Scotland in the AIs

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Interesting piece in the Herald today, with likely starting team:

Good crop, bad crop: autumn harvest of injuries for Robinson

by Alasdair Reid, Rugby reporter

The teams are barely out of the starting blocks, but already the pace of the season is cranking up. Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS
Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS

Within a couple of weeks, the genteel trot of the Rabo-Direct PRO12 will have changed to the lusty canter of the Heineken Cup. And after that, it really begins to get serious.

Time was when autumn internationals were a welcome distraction from the grind of the domestic season and a chance for some gin-soaked old duffers to say hello to their mates from the colonies. After that, they became a useful tool for swelling the coffers of the home Unions, struggling with the new financial reality of rugby as a professional game. Now, though, their significance is even greater.

For if rugby's international calendar looks like a marathon at times, the November Test period now marks the point when the race becomes a sprint. At stake are world rankings places that will determine the seeding bands for the 2015 World Cup. Get into the top four and you're laughing. Five to eight and you're still comfortable. Anything lower than eighth and you can start to panic.

Scotland are currently ninth. That represents considerable progress – courtesy of three wins on their recent Australasia tour – on the 12th slot, their lowest ever, occupied after this year's Six Nations whitewash, but the law of diminishing returns kicks in fiercely the higher up that ladder you go.

The next step, the one that will have the most critical bearing on their prospects in 2015, is the hardest of all. The rankings are calculated using a formula of mind-addling complexity. And if you can get your head round the principles behind the sums, you have to do them over and over again to allow for all sorts of results, in all sorts of places, by all sorts of margins. It is a job for the very smart or the very sad.

It is probably best not to speculate which category Scotland coach Andy Robinson falls into (he was a maths teacher in a previous life so we can probably take the charitable view) but the scenario will unquestionably occupy his attention over the weeks ahead.

To achieve a top-eight slot, Scotland will almost certainly have to enjoy a solid November series, probably two wins, or possibly a win and a draw, from their games against New Zealand, South Africa and Tonga. At the same time, they will be praying that Ireland and Argentina, seventh and eighth respectively, endure autumns of unremitting misery.

Robinson is likely to name his squad early in the week beginning October 21, with a squad-gathering in St Andrews the week after. So how do the runners and riders shape up? When Robinson's side returned from Australasia three months ago with a trio of wins under their belts, and a host of new players having proven their Test worth, it was a task he would have relished. But things have changed since – and not many for the better.

Let's start with the serious stuff. Since the squad came back, Chris Cusiter, Joe Ansbro and Rob Harley have all been ruled out of autumn matches by long-term injuries. All are front-rank players, although none would be considered a certain start for any or all of the games. Meanwhile, Glasgow props Jon Welsh and Ed Kalman, both of whom gained first caps during the Six Nations, have injuries that mean they will play no part in the forthcoming Tests.

Such things can be expected, and Robinson has been around the Test scene long enough to know it. He also has enough miles on his clock to appreciate that one player's injury is another's golden opportunity. If the conveyor belt of talent is running smoothly the understudies should be ready to step into the gaps. Unfortunately for Scotland, though, its gears have been grinding just lately. Yes, this has been a time of plenty in some positions, but a dearth in other areas.

Take Cusiter's scrum-half berth, for instance. A signature position for Scotland, the country has rarely been short of nippy little blokes who can do the business around the base of the scrum, but with the exception of Greig Laidlaw, now converted to a fly-half, none has really emerged in the past six years. Cusiter, Mike Blair and Rory Lawson have been scrapping over the jersey, and no one has broken into their circle. All very well, but the three are all now north of 30 (surprisingly, Lawson, often seen as the junior member of the group, is the oldest). To complicate matters further, Blair and Lawson both play second-division rugby: Blair in France with Brive, Lawson with England's Newcastle. To complicate the complication, Blair's outings have been limited by a shoulder injury.

Indeed, when not brushing up their language skills, most of Scotland's French contingent have been deepening their knowledge of medical facilities across the channel. Max Evans and Euan Murray have also been struggling recently, as has Johnnie Beattie, whose plan to reignite his career at Montpellier lasted only until he picked up a thigh injury in a pre-season friendly. Alasdair Strokosch, rapidly becoming a cult figure at Perpignan, is the only unqualified success.

Murray can already be ruled out of the first game, against New Zealand, on the basis that it takes place on a Sunday. But things took a turn for the worse when Moray Low picked up what looked like a serious knee injury in Glasgow's win over Zebre on Friday. If Low is ruled out of the November matches then Robinson would have to go pretty far down the pecking order to find another specialist tighthead – or, possibly, consider moving Ryan Grant to the other side of the scrum.

But Robinson has another concern as the autumn programme looms: just how battle-hardened will some of his core players be by the time of that match at Murrayfield on November 11? A number of them – Kelly Brown, Stuart Hogg, Dave Denton and Rory Lamont – could still be said to be in a rehabilitation phase, either just back from injury lay-offs or just about to return. All will be capable of playing by the second weekend in November. But it is still the All Blacks.

Yet there is good news too. While we fret about players being under-prepared, the deepening of the squads at Edinburgh and Glasgow means few of them are likely to be overcooked. And a few lesser lights are starting to show serious form too. Stewart McInally and Grant Gilchrist have been adding some serious grunt to the Edinburgh pack in recent weeks. Tom Ryder and Chris Fusaro have been done the same at Glasgow. Peter Murchie and Henry Pyrgos have looked sharp behind the Warriors' scrum.

So who will be in that team that lines up against the All Blacks?

Barring further injuries, assuming rehab plans continue, and discounting the possibility Robinson will send out a weakened team to protect top players for the Springboks match six days later, you can expect to see something like this: Stuart Hogg; Sean Lamont, Nick De Luca, Matt Scott, Tim Visser; Greig Laidlaw, Rory Lawson. Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Jim Hamilton, Richie Gray, Kelly Brown, Ross Rennie, Dave Denton.

RD, did 'You Know Who' aka 'The BBE' not punt Ally Hogg from Edinburgh a few seasons ago. There may lay the reason for his international exile.

I haven't seen him play this season but i've always rated hogg. He was outstanding in his early days but I felt bulked up too much thereafter and lost pace. Still, he is a better player than many give him credit for, and i'd have no issues seeing him in a scotland jersey again. Don't rate wilson at present and on last nights performance denton needs a few words. Mcinally is playing well at the moment and for me he is also a very astute rugby player.

I've seen highlights of sale this season and vernon is not playing well enough.

So we're in agreement, Robinson should pick Hogg - or McInally but definitely not play Barclay, Brown or, God forbid, Strokosch out of position - if Denton is crocked? I don't think we can really hold the Championship against Hogg seeing as we'll probably have to pick at least one scrum-half who isn't playing top-flight rugby. To be honest, I'm not even sure Scotland want an 'explosive' number-eight at this stage because our support play is so poor that whenever Denton makes a break he's likely to be turned over seeing as there'll only be a couple of other Scottish players who can be bothered trying to get to him.

Sure I read somewhere that strokosh has become a bit of a cult figure in France!

RDW_Scotland wrote:Sure I read somewhere that strokosh has become a bit of a cult figure in France!

hootsman. ergo, probably utter garbage.

It was Rafa that punted Hogg from embra, at the same time as Dave Callam, leaving us with no number 8's until the following season when Talei, Mcinally and Denton all sprung out of the ground.

In agreement though, Id have no problems with Hogg making a return to the international fold, as long as the pack has a good balance to it. If were picking intelligent players over boshers in the backrow, we need a tight five that will work their socks off hitting rucks etc. Shouldnt be problem with our front row, as none of them are known for being lazy, the problem however is in the 2nd row. Unfortunately, the first choice players wont necessarily fit into the hard working tight five idea. Neither Gray nor Kellock are grafters. Its debatable wether we can accomodate one slacker in the team, suicidal if we try two. We need either Gilchrist, Ryder or Hamilton to come in. Naturally, id be inclined to drop Kellock over Gray, who talks the talk, but never walks the walk in a scotland shirt. I wouldnt be worried about Kellocks lineout work either, Grays one of the best front jumpers in the world, his lineout work is totally underated. Im sure hes had the most steals or certainly been up there in the past two 6 nations tournaments. The issue is that he sometimes has the tendancy to show-pony.

If I were picking the squad I'd pick:

Props: Ryan Grant, Gordon Reid, Allan Jacobsen, Geoff Cross, Euan Murray
Hookers: Ross Ford, Dougie Hall, Pat MacArthur
Second row: Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton, Fraser McKenzie, Al Kellock, Grant Gilchrist
Back Row: Kelly Brown, Al Strockosch, Stuart MacInally, Ross Rennie, Chris Fusaro, John Barclay, David Denton, Ryan Wilson
Scrum-Halves: Mike Blair, Rory Lawson, Henry Pyrgos
Fly-Halves: Greig Laidlaw, Duncan Weir
Centres: Peter Horne, Matt Scott, Nick De Luca, Alex Dunbar
Back-three: Tom Brown, Stuart Hogg, Greig Tonks, Sean Lamont, Tim Visser, Max Evans,

Difficult to predict the squad until after the first 2 rounds of Heineken Cup, but would probably expect it to be a bit smaller than that, probably losing a second row and a couple of back rows from what you've picked - would expect a third fly half though, almost certainly Jackson. Wouldn't normally have expected Gordon Reid to be in the squad but if it's going to be 23 man squads we'll need 5 props, and with current injuries he's probably the best we have available to be the 5th. I believe MacArthur is injured until after the AIs so Scott Lawson will probably be third hooker. I was impressed with Horne on Saturday but can't see Robinson selecting him unless he has an outstanding few weeks in the Heineken Cup. Evans could probably provide the other centre cover. Likewise Laidlaw covering scrum half with Pyrgos dropping out.

So my prediction would be

Grant, Jacobsen, Reid, Cross, Murray
Ford, Hall, S Lawson
Gray, Hamilton, Kellock, ?
Brown, Strokosch, Rennie, Barclay, Denton, ?
Blair, R Lawson
Laidlaw, Weir, Jackson
Scott, De Luca, Dunbar
Visser, Evans, Hogg, Lamont, Brown, Tonks

I'd have another number 8 in there but no idea whether to pick MacInally, Wilson, Vernon or Hogg. I think Robinson might be happy with Brown and Barclay covering that position though. Same with backup lock, not sure who's on best form out of Ryder, Swinson, Gilchrist and McKenzie.

I think Grant Gilchrist will have a chance to join this squad. Obviously Hamilton, Gray and Kellock will be the match day locks, but I'd say on form this season Gilchrist deserves to make this squad.

The HC will be critical to the selection process. The Saracens game will be a massive test for the Edinburgh forwards. On the evidence of Friday's game against Treviso, I'd be surprised if the Edinburgh half backs touched the ball.

Agree about Gilchrist!

My starting XV would be..

1.Grant
2. Ford
3. Reid
4. Gray
5. Hamilton
6. Brown
7. Rennie
8. MacInally
9. Cusiter
10. Laidlaw
11. Visser
12. Scott
13. Hogg
14. Brown
15. Tonks

bsando wrote:Agree about Gilchrist!

My starting XV would be..

1.Grant
2. Ford
3. Reid
4. Gray
5. Hamilton
6. Brown
7. Rennie
8. MacInally
9. Cusiter
10. Laidlaw
11. Visser
12. Scott
13. Hogg
14. Brown
15. Tonks

Mind Cusiter is crocked.

My bad, thought he'd be fit by November. Blair then I guess or Lawson, but I think we need Scottish Aaron Smith or Will Genia to emerge, I am getting a bit bored with Blair, Cusiter, Lawson, would be nice to see a new cap at 9.

bsando wrote:My bad, thought he'd be fit by November. Blair then I guess or Lawson, but I think we need Scottish Aaron Smith or Will Genia to emerge, I am getting a bit bored with Blair, Cusiter, Lawson, would be nice to see a new cap at 9.

Young Richard Snedden at Currie looks lively and so does George Graham at Gala.

There is talent, we just need to bring it up.

If it's the Richard Sneddon I'm thinking of he's not overly young - he's older than me definitely! is he not 27/28?

http://www.currierugby.org/seniors/subplayers.asp

He'll be 28 in December - I remember he showed promise when he was younger but never really took it further.

RDW_Scotland wrote:If it's the Richard Sneddon I'm thinking of he's not overly young - he's older than me definitely! is he not 27/28?

You're asking the wrong person, RDS. I'm 35 now. Every fecker out there is younger than me.

Ha! Just waiting on someone even older saying "35?? Try being 55!"

George Graham is young though - I'll give you that one!

Contrary to what I said the other week, our scrum half factory has taken a wee bit of time off, but is getting back up to speed.

Kennedy and Mconnell were both identified a few years back as having the goods, and both of them are beginning to come through, though itll be at least a year before we can talk about either being ready for the next step.

Then theres Scott Steele at the Tigers, Matt Torrance, formerly of the galacticos (Heard they dropped him after he commited to the scotland u20's in the middle of shinglergate) and ive heard that Alex Glashan could be the best of the lot.

And if we desperately need a stop gap, has Karl Dickson played for the saxons or the sevens?

There is also Mark McMillain at Bath, he has always been a good player, just unlucky that Blair and Cusiter have been around the same time as him. He can come in and definitely do a job for Scotland.

There is young talent around coming through, another who i'm surprised hasn't been given the step up to pro ranks is peter jerecevich who is now at Ayr and with Scotland 7s. Think he is about 23 but always thought he seemed a good player and is definitely very tricky to play against.
Morgan Ward the Aberdeen scrum half seems a livewire too and was playing pro in france for a bit.
Add to that Sam Johnston at Boroughmuir, played quite a bit of club rugby with him at his old club and he definitely is good enough to step up but never been given the opportunity.

Just looked at Alex Glashan's bio on the SRU site and he was born in 1994! For some reason I find this rather depressing.

Holy crap.

Captain_Sensible wrote:Just looked at Alex Glashan's bio on the SRU site and he was born in 1994! For some reason I find this rather depressing.

Ouch, I was 22 when he was born. Now I want a drink.....

Captain_Sensible wrote:Just looked at Alex Glashan's bio on the SRU site and he was born in 1994! For some reason I find this rather depressing.

My haircut's older than that.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Ha! Just waiting on someone even older saying "35?? Try being 55!"

Wait until ASBO logs on. He's old enough to be Mark Bennett's grandfather.

Didn't Kennedy play well the other night for Glasgow?

I guess the plan must be for Lawson, Blair and Cusiter to take us through the next 2-3 years, by which time Black, McConnell, Kennedy et all will be ready to step up.

Either that or there isn't a plan....

Is Pyrgos Scotland qualified? Seems to be improving and developing his game

funnyExiledScot wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:Ha! Just waiting on someone even older saying "35?? Try being 55!"

Wait until ASBO logs on. He's old enough to be Mark Bennett's grandfather.

And don't make jokes about age around the venerable emack (Alan Mackie).

When he started watching, the 22 yard line was called "ye XXII steppes" (etc).

Thats good to hear there is some potential at 9 then, just wish we'd try some of them out. I feel if we got a really decent scrum half we'd be far far better and the tries would come!

One would assume that Blair and Pyrgos will be the recognised 9's in the team with Laidlaw, Weir and Jackson at 10 and Greg stepping into 9 if necessary. Henry will probably play vs Tonga in Aberdeen, preferably alongside one of his teammates. I can see one game with Jackson at 10 and Laidlaw at 9... And then Blair and Laidlaw together for the other game.

Team v NZ

15. Hogg
14. Visser
13. DeLuca
12. Scott
11. Lamont

10. Laidlaw
9. Blair

8. Wilson (Denton if fit)
7. Barclay
6. Brown
5. Hamilton
4. Gray
3. Cross
2. Ford
1. Grant

16. Hall
17. Chunk
18. Kellock
19. Rennie
20. Jackson
21. Horne
22. Tonks

UlstermaninGlasgow wrote:One would assume that Blair and Pyrgos will be the recognised 9's in the team with Laidlaw, Weir and Jackson at 10 and Greg stepping into 9 if necessary. Henry will probably play vs Tonga in Aberdeen, preferably alongside one of his teammates. I can see one game with Jackson at 10 and Laidlaw at 9... And then Blair and Laidlaw together for the other game.

Team v NZ

15. Hogg
14. Visser
13. DeLuca
12. Scott
11. Lamont

10. Laidlaw
9. Blair

8. Wilson (Denton if fit)
7. Barclay
6. Brown
5. Hamilton
4. Gray
3. Cross
2. Ford
1. Grant

16. Hall
17. Chunk
18. Kellock
19. Rennie
20. Jackson
21. Horne
22. Tonks

Horne and Tonks is a bit redundant, as both cover centre, fullback, and at a push stand off. Id be more inclined to put Brown on the bench, Mcinally and Rennie in the back row.

People, stop putting visser on the right wing - he's a left winger and has been in every game he's played for Edinburgh!!!

Sorry - pet hate!


As for team selection we know he picks what he knows best so can't see there being too many changes from the core of the team that played in the summer.

Does it really matter which wing a player plays on?

Yep it does make a difference to wingers what wing they play on due to what foot they kick with, what foot is their better foot for stepping off. Often seems to be the case the right winger is the stronger defender and the left wing is the more attacking wing.

Very much so. Visser has played his entire career on the left wing, with only a handful of games on the right wing. All of his positioning, running lines, defensive strategy and even kicking is based on him being having all his experience and training on the left wing.

Put it this way - which wing did Shane Williams become a legend? Jonah Lomu? they were left wingers and played pretty much all their career there.

Dunno why most people are quick to rule out Barcs. He's been one of the few consistent performers this season for Glasgow. Rennie is fantastic but I'm coming round to JB again...

As for the wings, RDW my apologies. I just knew he was my 1st choice for wing therefore he ended up at RW. In truth I would be tempted by Max Evans on the RW and Viss on the LW. But can't see past SLamont even if he's not been in great form. If only DTH were Scottish/not crocked.....

No problems Ulsterman - just one of my pet annoyances!

Not quite as annoying as people saying 'aswell' or 'alot', or mixing up 'there, their and they're' but lets not get into that!

I think Barclay is a good player but Ross Rennie adds another dimension, he seems hungrier than Barclay and for me anyway he is better at linking up the backs and forwards and supports the players making breaks better.
An openside should be noticeable on the pitch with the work that they do where as quite often during a game i forget Barclay is playing sometimes.
At the moment I'd go Rennie as first choice openside with Fusaro as back up but Barclay will be in the squad as off the bench he is useful as he can cover 6 and 8 if needed too.

Potential call ups for Ally Hogg or Johnnie Beattie?

I know Hogg is playing in the CHampionship, but apparently he's been tearing it up there, playing at 8 and 6 I think...?

I'd say yes to Ally Hogg as he is playing well and has always been a great player and given his full effort when he has played for Scotland. Johnnie Beattie I'm not sure about, doesn't seem to have been playing that much for Montpellier so far, he seems stuck behind ouedrago, gogordze and remy martin in the pecking order.

Yeh, I agree about Hogg. He's a very abrasive style player, and I think he combined with Rennie and Denton, could form a menacing back row.

Let's not forget that Rennie was enormous in the SH tour.

He will never, ever get any credit for it from Aussie commentators who self indulgently spent all of their time criticising their own players for presumably falling over every time they got the ball but anyone who studied the game (and in particular looked at the post-game stats) would realise that Pocock did not play well because Rennie and Strokosch did not let him.

Rennie is only going to get better too, after all his injuries his knee is only now getting close to 100%. Rennie is extremely quick around the park which helps him too support players well and always seems to be first at the breakdowns. His pilfering skills are right up there with the very best and seems more prominent at stealing ball from opposition at the tackle.
What stood out for me from Rennie was in the six nations and summer tour was how many breaks he made with ball in hand and how many yards he made. The amount of breaks he made during this year so far is far more than i can remember Barclay making in his whole career!

Wilson would be extremely lucky to get a cap based on what I've seen of him this season. I'd far rather use McInally were Denton not to make it, but Denton has to be a clear first choice.

Brown, Rennie and Denton could be a great combination of grafter, fetcher and carrier, and all have fairly good handling skills, plus Brown assists with the line-out work.

Tonks should feature in the squad, he's been the best fullback so far this season, and Scott and De Luca will no doubt have the chance to play together again.

The question will be form. Can any of the players raise their game in these HC games to truly hit the ABs game playing well. So far very few Scotland players have really started the season well.

Here's my list:

Hamilton, Brown, Rennie, McInally, Horne, Visser and Tonks.

All of the others need to up their game. In some cases considerably.

My 1st XXII

1. Grant
2. Ford
3. Cross
4. Gray
5. Hamilton
6. Brown (c)
7. Rennie
8. Denton

9. Laidlaw
10. Jackson
11. Visser
12. Scott
13. NDL
14. Lamont
15. Hogg/Tonks/Brown Had to sit on the fence with this one.

16. Jacobson
17. Macarthur
18. Insp Kellock
19. Barclay
20. Lawson
21. Horne
22. Hogg/Tonks/Brown

I would presonally love to see what a Laidlaw/Jackson combination could do. Laidlaw obviously handling the kicking duties from Scrum half.

Surely Hamilton rather than Kellock in the XV Radge??

I'd start Tonks at 15 and have Hogg on the bench.

Yeah in my Team Kellock is on the bench and in the starting XV....

Hamilton has been playing pretty well this season and Always plays well for Scotland.

That error has taken the talking point away from Laidlaw switching back to 9...... thoughts?

I think Laidlaw needs game time at 9 for Edinburgh before he's chucked back into the position for Scotland. Plus, I just don't trust Jackson to manage the game properly from 10.

Does anyone know when Weir is due back?

Even when fit, the only thing I feel Weir does better than Jackson is kick better from the tee.

Not convinced that we have found our solution to 10 in Laidlaw especially when we are so thin on the ground at 9.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:Even when fit, the only thing I feel Weir does better than Jackson is kick better from the tee.

Disagree. Better game management all round, better defense and better temperament. He can produce a running game when he's asked to (see Scotland A game vs Saxons). Last season at Glasgow Lineen forced all the creative juices out of him and burned them in a skip.

Captain_Sensible wrote:

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:Even when fit, the only thing I feel Weir does better than Jackson is kick better from the tee.

Disagree. Better game management all round, better defense and better temperament. He can produce a running game when he's asked to (see Scotland A game vs Saxons). Last season at Glasgow Lineen forced all the creative juices out of him and burned them in a skip.

Captain_Sensible wrote:

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:Even when fit, the only thing I feel Weir does better than Jackson is kick better from the tee.

Disagree. Better game management all round, better defense and better temperament. He can produce a running game when he's asked to (see Scotland A game vs Saxons). Last season at Glasgow Lineen forced all the creative juices out of him and burned them in a skip.

Yep totally agree, when Weir was given a license to play a running game against the saxons he was outstanding.
The problem with Scotland and the pro teams and even some of the club teams is that players are told too much what to do and stick to a certain game plan. A lot of the players have good running skills but it is drilled out of them and instead of playing heads up rugby like a lot are capable off they feel they have to stick to the plan even if a better option is on.