances at other tournaments (i.e. he needs to win at least one other). At the moment, given Fed's far superior record of winning finals this year, I don't think Djokovic will overtake Fed until Paris. I just don't buy the catch up point as particularly convincing. I don't also understand why you've excluded the WTF from your equation of deciding the Year End No.1, given 1, 500 points is at stake, it's very important and if you include it, Djokovic chances of getting the Year End No.1 doesn't look as strong.

So where are we now, pointswise, with the Fed defeat ? Be surprised if Djoko does not at least reach the final which will make him a big favourite to be year-end number one.

sirfredperry wrote:So where are we now, pointswise, with the Fed defeat ? Be surprised if Djoko does not at least reach the final which will make him a big favourite to be year-end number one.

Anything other than a Djokovic win will mean Djokovic dropping points to Federer. Federer has dropped 360 points from last year where he reached the semi-final. As champion Djokovic picked up 2000 points - so we have the following:

loses in quarter final: drops 1640 points
loses in semi final: drops 1280 points
loses in final: drops 800 points
wins: drops no points

Good point, pardon the pun, NS.
Djokovic needs to win or face losing at least 800 pts....ouch!

Djoko, should he progress further, will increase his lead in the Y/E race i.e. from 1st Jan.

In the race to ye #1 Djoko is guaranteed a lead of 75 points come 01.10.12, and any advance on the QF strengthens his position. He remains my favourite for ye #1.

In the 12-month rankings used for seedings whatever Djoko does Fed will stay No. 1 until 07.10.12. His chances of dethroning Fed before the landmark of 300 weeks at No. 1 on 14.10.12 have been increased by Fed's defeat, but to regain #1 that quickly he really needs to win the USO and have a stellar time at the China Open and Shanghai and for Fed not to play or to do badly.

For me the most likely scenario is that Djoko takes over as #1 very close to the ye, or possibly only once the WTF has finished. If he stays motivated Fed is obviously in with a great chance at the WTF and he needs to stay within 500-700 points or so of Djoko in the race points (not the 12-month ranking) to make sure that he can win ye #1 at the WTF.

To be clear:

This is the position in the race:http://live-tennis.eu/race

Andy Murray's win means he has now qualified for the WTF as you see.

This is the position in the 12-month ranking: http://live-tennis.eu/

Ta very much B'star. Ironic the way the points have gone. It was assumed that Fed would have this great chance to get to number one in September this year as he would do really well at the USO and, perhaps, Djoko would be unable to retain his points.
As it happens, Fed will stay at number one even though he has failed to match his USO 2011 tally.
One thing that I've noticed is just how little damage Rafa's long absence has done to his overall points position. OK, he'll lose 1,200 points on Monday but he still seems a long way ahead of those challenging for a top four position.

I think for Federer the main issue was to break Pete Sampras' record of most weeks at number one ... which he has now done.

It would be interesting to know who the oldest player at number one was in the "modern era".

Nore Staat wrote:I think for Federer the main issue was to break Pete Sampras' record of most weeks at number one ... which he has now done.

It would be interesting to know who the oldest player at number one was in the "modern era".

Fairly sure it was Agassi - aged 33 1/3 (or is that a vinyl LP?).

Nore Staat - Off the top of my head I think it was Agassi around 2003 when he would have been 32/33. As I've mentioned before Agasso had to be told by a journalist that he had got back to number one and seemed quite surprised and, almost, disinterested.
He said number one was not his priority - it was playing well and being able to compete.

I think this loss settles it that Djokovic is favourite for Y.E. No.1 -on the proviso he wins the USO. I certainly will be watching tonight's match with keen interest although the emphasis is still on winning (for Djokovic). Given the players left in the draw, the final I most anticipate would be between Murray and Djokovic. Although it is possible Berdbrain could make it competitive if he faces Djokovic, I'm not sure it would be. So now, things are pretty much in the hands of Djokovic if he wants a second Year End No.1.

I think the real disappointment for those wanting to see a competitive final would be if Berdbrain repeats his Wimbledon 10 effort when he beat Fed in the quarters and took out Djoko in the semis only to fail to give Rafa much of a match in the final.
Tomas faces a tough task. To win it he will have had to beat the top three seeds.

sirfredperry wrote:I think the real disappointment for those wanting to see a competitive final would be if Berdbrain repeats his Wimbledon 10 effort when he beat Fed in the quarters and took out Djoko in the semis only to fail to give Rafa much of a match in the final.
Tomas faces a tough task. To win it he will have had to beat the top three seeds.

Absolutely! Obviously I want to see Murray come through against him anyway but if he did play a blinder to beat Andy I would certainly want him to make it a competitive match rather than a 3 set capitulation in the final.

I am sure there are others Murray would rather see across the net on Saturday, but hopefully he will prevail.

Isn't if funny this tennis game? If you said Berdych would be meeting Murray in the semi-final before even the draw was made I'd have laughed and would think it would be one way traffic. Now I'm terrified and would rather he faced Federer. I'm quite fickle.

Well at the end of the day if Murray wants to win this USO at least he doesnt have to beat Federer or Nadal to get there, and Djokovic hasnt won a title for months nor looked in his usual imperious form.

If you'd have offered him that at the start of the year he'd have bitten your hand off

Lyd - Djoko won in Canada recently, of course, but I take your point. Even if Nole were to win the US, you would not really say he had dominated things in 2012, although a good run by him post-US would strengthen the argument.
The four different GS winners in a caledendar year syndrome - last time it happened was nine years ago - is still a possibility.

lydian wrote:Well at the end of the day if Murray wants to win this USO at least he doesnt have to beat Federer or Nadal to get there, and Djokovic hasnt won a title for months nor looked in his usual imperious form.

If you'd have offered him that at the start of the year he'd have bitten your hand off

Certainly. Murray's chances are looking great: out of the top 3, if there was any player he had to pick for the final, I'm pretty sure Djokovic would be the one he'd have picked (or his fans) and he very well may get that now. There is still the matter of Berdbrain but unlike him, Murray has made not only more grand slam finals as well as win many masters tournaments, he's also won Olympic gold. I've always wondered why Berdbrain comes across arrogant (in his demeanor) when his achievements don't match that arrogance. Hence why personally like players like Nadal, Djokovic and Murray (to some extent, especially after the Wimbledon final this year) and Fed (because of his grace but also humble in victory and defeat).

To be honest, having watched nearly the entire Fed match, I don't think Fed would have beaten Murray in any case, even if Fed had won it in 5 sets (and the match had dragged on and on and even with the rest of 2 days) but then I am of the view that Fed just wasn't 'on' yesterday and that did the damage. Reminds of Fed Vs Djokovic @ Wimbledon this year actually, but Fed played more like Djokovic in that match but Djokovic did keep the match competitive until the third set whereas Fed, after falling 2 sets behind, was looking unlikely to pull through this.

Race to the 2012 year end

In 2012 so far:
Djoko has won 9910 points
Fed has won 8905 points

In order to be #1 at the end of the year Fed needs to outscore Djoko by 1006 points from now on. He is likely to play not more than 4 tournaments with 4,000 points at stake (Shanghai 1,000, Basel 500, Paris 1,000, WTF 1,500). Djoko is likely to play a similar amount.

It's game on. If Djoko responds with any vigour I think he's the real favourite.

Fed's Race for 300 weeks at #1

In the 12 month ranking Fed will have 11895 points to Djoko's 10470 as at 01.10.12 - a lead of 1425 points. In order to stop Fed being #1 on 14.10.12, when he would complete 300 weeks at #1, Djoko needs to win the China Open and Shanghai and Fed not to play Shanghai or pick up less than 75 points. It's very likely Fed will achieve that milestone.

It's very much game on -I got to admit I had pretty much given up when Fed got knocked out by Berdbrain but this victory by Murray means that Djokovic's lead is just 1, 005 so for Fed to get the Year End No.1 he'd need most certainly a win @ Basel and WTF but Paris could be important but it may come down to how China/Shanghai goes for Djokovic -if Djokovic takes the more important one (in terms of points) Fed can afford no slip ups and would have to win Basel, WTF and probably Paris (unless he plays Shanghai) but if Djokovic can only manage a win at China and not Shanghai then it's pretty even and will probably depends on who puts on the better performance @ the WTF. I'm amazed I been proven wrong and the race is going to stay competitive despite Federer not winning the USO.

Due to changes in the calendar, the drop date for both Paris and the WTF '11 is the same: 12.11.2012 which is also the date the year-end rankings will be published. So I guess the most likely scenario is that Federer will only lose his #1 ranking at the very end of the season (unless Djokovic wins Shanghai).