Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)
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Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)
Inspired by JHM's quote here - https://www.606v2.com/t28203-draw-fixing-a-real-world-analysis-part-1-the-12-vs-12-question#1166946
"In fact, the coincidence of the same two players meeting in the 1st round in consecutive Wimbledons has occurred eight times since 1970."
I wanted to find the eight instances, and possibly near misses.
Consecutive Years @Wimbledon with same R1 matches
There are two additional interesting facts that emerged from this research.
1. Ginepri v Gonzalez turns out even more of an interesting coincidence. W 2007, RG 2008, W 2008.
2. Shuzo Matsuoka (JPN) has figured in two separate instances in this consecutive matrix, with Mark Woodforde and Luiz Mattar.
The Player IDs are from ATP (not ITF), and the ATP Verification links (H2H) have the same player IDs.
Non-Consecutive R1 matches
I did not put verification links for the non-consecutive matches, but they can be found on the ATP website. (The adventurous posters can try building the URL using the player IDs in this table and use the first table links as an example).
I will take a look at other slams, in the next few weeks.
Anyone interested can build probabilities for such instances.
All data from ATP Website. E&OE
"In fact, the coincidence of the same two players meeting in the 1st round in consecutive Wimbledons has occurred eight times since 1970."
I wanted to find the eight instances, and possibly near misses.
Consecutive Years @Wimbledon with same R1 matches
Year | PlayerID | PlayerName | OpponentPlayerID | OpponentName | ATP Verification Link |
1970 | M144 | McManus, Jim | R055 | Riessen, Marty | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=R055&oId=M144 |
1971 | R055 | Riessen, Marty | M144 | McManus, Jim | |
1988 | S288 | Saceanu, Christian | R016 | Reneberg, Richey | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=R016&oId=S288 |
1989 | R016 | Reneberg, Richey | S288 | Saceanu, Christian | |
1990 | M035 | Mattar, Luiz | M338 | Matsuoka, Shuzo | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=M035&oId=M338 |
1991 | M338 | Matsuoka, Shuzo | M035 | Mattar, Luiz | |
1993 | W035 | Woodforde, Mark | M338 | Matsuoka, Shuzo | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=W035&oId=M338 |
1994 | M338 | Matsuoka, Shuzo | W035 | Woodforde, Mark | |
2000 | S604 | Sa, Andre | P398 | Parmar, Arvind | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=S604&oId=P398 |
2001 | S604 | Sa, Andre | P398 | Parmar, Arvind | |
2006 | B896 | Becker, Benjamin | C514 | Chela, Juan Ignacio | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=C514&oId=B896 |
2007 | B896 | Becker, Benjamin | C514 | Chela, Juan Ignacio | |
2007 | G569 | Ginepri, Robby | G415 | Gonzalez, Fernando | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=G569&oId=G415 |
2008 | G569 | Ginepri, Robby | G415 | Gonzalez, Fernando | |
2010 | M873 | Mahut, Nicolas | I186 | Isner, John | http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=I186&oId=M873 |
2011 | I186 | Isner, John | M873 | Mahut, Nicolas |
There are two additional interesting facts that emerged from this research.
1. Ginepri v Gonzalez turns out even more of an interesting coincidence. W 2007, RG 2008, W 2008.
2. Shuzo Matsuoka (JPN) has figured in two separate instances in this consecutive matrix, with Mark Woodforde and Luiz Mattar.
The Player IDs are from ATP (not ITF), and the ATP Verification links (H2H) have the same player IDs.
Non-Consecutive R1 matches
Year | PlayerID | PlayerName | OpponentPlayerID | OpponentName |
1970 | P074 | Pattison, Andrew | V049 | Van Dillen, Erik |
1976 | V049 | Van Dillen, Erik | P074 | Pattison, Andrew |
1971 | M111 | McMillan, Frew | S103 | Sakai, Toshiro |
1973 | S103 | Sakai, Toshiro | M111 | McMillan, Frew |
1971 | C020 | Case, Ross | S123 | Simpson, Jeff |
1974 | S123 | Simpson, Jeff | C020 | Case, Ross |
1976 | M118 | Moore, Raymond | E005 | Edmondson, Mark |
1978 | E005 | Edmondson, Mark | M118 | Moore, Raymond |
1976 | D074 | Dent, Phil | L036 | Lloyd, John |
1981 | L036 | Lloyd, John | D074 | Dent, Phil |
1977 | C044 | Connors, Jimmy | L025 | Lewis, Richard |
1980 | L025 | Lewis, Richard | C044 | Connors, Jimmy |
1977 | V049 | Van Dillen, Erik | P059 | Panatta, Adriano |
1980 | P059 | Panatta, Adriano | V049 | Van Dillen, Erik |
1977 | D048 | Dupre, Pat | S058 | Smid, Tomas |
1981 | S058 | Smid, Tomas | D048 | Dupre, Pat |
1979 | E005 | Edmondson, Mark | A022 | Amritraj, Vijay |
1983 | A022 | Amritraj, Vijay | E005 | Edmondson, Mark |
1983 | F030 | Fleming, Peter | B021 | Bates, Jeremy |
1987 | F030 | Fleming, Peter | B021 | Bates, Jeremy |
1984 | B021 | Bates, Jeremy | M092 | Motta, Cassio |
1989 | B021 | Bates, Jeremy | M092 | Motta, Cassio |
1987 | G022 | Goldie, Dan | E025 | Evernden, Kelly |
1989 | E025 | Evernden, Kelly | G022 | Goldie, Dan |
1988 | F035 | Forget, Guy | E004 | Edberg, Stefan |
1996 | E004 | Edberg, Stefan | F035 | Forget, Guy |
1992 | S331 | Stoltenberg, Jason | H223 | Haarhuis, Paul |
1994 | S331 | Stoltenberg, Jason | H223 | Haarhuis, Paul |
1993 | P226 | Pioline, Cedric | D214 | Damm, Martin |
1999 | D214 | Damm, Martin | P226 | Pioline, Cedric |
1994 | C274 | Chang, Michael | C378 | Costa, Albert |
1996 | C378 | Costa, Albert | C274 | Chang, Michael |
1995 | B484 | Burgsmuller, Lars | B446 | Bjorkman, Jonas |
2001 | B446 | Bjorkman, Jonas | B484 | Burgsmuller, Lars |
1996 | R255 | Rafter, Patrick | V141 | Vacek, Daniel |
2001 | V141 | Vacek, Daniel | R255 | Rafter, Patrick |
1996 | C328 | Carlsen, Kenneth | L290 | Lapentti, Nicolas |
2003 | C328 | Carlsen, Kenneth | L290 | Lapentti, Nicolas |
1999 | C487 | Clement, Arnaud | P305 | Portas, Albert |
2006 | P305 | Portas, Albert | C487 | Clement, Arnaud |
2005 | A479 | Almagro, Nicolas | T315 | Tursunov, Dmitry |
2007 | T315 | Tursunov, Dmitry | A479 | Almagro, Nicolas |
2005 | B747 | Benneteau, Julien | K316 | Kiefer, Nicolas |
2008 | K316 | Kiefer, Nicolas | B747 | Benneteau, Julien |
2005 | M762 | Melzer, Jurgen | L360 | Ljubicic, Ivan |
2008 | L360 | Ljubicic, Ivan | M762 | Melzer, Jurgen |
2007 | K435 | Kohlschreiber, Philipp | S963 | Serra, Florent |
2009 | K435 | Kohlschreiber, Philipp | S963 | Serra, Florent |
I did not put verification links for the non-consecutive matches, but they can be found on the ATP website. (The adventurous posters can try building the URL using the player IDs in this table and use the first table links as an example).
I will take a look at other slams, in the next few weeks.
Anyone interested can build probabilities for such instances.
All data from ATP Website. E&OE
Last edited by laverfan on Mon 27 Aug 2012, 6:28 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Amended with missing entries (Bates v Motta, Carlsen v Lapentti, Fleming v Bates, Kohlschreiber v Serra))
laverfan- Moderator
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Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA
Re: Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)
This stuff happens. Most people don't understand probability.
Like, who would think that if you get 23 people together there's >50% probability that two share the same birthday?
Like, who would think that if you get 23 people together there's >50% probability that two share the same birthday?
bogbrush- Posts : 11169
Join date : 2011-04-13
Re: Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)
I agree BB, that is why I wanted to put it up before USO started, so this topic does not become a bashing ground again.
laverfan- Moderator
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Join date : 2011-04-07
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Re: Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)
Interesting. "Rare" events happen more frequently than people intuitively expect them.
summerblues- Posts : 4551
Join date : 2012-03-07
Re: Draw Coincidences - Wimbledon - 1969-2012 (Open Era Only)
Isner-Mahut was a wierd conincidence because it was a notable match, but as for the total number of times this has happened, I'm surprised it's not more thinking about it.
Henman Bill- Posts : 5265
Join date : 2011-12-04
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