Scotland in the AIs

Interesting piece in the Herald today, with likely starting team:

Good crop, bad crop: autumn harvest of injuries for Robinson

by Alasdair Reid, Rugby reporter

The teams are barely out of the starting blocks, but already the pace of the season is cranking up. Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS
Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS

Within a couple of weeks, the genteel trot of the Rabo-Direct PRO12 will have changed to the lusty canter of the Heineken Cup. And after that, it really begins to get serious.

Time was when autumn internationals were a welcome distraction from the grind of the domestic season and a chance for some gin-soaked old duffers to say hello to their mates from the colonies. After that, they became a useful tool for swelling the coffers of the home Unions, struggling with the new financial reality of rugby as a professional game. Now, though, their significance is even greater.

For if rugby's international calendar looks like a marathon at times, the November Test period now marks the point when the race becomes a sprint. At stake are world rankings places that will determine the seeding bands for the 2015 World Cup. Get into the top four and you're laughing. Five to eight and you're still comfortable. Anything lower than eighth and you can start to panic.

Scotland are currently ninth. That represents considerable progress – courtesy of three wins on their recent Australasia tour – on the 12th slot, their lowest ever, occupied after this year's Six Nations whitewash, but the law of diminishing returns kicks in fiercely the higher up that ladder you go.

The next step, the one that will have the most critical bearing on their prospects in 2015, is the hardest of all. The rankings are calculated using a formula of mind-addling complexity. And if you can get your head round the principles behind the sums, you have to do them over and over again to allow for all sorts of results, in all sorts of places, by all sorts of margins. It is a job for the very smart or the very sad.

It is probably best not to speculate which category Scotland coach Andy Robinson falls into (he was a maths teacher in a previous life so we can probably take the charitable view) but the scenario will unquestionably occupy his attention over the weeks ahead.

To achieve a top-eight slot, Scotland will almost certainly have to enjoy a solid November series, probably two wins, or possibly a win and a draw, from their games against New Zealand, South Africa and Tonga. At the same time, they will be praying that Ireland and Argentina, seventh and eighth respectively, endure autumns of unremitting misery.

Robinson is likely to name his squad early in the week beginning October 21, with a squad-gathering in St Andrews the week after. So how do the runners and riders shape up? When Robinson's side returned from Australasia three months ago with a trio of wins under their belts, and a host of new players having proven their Test worth, it was a task he would have relished. But things have changed since – and not many for the better.

Let's start with the serious stuff. Since the squad came back, Chris Cusiter, Joe Ansbro and Rob Harley have all been ruled out of autumn matches by long-term injuries. All are front-rank players, although none would be considered a certain start for any or all of the games. Meanwhile, Glasgow props Jon Welsh and Ed Kalman, both of whom gained first caps during the Six Nations, have injuries that mean they will play no part in the forthcoming Tests.

Such things can be expected, and Robinson has been around the Test scene long enough to know it. He also has enough miles on his clock to appreciate that one player's injury is another's golden opportunity. If the conveyor belt of talent is running smoothly the understudies should be ready to step into the gaps. Unfortunately for Scotland, though, its gears have been grinding just lately. Yes, this has been a time of plenty in some positions, but a dearth in other areas.

Take Cusiter's scrum-half berth, for instance. A signature position for Scotland, the country has rarely been short of nippy little blokes who can do the business around the base of the scrum, but with the exception of Greig Laidlaw, now converted to a fly-half, none has really emerged in the past six years. Cusiter, Mike Blair and Rory Lawson have been scrapping over the jersey, and no one has broken into their circle. All very well, but the three are all now north of 30 (surprisingly, Lawson, often seen as the junior member of the group, is the oldest). To complicate matters further, Blair and Lawson both play second-division rugby: Blair in France with Brive, Lawson with England's Newcastle. To complicate the complication, Blair's outings have been limited by a shoulder injury.

Indeed, when not brushing up their language skills, most of Scotland's French contingent have been deepening their knowledge of medical facilities across the channel. Max Evans and Euan Murray have also been struggling recently, as has Johnnie Beattie, whose plan to reignite his career at Montpellier lasted only until he picked up a thigh injury in a pre-season friendly. Alasdair Strokosch, rapidly becoming a cult figure at Perpignan, is the only unqualified success.

Murray can already be ruled out of the first game, against New Zealand, on the basis that it takes place on a Sunday. But things took a turn for the worse when Moray Low picked up what looked like a serious knee injury in Glasgow's win over Zebre on Friday. If Low is ruled out of the November matches then Robinson would have to go pretty far down the pecking order to find another specialist tighthead – or, possibly, consider moving Ryan Grant to the other side of the scrum.

But Robinson has another concern as the autumn programme looms: just how battle-hardened will some of his core players be by the time of that match at Murrayfield on November 11? A number of them – Kelly Brown, Stuart Hogg, Dave Denton and Rory Lamont – could still be said to be in a rehabilitation phase, either just back from injury lay-offs or just about to return. All will be capable of playing by the second weekend in November. But it is still the All Blacks.

Yet there is good news too. While we fret about players being under-prepared, the deepening of the squads at Edinburgh and Glasgow means few of them are likely to be overcooked. And a few lesser lights are starting to show serious form too. Stewart McInally and Grant Gilchrist have been adding some serious grunt to the Edinburgh pack in recent weeks. Tom Ryder and Chris Fusaro have been done the same at Glasgow. Peter Murchie and Henry Pyrgos have looked sharp behind the Warriors' scrum.

So who will be in that team that lines up against the All Blacks?

Barring further injuries, assuming rehab plans continue, and discounting the possibility Robinson will send out a weakened team to protect top players for the Springboks match six days later, you can expect to see something like this: Stuart Hogg; Sean Lamont, Nick De Luca, Matt Scott, Tim Visser; Greig Laidlaw, Rory Lawson. Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Jim Hamilton, Richie Gray, Kelly Brown, Ross Rennie, Dave Denton.

I tell ya, the seasons are only getting tougher, the IRB seriously needs to step in and do something about it.

International teams seldom get to play their first choice XV anymore.

Not sure to what extent that's a "weakened team".

I think that the only two who aren't first choices are Schlong and Rory Lawson, with Murray returning from the sabbath to take the tight head shirt against the Saffers with Grant moving back to loose.

I would understand AR's thinking about Lamont being the only Scots wing (other than his Mighty Timness) physically able to bring down Savea or Gear but it still makes me said, as ultimately it's blunting our creative force again. Tom Brown at 14 would be a much better choice on current form but I don't think that there's any way that Robinson will go for it.

Don't write off the Schlong

I think with MacVisser playing in the team, Schlong will have his fire burning away again. He plays at his best when there is preassure on his spot in the team

Brown played most of the win in Australia so I would hope that would give Robinson some faith in him. But I would go for Max Evans assuming he shakes off this rib injury, which sounds fairly minor from what he's said on twitter. Also Blair has tweeted "should be good for next game" so would expect him to be ahead of Lawson. Other than that the team above looks pretty good, replacement tighthead being the only worry as discussed in the other thread.

Kelly Brown has played at least 3 games now so won't be undercooked at all before the AIs.

My main concern, other than tighthead, is Denton. Haven't seen him since the Blues game and if he doesn't play against Trevisio this weekend then he'll be straight into rough HK games before the AIs.

Hopefully he can play 60 minutes or so on Friday, the 2 HK games and then a rest before the AIs.

Pat_Mustard wrote:Brown played most of the win in Australia so I would hope that would give Robinson some faith in him. But I would go for Max Evans assuming he shakes off this rib injury, which sounds fairly minor from what he's said on twitter. Also Blair has tweeted "should be good for next game" so would expect him to be ahead of Lawson. Other than that the team above looks pretty good, replacement tighthead being the only worry as discussed in the other thread.

Agree with this, I'd include Max Evans and Mike Blair, but otherwise that's the side I'd pick, assuming David Denton and Stuart Hogg find some form ahead of the AIs (otherwise I'd pick McInally and Tonks respectively).

Cross will get crucified v the ABs !

What do you propose as an alternative then schizoid?

C21 don't think Cross will have too many probs against, I presume, Woodcock he's very solid, but not the most destructive scrummager. Fabulous in the loose though, but Cross pretty good himself. If it's the new guy Faumuina I haven't seen enough to comment, but looks a big unit for a LH.

We do not have any RDW and that is the sad bit. Cross was woeful in the RWC and 6Ns. Fact is there are no alternatives unless Robinson goes back to Dickinson

Not that worried about cross. We need dynamic players in the loose against the abs and cross fits the mould. I'd rather have murray to face the beast though.

Yes, the scrum doctor and Grant will do just fine, particularly with big lumps Hamilton and Gray behind them.

I am feeling curiously flat about this first game. I cannot work out what the priority should be. I am still embarrassed about the Currie Ladies Second XV that we put out against the Blackness last time but by the same token, there isn't a team that we can put out that would beat anything approaching a first string AB side so it makes sense to prioritise Seth Efrica whom I actually do believe we can beat if the pack fronts up.

Meh. Blee.

He's got to pick a first team or else seriously fall out with 60000 supports paying a lot of money to watch them.

Plus I know it is a 6 day turnaround but they are professional athletes fit as a fiddle, most of whom will have been rested the week before.

Would really send out a bad message if he doesn't pick our strongest team.

I suspect Robinson will pick what he considers to be a good team - but actually will be crap. He will pick all the big lumbering backs to attempt to smother the ABs thus condemning us to a defeat without Scotland scoring a try.

RDW_Scotland wrote:He's got to pick a first team or else seriously fall out with 60000 supports paying a lot of money to watch them.

Getting 60, 000 into Murrayfield for an Autumn International is probably a more ambitious target than actually beating the All Blacks.

Booked tickets to all 3 but have a feeling that my record against of watching Scotland V New Zealand isn't about to improve. Seen them 3 times now, aggregate score of Scotland 9 - 121 New Zealand

I suppose if Denton doesn’t recover we can play Strokosch at 7 and Brown at 8. No Murray or Welsh is a blow at TH so Cross will have to do. If he gets injured we’re in trouble. If Blair plays 2 or 3 times between now and the game then I can see him starting. I agree with SLamont on the wing for his defensive ability. The question is how will Scott do against presumably Nonu. He can’t count on De Luca’s help as he’ll have his hands full. If Robbo brings Morrison or Lamont into 12 I will go to the airport, buy a ticket home, get a taxi to Murrayfield, sneak into the Scotland box and slap Robbo with a wet kipper that I was able to smuggle past customs.

The team I think he’ll go for

15 Hogg
14 SLamont
13 De Luca
12 Scott
11 Visser
10 Laidlaw
9 Blair

1 Grant
2 Ford
3 Cross
4 Hamilton
5 Gray
6 Brown
7 Rennie
8 Denton

16 SLawson
17 Chunk
18 Kellock
19 Barclay
20 RLawson
21 Weir
22 Evans

Would like to see Dunbar or Grove involved at some point.

you know he will play Morrison and Lamont in the centres to block any threat from the NZ midfeild - thus neatly ensuring Scotland will not score a try

Decent looking team, but I'd quite like to see Tonks get some game time. Looked good for Edinburgh thus far.

indeed - impressed with Tonks.

Perhaps defensively Dunbar and Grove would be better but you lose Scott's creativity and De Luca's partnership with Visser. Currently I'd go for:

15. Hogg
14. Visser
13. Dunbar
12. Scott
11. Lamont
10. Laidlaw
9. Blair
8. Denton
7. Rennie
6. Brown
5. Hamilton
4. Gray
3. Cross
2. Ford
1. Grant

I'd play a game involving short grubbers and high kicks for Lamont and Visser to chase. Wingers coming from blind and on crash balls would be helpful and Scott and Laidlaw can provide a kicking game as can Blair. The back row need to provide go forward and compete at the breakdown. The last time Scotland played the All Blacks they rarely kicked it and expected to break the line with no creativity or field position.

sounds good but I will bet you thats not the raod robinson goes down. It will be Morrison and Probably Lamont inthe centres

TJ wrote:sounds good but I will bet you thats not the raod robinson goes down. It will be Morrison and Probably Lamont inthe centres

Although that would result in a complete lack of creativity and skill, defensively I wouldn't mind it against the ABs, however if he dared play them against anyone else I would be very unhappy.

He has done it befoer and will do again. Scotalnd will not improve while Robinson is coach. He has not got what it takes IMO

TJ wrote:sounds good but I will bet you thats not the raod robinson goes down. It will be Morrison and Probably Lamont inthe centres

On what basis? The fact that you don't like Morrison or Robinson? I don't mind criticism, so long as it's grounded in reality, and isn't just thinly-disguised bigotry.

Scott and De Luca established themselves as the centre pairing of choice this summer, and they've continued in that vein for Edinburgh.

IanBru - on the basis that that is the sort of selections Robinson has mande consistently. Refusing to play inform players but sticking with what he knows.

I agree there are far better centres around but I can see Robinson doing this again.

Its his innate caution - like not even giving Weir any game time - and even dropping him. Like not getting Hogg into the side. You only have to go back to the first six nations game last year to see his disastrous selections England were there for the taking so he ignored all the form players and played the guys he felt comfy with..

its not bigotry its despair at the way he selects teams. I have been a Scotland fan since the 70s

Morrison has been a great servant of the Scotland team - Lamont as well.

'Bigotry' was way too strong a word, and I'm sorry.

You're right that Robinson is overly cautious, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that his selections are totally mindless. He picks what has been shown to work in the past, like Parks, Morrison, Kellock. I'm just saying that a Scott-De Luca pairing is the in-form and incumbent pairing. Neither are injured, and neither are playing badly. When Morrison was picked in the past, there was no established pairing.

I suppose my frustration comes from people taking an irrational, vitriolic, bile-filled dislike to Robinson, Townsend, and even Dodson. I mean, who actually thinks Dodson has done a poor job?

As for the England game... well, they played well, and we didn't. I'm not saying selection wasn't a major factor in the defeat, but if the team we had wanted had played as badly as the team on the pitch, we would still have lost.

I guess I'm just eager to avoid what we normally do as Scotland supporters - go round and round in a cycle of doom, gloom and guessing, so that we're basically convinced we're going to lose before the squad has even been announced. The time before Scotland have kicked a ball is the best time to be a Scotland supporter, so don't you ruin it for me!

GLove39 wrote:Booked tickets to all 3 but have a feeling that my record against of watching Scotland V New Zealand isn't about to improve. Seen them 3 times now, aggregate score of Scotland 9 - 121 New Zealand

To be fair, De Luca has been one of Scotland's best performing defensive centres and Scott has clearly been eating his Weeties in the off season and now looks half a stone heaver than last year. Sharper too.

I have no problems with them as the centre partnership. I would also have Brown instead of Schlong as you might as well have a midfield pairing and wingers that play together week in and week out.

Tonks would be an extremely able deputy for Hogg if he's not quite match fit yet. Edinburgh's best signing recently (along with Willem Nel).

If everything thing goes according to plan this weekend for the ABs, then I think we will see a very similar game plan (well at least for the commencement of the game) against Scotland. The All Blacks must take the Scottish tight forwards out of the equation, and take them out early.

IanBru - its take more than that to offend me.

Perhaps I will be proven wrong but Robinson has a long history of poor conservative election and of selecting defensively not attacking.

the reason we lost the england game was purely down to his selections. We had the attacking players ready to go and in form. He didn't pick them. He picker lessor out of form players and his picking of Parks was inexcusable given the form Laidlaw was in.

Like all scotland fans I veer between hopeless optimism and deep despair!

to go back to the AIs we must win of the three and NZ will be very hard. We need a solid setpiece, and tehn mobile and attacking players and take the game to them. We will not out defend NZ, so lests try to score ourselves. tis beter to be beaten 50 : 20 having tried to take them on than to be beaten 25:3 having only attempted to defend / keep the score down

Anyone seen the new Scotland change strip?

Wow. Just wow.

Yep just seen the top, I actually quite like it.

It looks like something tourists buy from the tack shops on the Royal Mile!

I don't mind it and as a marketing tool I think it will sell especially amongst younger fans. It could have been a lot worse having seen some of canterburys recent designs.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Anyone seen the new Scotland change strip?

Wow. Just wow.

Haha, dont know of you've ever played the newish Lomu Rugby Challange game? Due to licensing restrictions they had to make up the Scotland strips, and the away one in the game is a carbon copy is pretty much the same as this.

at least it's not complete with fools gold trim.
And for the frugal Scotland fan simply take last years away shirt, tie a flag round your waist and hey presto you've saved £50!

I'd be more inclined to buy the away one rather than the home ones that have been churned out in recent years.

http://www.greavessports.com/scotland-alternative-test-jersey-mens-p122533

80 quid????

That proper photo has confirmed it for me - I think it's fairly horrific.

Majestic83 wrote:I don't mind it and as a marketing tool I think it will sell especially amongst younger fans. It could have been a lot worse having seen some of canterburys recent designs.

Maj - you cannot be serious. It looks like it was designed as part of a primary school art competition.

George Carlin wrote:

Majestic83 wrote:I don't mind it and as a marketing tool I think it will sell especially amongst younger fans. It could have been a lot worse having seen some of canterburys recent designs.

Maj - you cannot be serious. It looks like it was designed as part of a primary school art competition.

Have you seen some of the other kits by canterbury recently?

I honestly don't think its that bad. I think it probably will be split opinions on it but having spoke to a few of the other rugby boys they all quite like it too!

There will only ever be one Scotland shirt - - I would never wear anything but the classic home strip

Most of the Scotland tops I have had in the past I have been more than happy to wear outwith going to a rugby game - I'd feel a complete tool if I wore that walking down the street or at the shops!

Oh dear, it is utterly terrible.

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=10151178955644476&set=a.122409929475.98908.8382559475&type=1&theater

Anything's better than the Scottish 07 RWC strip worn in the NZ pool match - it looked as bad as the NZ away one.

Majestic83 wrote:

George Carlin wrote:

Majestic83 wrote:I don't mind it and as a marketing tool I think it will sell especially amongst younger fans. It could have been a lot worse having seen some of canterburys recent designs.

Maj - you cannot be serious. It looks like it was designed as part of a primary school art competition.

Have you seen some of the other kits by canterbury recently?

I honestly don't think its that bad. I think it probably will be split opinions on it but having spoke to a few of the other rugby boys they all quite like it too!

Yes. The England purple one is very nice. Why couldn't we have that one?

If you're going to incorporate the Saltire, then why not embed it into the fabric, like the Ospreys black kit with the Welsh clubs on it?

It looks like the designers came back from the pub and realised that they'd got their dates wrong and had to submit something in the next 10 minutes.

"Don't panic Wullie, I just thought of something that'll fill the space up".

"That's genius, Doogie. Genius".

Christ we're going to be wearing it against he All Blacks...

It's like we're patching up a collective team hernia.