Heineken Cup Thread

[Morgannwg]

I'm quite looking forward to this years competition so wanted to get a discussion on it going. This years pools look to be the toughest yet; but some said that last year only for Leinster to be the best team from day one through to the final.

Pool 1
Edinburgh
Munster
Racing Metro
Saracens

This may possibly be the toughest group to decide. Much to the disgust of Beshocked, I will predict Munster to pull through and claim top spot. They are not quite on the wane yet. They've made some intelligent signings and promoted from within the Province. The matchday squad for the H-cup will be some force IMO and their ability to play smart rugby, determined rugby and ability to win away from home is why they get my vote (they will probably be the only ones capable of a double against the gunners).

Pool 2
Benetton Treviso
Leicester Tigers
Ospreys
Toulouse

Well things are looking bleak for the Ospreys again. Drew with Treviso away from home in last seasons competition, lost to them this season and are still unable to score tries. Tigers are improving but are not a good H-cup team yet and the Italians will make progression tough for them, so I believe four-time winners Toulouse will top the group.

Pool 3
Biarritz Olypique Pays Basque
Connacht
Harlequins
Zebre

Connacht should be targetting 3 wins as their aim, that's 2 against Zebre and 1 against the English team they beat in last years competition. Quins should be aiming to top the group. But I can not for life of anyone see past Biarritz topping the group (probably being the number 1 seed by the end of the pool stages aswell). In the past few years they have really gone out and punished the weak teams, I predict them to get 20 points from the Connacht/Zebre fixtures and 4-6 points from the matches against Harlequins. Quins are good but Biarritz might revert to some 10 man rugby which will be enough to beat the English champions. The Harlequins may still make the final 8.

Pool 4
Castres Olympique
Glasgow Warriors
Northampton Saints
Ulster

Another very tough one to call here. I don't know much about Castres this season but I get the feeling they're just another unimpressive French outfit with a big budget. They're capable of some big wins at home but won't win the pool. Glasgow were good but changed coaches, which was the decision of the SRU I believe, and have since gone backwards instead of trying to develop their improvement further. Saints are good, but overhyped and not good enough to top this pool. I think Ulster will be the only ones progressing from this group. They are also an improved team, completely outdone in last years final but no doubt learnt a harsh lesson about mixing in with big teams of Europe.

Pool 5
ASM Clermont Auvergne
Exeter Chiefs
Leinster Rugby
Scarlets

Exeter will get a tough introduction to Heineken Cup rugby in this group. I do rate them highly and they are capable of causing upsets, BUT, I think despite how good they've been on the scene they will be whipping boys. Leinster and ASM will give them a harsh introduction to H-cup rugby, a very harsh one. I feel sorry for the Scarlets. Just as they look to be getting a settled team by sorting out their areas of weakness they get grouped with the current european champions and the top French team; also with these a stubborn Exeter Chiefs targetting both of their fixtures in Parc-y and Sandy. I'm going to back the Scarlets to beat Leinster and Clermont once each though. This year I predict Clermont to finally get the upper hand on Leinster and top the group. Leinster have the ability to get enough points, some way or another, enough that will see them still make the top 8.

Pool 6
Cardiff Blues
Montpellier
Sale Sharks
Toulon

Well this is an uninspiring group but here goes. Toulon are the strongest team and will top the group. Montpellier are unknown to me, 'whocares' could shed some light on the French. Cardiff and Sale are rubbish. Blues in particular look very weak up front. Could they turn it around in time with the signings they have made or will they keep hold of average, under-performing players... I wouldn't put it past them doing the double on either Sale or Montpellier though.



Final 8
This isn't in order of points difference as I can't call that, apart from the brackets.
Biarritz (top seeds)
Munster
Toulouse
Ulster
ASM
Toulon
Harlequins (best runners up)
Leinster (best runners up)

There's then the Amlin drop down. Scarlets might get there with their ability to score tries. Looking at this years pools though it's hard to see where teams will win away from home and pick up bonus points. Really tough to call but interested to hear what everyone else is thinking.

[Pot Hale]

Leinster should aim for 9th spot to get into the Challenge Cup - they haven't won that yet - getting a bit sick of the Heineken at this stage.

[LeinsterFan4life]

very good thread,
but you are really over-rating biarritz imo who are only in the HC because they won the amlin. the amlin final was one of the worst games of rugby ive ever seen! they also lost away to treviso and had difficulty beating them at home last year. i dont expect anything from them this year.

[Pot Hale]

The top Pro12 teams could shift into the Challenge Cup and make it a decent comp.

[LondonTiger]

Biarritz have lost to Aironi in recent years - so not sure how that constitutes "really gone out and punished the weak teams".

An interesting and thought provoking analysis, but we shall see how much natural bias has affected some of the conclusions.

[AsLongAsBut100ofUs]

very good thread,
but you are really over-rating biarritz imo who are only in the HC because they won the amlin. the amlin final was one of the worst games of rugby ive ever seen! they also lost away to treviso and had difficulty beating them at home last year. i dont expect anything from them this year.

In fairness, Biarritz currently top the T14 (unbeaten along with Toulon) after 4(?) rounds - think they look a different proposition to the last couple of years

[AsLongAsBut100ofUs]

So Morganwg, that would mean 4 French, 3 Irish and 1 English club in the QFs - I wonder if that woud be enough French participation to undermine their pact with the English clubs?

[LondonTiger]

So Morganwg, that would mean 4 French, 3 Irish and 1 English club in the QFs - I wonder if that woud be enough French participation to undermine their pact with the English clubs?

Nah cause it is about money and voting rights - which is why T14 clubs started the whole mess, and why PRL went along with them.

[BoyneRFC]

I agree that Leinster will most probably finish as runners up. That would mean an away QF.

BUT

If we come in 8th and get either Munster or Ulster in the QF (or semi), the game will be in the Palindrome, with the final to come there too.

Everything is stacked in Leinster's favour.... but 3 on the trot??? We can't do 3 in a row...














... can we?

[BoyneRFC]

Might I add that I feel that Toulouse will sneak under the radar (if they ever do) and win it in Dublin this year.

Some of the tries Ive seen in the Top 14 this year have been frightening. Rougerie and Fofana seem on fire as well...

In any case, you can bet it will be an all Irish, all French or an Franco Irish affair at the final (as per).

[rodders]

Rougerie and Fofana are bums.

I think Leinster will top their group. They have the advantage of playing ASM away first, plus they are the better side.

Ulster to win the competition though .

[beshocked]

Morgannwg nothing wrong with you predicting Munster. They are a decent side and will be a tough test. Of course I absolutely disagree but you are entitled to your opinion.

Your reasons are foolish though because they perfectly sum up Saracens

Leicester aren't a good HC team with 2 titles to their name? I think that pool is too tough to call. Even the O's with their poor HC record will be a big threat. They have done well against Leicester in HC encounters and beating Leinster shows they can beat the best.

Got to watch out for Treviso though. I fancy them to pull off an upset or two.


Very correct about Biarritz punishing weak teams. This pool is Quins vs Biarritz in my opinion. I expect Quins to win 5 matches, losing in Biarritz. Biarritz to win 4 or 5. I actually think Connacht could well upset Biarritz and hand Quins the pool ironically.

Biarritz aren't great on the road but very strong at home.


Pool 4 is clearly Saints vs Ulster. I feel the Pro12 sides are writing off Saints which is foolish. Saints beat Ulster in their last HC encounter so will be confident they can do it again. Could go either way.

Pool 5 - clearly Leinster-Clermont which could go either way.

For once we agree about Pool 6. Toulon should top the pool.The other sides have nothing to lose though.

[whocares]

from a french pov, I expect :
- Racing to perform better than last year and possibly qualify if and only if they win their 1st home game against munster in stade de france. saw them a coupl of time and at least defensively they are much improved.
- Montpelier is average at the moment without their argies so dont expect them to put much effort this year again - they will fight for the AC spot with Sale at best.
- Toulon is the real dark horse for this year HC. they are yet to be threatened in the top14 and have such depht its frightening. a bit of waste of talent with such a narrow minded manager in charge but they can show glimpses of flair on time to time. they should qualify and get a home QF.
-Castres, look good on paper but will probably disappoint again so same as what Morgan said
- Toulouse and Clermont should in theory qualify but difficult to judge where as they havent really peaked yet.
- Biarritz should get one of the best runner up spot. they are a tough nut to break and always manage LBPs at worst. this time they are not in trouble so far in the top14 so they might show a better brand of rugby. zebre is not even as good as aironi.

[beshocked]

whocares racing metro to qualify seriously? First time I've heard that.

Could you tell me a bit more about the Racing Metro side and where the confidence comes from? I know they have the legendary Sireli Bobo (three cheers) but other than him?

[LondonTiger]

Beshocked,

We all tend to overplay the strength (and to be fair sometimes the weaknesses) of the teams we watch day in day out.

Racing have 2 wins and 2 defeats (by 1 and 2 pts to Clermont and Toulon) in the T14. They are obviously looking quite strong to our French friend.

Looking at Pools 1-4, Sarries, Tigers, Quins & Saints all have fighting chances of topping their groups. However it is equally possible that all could fail to make the Amlin even.

[beshocked]

LondonTiger I agree with that except for Quins. They can't mess up their golden opportunity for a HC quarter final. Surely not?

Tigers and Sarries have the toughest tasks at hand but as probably the two toughest sides in the AP will feel like that they can prevail.

Saints have an easier task but they need to concentrate this time round.

Exeter unfortunately have next to no chance. I expect them to be gritty and might even get an upset or two but against arguably the two best sides in Europe it's an uphill battle.

Sale aren't looking good at the moment. They have one of the easier pools but as they are the weakest English side in the competition I don't have that much optimism for them.

[Portnoy]

Just as long as the Tigers continue to be written off as no-hopers and a declining force in Europe, I'm happy.

About time this home quarters rubbish is abandoned imo though as the imbalance in the pools is a perennial bias on the whole competition.

[BoyneRFC]

Just as long as the Tigers continue to be written off as no-hopers and a declining force in Europe, I'm happy.

About time this home quarters rubbish is abandoned imo though as the imbalance in the pools is a perennial bias on the whole competition.

Well results to date haven't been great, have they ! Tiger's star has faded, but whist I don't see anyone writing them off, they are hardly one of the big boys in the comp any more. Of course, things might be different, this year. Who knows.

[whocares]

last year racing metro went through all sorts of internal problems and got rid of most of the coaching staff (mannix out, berbizier moving etc). they also got rid of some deadwood like chabal and nallet.
new additions like szarzewski and ducalcon make then very solid up front now. they also did a scrum half swap with Agen and got machenaud who is our best prospect in this position (imo better than parra and yachvil without the kicking).
they also have good backs such as germain, fall, estebanez and Chavancy and thats without their argies (hernandez, imhof). current form is good and got a bit unlucky against clermont in their last game.

[beshocked]

Portnoy I actually agree. It does distort the competition. Teams get disproportionally rewarded for an easier pool whereas getting through a tougher pool means you are punished.

Biarritz have had an Italian team in their pool more times than I can remember.

[BoyneRFC]

Biarritz have had an Italian team in their pool more times than I can remember.

As have the Tigers....

[BoyneRFC]

Biarritz have had an Italian team in their pool more times than I can remember.

As have the Tigers....

2002–03
2004–05
2008–09
2009–10
2010–11
2011–12
2012–13

Every year for the last 5 years in fact. Must be a record !

[Pot Hale]

The ideal pool stage results would be:

Saracens
Toulouse
Quins
Saints
Clermont
Toulon
Leicester
Biarritz

[Portnoy]

IRB broadcasting regulations appear to be expressed at http://www.irb.com/mm/document/lawsregs/regulations/04/23/23/42323_pdf.pdf

And the meat is:

13.2 No Rugby Body, Club or Person or any combination thereof may
negotiate or enter into or benefit from any contract for the grant of any
Broadcasting Rights in respect of any Match or Matches except with the
express written consent of the Union within whose territorial jurisdiction
such Match is or Matches are to be played, such consent to be in the
absolute discretion of the Union.
13.3 No Rugby Body, Club (or Person with knowledge of such breach) may
take part in any Match to which Broadcasting Rights have been granted in
breach of the provisions of Regulation 13.2.

Maybe there is another bit of regulation somewhere, but prima-facie the ERC claims that the breaking of IRB regulations appear to be tenuous to say the least.

[beshocked]

Biarritz

2004-5
2005-6
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13

Pretty ludicrous that the only season Biarritz haven't had an Italian team since 2004-5 is 2009-10.

[rodders]

Not being funny here but what I don't get is how many fans of the AP teams can simultanously argue that their teams are heavily disadvantaged against the Rabo sides but stil,l not only suggest that their team will do well, but also get miffed if they are written off?

Am I missing something?

[beshocked]

The ideal pool stage results would be:

Saracens
Toulouse
Quins
Saints
Clermont
Toulon
Leicester
Biarritz

Amen to that.

[BoyneRFC]

Biarritz

2004-5
2005-6
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13

Pretty ludicrous that the only season Biarritz haven't had an Italian team since 2004-5 is 2009-10.

That's only one more time than Tigers over the 10 year period !!! Hardly a reason to whinge and cry foul....

[BoyneRFC]

Biarritz

2004-5
2005-6
2006-7
2007-8
2008-9
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13

Pretty ludicrous that the only season Biarritz haven't had an Italian team since 2004-5 is 2009-10.

That's only one more time than Tigers over the 10 year period !!! Hardly a reason to whinge and cry foul....

I think it's fair to say that Tigers fans would have been cutting off their nones to spite their faces if they argued for qualification as they would have faced tougher pools over the years ! Easy Italian games have meant that 70% of the time over the last 10 years, qualification was virtually guaranteed !!

[LondonTiger]

Boyne,

Stop having a ****ing go at tigers fans, when it is a Sarries fan you are arguing with.

[LondonTiger]

Not being funny here but what I don't get is how many fans of the AP teams can simultanously argue that their teams are heavily disadvantaged against the Rabo sides but stil,l not only suggest that their team will do well, but also get miffed if they are written off?

Am I missing something?

We think they will do well because right or wrong we think they have the quality to do well. that we do not must of course be due to the machiavellian plots and advantages heaped on Rabo teams and of course nothing to do with a lack of quality.


(note - tongue in cheek for anyone unable to spot)

[beshocked]

LondonTiger I only mentioned Biarritz. Boyne brought Tigers into the conversation.

Tigers have had Italian teams but their pools have been tough to counter act the Italian presence.

Ulster and Clermont counter acted Aironi. Toulouse and Ospreys counter act Treviso. Also Treviso aren't that weak these days.

[Sin é]

IRB broadcasting regulations appear to be expressed at http://www.irb.com/mm/document/lawsregs/regulations/04/23/23/42323_pdf.pdf

And the meat is:

13.2 No Rugby Body, Club or Person or any combination thereof may
negotiate or enter into or benefit from any contract for the grant of any
Broadcasting Rights in respect of any Match or Matches except with the
express written consent of the Union within whose territorial jurisdiction
such Match is or Matches are to be played, such consent to be in the
absolute discretion of the Union.
13.3 No Rugby Body, Club (or Person with knowledge of such breach) may
take part in any Match to which Broadcasting Rights have been granted in
breach of the provisions of Regulation 13.2.

Maybe there is another bit of regulation somewhere, but prima-facie the ERC claims that the breaking of IRB regulations appear to be tenuous to say the least.

The ERC is actually 'owned' by the 6Ns Rugby Unions. All the Unions are represented on its Board of Directors. Only the English would appear to have handed over the broad casting rights to their Premier League company.

[BoyneRFC]

London Tiger, don't be so offensive or defensive mate. No need for the language.

A well renowned Tigers fan (Portnoy) suggested that the current set up was unfair.

I pointed out that it's actually biased towards the Tigers and I have no idea why he's complaining about it.

Beshocked - as above. I only mentioned Tigers as it was a Tigers fan having a whinge when the set up has benefited his team more than anyone else !! (OK, not Biarritz)

[BoyneRFC]

Tigers have had Italian teams but their pools have been tough to counter act the Italian presence.

:facepalm:

[LondonTiger]

Portnoy did not claim that the 1/4 final qualification was unfair for Tigers - just that it is unfair.

and it is. It is damn stupid that just two runners up qualify. Various teams may have benefited from this, including tigers. It is still dumb.

but looking at your reactions you care little about fact, and more about winding people up.

[rodders]

Not being funny here but what I don't get is how many fans of the AP teams can simultanously argue that their teams are heavily disadvantaged against the Rabo sides but stil,l not only suggest that their team will do well, but also get miffed if they are written off?

Am I missing something?

We think they will do well because right or wrong we think they have the quality to do well. that we do not must of course be due to the machiavellian plots and advantages heaped on Rabo teams and of course nothing to do with a lack of quality.


(note - tongue in cheek for anyone unable to spot)

Ah ok get it now

[BoyneRFC]

Not really.

The system is not unfair. Tigers got the Italians 7/10 and that was their luck. The luck of the draw. If I draw your name 7/10 in a raffle, it means you were lucky. It doesn't mean that the raffle is unfair.

Drawing the Italians is the luck of the draw. It's 10 guaranteed points, if you are a serious contender.

But here's the thing.

People like Portnoy want to change the system, basically, so that there are no more Italians or Scots. This would make "lucky" teams like Tigers draw perhaps another AP team or even another top 14 team.

It makes no sense for Tigers fans to go on about the se up being unfair when Tigers have been the major beneficiary over the years !!!

Not picking on the Tigers. I am highlighting the none sense of complaining about a system when you were the "lucky" ones to benefit over the years.

In terms of making Holly Wilaboobie harder for the Italians to participate, I think the message here is be careful what you wish for. No Italians = Tougher groups = No more 10 point gifts.

[BoyneRFC]

What is "Holly Wilaboobie"?

Anyway I feel you get what I am saying.

[Mickado]

London Tiger, don't be so offensive or defensive mate. No need for the language.

A well renowned Tigers fan (Portnoy) suggested that the current set up was unfair.

I pointed out that it's actually biased towards the Tigers and I have no idea why he's complaining about it.

Beshocked - as above. I only mentioned Tigers as it was a Tigers fan having a whinge when the set up has benefited his team more than anyone else !! (OK, not Biarritz)

That's not really true though, the system is not biased towards anyone, It's the luck of the draw. And if it's not, then there's something seriously rotten going on.

[BoyneRFC]

Yeah, wrong choice of words as pointed out above. Biased should read "biased" as iterated by Portnoy.

[beshocked]

Mickado it does mean that the likes of Biarritz and Cardiff have inflated European rankings. Dropping down to the Amlin can actually improve your European ranking too.

The system can make average sides look good.

[BoyneRFC]

Mickado it does mean that the likes of Biarritz and Cardiff and Tigers have inflated European rankings. Dropping down to the Amlin can actually improve your European ranking too.

The system can make average sides look good.

Fixed that for you.

[Mickado]

Mickado it does mean that the likes of Biarritz and Cardiff have inflated European rankings. Dropping down to the Amlin can actually improve your European ranking too.

The system can make average sides look good.

Yeah but in the case of Biarritz, they were in the HC final 3 years ago and Cardiff made the Semi final (and were first seeds if memory serves me) 4 years ago, both would count towards their seeding recently.

And doing literally anything in Europe can improve your ranking, simply being in the Amlin could be worth more points than a team earned 4 years previous, or the team above them could have won the cup or made the semis 4 years previous, which no longer counts towards their score. The European rankings are what they are, plenty of systems are available, all of them have their flaws, this is the one we use and personally I don't see any need to change it, unless a better one presents itself.

[beshocked]

Biarritz exploited an easy HC group and rode their home advantage to the final.

Cardiff had a soft pool and used home advantage to get a semi.

Not uncommon. Numerous sides have done this.

Also those were 3 and 4 years ago respectively.

The European rankings are awful in my opinion.

[XR]

Cardiff had a soft pool and used home advantage to get a semi.

Nothing quite like going from soft to a semi in the comfort of your own home

[Portnoy]

People like Portnoy want to change the system, basically, so that there are no more Italians or Scots. This would make "lucky" teams like Tigers draw perhaps another AP team or even another top 14 team.

I'd like for someone (Boyle in particular) to back that assertion with quotes (in context) to demonstrate where my extreme views have been comments have been expounded.

I'm not concerned at all about who (or from where) competes for the HEC - just that the HEC contains the best sides do.

In fact I've gone to the trouble of proposing a system which could involve 32 clubs compete in a European competition - the top sixteen of which go forward to the HEC (or equivalent) and the bottom sixteen the Amlin equivalent.

I have cast doubt on the reasonability of additional places being made available to Unions to gain default places for unqualified sides and I've done so for years.

As with the home-tie convention of pool winners whilst the pools are inevitability uneven.

[Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler]

What else are they going to be based on though BS? A retrospective look at this years results sent back in time? Internet poll? The opinions of some guy?
The ERC rankings arent just a "seeding", they exits to reward clubs who try year on year and keep achieving. it does bias slightly in favour of the middling rabonations who qualify every year, but really with the completies of the system for avoiding getting all the wlesh together etc doesnt make that great a difference.
The groups do seem a touch unfair sometimes, but thats more to do with a lot of teams being very evenly matched and qualification being tough in any group.
Its not like the world cup where they can make sure any sides that have a vague chance of winning would have to screw up royally to not get out their groups the ECC which has a ridiculous disparity between the good average and poor teams.
I really cant see a system that would see an even split, especially when you get just one conspicuously weak team (zebre) in the draw.

[Mickado]

Biarritz exploited an easy HC group and rode their home advantage to the final.

Cardiff had a soft pool and used home advantage to get a semi.

Not uncommon. Numerous sides have done this.

Also those were 3 and 4 years ago respectively.

The European rankings are awful in my opinion.

Ah c'mon, Saint did the exact same in 2011. It happens.

[Exiledinborders]

IRB broadcasting regulations appear to be expressed at http://www.irb.com/mm/document/lawsregs/regulations/04/23/23/42323_pdf.pdf

And the meat is:

13.2 No Rugby Body, Club or Person or any combination thereof may
negotiate or enter into or benefit from any contract for the grant of any
Broadcasting Rights in respect of any Match or Matches except with the
express written consent of the Union within whose territorial jurisdiction
such Match is or Matches are to be played, such consent to be in the
absolute discretion of the Union.
13.3 No Rugby Body, Club (or Person with knowledge of such breach) may
take part in any Match to which Broadcasting Rights have been granted in
breach of the provisions of Regulation 13.2.

Maybe there is another bit of regulation somewhere, but prima-facie the ERC claims that the breaking of IRB regulations appear to be tenuous to say the least.

The ERC is actually 'owned' by the 6Ns Rugby Unions. All the Unions are represented on its Board of Directors. Only the English would appear to have handed over the broad casting rights to their Premier League company.

You may be right but that is irrelevant. The regulations state that games in England can only be sold with permission of the RFU. However, As part of the PRL/RFU agreement the RFU granted all rights to broadcasting club games to the PRL. The games that PRL have sold rights to are in England they have not attempted to sell rights to other games under the control of other unions. So the PRL have the right to sell them.

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