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IRB rankings come the end of 2012

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Post by tigertattie Mon Aug 20, 2012 4:54 pm

First topic message reminder :

With the summer tours done, the 4n's underway, and the Autumn Internationals to come, what do people think the rankings will be come the end of this year? (remmeber the 6N's are not till 2013)

The current IRB standings
1(1) NEW ZEALAND
2(2) AUSTRALIA
3(3) SOUTH AFRICA
4(4) ENGLAND
5(5) FRANCE
6(6) WALES
7(7) IRELAND
8(8) ARGENTINA
9(9) SCOTLAND
10(10) SAMOA

Come the end of the AI's I think the table will look more like

1(1) NEW ZEALAND
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA
3(5) FRANCE
4(2) AUSTRALIA
5(4) ENGLAND
6(6) WALES
7(7) IRELAND
8(9) SCOTLAND
9(8) ARGENTINA
10(10) SAMOA

And thats an honest option with no Bias involved
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Post by Biltong Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:14 am

thebandwagonsociety wrote:
Biltong wrote:What does it mean to morally beat another team?


To end up losing by a far slimmer margin than the thrashing that was widely expected.
A game that while being a loss shows a team a chink of light that the underdog isn't really that far behind the favourite.


But to be honest, morally beat = loss.
And a good loser = LOSER!

Cheers, but a moral victory then really only means something for the losing team doesn't it.

The winning team most likely isn't going to see it as a moral loss?
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Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:23 am

Biltong wrote:
thebandwagonsociety wrote:
Biltong wrote:What does it mean to morally beat another team?


To end up losing by a far slimmer margin than the thrashing that was widely expected.
A game that while being a loss shows a team a chink of light that the underdog isn't really that far behind the favourite.


But to be honest, morally beat = loss.
And a good loser = LOSER!

Cheers, but a moral victory then really only means something for the losing team doesn't it.

The winning team most likely isn't going to see it as a moral loss?

It means your 4th best side in the world no matter what the rankings say Whistle


Look it was a jokey comment as was Englands "equal points victory", but wales have shown they can live with SA and Aus on a regular basis home and away. At this point Argentina have shown they can draw at home once ever. If we are going to read into that one game that Argentina are now going to walk all over the best of Europe in their own backyards then Id question our reading abilities.

They have to improve more yet, and get more results, to be anything more than outsiders for that 4th spot.

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Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:23 am

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
Biltong wrote:
thebandwagonsociety wrote:
Biltong wrote:What does it mean to morally beat another team?


To end up losing by a far slimmer margin than the thrashing that was widely expected.
A game that while being a loss shows a team a chink of light that the underdog isn't really that far behind the favourite.


But to be honest, morally beat = loss.
And a good loser = LOSER!

Cheers, but a moral victory then really only means something for the losing team doesn't it.

The winning team most likely isn't going to see it as a moral loss?

It means youre 4th best side in the world no matter what the rankings say Whistle


Look it was a jokey comment as was Englands "equal points victory", but wales have shown they can live with SA and Aus on a regular basis home and away. At this point Argentina have shown they can draw at home once ever. If we are going to read into that one game that Argentina are now going to walk all over the best of Europe in their own backyards then Id question our reading abilities.

They have to improve more yet, and get more results, to be anything more than outsiders for that 4th spot.

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:26 am

PSW I think though you have to take recent results for Argentina and put them into the context of how few tests they play and where the majority of their test players play.

To me they're a team similar to Samoa, Tonga or Fiji. Their players are scattered far and wide, they have no domestic league to speak of and don't play in any tier one competition. At least they have experience in the Pacific Cup whereas Argentina haven't had any meaningful structured games. The games where they have suitable preparation time to form only seem to be in the World Cup. Their other games seem almost like a Barbarians team coming together for a few games. It's difficult to judge them in international terms because they have played so few games (6 tests last year! That's just the 2010 Tri Nations!) and haven't played regular meaningful competition.

I expect the comparisons with Italy will stop when Argentina start to pick up results like last weekend, not to mention wins, and start to learn how to play better away from home. It's great to have them in the 4N and I think there will be a rapid learning curve for them.

You're right to think Argentina are behind the eight ball at the moment with respect to the teams you mention and their results but the gap is not that big. Much like all the teams ranked four to eight. They're all capable of beating one another. Just some more than others.

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Post by gowales Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:29 am

I don't think we can rest any of our players this Autumn or we could be in for a big surprise.
Samoa and Argentina have improved immeasurably. I rate all 3 of Samoa's centres more than ours.
Although they always seem to be crap outside of world cups and during the November internationals. So we will probably scrape by...

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Post by maestegmafia Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:33 am

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:PSW I think though you have to take recent results for Argentina and put them into the context of how few tests they play and where the majority of their test players play.

To me they're a team similar to Samoa, Tonga or Fiji. Their players are scattered far and wide, they have no domestic league to speak of and don't play in any tier one competition. At least they have experience in the Pacific Cup whereas Argentina haven't had any meaningful structured games. The games where they have suitable preparation time to form only seem to be in the World Cup. Their other games seem almost like a Barbarians team coming together for a few games. It's difficult to judge them in international terms because they have played so few games (6 tests last year! That's just the 2010 Tri Nations!) and haven't played regular meaningful competition.

I expect the comparisons with Italy will stop when Argentina start to pick up results like last weekend, not to mention wins, and start to learn how to play better away from home. It's great to have them in the 4N and I think there will be a rapid learning curve for them.

You're right to think Argentina are behind the eight ball at the moment with respect to the teams you mention and their results but the gap is not that big. Much like all the teams ranked four to eight. They're all capable of beating one another. Just some more than others.

I think that we are starting to notice it is the teams from 2nd to 8th that are closer than the IRB rankings show, certainly closer than in previous years.

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Post by gowales Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:35 am

Maes do you think we can beat Aus without our French based players? I can't.

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Post by TJ1 Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:52 am

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote: The draw against Sa as historic as it was is nothing that the NH sides havent shown themselves capable of (or better) in recent years too.
The sinmple fact of the matter is that Argentinas play, results, and ranking over the past few years and the last 12 months has been similar to that of Scotlands, and not as good as that of France, England or Wales all of whom are currently ranked ahead of them. So unless theres a further noticeable improvement I would suggest its unlikely they will come up in the autumn and win 2 from 3 games.
.

Unlikely maybe but way way away from impossible. the argentina teams of recent years played by the home nations have always been missing some players and the players have not had much time together. If not this year then soon we will see them play to their real potential.

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Post by maestegmafia Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:59 am

gowales wrote:Maes do you think we can beat Aus without our French based players? I can't.

I don't think we'll miss the French based players like Phillips, Hook or Byrne, but Jenkins we will, and the English definitely won't release James.

It will be tough but we have a lot of depth and our depth is definitely good enough. Third choice Loosehead will be tough though.

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Post by gowales Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:02 pm

I'm still not sure how Williams or Webb would do, i still think Phillips is important even if he's on the bench, and we could do with Charteris in the lineout!

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Post by Knackeredknees Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:09 pm

Just a quick question, will the wales oz game still be worth any ranking points as it is outside the international window?

As its being played on the day the ranking/seeding is sorted, have wales gained an extra game to sneak in the 4th place or won't it count?

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Post by maestegmafia Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:13 pm

Not sure?

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Post by maestegmafia Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:14 pm

gowales wrote:I'm still not sure how Williams or Webb would do, i still think Phillips is important even if he's on the bench, and we could do with Charteris in the lineout!

Phillips seems to be allowed to play for Wales so I'm hoping he is in best form and will play. Behind him though the battle is far more than Williams and Webb.

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Post by gowales Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:16 pm

That game starts at 2:30 and the ranking/seeding is usually done at night i think, so it should count.









Unless the WRU and ARU are just having another money spinner! Which wouldn't be surprising!


Last edited by gowales on Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:19 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Grammar)

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Post by Knackeredknees Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:18 pm

Didn't think games outside the international window count?

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Post by tigertattie Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:19 pm

How can some predict great things for Argentina off the back of holding out for a draw against SA at home?

you could use the same daft logic that Argentina lost a two test series against Scotland in Argentina so therefore will be pumped by each team they play in the AI's

I think you can only look at the games they are going to play and judge them on these. Following what I think is going to be a really painful showing against Oz and NZ, when Arg come up against Wales, France and Ireland, I can see them getting a bit of a doing to be honest!

France may have lost to Argentina in summer tours, but the french go on holiday and take a while to wake up again.

nothing against argentina, but I think they are going to go on a downward spiral for the next 2 or 3 years until they get bedded into the 4n's and see the benefits from this!
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Post by maestegmafia Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:24 pm

Knackeredknees wrote:Didn't think games outside the international window count?
All internationals count towards rankings

It's just whether the cut off for the seedlings is before or after that match. I presume after.

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Post by Biltong Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:27 pm

Knackeredknees wrote:Didn't think games outside the international window count?
All internationals count, whether it is in time for the draw is another matter altogether.
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Post by Biltong Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:30 pm

I agree with Tigertattie, you can't base any other international fixtures based on the result of a team playing another opponent.

There are far too many variables from one test to the next. Injuries, selections, home advantage, form, different opponent, conditions etc.
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Post by maestegmafia Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:46 pm

Biltong wrote:I agree with Tigertattie, you can't base any other international fixtures based on the result of a team playing another opponent.

There are far too many variables from one test to the next. Injuries, selections, home advantage, form, different opponent, conditions etc.

If you can't judge a team on their event performance, then how can you judge them?

Injuries and so forth just tell you more about the nations strength and depth.

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Post by Biltong Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:52 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
Biltong wrote:I agree with Tigertattie, you can't base any other international fixtures based on the result of a team playing another opponent.

There are far too many variables from one test to the next. Injuries, selections, home advantage, form, different opponent, conditions etc.

If you can't judge a team on their event performance, then how can you judge them?

Injuries and so forth just tell you more about the nations strength and depth.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough.

You can judge a team's performance in a match by considering all the above factors, however predicting future perfromance is difficult as the situation can be influenced by returning players, form, other injuries.

The problem is teams rarely put out the same teams 6 months later, just take OZ as an example, I read that only handful of the players that plyed the semi final of the RWC played this weekend.

Take SA, we are without Bismarck, Coenie Oosthuizen, Vermeulen, Spies, JP Pietersen who would or should be avaiable for November.

How do you predict future performance in comparison to the current squad?


Last edited by Biltong on Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Argie fan Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:52 pm

tigertattie wrote:
France may have lost to Argentina in summer tours, but the french go on holiday and take a while to wake up again.
Its true, but remember that Argentina played those games with an Argentina C team. Just look the players list.
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Post by gowales Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:54 pm

To be fair that was probably a French D team Whistle

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Post by tigertattie Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:55 pm

A teams performance can give you an indication

you cannot base an away tour against against tough NH opponents against a home draw over SA though.

I call it Scotland syndrome

just because Scotland scrape out a win over Oz or SA in an AI does not mean they will march onto 6n's glory a few months later!

When trying to guess a teams chances, you need to look at lots of different factors. Performance against the next opposition, form over the last few games, team tactics, home vs away. weather conditions, previous history in the previous fixture/comp

As we all know, if you rock up to play france in the summer, they are very beatable. if you rock up during the 6n's or a WC, they are a totaly different kettle of fish!
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