Heineken Cup Thread

[Morgannwg]

First topic message reminder :

I'm quite looking forward to this years competition so wanted to get a discussion on it going. This years pools look to be the toughest yet; but some said that last year only for Leinster to be the best team from day one through to the final.

Pool 1
Edinburgh
Munster
Racing Metro
Saracens

This may possibly be the toughest group to decide. Much to the disgust of Beshocked, I will predict Munster to pull through and claim top spot. They are not quite on the wane yet. They've made some intelligent signings and promoted from within the Province. The matchday squad for the H-cup will be some force IMO and their ability to play smart rugby, determined rugby and ability to win away from home is why they get my vote (they will probably be the only ones capable of a double against the gunners).

Pool 2
Benetton Treviso
Leicester Tigers
Ospreys
Toulouse

Well things are looking bleak for the Ospreys again. Drew with Treviso away from home in last seasons competition, lost to them this season and are still unable to score tries. Tigers are improving but are not a good H-cup team yet and the Italians will make progression tough for them, so I believe four-time winners Toulouse will top the group.

Pool 3
Biarritz Olypique Pays Basque
Connacht
Harlequins
Zebre

Connacht should be targetting 3 wins as their aim, that's 2 against Zebre and 1 against the English team they beat in last years competition. Quins should be aiming to top the group. But I can not for life of anyone see past Biarritz topping the group (probably being the number 1 seed by the end of the pool stages aswell). In the past few years they have really gone out and punished the weak teams, I predict them to get 20 points from the Connacht/Zebre fixtures and 4-6 points from the matches against Harlequins. Quins are good but Biarritz might revert to some 10 man rugby which will be enough to beat the English champions. The Harlequins may still make the final 8.

Pool 4
Castres Olympique
Glasgow Warriors
Northampton Saints
Ulster

Another very tough one to call here. I don't know much about Castres this season but I get the feeling they're just another unimpressive French outfit with a big budget. They're capable of some big wins at home but won't win the pool. Glasgow were good but changed coaches, which was the decision of the SRU I believe, and have since gone backwards instead of trying to develop their improvement further. Saints are good, but overhyped and not good enough to top this pool. I think Ulster will be the only ones progressing from this group. They are also an improved team, completely outdone in last years final but no doubt learnt a harsh lesson about mixing in with big teams of Europe.

Pool 5
ASM Clermont Auvergne
Exeter Chiefs
Leinster Rugby
Scarlets

Exeter will get a tough introduction to Heineken Cup rugby in this group. I do rate them highly and they are capable of causing upsets, BUT, I think despite how good they've been on the scene they will be whipping boys. Leinster and ASM will give them a harsh introduction to H-cup rugby, a very harsh one. I feel sorry for the Scarlets. Just as they look to be getting a settled team by sorting out their areas of weakness they get grouped with the current european champions and the top French team; also with these a stubborn Exeter Chiefs targetting both of their fixtures in Parc-y and Sandy. I'm going to back the Scarlets to beat Leinster and Clermont once each though. This year I predict Clermont to finally get the upper hand on Leinster and top the group. Leinster have the ability to get enough points, some way or another, enough that will see them still make the top 8.

Pool 6
Cardiff Blues
Montpellier
Sale Sharks
Toulon

Well this is an uninspiring group but here goes. Toulon are the strongest team and will top the group. Montpellier are unknown to me, 'whocares' could shed some light on the French. Cardiff and Sale are rubbish. Blues in particular look very weak up front. Could they turn it around in time with the signings they have made or will they keep hold of average, under-performing players... I wouldn't put it past them doing the double on either Sale or Montpellier though.



Final 8
This isn't in order of points difference as I can't call that, apart from the brackets.
Biarritz (top seeds)
Munster
Toulouse
Ulster
ASM
Toulon
Harlequins (best runners up)
Leinster (best runners up)

There's then the Amlin drop down. Scarlets might get there with their ability to score tries. Looking at this years pools though it's hard to see where teams will win away from home and pick up bonus points. Really tough to call but interested to hear what everyone else is thinking.

[red_stag]

Another big factor is that he is not going to have had the preseason and early games to find his feet and work out his role in the system.

He wont be back for ages due to injury and will be expected to come in and stand out in a team who are fluid and well gelled.

[Sin é]

According to the Examiner today, its unlikely POC will be back for the Racing game.

The knee is ok, its some lower back problems. Says nothing to worry about. Thankfully there is no need to rush him back semi-fit.

I can imagine Munster surprising Racing by keeping it very tight. Mannix will know all their strengths & weaknesses very well, so I suspect the tactics will be spot on.

I expect this Munster team to get a bit of a hiding shortly (hopefully in the Rabo & not HCup) - they will be all the better for it too.

[SecretFly]

That's when they might have to (if he is part of the team mix-up, and is considered essential) fall back on a more traditional game... or at least break up games to let him merge and then be replaced or have the game adapt to him when he comes on. I don't know...it'll need thinking on that's for sure. But Munster can still win playing a game more suited to Paul, it's just deciding what teams it might make more of an impression on.

[Sin é]

Another big factor is that he is not going to have had the preseason and early games to find his feet and work out his role in the system.

He wont be back for ages due to injury and will be expected to come in and stand out in a team who are fluid and well gelled.

I don't know about him being able to adopt his game - a lot of people have written DOC off and look at him now. POC is fiercely competitive and I'd say he will adopt.

[SecretFly]

His leg speed would always be an issue though, Sin é, when forwards are now asked to contribute to incisive back play.

Well, he might very well surprise us but I think it's a stetch for him to adapt atthis point in his career.

[red_stag]

I expect this Munster team to get a bit of a hiding shortly (hopefully in the Rabo & not HCup) - they will be all the better for it too.

I agree. Hopefully it will be against Ospreys and then we beat Leinster, Racing and Edinburgh!!

[Rava]

Stag, no offence taken. It's a valid topic for discussion and one that will be subject to debate certainly in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully any issues the players might have will be sorted before the HC games begin.

[SecretFly]

BTW..................... maybe I'm just missing him everytime (I do sometimes simply turn off after the game itself as I have things to do) but even so, I think I've hung around long enough before and after some games and I don't think I've heard Penney talking pre or post match all season?

Is that just me? Rarely see him pictured during games either come to think of it. Is he keeping a very low profile or have I just stepped between the raindrops miraculously since the Pro12 began?

[Jenifer McLadyboy]

I expect this Munster team to get a bit of a hiding shortly (hopefully in the Rabo & not HCup) - they will be all the better for it too.

I agree. Hopefully it will be against Ospreys and then we beat Leinster, Racing and Edinburgh!!

Ah no, You can beat the Ospreys, that's fine, just not taking Leinster's unbeaten run in New Lansdowne rd away. 7 games on the trot. Not throwing it away against Munster. They can't be allowed to be the ones.

[the-goon]

Making the most of it while we still have ERC Rugby as we know it.

It will be interesting to see how Munster play when Paul O'Connell, Donnacha Ryan, Peter O'Mahony and CJ Stander are added to the team.

My guess would pretty damn well, that is a monster back 5!! Add that to the solid front row and the exciting backs you have and Munster really are a team to be feared again.

[Kingshu]

I don't think Ulster will lose to much momentum because of the events of the last few weeks.

Ok they have had a week out, and it will take players different times to come to terms with it all, but it will have brought them closer as a unit. They
know they are in the results business, Cardiff Blues won't be trying less hard at the weekend to beat them because of it, they are professionals and have a job to do, and it will make them more determined to win then before.

That said as well as being professionals they are all also human (even the machine Ferris) it is very personal as well, and Anscombe's man management will be a big factor here, if someone can't focas an dneeds more time, its up to Anscombe to handle that. Personally I see that they will all be back focased on the job, and be more determined than before.

[Sin é]

BTW..................... maybe I'm just missing him everytime (I do sometimes simply turn off after the game itself as I have things to do) but even so, I think I've hung around long enough before and after some games and I don't think I've heard Penney talking pre or post match all season?

Is that just me? Rarely see him pictured during games either come to think of it. Is he keeping a very low profile or have I just stepped between the raindrops miraculously since the Pro12 began?

He has a lot to say, thats probably why they don't let him on camera

Comments after last week's game:

Challenging Times Ahead.
24 September 2012, 11:56 am
By The Editor

Speaking at the post match press conference Rob Penney cut a relaxed figure as he reflected back on the game and looked forward to the busy weeks ahead.

Asked first of all about the changes (9) and how it impacted on performance he said. I think great credit's due to the guys that came in. Y'know when you make that many changes, some forced, some because we need to give guys a run, you can have a lot of issues with your continuity. But as I said great credit to those that came in. They'd done their homework, they slotted in quite seamlessly which was great.

Then, asked to judge that performance given it was a side third from bottom he continued, We can only play what's put against us. By no means were we perfect. We again probably left some points out on the track. They breached us a couple of times. I think it showed the character of the group - - and people always talk about the character of the Munster group  when we were breached and they had to rush back and help their mates on defence. That sort of work, that selfless work was being done often when those breaches occurred. They gave us some challenges on attack and we made some opportunities and didn't finish them. As I said we weren't perfect.

As is always the case, individual performances were raised and specifically that of Man of the Match Keith Earls. It was terrific. I thought it took a lot of courage for him to make that first pass of the day, under a lot of pressure and had to throw up pretty blind really.

 And it's something we worked on during the week given the defensive structures that the Dragons present. That really set the tone for the evening. It was on the back of a really good set-piece. That pass from centre to Zebs was a terrific pass and it got us under way.

"I think the beauty about Keith is his durability and his versatility." Penney continued. " He's a tough robust bloke. He's very athletic and he's very skilful. I think he's a marvellous 13, he can also play inside centre I think and he's obviously proven on the wing.

"And he could probably play full back too if we wanted him too. He'll get the opportunity right at the start to play 13 and he'll get opportunities elsewhere and it just depends on what's in the best interests of the team.

And when Ian Keatley's performance was described as 'solid' his response was. Yeh, well to be fair, I thought he was better than solid. One or two little errors. He's a tremendous attacking threat. His handling, I think, it was in relation to the second try was superb. Really helped set that up by giving a great pass and then staying in support. Really happy with Ian the way he went at full back. Gives us another option to broaden our base in a number of positions which is as I said before is critical.

It all makes for a selection heading among the backs ? We've a number of positions that are challenging for us. He said.  We lost a guy like James Coughlan last week and then Paddy Butler, a young man, comes in and was terrific tonight. Niall Ronan's first game back after Sean Dougall's done a fantastic job for us at seven and Niall has a steamer.

"So there's a number of positions. I won't even try to talk about the front row selectorially because there's so many good people there. So yep loads of options to consider.

Everyone's putting pressure on for a starting spot and we still got some firepower to come back. It's really about the depth of probably your players 30 to 35/36 that can get you through to silverware contention. Because nobody can play 35 games in a programme  maybe 40 for some guys if they played a lot of internationals, if they played everything - and expect to be firing on all cylinders at the end. So the depth of the squad is critical.

Asked about Munster's style of play he replied. They have to play in a way that reflects their personalities and their love for the game. What drew them to the game in the first place was running with the ball and the physical contact. That what so special about rugby they very much got a licence to express themselves and the whole management group are chuffed the way they're exhibiting their skills.

"Because it's great to watch for us. Heart in the mouth stuff at times," he admits with a grin. "But it's quite awe inspiring. Its wonderful

When asked about the fact that Munster ended the game on Saturday with 11 players in their early 20s, his response was.  It's a good sign. But I think we just got to keep a lid on things a little bit. It's very early days and these guys are doing a terrific job. We just have to keep our feet on the ground and make sure that we work hard on the early part of next week to try keep the growth in the group going.

And with trips to Swansea, Dublin and Paris looming ? "Yep it's going to be a challenging three weeks. A massive three weeks for us.Our ability to play away from home I think is without question given that we were able to compete and did well in Edinburgh and competed well without a result in Belfast.
"I think the group have got their head around the fact that it's the same size pitch no matter where you go. It'll be a good challenge for us. I don't know what the outcomes of those challenges will be. We'll just play one game at a time and keep trying to build on what we're started to create."

He agreed with the suggestion that the time is ripe to see a settled side. " Yes, it is time to get a settled group together heading into ERC. But we'll have to see who backs up with knocks and who is back in contention again next week."

 "There'll be some interesting discussion . There'll be some disappointed people and there'll be some who are rapt. But as I said before, we just have to keep everyone inspired and motivated to do well. At the end of the day we're all working for the one end and that's to make this team as successful as we can.

[Kingshu]

Is it good to be playing Ian Keatley at fullback?

We've said before that moving players around, sometimes doesn't help them reach their full potential is their best position.

Personally though I think it is worth doing in Keatleys case, gives an option if he's on the bench to cover more positions, and if ROG comes on, he could move to fullback, however I don't think it would be worth taking off a full back to move keatley there and bring ROG on, ust swap RoG for keatley, and I'd rather not have RoG start and have keatley on the bench.

[Sin é]

No harm. It used work very well with Warwick there (though I think Keatley is a better defender than Warwick). And JJ will be snapping at Keatley's heels shortly as well.

It just means that Earls won't always be the one to be moved to cover injuries and maybe give him some gametime in big games without having too much pressure on him.

[red_stag]

I think its a good thing for Keatley and Munster.

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