Martinez v Chavez: My Round By Round Breakdown

First topic message reminder :

It's not often I go out on a limb to this degree, risking my 606v2boxing reputation (which in my own warped mind is pretty good), but here goes.

But I have been waiting for this fight a long time. So here goes.


Round 1: Will start of a little cagier than we expect. Martinez will circle and look for some openings. Junior won't come forward immediately, but he will still be there to be hit. Martinez will land one or two significant straight lefts toward the end of the round. Expect posturing smiles by both as the bell sounds.

Round 2: Chavez will look to put himself in range. Will move forward and Martinez will look to time him as he comes in. Chavez won't be battered in this round, but Martinez will be finding his range. Expect Chavez to fire some body shots as he gets close to him, but nothing significant will land and Martinez will work his way out of trouble. During this period Martinez will also be using a left to the body to see whether it slows Junior down any.

Round 3: Here is where fight comes alive. Martinez will feel Chavez is there to hit and will be throwing lead lefts and right hand hooks as Junior comes forward. Chavez will throw some haymakers as he comes in, and may come close to tagging Martinez flush, but will always take more punishment than he can give.

Rounds 4, 5 and 6: Chavez will now be getting frustrated in his corner between rounds. He won't have been able to find Martinez and will complain of him running from him. Roach will say he needs to close the gap and not just follow him around the ring. Junior will be breathing heavy in his stool.

This desperate need to start making inroads into Martinez will heighten the action. Chavez will be spurred on in exchanges by the crowd and will cause Martinez some issues. But when Junior gets close Martinez grapples and does good job of covering up inside. When they are at distance Chavez is tagged with strafing shots.

Rounds 7 & 8: By now both men are tired. Martinez will have used some gas, holding Chavez at bay, but will have dented Junior by landing a tremendous percentage of his power punches. Junior will be told by his corner that Sergio is tiring. Daddy will step up to the mat and implore Junior to force him back with straight left and rights, which Junior can't do. Martinez corner will work on keeping him calm and continue the strategy of making Junior pay for coming in. The straight left and right hook will have been huge weapons for Martinez.

Round 9, 10 and TKO: Junior will be gassing due to the work rate he's had to produce to stay in it, and the accumulation of Martinez punches. The weight will come off his punches in the 9th and once Martinez feels that he will star putting together more combos. Junior's will is strong and he will have an Alamoesque last stand in the 9th that will burn the remainder of his tank. By the end of the 10th Martinez is able to tee off to such an extent that Junior is retired in his corner.

Matinez wins by TKO/Retirement after 10 rounds.

Many will admire the gallant bravery shown by Junior, until the next day, when he fails a urine test.

The Key Factors to this fight will prove to have been:

Martinez conditioning and ability to remain strong for 12 rounds
Martinez agility, natural ability and natural power
Martinez being able to land 50% of power shots
Martinez ability to figure out mid-fight what adjustments he needs to make in order to win.
Chavez inability to hit Martinez cleanly and often early
Chavez inability to use straight right and left hands
Chavez lack of conditioning
Chavez inability to pin Martinez against the ropes for any length of time
Chavez inability to adjust during the fight

TMM, I think that I would give the two Brits (Barker and Macklin) an even chance against Chavez Jr, in spite of the latter's recent slight uptick in form. Young Julio's struggles against Zbik and Rubio remain fresh in the memory, as does the fact that Lee, decent but hardly the Second Coming, held the call over him before getting careless.

Martinez may be on the downgrade, but he remains by far the best opponent that Chavez has ever faced. I don't think that Martinez will need to be anything like as dangerous as he looked against Williams et al to do a number on someone who just doesn't look to be in his class.

I respect the opinions of those who see Chavez as a house fighter who is destined to win a controversial decision, but I have to say that I shall be astonished if the judges' machinations will be required this time. If Martinez is anything like on his game, I expect him to stop Chavez around the halfway mark, if not earlier.

Martinez' power against larger middleweights appears to have shot up recently.

He clobbered Dzinziruik but he was a junior middleweight and sparked out Williams who was also a more natural 154 pounder. He never looked like he could stop Pavlik, who was a big bully fighter at 160 like Chavez - although more skilled and heavier handed.

He could hurt Barker and Macklin, but it wasn't the destruction you'd expect from a puncher of Martinez' rep. I'm totally on the side that thinks Martinez has this, but the thought of him battering junior and knocking him out doesn't seem likely. For all his faults, and for whatever reason, Chavez Jr can take a shot.


Az, have you seen the face off between these two? You'll love Martinez in that. Far from anybody who has the personality of a plank. Also he's gawjus.

captain carrantuohil wrote:TMM, I think that I would give the two Brits (Barker and Macklin) an even chance against Chavez Jr, in spite of the latter's recent slight uptick in form. Young Julio's struggles against Zbik and Rubio remain fresh in the memory, as does the fact that Lee, decent but hardly the Second Coming, held the call over him before getting careless.

Martinez may be on the downgrade, but he remains by far the best opponent that Chavez has ever faced. I don't think that Martinez will need to be anything like as dangerous as he looked against Williams et al to do a number on someone who just doesn't look to be in his class.

I respect the opinions of those who see Chavez as a house fighter who is destined to win a controversial decision, but I have to say that I shall be astonished if the judges' machinations will be required this time. If Martinez is anything like on his game, I expect him to stop Chavez around the halfway mark, if not earlier.

I can't really disagree....... by backing, I actually meant supporting Chavez. The sport needs young lads like Chavez and Canelo to keep improving and come good. It doesn't need another 35yo+ dominating.

I hear you, there, although as something of an Oldie myself, I don't mind older boxers dominating, as long as they're genuinely good enough and not merely bed-blocking!

I would also draw a distinction between Chavez and Canelo. Some people on the boards, I've noticed, regard Alvarez as a hype product and insist that it's only his red hair that makes him stand out. I disagree quite profoundly. He may be raw, but I think that Alvarez is a real talent who just needs some refining. Young Julio, on the other hand....I hope that I'm not being unfair in suggesting that he'd be a long way from his current status in the boxing world if he were called anything but Chavez.

Not sure about macklin.....he took a bit of a beating off Martinez....

Barker probably too stiff.....

Think Chavez beats both.......but If Macklin is okay then for me he's the one who may have Chavez number out of the two..

Personally I'd rather see Macklin-Barker....very tasty.

Agree with your final sentence in spades, Truss, it's a fight whose time has surely come. I don't see Chavez-Macklin or Chavez-Barker as likely fights, I should stress, I just think that the two British licence holders would have a reasonable (not definite) chance against Julio, unlike against Martinez, where neither really looked as though they were going to win.

In a year or so, mind you, I'd love to see young Billy Joe Saunders against Barker or Macklin (or Chavez, for that matter). That's a fighter with real potential on the world stage, for me.

It's four years since the last olympics and Saunders is still a "prospect...."

Got to move him on.......All the olympians apart from Degale and Khan have stagnated.....

They are missing their best years..

captain carrantuohil wrote:I hear you, there, although as something of an Oldie myself, I don't mind older boxers dominating, as long as they're genuinely good enough and not merely bed-blocking!

I would also draw a distinction between Chavez and Canelo. Some people on the boards, I've noticed, regard Alvarez as a hype product and insist that it's only his red hair that makes him stand out. I disagree quite profoundly. He may be raw, but I think that Alvarez is a real talent who just needs some refining. Young Julio, on the other hand....I hope that I'm not being unfair in suggesting that he'd be a long way from his current status in the boxing world if he were called anything but Chavez.

Maybe a bit unfair, I don't know. Perhaps he did get fast tracked to a title shot? But all he is doing is following his pay masters and beating who is put in front of him. He can't do more than that. Same with Canelo.

Boxers seem to get alot of critism because they are wrongly regarded as having autonomy, when infact, they are merely pawns in the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie.

Saunders has just turned 23, Truss (a good few years younger than the others), and is having his opposition stepped up markedly. If you saw his performance last night against a thoroughly worthy opponent, I'd hope that you would be getting as excited about his prospects as this old cynic!

Love the slightly Marxist slant to the critique, TMM! And I don't necessarily disagree. "Rise up, boxers, you have nothing to lose but your chains..."

Interesting take from SecoundsOut.com, I will just quote the wrap up:

"The bottom line: The fight will be interesting for a few rounds. Martinez will do well with his movement and awkward punching angles and he’ll win a few of the early frames. However, Chavez will start to unload his tremendous left hook to the body, which will hurt Martinez repeatedly. As the rounds wear on, Chavez will get stronger and stronger. By the time the fifth round ends, the Mexican will have total control of the fight and will never look back. He’ll step on the gas and break Martinez into shrapnel round after round. He’ll be relentless and he’ll create an avalanche of punishment onto the Argentine. Martinez will hang tough but eventually he’ll succumb to the body shots and hard, short hooks and crosses upstairs. He’ll be dropped in the ninth and again in the eleventh. From there, Chavez will be relentless and he’ll force Martinez’ corner to throw in the towel before the round ends. It’ll be the performance of the entire weekend and Chavez will have finally earned his stripes; he’ll make it look incredibly easy from round three onward. Bank on it."

http://www.secondsout.com/headlines/main-headline/the-lowdown-on-martinez-vs-chavez-jr

Do you think that they're actually analysing Julio Cesar Chavez SNR against MARIO Martinez from about 1984, TD?! I mean the "tremendous left hook to the body" and the "relentless" nature of the Chavez attack does remind me more of his dad.

Ballsy call, anyway, and needless to say, I don't agree with a word of it, but I shall be happy to acknowledge the genius of the writer tomorrow, if he's proved to be right.

He will control him from round 3 onwards! When ha schavez ever controlled someone that early

Chavez will hydrate about 22+lbs meaning that he will tire quickly which will allow Martinez to take over and finish well which he always does. Chavez averages about 50 punches a round, below the middleweiight average, so I wouldn't call that relentless and given he will be landing a lower % landed than ever he will tire faster than Martinez and the accumulation of punches will get to him in the last 3 rounds and Martinez may get the stoppage

Well yes, I've seen people picking Chavez Jnr, including many of our fine posters here, but the comprehensive nature of the write up surprised me.

I'm rooting for Martinez and picking him as more often than not, talent wins. Aside from size, Martinez simply has too much speed, power, accuracy and movement in my opinion. But hey, if JCC jnr wins fairly, then all power and credit to him.

My write up is better than his, haha. Martinez KO!

Come on Chavez!

Macken, why are you rooting for Chavez?

That was some powerful stuff he wrote, too bad its going to be completely wrong. So many people think he is going to walk through Martinez??? He is going to be KOed if that is his plan.

Who knows, two hype trains might be derailed tonight...

No other reason than he is considered a no nope by many.

...and an irrational profound dislike of Martinez

Haha fair enough then, really can't see ANYTHING to dislike about Martinez... and I can find plenty about Chavez Jr.

That writer actually thinks Chavez has an edge in speed, Martinez's feet and hands are way faster than Chavez's.... must be a Chavez fan...

He has to be a fan. Martinez seems to beat him in most, if not all, departments.

....but boxing is one of them wierd sports that if you consider individual attributes seperately, then sometimes, you come to the wrong conclusion. It defies logic, but if you put average attributes together in the correct combination then sometimes you have a winner.

Yep, that's why we love boxing, there are just so many different variables.

Well the OP got the bulk of the fight correct... he just didn't credit Jnr with enough heart to see it out until the end, nor foresee Martinez getting so careless. It wasn't a lucky punch, Jnr landed several big shots in the lead up to the knock down. It was a terrific final round, aside from that what a performance from Martinez... he took Jnr to school.

Redrage wrote:Well the OP got the bulk of the fight correct... he just didn't credit Jnr with enough heart to see it out until the end, nor foresee Martinez getting so careless. It wasn't a lucky punch, Jnr landed several big shots in the lead up to the knock down. It was a terrific final round, aside from that what a performance from Martinez... he took Jnr to school.

I almost called it perfectly argh! HA. Agree wholeheartedly with this