Heineken Cup Thread

by Morgannwg Wed 12 Sep 2012, 11:43 pm

First topic message reminder :

I'm quite looking forward to this years competition so wanted to get a discussion on it going. This years pools look to be the toughest yet; but some said that last year only for Leinster to be the best team from day one through to the final.

Pool 1
Edinburgh
Munster
Racing Metro
Saracens

This may possibly be the toughest group to decide. Much to the disgust of Beshocked, I will predict Munster to pull through and claim top spot. They are not quite on the wane yet. They've made some intelligent signings and promoted from within the Province. The matchday squad for the H-cup will be some force IMO and their ability to play smart rugby, determined rugby and ability to win away from home is why they get my vote (they will probably be the only ones capable of a double against the gunners).

Pool 2
Benetton Treviso
Leicester Tigers
Ospreys
Toulouse

Well things are looking bleak for the Ospreys again. Drew with Treviso away from home in last seasons competition, lost to them this season and are still unable to score tries. Tigers are improving but are not a good H-cup team yet and the Italians will make progression tough for them, so I believe four-time winners Toulouse will top the group.

Pool 3
Biarritz Olypique Pays Basque
Connacht
Harlequins
Zebre

Connacht should be targetting 3 wins as their aim, that's 2 against Zebre and 1 against the English team they beat in last years competition. Quins should be aiming to top the group. But I can not for life of anyone see past Biarritz topping the group (probably being the number 1 seed by the end of the pool stages aswell). In the past few years they have really gone out and punished the weak teams, I predict them to get 20 points from the Connacht/Zebre fixtures and 4-6 points from the matches against Harlequins. Quins are good but Biarritz might revert to some 10 man rugby which will be enough to beat the English champions. The Harlequins may still make the final 8.

Pool 4
Castres Olympique
Glasgow Warriors
Northampton Saints
Ulster

Another very tough one to call here. I don't know much about Castres this season but I get the feeling they're just another unimpressive French outfit with a big budget. They're capable of some big wins at home but won't win the pool. Glasgow were good but changed coaches, which was the decision of the SRU I believe, and have since gone backwards instead of trying to develop their improvement further. Saints are good, but overhyped and not good enough to top this pool. I think Ulster will be the only ones progressing from this group. They are also an improved team, completely outdone in last years final but no doubt learnt a harsh lesson about mixing in with big teams of Europe.

Pool 5
ASM Clermont Auvergne
Exeter Chiefs
Leinster Rugby
Scarlets

Exeter will get a tough introduction to Heineken Cup rugby in this group. I do rate them highly and they are capable of causing upsets, BUT, I think despite how good they've been on the scene they will be whipping boys. Leinster and ASM will give them a harsh introduction to H-cup rugby, a very harsh one. I feel sorry for the Scarlets. Just as they look to be getting a settled team by sorting out their areas of weakness they get grouped with the current european champions and the top French team; also with these a stubborn Exeter Chiefs targetting both of their fixtures in Parc-y and Sandy. I'm going to back the Scarlets to beat Leinster and Clermont once each though. This year I predict Clermont to finally get the upper hand on Leinster and top the group. Leinster have the ability to get enough points, some way or another, enough that will see them still make the top 8.

Pool 6
Cardiff Blues
Montpellier
Sale Sharks
Toulon

Well this is an uninspiring group but here goes. Toulon are the strongest team and will top the group. Montpellier are unknown to me, 'whocares' could shed some light on the French. Cardiff and Sale are rubbish. Blues in particular look very weak up front. Could they turn it around in time with the signings they have made or will they keep hold of average, under-performing players... I wouldn't put it past them doing the double on either Sale or Montpellier though.

Final 8
This isn't in order of points difference as I can't call that, apart from the brackets.
Biarritz (top seeds)
Munster
Toulouse
Ulster
ASM
Toulon
Harlequins (best runners up)
Leinster (best runners up)

There's then the Amlin drop down. Scarlets might get there with their ability to score tries. Looking at this years pools though it's hard to see where teams will win away from home and pick up bonus points. Really tough to call but interested to hear what everyone else is thinking.

by beshocked Mon 24 Sep 2012, 8:11 am

Tougher group last year? TJ are you joking?

Munster are much stronger than Cardiff.

Saracens are much stronger than London Irish.

by TJ1 Mon 24 Sep 2012, 8:25 am

Ok - tough group last year :-) Edinburgh are a much better team than many who do not see them play believe. Saracens are no great threat and Munster are not that good. None of the real top teams in that group

by beshocked Mon 24 Sep 2012, 8:32 am

Wow. Just wow.

by TJ1 Mon 24 Sep 2012, 8:50 am

Remember Edinburgh were rightly semi finalists last year and have a stronger squad this year. It will be between Munster and Edinburgh for the group win. Edinburgh beat Toulouse last year in the quarters and only narrowly lost to Ulster in the semi, Sarries got humped by Clermont in the quarters, Munster got beat by Ulster in the quarters. Nothing there to frighten Edinburgh.

Edinburgh have a better defense than last year and made Leinster work hard for a win at home last weekend

by gowales Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:00 am

I just find it incredible that you think that Edinburgh's group this year is weaker than last years.

Just because team A beats team B, it doesn't mean that because team C beat team A they will beat team B. You're looking at this much too simply. Rugby doesn't work like that

by TJ1 Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:13 am

I accepted that it wasn't tougher last year - but neither group could be considered easy in my view compared to some - no really weak teams

Its just that we have avoided the real dangers again and have a group that it is both possible and plausible to win. I was happy with the draw as an edinburgh fan - could be a lot worse

by SecretFly Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:23 am

Oh are we going on last year?????????????????

Leinster to get their 4th HC then.............................

Yeah, I am being sarcastic, lest I get accused of being arrogant Wink

by gowales Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:24 am

Either way i don't accept this notion that it's just between Munster and Edinburgh.

If Sarries can slow the game down like they have been doing, i haven't seen anything from Edinburgh to suggest that they could deal with that sort of scenario. The Ospreys for instance just couldn't break free at all.
Racing Metro are looking pretty good this year as well, but they're inconstant and if they loose a couple of games they will lose interest in competing but don't underestimate them they gave you and Leinster really good games before if you're going to dig up past results!

You are probably being a bit biased but there's nothing wrong with confidence i suppose, as long as it's not arrogance...

by beshocked Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:35 am

Got to say I am shocked that TJ is so confident.

Cardiff and London Irish were hardly setting the world alight last season were they?

Gowales my confidence has taken a heavy knock in the last 2 weeks. I agree though.

by **LondonTiger** Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:47 am

TJ is allowed to be confident. I just feel that many fans of other teams are waiting to see which is the real Edinburgh team - the one that got to the HC semi or the one that struggled in the Rabo.

Their group this year is much harder than last year - but just a few more weeks and we will see.

by red_stag Mon 24 Sep 2012, 10:00 am

gowales wrote:Either way i don't accept this notion that it's just between Munster and Edinburgh

I dont get this either. As a Munster fan it is Saracens without a shadow of a doubt that worry me.

Look at the team they could put out. Without knowing the ins and outs of who is on form/included etc you have Schalk Brits, John Smit, Matt Stevens, Moritz Botha, Kelly Brown, Wigglesworth, Hodgson, Farrell, Barritt, Strettle, Ashton, Goode.

I think that Munster and Sarcens are a step up from Edinburgh. My own feeling was that they had no difficult teams in their pool, they had a great rousing win over Toulouse and were fairly easily beaten by Ulster in the semi finals.

They will take points off teams but I will consider it a massive failure if we do not get 8 points from our two matches with them. I think they are actually the easiest in the pool.

by BoyneRFC Mon 24 Sep 2012, 11:04 am

red_stag wrote:
gowales wrote:Either way i don't accept this notion that it's just between Munster and Edinburgh

I dont get this either. As a Munster fan it is Saracens without a shadow of a doubt that worry me.

Look at the team they could put out. Without knowing the ins and outs of who is on form/included etc you have Schalk Brits, John Smit, Matt Stevens, Moritz Botha, Kelly Brown, Wigglesworth, Hodgson, Farrell, Barritt, Strettle, Ashton, Goode.

I think that Munster and Sarcens are a step up from Edinburgh. My own feeling was that they had no difficult teams in their pool, they had a great rousing win over Toulouse and were fairly easily beaten by Ulster in the semi finals.

They will take points off teams but I will consider it a massive failure if we do not get 8 points from our two matches with them. I think they are actually the easiest in the pool.

If RM take it at all seriously, they will win the group. I don't see Munster making it into the QF's, unfortunately.

by whocares Mon 24 Sep 2012, 3:04 pm

RM is still work in progress: they have rather improved defensively but have trouble converting their dominance into tries and are missing some of their creative players badly (hernandez and imhoff). I feel their home game against munster is coming a tad too soon and I have a feeling this will turn into a replay of last year castres-munster...will be interesting anyway, cant wait for the HC to start.

by Welshmushroom Mon 24 Sep 2012, 3:41 pm

A lot will be decided in that first 2 rounds no doubt. Saracens have a tough opener in Edinburgh. Given they are not scoring tries at the moment and how much the Scottish outfit have impressed me I think they wont be coming away with anything. LBP is probably best outcome there. That puts massive pressure on their home game against Racing. Munster for me are clear favourites - playing very well early doors already. I dont see Saracens qualify on the basis this group will take points off each other.

Fixture list is almost as important as the draw itself. Leicester have a stinker. They have no chance in the opening game. I expect Ospreys to beat Treviso (just) at home first round. That basically sets up round two for a must win Leicester vs Ospreys home clash which the English side cant afford to lose. Much has been made of the Ospreys rubbish start of the season but Friday night showed that their tight 5 will be a match for anything out there (even without P. James). I actually think Leicester will end up losing this game.

Exeter have probably been the unluckiest side alive. Round 2 exit as it just dont get tougher than Leinster & Clermont first up.

Other than Harelquins I really dont see where an English QF will come from this year. Dont feel bad though because thats still one more than us Welsh. Ospreys represent our best chance and thats been ruined by another tough pool draw. After watching Scarlets the tight 5 struggled again badly. I think every team in Europe will be looking at that Ospreys win and targeting them upfront to stop them getting possesion. Adriaanse better be one hell of a tighthead!!!

Basically its probably looking like this in the Qtrs
3 Irish
3 French
1 Scottish
1 English

by GunsGerms Mon 24 Sep 2012, 3:52 pm

I think we will get a surprise winner this year or possibly Clermont who are probably due a win.

by Islingtonv2 Mon 24 Sep 2012, 3:56 pm

Welshmushroom wrote:A lot will be decided in that first 2 rounds no doubt. Saracens have a tough opener in Edinburgh. Given they are not scoring tries at the moment and how much the Scottish outfit have impressed me I think they wont be coming away with anything. LBP is probably best outcome there. That puts massive pressure on their home game against Racing. Munster for me are clear favourites - playing very well early doors already. I dont see Saracens qualify on the basis this group will take points off each other.

Fixture list is almost as important as the draw itself. Leicester have a stinker. They have no chance in the opening game. I expect Ospreys to beat Treviso (just) at home first round. That basically sets up round two for a must win Leicester vs Ospreys home clash which the English side cant afford to lose. Much has been made of the Ospreys rubbish start of the season but Friday night showed that their tight 5 will be a match for anything out there (even without P. James). I actually think Leicester will end up losing this game.

Exeter have probably been the unluckiest side alive. Round 2 exit as it just dont get tougher than Leinster & Clermont first up.

Other than Harelquins I really dont see where an English QF will come from this year. Dont feel bad though because thats still one more than us Welsh. Ospreys represent our best chance and thats been ruined by another tough pool draw. After watching Scarlets the tight 5 struggled again badly. I think every team in Europe will be looking at that Ospreys win and targeting them upfront to stop them getting possesion. Adriaanse better be one hell of a tighthead!!!

Basically its probably looking like this in the Qtrs
3 Irish
3 French
1 Scottish
1 English

I'd prefer to play Toulouse first up, just a chance you might catch them cold, Gloucester nearly did it last year if memory serves. But agree Tigers will probably get nothing from that game.

by **profitius** Mon 24 Sep 2012, 5:05 pm

I think Edinburgh don't get enough credit for last season. They didn't have the hardest of groups but they still got through and were unlucky against Ulster in the 1/4 final. The Ulster scrum was the big difference between the teams. Edinburgh have added to their squad this season and will be hard to beat.

Ulster vs Northampton is also a good encounter to look forward to. Ulster have started well and have Bowe, Best, Tuohy, Wilson, Pienaar and Wallace to come back. Northampton have also started the season well.

Leinster Clermont is the big encounter. I fancy Clermont this time because Leinster have a few injuries. Sean O'Brien (along with Healy) is their best forward and he is out injured.

by Morgannwg Mon 24 Sep 2012, 5:26 pm

How long are those guys out for profitius?

And yes I also agree that Edinburgh are capable of doing well. But I also get the feeling they'll ship a lot of point away from home, perhaps at Munster.

by Pot Hale Mon 24 Sep 2012, 5:50 pm

Morgannwg wrote:How long are those guys out for profitius?

And yes I also agree that Edinburgh are capable of doing well. But I also get the feeling they'll ship a lot of point away from home, perhaps at Munster.

O'Brien is likely out until New Year. Ditto Fitzgerald - who did a lot for the team in the pool stages. Not sure about McFadden's return.

Cullen ain't getting any younger, and I'm not sure they'll have their best second row combo worked out in time. Darcy went down injured again in last week's match - if they cotton wool him, he'll be no use in the tough matches.

McLaughlin is becoming a danger to the team - he's a penalty magnet and likely to attract sin bins as well.

I reckon Clermont are going to do a number on Leinster this year - home and away. And Scarlets aren't too shabby either. The timing of matches this season is definitely going to be critical. But I reckon that by the New Year, it'll be too late for Leinster.

Leicester could disappoint, but they have the same kind of mettle as Munster and could come through.

I reckon one team in the quarters for Ireland and my money at the moment is on Munster.

Mind you, it would give an interesting twist, in the context of the HC discussions if English and French teams dominate the knockout stages this season.

'Pro 12 teams have it easy? Don't know what you're talking about Mark - have you seen the quarter-final line-up? We think it should be the bottom four in the AP that should qualify actually.....'

by HammerofThunor Mon 24 Sep 2012, 7:18 pm

Pot, then it would be "The HEC should be made up of the best teams, PRO12 did badly so they should only have 4 teams". You know the score

by SecretFly Mon 24 Sep 2012, 7:59 pm

Come, come.... we all know what the score will be if there is a French English final Wink

"This is what it's all about - this is the world's greatest club event bar none - this is history and passion, and memories of Great Heineken Cup players like Martin Johnson, Vincent Clerk, Poitrenaud and Tim Stimpson. The greatest players from the two great and historic European leagues will collide today in blood, sweat, skill and controlled violence. Heartache and Glory is what's up for discussion today - no room for boys. No quarter will be given on this day as the Heineken Cup once again becomes something meaningful, as it resumes its acquaintance with the clubs that first nourished it. This is the pinnacle of these player's careers, mate, of that have no doubt. This is the Heineken Cup Final, France verses England - Exeter Chiefs verses Toulon. The age of the Heineken Cup classics it with us again."

IRFU Head: "Can we re-negotiate this here contest?"

Crickets..................................................................

by maestegmafia Mon 24 Sep 2012, 8:16 pm

It says it all really Secret Fly...!

Poor performance breeds discontent. Constant poor performance and the competition is at fault, not the truth that the competition is just better.

You don't hear the Welsh regions saying the competition is unfair and bar the three semi finals we have little successes. We admit we are not good enough and try to improve.

Just like our Irish and Scottish counterparts.

by Pot Hale Mon 24 Sep 2012, 8:38 pm

maestegmafia wrote:It says it all really Secret Fly...!

Poor performance breeds discontent. Constant poor performance and the competition is at fault, not the truth that the competition is just better.

You don't hear the Welsh regions saying the competition is unfair and bar the three semi finals we have little successes. We admit we are not good enough and try to improve.

Just like our Irish and Scottish counterparts.

Eh? Waddya mean like our Scottish counterparts? Edinburgh had a semi last season - I'll have you know. They've been smiling ever since.....

by Feckless Rogue Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:15 pm

I'm glad Leinster have Clermont in their pool.

Our two knockout games in 2009/2010 and 2011/2012 were far to close for comfort. But when we were in a tough pool with Clermont in 2010/2011 we topped it comfortably. We've been better than them at going and getting results away from home against the weaker sides. So I think they could drop points away to Scarlets whereas we can win in Wales. That means a home win and away defeat against Clermont should be enough to top the group. Hopefully.

The injuries will obviously count against us. But we can deal better with injuries than most. We have a strong squad and our replacements tend to slot in seamlessly to the side because they get plenty of game time in the league, playing the same attacking style as the "star" players.

by Irish Londoner Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:25 pm

"Edinburgh had a semi last season - I'll have you know. They've been smiling ever since....." touch of the Finnbarr Saunders
1 - Munster but hard to call
2 - Tolouse
3 - Quins
4 - Ulster
5 - Leinster
6 - Toulon

Wouldn't be surprised to see Tigers and maybe Saints sneak the other places.

by maestegmafia Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:36 pm

I know Edinburgh had a semi final spot last year. Like Wales and Ireland we have all tried to raise our game to meet the might of the franglo clubs

by gelodge Mon 24 Sep 2012, 9:51 pm

maestegmafia wrote:It says it all really Secret Fly...!

Poor performance breeds discontent. Constant poor performance and the competition is at fault, not the truth that the competition is just better.

You don't hear the Welsh regions saying the competition is unfair and bar the three semi finals we have little successes. We admit we are not good enough and try to improve.

Just like our Irish and Scottish counterparts.

It's a bit naive to think the current posturing from France & England is about anything but money. They and everyone else knows that none of the proposed alterations to the Heineken Cup would make any difference to the qualification of the Irish sides that have been winning it.

by Pot Hale Mon 24 Sep 2012, 10:11 pm

HammerofThunor wrote:Pot, then it would be "The HEC should be made up of the best teams, PRO12 did badly so they should only have 4 teams". You know the score

Indeed hammer.

by TJ1 Mon 24 Sep 2012, 10:38 pm

My point merely was do not underestimate Edinburgh a better team than last year with more depth in the squad. Worthy semi finalists last year and scored a lot of tries.

there is no way that the group is between munster adn Sarries. it will be tight with all teams taking points off each oth rand the best losers will not come from this group so expect a fight - but away wins is what will count inteh end and I simply do not see Sarries getting the away wins. I think it will come down to who can win the Munster / Edinburgh games as to who will go thru

by maestegmafia Mon 24 Sep 2012, 10:52 pm

gelodge wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:It says it all really Secret Fly...!

Poor performance breeds discontent. Constant poor performance and the competition is at fault, not the truth that the competition is just better.

You don't hear the Welsh regions saying the competition is unfair and bar the three semi finals we have little successes. We admit we are not good enough and try to improve.

Just like our Irish and Scottish counterparts.

It's a bit naive to think the current posturing from France & England is about anything but money. They and everyone else knows that none of the proposed alterations to the Heineken Cup would make any difference to the qualification of the Irish sides that have been winning it.

I'm not sure how many times this canbe repeated in the colourful variety of ways. There are still adamant protesters that claim England and France make it a competition...! When it is actually Ireland and France that do all the winning.

by gelodge Mon 24 Sep 2012, 11:05 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
gelodge wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:It says it all really Secret Fly...!

Poor performance breeds discontent. Constant poor performance and the competition is at fault, not the truth that the competition is just better.

You don't hear the Welsh regions saying the competition is unfair and bar the three semi finals we have little successes. We admit we are not good enough and try to improve.

Just like our Irish and Scottish counterparts.

It's a bit naive to think the current posturing from France & England is about anything but money. They and everyone else knows that none of the proposed alterations to the Heineken Cup would make any difference to the qualification of the Irish sides that have been winning it.

I'm not sure how many times this canbe repeated in the colourful variety of ways. There are still adamant protesters that claim England and France make it a competition...! When it is actually Ireland and France that do all the winning.

Since when did France do all the winning, they and England have only won twice each in the last decade. The rest has all been Ireland. I'll give you that both France's & England's records as runners up is almost unparalleled though!

by KickAndChase Mon 24 Sep 2012, 11:20 pm

Glad this thread climbed back up from the trough of off-topic bickering for the best of 3 pages ..! Have we ever seen a HC winner that didn't deserve the overall trophy ? Not really. You have to beat the best to win, one way or another.

On pool 1, let's remember Edinburgh's results last year - they beat Racing Metro by a single point in BOTH of their matches. Their away fixture involved a last minute Phil "oh my good"Godman drop goal just to show how unbelievable the whole story was really. They topped their pool on the final day after registering a 4th try against London Irish at home with , what , 2 minutes to go? The initial fixture, away to Irish, I believe was also won by a score. They topped the pool because Cardiff failed to register a 4th try at home to Racing that day ... Cardiff had beaten Edinburgh on the double by 5 points to 4.

They then showed good mettle against a Toulouse team who, in all fairness, had disappointed, especially away, in the pool stages, losing to Gloucester on the final day.

Edinburgh's run was spectacular given their form in the PRO12, and they were / are a good side for knock out rugby. But let's remember that a lot of their success last year was based on partly good composure but partly everything going right at the right time. Whether created by themselves or not, it's going to be even tougher this year to repeat that against Munster, Saracens and Racing Metro again.

Their saving grace is they have potentially the easiest fixture they will get in their entire pool - Saracens at home. Maybe RM at home would be arguably that little easier, but neither is easy. If they lose on day 1 it's honestly lights out.

I don't expect Edinburgh to necessarily even come second, let alone win their group. BUT winning is as much of a possibility this year as it appeared last year (the group last year was weaker but this year their squad is better and they have belief - although that can be dangerous for a Scottish side).

I do hope that group 1 proves to be as exciting as it looks.

On another note, I don't see why so many people are naysaying Leicester. They have a good squad and they're always there or thereabouts. Underestimate them at your peril, even against Toulouse away.

Also, Harlequins were head and shoulders above the other AP teams at the time they lost to Connacht last year ... it was a surprise and nothing should be taken away from Connacht for it. Quins were lucky to still make the quarters from it.

For what it's worth:

Pool 1 - Munster
Pool 2 - Toulouse
Pool 3 - Biarritz
Pool 4 - Ulster
Pool 5 - ASM
Pool 6 - Toulon
(7 - Harlequins)
(8 - Northampton)

[Leinster, Racing & Leicester to Challenge Cup. Cardiff only runners up to get nada.]

by ChequeredJersey Mon 24 Sep 2012, 11:27 pm

We didn't make the Quarters. We were knocked out. And it was after our momentum was well and truly killed by losing to Sarries at "home".

However, Connacht did a great job to keep their compusure whilst ours was non existent and save Toulouse's hides

by ChequeredJersey Mon 24 Sep 2012, 11:28 pm

God we played awfully in that awful awful match

by ChequeredJersey Mon 24 Sep 2012, 11:29 pm

But I'll bet it doesn't happen again

by KickAndChase Mon 24 Sep 2012, 11:36 pm

ChequeredJersey wrote:We didn't make the Quarters. We were knocked out. And it was after our momentum was well and truly killed by losing to Sarries at "home".

However, Connacht did a great job to keep their compusure whilst ours was non existent and save Toulouse's hides

My bad , I remember now. TOULOUSE were lucky to make it , because they only did it by virtue of Quins also losing their match.

Which makes my Edinburgh argument even stronger, ta Wink

by UlstermaninGlasgow Tue 25 Sep 2012, 12:06 am

I'm surprised to see a lot of people writing off Ulster already. They will be no slouches this year again and the one weapon Saints had against us before (set pieces) is now one of our biggest strengths. It also helps when you have a 10 who can tackle...

Also I think I'd worry about Edinburgh in that Pool 1... They look smart, didn't give up last week against Leinster and have definitely improved their squad. With the way Sarries are playing and having already beaten RM before I reckon the Munster - Edinburgh games could be brilliant!

One last word about Glasgow - I think they might cause a few problems for Ulster but if Saints come up to Scotstoun expecting an easy ride they may be in for a big surprise... I think the new additions to the team, combined with DTH being in magic form may make them a tough proposition, home or away! Not many teams can claim to have beaten the Ospreys twice in one year, Leinster certainly can't!

by Kingshu Tue 25 Sep 2012, 8:52 am

Don't think anyone is writting Ulster of UMIG.

I'm looking forward to the Ulster Saints games the most.

We have come on a long way since that Q final, but I'm not so sure Saints have.

However both unbeaten so far this season, and both looking good should be a good group.
Ulster 3 wins v Glasgow, Ospreys and Munster, 3 of the 4 playoff teams from last year, to get 3 wins against those teams is very good in anyones book.
Saints 4 wins v Worcester, Bath, Exeter, Gloucester, not maybe the same class, but still very good.

I actually think Ulster are a (small) cut above the other teams in this group, and Saints, Glasgow and Castres are all about the same level.

If Ulster show that class they should top this group, if not it could be very tough, any of the other 3 could finish second.

Glasgow I don't think will win it, but have potentional to come 2nd in the group, are a very tough team, home and away, and I'd say the same for Castres.

Overall I'm expecting it to be a close group.

by brennomac Tue 25 Sep 2012, 9:38 am

As a Leinster fan am seriously worried about the HC this year as we have problems in some key positions.

Second row is one big problem area - Cullen is rapidly declining, Toner is still a beanpole great in lineouts but not a lot of use anywhere else and then we have Browne - ok in games against weaker Rabo teams but out of his depth in the HC, Roux and Denton (both unproven quantities).

Scrum half in another weaker area - Reddan only looks good occasionally because he is playing behind a dominant pack, Boss can't get a game. Cooney though looks to have potential and a run of games because of others' injuries should benefit him a lot.

Add in O'Brien and Fitzgerald with long-term injuries, our dependence on Ross staying fit at TH and we are a weaker forcer than we were last year.

Yes, we have a good squad with Conway, Macken, Carr, Coghlan etc - not to mention Madigan for whom a place has to be found in the starting lineup.

Once again, the Clermont back to back games will be key even if we win the first two games against Exeter and the Scarlets (9pts from these two games has to be the minimum if we are to qualify for knockouts). If we get LBP away and beat Clermont home with no BP then we will be in decent position, but I have worries about the home game v Clermont in Lansdowne.

Hope I'm wrong and the pessimism is not justified but I think Clermont will win this group and then it'll be down to getting enough points for a best runnder-up slot and an away QF

by red_stag Tue 25 Sep 2012, 9:44 am

What odds would you get for zero Irish teams in the quarter finals.

by SecretFly Tue 25 Sep 2012, 9:59 am

The world doesn't owe Leinster a living.... and it certainly won't be offering an easy ride into a 4th victory. That truth in itself (being in line for 4 titles/3 in a row) will make this an exceptionally tough year. History suggests sustaining a run of this nature is not easy - if it was there'd be no big deal about what Leinster are chasing.

So this will be a big hurdle for them. But if they can struggle through their issues (and Brennomac alluded to some of them) and manage to drag themselves into a runner-up slot and an away QF, I think Joe and the boys will be re-energised by the squeaky route and perhaps begin to feel the call of destiny.

But getting that far will be the battle - Yes, Clermont should, if they believe in themselves at all, be an even bigger challenge this year than last. But really, you couldn't predict from which pool the winner will eventually come. Who predicted Edinburgh?

by brennomac Tue 25 Sep 2012, 9:59 am

Stag, not sure about the odds but think there will be at least one - Munster or Ulster more likely than Leinster - but a lot will come down to LBP etc. Two teams came out of Leinster/Clermont group last year (I think) so am not ruling out Leinster but it's going to be hard and a huge improvement is needed.

by red_stag Tue 25 Sep 2012, 10:12 am

Stranger things have happened.

Munster have a tough group - Edinburgh and Racing away will be hard for any team and Saracens have real ability.

Ulster have on paper a decent group and it comes down to a bunfight with Northampton. But they have never won in France and I fear the death of Nevin Spence could understandably have an effect on their playing ability.

Leinster have a very tough group. Cleromont, Scarlets and Exeter. I dont see two teams coming out of it.

By the same token we could see 3 Irish teams.

by SecretFly Tue 25 Sep 2012, 10:35 am

I wouldn't want to predict anything. But if Penney is in tune with Munster philosophy and doesn't race them too heavily into his new rapid and expansive ways before Christmas (ie, he doesn't waste too much energy proving the new way works) then I could see Munster perhaps having less of a clear fire run through the pools this season but very much more prepared for the closing stages if they get through to them. I think Munster will need two versions of itself - the old and the new. Use each wisely and they could be a bamboozling cocktail for the opposition.

It's nervy stuff, but an exciting prospect. It would be wonderful to see three Irish faces in the play-offs again (well, for us Irish, that is Whistle

)

by red_stag Tue 25 Sep 2012, 10:37 am

Making the most of it while we still have ERC Rugby as we know it.

It will be interesting to see how Munster play when Paul O'Connell, Donnacha Ryan, Peter O'Mahony and CJ Stander are added to the team.

by Rava Tue 25 Sep 2012, 10:52 am

red_stag wrote:Stranger things have happened.

Munster have a tough group - Edinburgh and Racing away will be hard for any team and Saracens have real ability.

Ulster have on paper a decent group and it comes down to a bunfight with Northampton. But they have never won in France and I fear the death of Nevin Spence could understandably have an effect on their playing ability.

Leinster have a very tough group. Cleromont, Scarlets and Exeter. I dont see two teams coming out of it.

By the same token we could see 3 Irish teams.

How could Spence's death affect their ability? It might affect their mental preparations. Mind you these events do tend to have a more positive than negative effect.
I would also say that our pre-season win on French soil, albeit a friendly will have given the squad a massive lift.
That said, I agree the group could be between Ulster and Saints, with Glasgow awaiting to pounce if either trip up.

by red_stag Tue 25 Sep 2012, 10:54 am

Apologies Rava thats what I meant of course. I really dont want to cause offence to anyone when I mention that. There is no doubt that they will be a closer team - but it will have halted their early season momentum and may affect how their start the pool.

by SecretFly Tue 25 Sep 2012, 10:54 am

red_stag wrote:Making the most of it while we still have ERC Rugby as we know it.

It will be interesting to see how Munster play when Paul O'Connell, Donnacha Ryan, Peter O'Mahony and CJ Stander are added to the team.

That's kind my point, Stag. They have another version still in their pocket and they shouldn't just drop everything just yet to chase after a new way. Use what's effective against the sides it can be effective against. It might be fantasy but I'd even love them to surprise a side with two halves of completely different rugby. They're still close enough to their pre-Penney identity to use the opposition's pre-conceived notions a little and play with that.

Anyway, this is all predicated on them continuing develop along the path that they are hinting at. Too early for fantasy.... but not for hope.

by red_stag Tue 25 Sep 2012, 10:57 am

I think that Ryan, O'Mahony and Stander will be able to slot in no problem with what Penney does. O'Connell will find it very tough.

I have no doubt in my mind that they will continue along the same path which has its pros and cons.

by SecretFly Tue 25 Sep 2012, 11:00 am

Yeah...that's the weakness of Paul (if he has one)..and it'll probably become more and more an issue with Ireland too. He just isn't the type for the version of rugby that has hit our shores at Provincial level. His body and mind has been conditioned for something else and you're right, he'll find it difficult. The other guys, yep, they won't have a problem.

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