I have a bad, conflicted feeling about this final

by socal1976 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 1:42 am

I have to say since wimby I have not been very confident of Novak's form. And Novak has been seemingly back and playing better while Murray has looked the more vulnerable throughout this tournament. But I feel like somehow Murray and yes even his tortured fans are due, and that somehow the thunderclouds of fate are circling. The ancient Romans felt that the gods gave signs, and thunderstorms and odd weather was often seen as the harbringer of death or change. I feel like Novak is the best hardcourt player in the world right now, is a little better than murray, and in better form; but I feel no confidence tomorrow. Somehow it feels like the stars are lining up for murray and how many times is this guy going to knock on the door and yet fail to break through. It has to happen eventually, I just hope that it doesn't happen tomorrow. Of course I will see this even I wouldn't begrude him his victory despite how dissappointed I would be for Novak to lose his second time in a final of a slam this year. When it does happen for Andy I will be happy for him because the man will have deserved it.

As for the match I think the guy who serves better wins. You have two of the best retrievers and returners in the game playing so if one or the other is off with his serve the other player will have a huge advantage. It seems that murray plays better in the wind based on Saturday's matches so if the weather calls for a windy day Murray will have a big advantage. I think overrall Novak takes bigger swings and the fact that he takes the ball early as well makes for an error filled match if the wind goes crazy. Really I would be surprised it this wasn't a tough 4 or 5 set multihour battle. It will be a very nervous night for the fans of both players. I just hope for a great match and a deserving winner.

by sirfredperry Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:55 am

Socal - funny that if you support someone you tend to fear the worst. Probably Murray fans are feeling that Djoko is going to win, he's the defending champion, the multi-Slam winner and he's looked mighty good int he tournament so far.
Certainly there would be a kind of symmetry about a Murray win in a year when all the top four have had their moments. It would mean each of them would have won a slam and we would have four different male slam winners for the first time since 03. (bet everyone can name them !)
Main prob for those looking for an Andy win is that their man might well play very well...and still lose. It's still only, really, the other big three Andy can lose to if he plays his best.
My verdict? Djoko in four.

by Tropicalfruiter Mon 10 Sep 2012, 9:05 am

Djoko in four, as well.
Funny that we get so mad at the organisers when really they are prostrating themselves before tele and its money. Mammon
is blind to gobal warming and its impositions it seems.
Yes, we do care about the actions of multimillionaire tennis players, who know nothing, nor care of our existence as the planet fries I have a bad, conflicted feeling about this final 1347041234

I have a bad, conflicted feeling about this final 1347041234

. Funny old world. Have a great day all.
Should be climactic any which way.

by Josiah Maiestas Mon 10 Sep 2012, 2:41 pm

Good thread Socal.

Shame you won't be celebrating after final.

zen

by socal1976 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 3:36 pm

sirfredperry wrote:Socal - funny that if you support someone you tend to fear the worst. Probably Murray fans are feeling that Djoko is going to win, he's the defending champion, the multi-Slam winner and he's looked mighty good int he tournament so far.
Certainly there would be a kind of symmetry about a Murray win in a year when all the top four have had their moments. It would mean each of them would have won a slam and we would have four different male slam winners for the first time since 03. (bet everyone can name them !)
Main prob for those looking for an Andy win is that their man might well play very well...and still lose. It's still only, really, the other big three Andy can lose to if he plays his best.
My verdict? Djoko in four.

Yes, sirfred I agree of course murray fans also have a case of the big game jitters right now, certainly more than Djoko fans who have the comfort of 5 slams to fall back on. I mean we know Murray has the ability to turn in an inspired performance, and he has yet to do it in four finals although the last loss was the closest, yet there is a feeling that this guy is due. Would it be ironic if he wins and he and his coach lendl share the record of 4 grandslam appearances without a wind and ending the saga there. That is why I almost feel that the winner of this match comes down to psychology more than technique and execution.

The streak that I find most worrying is 4 straight losses for Novak to other big 4 members going back to the RG final against Nadal. Now granted all those losses except the last bizarre loss to federer came off of the hardcourt and he looks a different player on this surface.

Hopefully, tropicalfruiter and sirfred are right and this is just a case of nerves and not fortune changing its favorite.

by Danny_1982 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 6:29 pm

socal1976 wrote:
The streak that I find most worrying is 4 straight losses for Novak to other big 4 members going back to the RG final against Nadal. Now granted all those losses except the last bizarre loss to federer came off of the hardcourt and he looks a different player on hard courts

I keep changing my mind in terms of how relevant that is socal. It must be in the back of his mind, particularly the OG semi, but as you say this - unlike 3 of those 4 - is on his best surface. the surface on which he moves better than anyone does, and maybe anyone ever has.

I'm really quite nervous, and very pessimistic. I would say Novak in 4 sets, but I don't think I've ever wanted to be wrong as much as this.

by socal1976 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 7:52 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:
socal1976 wrote:
The streak that I find most worrying is 4 straight losses for Novak to other big 4 members going back to the RG final against Nadal. Now granted all those losses except the last bizarre loss to federer came off of the hardcourt and he looks a different player on hard courts

I keep changing my mind in terms of how relevant that is socal. It must be in the back of his mind, particularly the OG semi, but as you say this - unlike 3 of those 4 - is on his best surface. the surface on which he moves better than anyone does, and maybe anyone ever has.

I'm really quite nervous, and very pessimistic. I would say Novak in 4 sets, but I don't think I've ever wanted to be wrong as much as this.

Yes Danny the surface gives me a lot of comfort when you look at the fact that going back to the USO final of 2010 this will be the fifth straight grandslam final appearance for Djokovic on a hardcourt. I think the wind is going to be a huge factor, Murray I think is better suited to deal with windy conditions that equalize Djokovic's edge a bit on the second serve and forehand which represent Novak's best advantages, albeit slight advantages over murray.

But if we get normal weather I think two keys will be who serves better obviously and also who does a better job of going up the line safely yet aggressively a high number of times on both sides. For Novak to win he has to consistently be the first guy to go up the line and he needs to hit with quality when he does because Murray is absolutely brilliant in sprinting down and taking the cross court opening created by the down the line shot and in one sprint and swing of the racquet turning defense into attack. But Novak has to take the initiative and go up the line off both wings early in the rallies. That combined with the short angled cross court forehand should open up enough court for him to hit either behind Murray or right through him to area of court that opens up. Murray to me has to have a big day off the forehand and has to get a large number of first serves in, also he should use quite a bit of that wonderful knifing slice that he has.

by Danny_1982 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:00 pm

Yeah the slice cut Novak up at the OG, not sure it will have quite as much influence tonight though.

I'm not sure I'm going to be able to enjoy this much, I'm too nervous. Way more nervous than the Wimbledon final or Olympic final.

It's serve and return, the player who executes these better will win for me. That's assuming Murray moves well. Apart from the 2 grass finals, Murray has not moved well in his finals. Nerves I presume.

I heard the weather was meant to be like yesterday, which would favour Novak.

by Danny_1982 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:03 pm

I'm wrong, it's quite windy.

by socal1976 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:06 pm

That is a very bad sign for Novak I think Murray will have an edge there he played better in the wind against Berdy than Novak played. Murray has oddly looked very vulnerable in this tournament despite reaching the final. Cilic despite one of the biggest mental collapses I have ever seen should have beaten Andy. And Berdych I think if not for the wind probably would have. The wind will be a big help to Andy in my opinion. I hope it is not so off putting that it damages the quality of play like those first day semis.

by HM Murdock Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:08 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:I'm not sure I'm going to be able to enjoy this much, I'm too nervous. Way more nervous than the Wimbledon final or Olympic final.

I feel the same (but in the other direction)!

I'm taking comfort in the fact that, if Novak doesn't win, I'm glad it's Andy that will. I don't think anyone "deserves" a slam but there is a lot I admire in the way he has gone about trying to get there.

by HM Murdock Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:09 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:I'm wrong, it's quite windy.

Darn it!

by socal1976 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:12 pm

The weather god if there is such a thing must really hate Novak. Didn't like him at RG and doesn't like him at the USO either it seems. Maybe he is a degenerate gambler with money riding on murray ey Murdoch.

by HM Murdock Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:17 pm

socal1976 wrote:The weather god if there is such a thing must really hate Novak. Didn't like him at RG and doesn't like him at the USO either it seems. Maybe he is a degenerate gambler with money riding on murray ey Murdoch.

And turning his SF v Fed into an indoor match!

Is there some kind of nice weather dance we can do?!

by socal1976 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:29 pm

HM Murdoch wrote:
socal1976 wrote:The weather god if there is such a thing must really hate Novak. Didn't like him at RG and doesn't like him at the USO either it seems. Maybe he is a degenerate gambler with money riding on murray ey Murdoch.
And turning his SF v Fed into an indoor match!

Is there some kind of nice weather dance we can do?!

Yeah how could I forget the indoor wimby semi that was not a nice break either. Enough for me to break my rule of never having a drink before 5pm frankly. Damn you Zeus or Neptune or whoever is creating this god forsaken end of summer in New York. I can see the headlines now "Deranged Socal brings up the Neptune Effect". Or "Socal thinks Hurricanes are in the global conspiracy against Djokovic", I can read the one liners now. So just to preempt this is a joke and humor to be clear, either that or Neptune really does have money on Murray.

by Danny_1982 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:31 pm

Sorry guys, but I've been doing a wind dance all day!

It looks a fair breeze, but to be fair it's nothing like Saturday. Nowhere near enough to seriously impinge Novak I don't think.

by socal1976 Mon 10 Sep 2012, 8:50 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:Sorry guys, but I've been doing a wind dance all day!

It looks a fair breeze, but to be fair it's nothing like Saturday. Nowhere near enough to seriously impinge Novak I don't think.

Now we know who to blame if the weather damages Novak's chances. Can I get a picture danny? I need to know what you look like so that I can accurately have someone make a paper mache likeness of you for me to set fire to in case Novak loses. Just kidding of course.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 2:25 am

Well Novak fans no sugarcoating a dissappointing year so far despite the slam and feel for Novak he has to be hurting so much after all the big matches he has lost this year. He has rarely touched top gear this year unfortunately that has occurred very few times this year. A bit poor in the way he handled the wind in this open really needs to work on an abbreviated toss motion or something for windy days. But in tennis there is always another match, and I feel like Djokovic when does find his top gear is the best player in the world but he just hasn't done enough this year, and seemingly tightens up this year in tight moments against his biggest rivals. He has such a depressing tendency this year of play the big points poorly against his biggest rivals this year, when last year he was winning those points.

by break_in_the_fifth Tue 11 Sep 2012, 2:29 am

There will be many other chances for Djokovic too. He's a great player with a lot to be admired about him.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 2:33 am

thanks break, I have a good vibe about Novak in the longterm I have absolute faith his heart and ability. However in some ways I feel vindicated because I have been talking up this beautiful era of competive greatness at the top and have often supported Andy in the face of much criticism. He is certainly showing that it is a big 4 and he is very much in the heart of it.

by Danny_1982 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 2:37 am

socal1976 wrote:
Danny_1982 wrote:Sorry guys, but I've been doing a wind dance all day!

It looks a fair breeze, but to be fair it's nothing like Saturday. Nowhere near enough to seriously impinge Novak I don't think.

Now we know who to blame if the weather damages Novak's chances. Can I get a picture danny? I need to know what you look like so that I can accurately have someone make a paper mache likeness of you for me to set fire to in case Novak loses. Just kidding of course.

Ha, only just saw this socal. Trust me, you did not want to see me dancing. It was not pretty.

Commiserations to you and ur guy Novak. It might be tough to be positive right now, but he fought like a lion to get back into it. He is losing matches that he won last year, but that will change again.

I cant imagine how Andy feels right now. So many doubters and detractors in the British media, and now and forever more he'll be a grand slam champion. I admit I was starting to think it would never happen. So pleased.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 2:42 am

Yeah Danny Andy really did shut up his detractors. Some of the criticisms of him in the british media have really been quite silly. I bet those people will be some of the loudest cheerleaders now. Silver medal, Gold medal, and US open champ now that is pretty good.

by luciusmann Tue 11 Sep 2012, 2:58 am

The only thing that worries me about Novak this year is that he's reached just as many finals this year as in any of his better years but unlike in any of his previous years since he started his ATP career in 2005, he's now lost more than half of the finals this year winning just 3/8. That's a stat that glares from all the other years and it's strange because even in bad years, his success rate in finals was better. You compare that to Federer who's never lost in less than half the finals he's appeared in since the early part of his career and it makes you wonder what's going on with Novak because it's not that he's come back down to earth from 2011 but in this respect is doing worse than he was before it.

It'll be interesting to see how Shanghai now goes because it's critical to Djokovic's chances of clinching Year End No.1 and Murray's won there for the last 2 years. It'll be interesting to see if Fed gives it a shot too.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 3:28 am

Exactly lucius something is up with him he goes on vacations during matches and tournaments like he didn't do last year. And there seems to be some hold up with him hitting his higher gears and maintaining those levels well enough to win the trophy. I think the thing I find encouraging is that he is having good results and getting to the semis and finals and winning some big events despite really being far from his best.

by barrystar Tue 11 Sep 2012, 3:39 am

luciusmann wrote:you wonder what's going on with Novak because it's not that he's come back down to earth from 2011 but in this respect is doing worse than he was before it.

I know that you are referring to his w/l record in finals, but that is still an over-reaction. Before 2011 Djoko never had a year in which:

a. He made 3 slam finals winning 1
b. He made 5 TMS finals winning 2
c. He was leader in the ATP points race after the US Open
d. He was No. 2 in the 12-month ranking after the US Open
e. He had a w/l record of >80%
f. He finished in the top 2.

He will achieve all those milestones - he may yet make #1 at the end of the year. The year has been extremely good, very solid, and it marks an improvement on what went before 2011 even though he's quite evidently been mentally tired for much of it.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 3:46 am

Yes barry for me there seems to be something mentally inhibiting him hitting his best for long enough stretches. Maybe it is a bit of mental fatigue from the grind and personal issues that have only been hinted at. Either way it hasn't been a great season in my mind or even a very good season. To me this has been mediocre, it doesn't matter that he is better than Novak of 2009 or 2010, he is not as good as he can and should be right now.

by CAS Tue 11 Sep 2012, 3:49 am

is it out of the question that Novak still hasn't quite recovered from his grandfathers loss? Nadal seemed off his game for months when his parents split up, must put their job in perspective. Despite all the highs, it is only just a game. Is it harsh for some people to say he should be over it by now? He clearly was a huge part in his life (I say this as Murray and Federer fan)

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 3:53 am

One doesn't know CAS but there seems to be something else that has been talked about and hinted out from the Djoko camp and himself but not specified. I don't think it is just his grandfather. There is some sort of tension in his family or personal life that Novak has indirectly mentioned but not gone into detail as to what it is. I am sure the grandfather passing is also lingering but what has been rumored is that his parents are breaking up. Plus he has had the added pressure of being the man with all that entails in terms of commitments on and off the court. So who knows there does seem to be some sort of mental fatigue going on with him. He is not mentally engaged in almost every point like he was last year.

by CAS Tue 11 Sep 2012, 3:59 am

The way Novak played the 3rd and fourth sets I think may have played a part in Murrays demeanour at the end, like he was stunned it ended so tamely. Once Novak had sunk his teeth in I couldn't see him letting go and Murrays face a few times looked genuinely fearful. There seems to be 2 Djokovics these days, the 2011 Djokovic turns up only when he's in deep trouble, his 'auto-pilot' if you like isn't good enough to get it done at the moment, he seems to stumble a lot anyone else notice that? Noticed it a lot at the French and at Wimbledon.

by **laverfan** Tue 11 Sep 2012, 4:06 am

Is Djokovic paying for his 2011 with his very soul? Crying or Very sad

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 4:17 am

Yes CAS he goes on such wild swings of up and down play over the course of single match its just unnatural. He seems to simply have his mindsnatched away for half hour bursts during the course of the match and then all of sudden he turns it one when he has already spotted murray a two set lead. He simply does not have that consistent focus and is not as engaged in every point like he was last year.

by CAS Tue 11 Sep 2012, 4:25 am

Socal Im curious what you think about where this leaves Djokovic right now, he had the that aura about him that he was a mental rock and was almost a bionic man in long matches. Everything that made people stand in awe last year has been nullified. (his serve disappears a lot, lots of double faults on big points, long rallies he doesn't always take anymore, he's lost a 5th set in a physically demanding match, he failed the 2 big tests of Rafa at the French and Federer at Wimbledon)

Hand on heart do you think he will ever be the main man again? He is still the best mover I have ever seen, and in my opinion the best returner ever. But all the demons he got over in 2011 have seemed to have returned, (winning against Fed and Nadal in big matches, his serve collapsing etc) I hope he gets it together, because last year watching someone stand up to Nadal mentally and physically was my favourite part of 2011, never have I seen Rafa look so perplexed. Made him look human.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 6:47 am

CAS you haven't seen anything from Djokovic yet. No one can live with him from the baseline when he is on. As for his serve it actually has been pretty good he hasn't always hit his forehand behind his serve that consistently. IN my mind Agassi, Lendl, and nadal included Novak is the best baseliner purely from the baseline we have seen. When you look at a combination of pace, depth, change of direction, spin, and early ball striking all balanced togther. He has it off both wings and with the movement and fitness. He isn't far from being the man right now while playing most of the season in 4th gear. Do not mistake a drop in form for lacking the pedigree. Barring serious injury I think he will be the player of the 2010s like Fed was the player of the 2000s and Pete was the player of the 90s or lendl the player of the 80s and Borg before that.

When Andy was playing well in the first two sets he barely won off a floundering Djoko. When Novak was in top gear and Andy faded a bit Novak dominated and won sets 4 and 3 easily. Honestly, I think he will be the man again and quite shortly. Hell he has a good indoor season and he finishes as number 1. It isn't easy to shake off some of these losses but he has a lot of steel mixed in with the talent. He just has been losing a lot of close sets to his biggest rivals by very small margins. Look at set 1 and 2 what he is one or two loose points away in each set. So longterm not worried shorterm a bit concerned.

by CAS Tue 11 Sep 2012, 7:22 am

very strong rebuttal, as a Murray and Federer fan I hope you are wrong! Fed cannot keep doing it forever, I think he can and will sneak a few more slams before he finally calls it a day.

I think Murray as great as he is, will never dominate but he will string great tournaments together no doubt, and seems to have a game that slightly frustrates Novak utilising the slice the same way Federer against him. I do agree with you, when Novak is in full flow on a hard court, especially a slow hard court mainly Aus Open, Indian Wells and Miami he is still the best. The wind helped Murray for sure, if you think about how many games Novak won compared to Andy from 4-0 down in the 2nd set all the way to 6-3 in the 4th its extremely one sided. I think he may have invested too much energy getting back into it, who knows.

at 25 I'm not totally convinced he will be the man of the 10s, Federer was very young at the start of the noughties as was Pete in the 90s. In my opinion Djokovic will go on to have about 8 majors with another stint at Number 1 for sure, but I think he will be sharing the slams evenly with Murray and possibly Juan Martin Del Potro, it will be nice for him join the party as Federer steps out. Nadal, is not done yet either!

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 7:31 am

Can't really argue with much of your logic. But I think of the top 4 only two of them still have room to improve as players, one is murray and the other one is Djokovic. It is not just their youth but they haven't had as many debilitating injuries over their career as poor snakebitten Nadal has.

I agree that 10 or 8 years ago 25 was seen as middle aged for a tennis player but not so much anymore. The modern game seems to favor the qualities of players that are little more seasoned. It requires more developed point construction, consistency, fitness, and durability all are things that young players are generally weak in and take time to develop. Not to mention the onus on returning serve another area that usually takes at least a season or two for young guys on tour to get used to. Plus take into consideration the relative underperformance of the Raonic and tomic group of players under them.

I see the next 2-3 years as being all about Murray and Djoko and to a slightly less degree Nadal and fed. I don't know about fed winning a few more slams 1 or two more tops at most. Nadal will certainly be there but I have a feeling that Novak has already surpassed him on hardcourt and grass and that Andy is getting there as well. I think it is going to be for the next few years if these two don't have serious injuries or mental issues its going to be Novak 1 and Andy 1A. Then Del PO I think and some others maybe Raonic can possilby build a new big 4 or 5 post fedal.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 7:33 am

PS I think Nadal has at least a couple of more slams in him as well but all these chronic leg problems makes me kind of half the total I foresee for him.

by mthierry Tue 11 Sep 2012, 7:46 am

socal1976 wrote:CAS you haven't seen anything from Djokovic yet. No one can live with him from the baseline when he is on. As for his serve it actually has been pretty good he hasn't always hit his forehand behind his serve that consistently. IN my mind Agassi, Lendl, and nadal included Novak is the best baseliner purely from the baseline we have seen. When you look at a combination of pace, depth, change of direction, spin, and early ball striking all balanced togther. He has it off both wings and with the movement and fitness. He isn't far from being the man right now while playing most of the season in 4th gear. Do not mistake a drop in form for lacking the pedigree. Barring serious injury I think he will be the player of the 2010s like Fed was the player of the 2000s and Pete was the player of the 90s or lendl the player of the 80s and Borg before that.

When Andy was playing well in the first two sets he barely won off a floundering Djoko. When Novak was in top gear and Andy faded a bit Novak dominated and won sets 4 and 3 easily. Honestly, I think he will be the man again and quite shortly. Hell he has a good indoor season and he finishes as number 1. It isn't easy to shake off some of these losses but he has a lot of steel mixed in with the talent. He just has been losing a lot of close sets to his biggest rivals by very small margins. Look at set 1 and 2 what he is one or two loose points away in each set. So longterm not worried shorterm a bit concerned.

No offence, but this is a pretty blinkered post and you have a pretty inflated opinion of Djokovic. How can you claim the leader of the points race this season has been playing in 4th gear? So what gear have others been playing on then? Just about every player in the top 4 could claim everything you just did about not playing at their best.

by socal1976 Tue 11 Sep 2012, 7:50 am

I didn't say he hasn't had stretches of top gear look at set 4 today or the final weekend of Australia. Most of the season means just what it says most of the season. 4th gear is good enough for him against 90 percent of the tour on 90 percent of the days. That is why you have seen his recent dip against his top rivals unless he hits the higher gears for long stretches he can't beat these guys and the same goes for them as well.

I think I have a very balanced view of Djoko, certainly he is my favorite player. But I do believe that when you balance all the factors he is probably the most complete baseliner we have seen in the game and that should pay dividends for the next couple of seasons. What exactly is inflated?

by mthierry Tue 11 Sep 2012, 8:24 am

socal1976 wrote:I didn't say he hasn't had stretches of top gear look at set 4 today or the final weekend of Australia. Most of the season means just what it says most of the season. 4th gear is good enough for him against 90 percent of the tour on 90 percent of the days. That is why you have seen his recent dip against his top rivals unless he hits the higher gears for long stretches he can't beat these guys and the same goes for them as well.

I think I have a very balanced view of Djoko, certainly he is my favorite player. But I do believe that when you balance all the factors he is probably the most complete baseliner we have seen in the game and that should pay dividends for the next couple of seasons. What exactly is inflated?

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