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Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)

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Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only) Empty Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)

Post by laverfan Mon 27 Aug 2012, 1:46 am

Inspired by JHM's quote here - https://www.606v2.com/t28203-draw-fixing-a-real-world-analysis-part-1-the-12-vs-12-question#1166946

"In fact, the coincidence of the same two players meeting in the 1st round in consecutive Wimbledons has occurred eight times since 1970."

I wanted to find the eight instances, and possibly near misses.

Consecutive Years @Wimbledon with same R1 matches

YearPlayerIDPlayerNameOpponentPlayerIDOpponentNameATP Verification Link
1970M144McManus, JimR055Riessen, Martyhttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=R055&oId=M144
1971R055Riessen, MartyM144McManus, Jim
1988S288Saceanu, ChristianR016Reneberg, Richeyhttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=R016&oId=S288
1989R016Reneberg, RicheyS288Saceanu, Christian
1990M035Mattar, LuizM338Matsuoka, Shuzohttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=M035&oId=M338
1991M338Matsuoka, ShuzoM035Mattar, Luiz
1993W035Woodforde, MarkM338Matsuoka, Shuzohttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=W035&oId=M338
1994M338Matsuoka, ShuzoW035Woodforde, Mark
2000S604Sa, AndreP398Parmar, Arvindhttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=S604&oId=P398
2001S604Sa, AndreP398Parmar, Arvind
2006B896Becker, BenjaminC514Chela, Juan Ignaciohttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=C514&oId=B896
2007B896Becker, BenjaminC514Chela, Juan Ignacio
2007G569Ginepri, RobbyG415Gonzalez, Fernandohttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=G569&oId=G415
2008G569Ginepri, RobbyG415Gonzalez, Fernando
2010M873Mahut, NicolasI186Isner, Johnhttp://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=I186&oId=M873
2011I186Isner, JohnM873Mahut, Nicolas

There are two additional interesting facts that emerged from this research.

1. Ginepri v Gonzalez turns out even more of an interesting coincidence. W 2007, RG 2008, W 2008.

2. Shuzo Matsuoka (JPN) has figured in two separate instances in this consecutive matrix, with Mark Woodforde and Luiz Mattar.

The Player IDs are from ATP (not ITF), and the ATP Verification links (H2H) have the same player IDs.

Non-Consecutive R1 matches

YearPlayerIDPlayerNameOpponentPlayerIDOpponentName
1970P074Pattison, AndrewV049Van Dillen, Erik
1976V049Van Dillen, ErikP074Pattison, Andrew
1971M111McMillan, FrewS103Sakai, Toshiro
1973S103Sakai, ToshiroM111McMillan, Frew
1971C020Case, RossS123Simpson, Jeff
1974S123Simpson, JeffC020Case, Ross
1976M118Moore, RaymondE005Edmondson, Mark
1978E005Edmondson, MarkM118Moore, Raymond
1976D074Dent, PhilL036Lloyd, John
1981L036Lloyd, JohnD074Dent, Phil
1977C044Connors, JimmyL025Lewis, Richard
1980L025Lewis, RichardC044Connors, Jimmy
1977V049Van Dillen, ErikP059Panatta, Adriano
1980P059Panatta, AdrianoV049Van Dillen, Erik
1977D048Dupre, PatS058Smid, Tomas
1981S058Smid, TomasD048Dupre, Pat
1979E005Edmondson, MarkA022Amritraj, Vijay
1983A022Amritraj, VijayE005Edmondson, Mark
1983F030Fleming, PeterB021Bates, Jeremy
1987F030Fleming, PeterB021Bates, Jeremy
1984B021Bates, JeremyM092Motta, Cassio
1989B021Bates, JeremyM092Motta, Cassio
1987G022Goldie, DanE025Evernden, Kelly
1989E025Evernden, KellyG022Goldie, Dan
1988F035Forget, GuyE004Edberg, Stefan
1996E004Edberg, StefanF035Forget, Guy
1992S331Stoltenberg, JasonH223Haarhuis, Paul
1994S331Stoltenberg, JasonH223Haarhuis, Paul
1993P226Pioline, CedricD214Damm, Martin
1999D214Damm, MartinP226Pioline, Cedric
1994C274Chang, MichaelC378Costa, Albert
1996C378Costa, AlbertC274Chang, Michael
1995B484Burgsmuller, LarsB446Bjorkman, Jonas
2001B446Bjorkman, JonasB484Burgsmuller, Lars
1996R255Rafter, PatrickV141Vacek, Daniel
2001V141Vacek, DanielR255Rafter, Patrick
1996C328Carlsen, KennethL290Lapentti, Nicolas
2003C328Carlsen, KennethL290Lapentti, Nicolas
1999C487Clement, ArnaudP305Portas, Albert
2006P305Portas, AlbertC487Clement, Arnaud
2005A479Almagro, NicolasT315Tursunov, Dmitry
2007T315Tursunov, DmitryA479Almagro, Nicolas
2005B747Benneteau, JulienK316Kiefer, Nicolas
2008K316Kiefer, NicolasB747Benneteau, Julien
2005M762Melzer, JurgenL360Ljubicic, Ivan
2008L360Ljubicic, IvanM762Melzer, Jurgen
2007K435Kohlschreiber, PhilippS963Serra, Florent
2009K435Kohlschreiber, PhilippS963Serra, Florent

I did not put verification links for the non-consecutive matches, but they can be found on the ATP website. (The adventurous posters can try building the URL using the player IDs in this table and use the first table links as an example).

I will take a look at other slams, in the next few weeks. Wink

Anyone interested can build probabilities for such instances. Laugh

All data from ATP Website. E&OE


Last edited by laverfan on Mon 27 Aug 2012, 6:28 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Amended with missing entries (Bates v Motta, Carlsen v Lapentti, Fleming v Bates, Kohlschreiber v Serra))

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Post by bogbrush Mon 27 Aug 2012, 2:03 am

This stuff happens. Most people don't understand probability.

Like, who would think that if you get 23 people together there's >50% probability that two share the same birthday?
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Post by laverfan Mon 27 Aug 2012, 2:24 am

I agree BB, that is why I wanted to put it up before USO started, so this topic does not become a bashing ground again.

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Post by summerblues Mon 27 Aug 2012, 3:16 am

Interesting. "Rare" events happen more frequently than people intuitively expect them.

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Post by Henman Bill Mon 27 Aug 2012, 11:03 am

Isner-Mahut was a wierd conincidence because it was a notable match, but as for the total number of times this has happened, I'm surprised it's not more thinking about it.

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