IRB rankings come the end of 2012

With the summer tours done, the 4n's underway, and the Autumn Internationals to come, what do people think the rankings will be come the end of this year? (remmeber the 6N's are not till 2013)

The current IRB standings
1(1) NEW ZEALAND
2(2) AUSTRALIA
3(3) SOUTH AFRICA
4(4) ENGLAND
5(5) FRANCE
6(6) WALES
7(7) IRELAND
8(8) ARGENTINA
9(9) SCOTLAND
10(10) SAMOA

Come the end of the AI's I think the table will look more like

1(1) NEW ZEALAND
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA
3(5) FRANCE
4(2) AUSTRALIA
5(4) ENGLAND
6(6) WALES
7(7) IRELAND
8(9) SCOTLAND
9(8) ARGENTINA
10(10) SAMOA

And thats an honest option with no Bias involved

You could be right, but i think it will be the same as it is now. To be honest.

Surely that should read
4(4) WAL

If Wales get to 4th I'll eat my hat

tigertattie wrote:If Wales get to 4th I'll eat my hat

What sort of hat?

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

tigertattie wrote:If Wales get to 4th I'll eat my hat

What sort of hat?

An edible one.

Biltong wrote:

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

tigertattie wrote:If Wales get to 4th I'll eat my hat

What sort of hat?

An edible one.

I think you should be able to sell your ranking points to the highest bidder. It serves the ABs no good whatsoever to be in a powderpuff pool in the RWC. Much better to be in a pool with two top teams. So we should sell off our number one ranking to the highest bidder, play a few games and charge up the rankings board and then sell them again at the end of the year.

Nice regular cash bonus for the NZRFU, China get exposed to top flight rugby and we get some tough opponents in our RWC pool. Win win.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I think you should be able to sell your ranking points to the highest bidder. It serves the ABs no good whatsoever to be in a powderpuff pool in the RWC. Much better to be in a pool with two top teams. So we should sell off our number one ranking to the highest bidder, play a few games and charge up the rankings board and then sell them again at the end of the year.

Nice regular cash bonus for the NZRFU, China get exposed to top flight rugby and we get some tough opponents in our RWC pool. Win win.

China get to be top seeds in the Pool too.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Biltong wrote:

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

tigertattie wrote:If Wales get to 4th I'll eat my hat

What sort of hat?

An edible one.

France almost never perform well outside of 6N and World Cups. Their results in Autumn internationals over the last few years have been pretty awful bar one or 2 "shocks", plus they lost to Argentina over the summer....
Personally I think Wales are in the lead but England will fight hard for the 4th spot.

Dunno where folk keep getting the idea that Wales are that good!

In the order of:
England
Wales
ireland
Scotland

I could honestly say that either of the teams here could beat either of the others.

I guess the Grand Slam gave that idea. All of those teams have beaten and are capable of beating each other. Some more frequently than others. NZ, SA and Australia don't seem to get caught up in these rankings so much and they know they are capable of beating each other.

We're number one by the way.

Yeah but Wales are the still the fourth best team in the world.

Joking aside we went through this before and looked at the order of games /schedules and the likely affects it will have on ratings/rankings.
Because the current ratings ( and abilities) of the Welsh French and English are very close the rankings come year end could easily be heavily affected by the order games are played in, and it doesnt sit well for England unless they can actually beat NZ.
England may be as good as Wales and France and currently ranked above them but I dont have them down as favourites for a top 4 spot. Especially looking at their coaching team.

I think you forget Argentina.
Argentina is playing TRC, if they lose a match, it will not be much difference in the ranking, but if Argentina win a game his ranking will lift up as beer foam.
Moreover, in autumn window, Argentina will be very sharp after playing TRC, therefore, be careful with Argentina, I think they will be in good position to win more than one game. And as they play away, a victory, can mean many ranking points.

Argie fan wrote:I think you forget Argentina.
Argentina is playing TRC, if they lose a match, it will not be much difference in the ranking, but if Argentina win a game his ranking will lift up as beer foam.
Moreover, in autumn window, Argentina will be very sharp after playing TRC, therefore, be careful with Argentina, I think they will be in good position to win more than one game. And as they play away, a victory, can mean many ranking points.

Well said AF. Australia without Pocock are very beatable.

Are Argentina playing in the AI's?

I wouldn't hold your breath for a visible improvement in form this season, these things take time (just look at Italy and before them France).

yappysnap wrote:Are Argentina playing in the AI's?

I wouldn't hold your breath for a visible improvement in form this season, these things take time (just look at Italy and before them France).

Yes, they are.
Argentina will play in Europe in the AI's:

Wales 10/11
France 17/11
Ireland 24/11
And, remember, Argentina isn't Italy, for sure.

I think Argentina will be interesting. This is the first year that they have really been spend time together and develop as a team outside the world cup. I'm picking they'll rise up the rankings. They could win a game in the rugby comp and they could improve on their performances at the end of the year if they can get their team together. They're still playing with a hand tied behind their back in the end and start of the year but it's not as bad as it used to be.

So Home and Away wins for Arg against Aus. I like that beer foam analogy.

Firstly, I'm not saying England will get the 4th spot. I'm saying that will go to Oz with France going into 3rd.

With reference to Argentina, I honestly think they will loose every game they play up to the end of the year. Argentina are not the team they were when they got the semi's of the WC and what goes up must come down. In a few years time I can see Argentina getting back to 5 or 6 in the world with the exp they will egt form the the 4n's. But ofr the next few years it will be a hard slog for them and i think the fans need to be prepared for alot of losses before consitent form is found

You need to put that in the "I told you so" pile tiger cause no one seems to agree with you.

it's cool. I don;t need to have folk agree with me to know I'm gonna be right

I think you're not far wrong on Argentina. I think they've been overrated for years, relying on over-hyped "stars" like Hernandez and Contepomi.
Their pack, particularly their tight 5 is aging, and not dominant like it was, and the backs are yet to function.

That said, I've always rated the Fernandez Lobbe brothers.

Lobbe (No8) is a fantastic player. The problem is the rest of the team.

I see Argentina as being just like Italy. 2 or 3 really good players, but the rest of the team are average and the cohesion goes out the window.

Italy have the likes of Parrisse, Mauro Bergamassco, Castro but the rest of the team just don;t come to the ball game

Arg are the same, Hernandez, Lobbe, and once upon a time, Pichot.

it's a total lack of depth that runis these teams. But with Arg being in the 4n's this should help, but it is a long long way off.

But good luck to them!

When is the cut off point for setting up the pool stage rankings for 2015? Is it after the AIs this year or do we go another year closer to the rwc before they are used?

thebandwagonsociety wrote:When is the cut off point for setting up the pool stage rankings for 2015? Is it after the AIs this year or do we go another year closer to the rwc before they are used?

After the AIs. The pools are drawn on 3 December.

I'm thinking no real change come December, for top 6 anyway. Wales may have peaked after recent fair surge in 6n, followed since by slight easement in IRB terms. England to 'improve' on the park, but stuck at 4th in the IRB after the AIs. For NH sides it is a case of who loses less badly to the top 3 this autumn.

Are the rankings not now set for the 2015 draw?

if memory serves Scotland had to pull out all the stops to try and get back into the 2nd tier. A feat not done due to the poor 6n's

If I'm wrong then happy days based on my prediction of Arg dropping to 9th!

So after the first two rounds of the RC what are our thoughts on the future seedlings for the 2015 RWC?

Might we see two NH teams make the top four? Or will Argentina keep improving and usurp us all for the elusive fourth spot?

I suspect Argentina will win enough games in the Autumn to climb the ladder.

Indeed. They're currently 8th, but much closer to Ireland in 7th than Scotland in 9th http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html - if they pick up a win in the 4N then they'll probably go to 7th. Catching Wales in 6th is probably a bridge too far in the time available given the gap between Wales and Ireland.

TJ

They will certainly add a factor that we had possibly previously discarded. Deservedly so on last weekends efforts.

I certainly see no way of Scotland climbing the ladder until the 6N

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:Indeed. They're currently 8th, but much closer to Ireland in 7th than Scotland in 9th http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html - if they pick up a win in the 4N then they'll probably go to 7th. Catching Wales in 6th is probably a bridge too far in the time available given the gap between Wales and Ireland.

The AI matches of NH teams vs Argentina might well become just as critical as those against the former tri nations teams..!

maestegmafia wrote:

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:Indeed. They're currently 8th, but much closer to Ireland in 7th than Scotland in 9th http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html - if they pick up a win in the 4N then they'll probably go to 7th. Catching Wales in 6th is probably a bridge too far in the time available given the gap between Wales and Ireland.

The AI matches of NH teams vs Argentina might well become just as critical as those against the former tri nations teams..!

True. The battle for 4th (and possibly even 3rd) could be epic.

TJ wrote:I certainly see no way of Scotland climbing the ladder until the 6N

Right theres no way theyll beat Aus

The big question is whether argentina will be able to keep that passion and intensity running for 4 more tests.

I think by the last two matches they might run out of puff, emotion and passion required from them to perform in 6 tough test matches of this calibre is something they haven't done before.

Not sure if you have ever had the pleasure to visit across the south Atlantic to Argentina bill, but that intensity and passion is intrinsic to their rugby psyche..!

I can't see it faulted. It will be fitness and injury, stressing their strength and depth that will test them.

Tigertattie wrote:With reference to Argentina, I honestly think they will loose every game they play up to the end of the year. Argentina are not the team they were when they got the semi's of the WC and what goes up must come down. In a few years time I can see Argentina getting back to 5 or 6 in the world with the exp they will egt form the the 4n's. But ofr the next few years it will be a hard slog for them and i think the fans need to be prepared for alot of losses before consitent form is found

"Argentina are not the team they were when they got the semi's of the WC" You're right they are not the same, they are better than WC.

bathmad wrote:
I think you're not far wrong on Argentina. I think they've been overrated for years, relying on over-hyped "stars" like Hernandez and Contepomi.
Their pack, particularly their tight 5 is aging, and not dominant like it was, and the backs are yet to function.

That said, I've always rated the Fernandez Lobbe brothers.

Precisely Hernandez and Contepomi just did not play against SA

Argie fan wrote:I think you forget Argentina.
Argentina is playing TRC, if they lose a match, it will not be much difference in the ranking, but if Argentina win a game his ranking will lift up as beer foam.
Moreover, in autumn window, Argentina will be very sharp after playing TRC, therefore, be careful with Argentina, I think they will be in good position to win more than one game. And as they play away, a victory, can mean many ranking points.

I told you so.

TJ wrote:I suspect Argentina will win enough games in the Autumn to climb the ladder.

Based on what though
Wales have morally beaten SA and Australia (3 times) in the last year (more than offsetting their moral loss to Samoa)
Its not hugely uncommon for England, Scotland and Ireland to pick up home wins against SA/Aus (not to mention England recent away "equal score victory", and Scotlands win in Aus)

In recent years theyve been far stronger at home than away, winning almost as many games against 6N opposition as they lose, but in the autumn they always lose to the top 4 ...not having beat one of them in Europe since the 2007 world cup group stage. Against Scotland their record is mixed at best.

Argentina have drawn one game at home against SA ever, not even gaining a half ranking point for their troubles. The evidence theyll be coming over stronger than their NH opposition is scant at best. They have games against Ireland ( admittedly weak over the summer, but dont hold many ranking points to gain from beating) , world cup finalists France who they havent beaten up here in 5 years and only managed a drawn home series against, and England who they have never beaten up here and who matched their draw with SA but away rather than at home.
To get to 4th, unless theyve they pull off something truely remarkable in the 4ns, they are likley going to have to win 2 if not all 3 of those games...it doenst stack up to my mind.

They will have to improve another step to be favourites to win those games, and get another result in the Champs to have a good enough rating to threaten 4th spot. They are still oustiders in my mind.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

TJ wrote:I suspect Argentina will win enough games in the Autumn to climb the ladder.

Based on waht though? I mean theyve never beaten England.

England lost to Argentina in 2006 at Twickenham leading to the fall of Andy Robinson.

http://www.rfu.com/News/2006/November/News%20Articles/EnglandLoseToArgentinaAtTwickenham

maestegmafia wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

TJ wrote:I suspect Argentina will win enough games in the Autumn to climb the ladder.

Based on waht though? I mean theyve never beaten England.

England lost to Argentina in 2006 at Twickenham leading to the fall of Andy Robinson.

Apologies, we dont count that, hes Scottish now

maestegmafia wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

TJ wrote:I suspect Argentina will win enough games in the Autumn to climb the ladder.

Based on waht though? I mean theyve never beaten England.

England lost to Argentina in 2006 at Twickenham leading to the fall of Andy Robinson.

Yes Argentina won over England at Twickenham in November 11 2006 Argentina 25 England 18.
For reference: They have played 16 games.
Argentina won 4
England won 10
Draw 2
Best result for Argentina: Argentina won 33 -13 in Buenos Aires in 1997.
I recommend that you research before you speak without knowledge.

Pete that really was in many peoples eyes a turning point for Argentina. Certainly meant a hell of a lot to them and showed they were not just a force at home in BA...!

Possibly a large inspiration to their future 2007 RWC performance.

What does it mean to morally beat another team?

maestegmafia wrote:Not sure if you have ever had the pleasure to visit across the south Atlantic to Argentina bill, but that intensity and passion is intrinsic to their rugby psyche..!

I can't see it faulted. It will be fitness and injury, stressing their strength and depth that will test them.

Maes we had a program on supersport prior to the test and the President of argentinian rugby was interviewed where he explained the roots, pride and history of Argentian rugby, and specifically expressed the pride of their rugby.

However from a physical standpoint and fatigue setting into bodies and the travel schedule is something they aren't used to, so in my view that can affect their mental approach to the latter part of the competition, they travel to NZ and OZ next, the first game in NZ is going to be a "come back to earth with a thud" experience for them.

Then the reality of the obstacles facing them will set in plus fatigue.

I can only believe the intensity won't be there on the return trip back home.

I may be wrong of course, who knows?

I agree

The majority of their players are not used to the rigours of international rugby.

Last year Argentina played only six tests, this year they have six in a few months..

They don't currently have the depth in their squad to deal with the reprocussions, the players are not protected by their national union either, the overseas players are exploited for their skills by their European clubs.

But this will change.

I imagine more and more argentinians will enter super rugby franchises and hopefully they will get their own franchise soon.

Great for rugby...

Argie fan wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

TJ wrote:I suspect Argentina will win enough games in the Autumn to climb the ladder.

Based on waht though? I mean theyve never beaten England.

England lost to Argentina in 2006 at Twickenham leading to the fall of Andy Robinson.

Yes Argentina won over England at Twickenham in November 11 2006 Argentina 25 England 18.
For reference: They have played 16 games.
Argentina won 4
England won 10
Draw 2
Best result for Argentina: Argentina won 33 -13 in Buenos Aires in 1997.
I recommend that you research before you speak without knowledge.

I had meant to put it as beat at home, as is evident from the next paragraph which wasnt quoted. I have admitted and amended the mistake which I had forgotten (earsed form memory?) the 06 result. Still it doesnt change the argument, its extemely rare for Argentina to turn over top 4 6Ns sides, to take two in one tour is hugely unlikely, especially given that their results havent been great in recent years. The draw against Sa as historic as it was is nothing that the NH sides havent shown themselves capable of (or better) in recent years too.
The sinmple fact of the matter is that Argentinas play, results, and ranking over the past few years and the last 12 months has been similar to that of Scotlands, and not as good as that of France, England or Wales all of whom are currently ranked ahead of them. So unless theres a further noticeable improvement I would suggest its unlikely they will come up in the autumn and win 2 from 3 games.
To write off the the argument because of one factual error which hides an outlayer statistic rather than the broad trend is churlish.

Biltong wrote:What does it mean to morally beat another team?

To end up losing by a far slimmer margin than the thrashing that was widely expected.
A game that while being a loss shows a team a chink of light that the underdog isn't really that far behind the favourite.


But to be honest, morally beat = loss.
And a good loser = LOSER!