Scotland in the AIs

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Interesting piece in the Herald today, with likely starting team:

Good crop, bad crop: autumn harvest of injuries for Robinson

by Alasdair Reid, Rugby reporter

The teams are barely out of the starting blocks, but already the pace of the season is cranking up. Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS
Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS

Within a couple of weeks, the genteel trot of the Rabo-Direct PRO12 will have changed to the lusty canter of the Heineken Cup. And after that, it really begins to get serious.

Time was when autumn internationals were a welcome distraction from the grind of the domestic season and a chance for some gin-soaked old duffers to say hello to their mates from the colonies. After that, they became a useful tool for swelling the coffers of the home Unions, struggling with the new financial reality of rugby as a professional game. Now, though, their significance is even greater.

For if rugby's international calendar looks like a marathon at times, the November Test period now marks the point when the race becomes a sprint. At stake are world rankings places that will determine the seeding bands for the 2015 World Cup. Get into the top four and you're laughing. Five to eight and you're still comfortable. Anything lower than eighth and you can start to panic.

Scotland are currently ninth. That represents considerable progress – courtesy of three wins on their recent Australasia tour – on the 12th slot, their lowest ever, occupied after this year's Six Nations whitewash, but the law of diminishing returns kicks in fiercely the higher up that ladder you go.

The next step, the one that will have the most critical bearing on their prospects in 2015, is the hardest of all. The rankings are calculated using a formula of mind-addling complexity. And if you can get your head round the principles behind the sums, you have to do them over and over again to allow for all sorts of results, in all sorts of places, by all sorts of margins. It is a job for the very smart or the very sad.

It is probably best not to speculate which category Scotland coach Andy Robinson falls into (he was a maths teacher in a previous life so we can probably take the charitable view) but the scenario will unquestionably occupy his attention over the weeks ahead.

To achieve a top-eight slot, Scotland will almost certainly have to enjoy a solid November series, probably two wins, or possibly a win and a draw, from their games against New Zealand, South Africa and Tonga. At the same time, they will be praying that Ireland and Argentina, seventh and eighth respectively, endure autumns of unremitting misery.

Robinson is likely to name his squad early in the week beginning October 21, with a squad-gathering in St Andrews the week after. So how do the runners and riders shape up? When Robinson's side returned from Australasia three months ago with a trio of wins under their belts, and a host of new players having proven their Test worth, it was a task he would have relished. But things have changed since – and not many for the better.

Let's start with the serious stuff. Since the squad came back, Chris Cusiter, Joe Ansbro and Rob Harley have all been ruled out of autumn matches by long-term injuries. All are front-rank players, although none would be considered a certain start for any or all of the games. Meanwhile, Glasgow props Jon Welsh and Ed Kalman, both of whom gained first caps during the Six Nations, have injuries that mean they will play no part in the forthcoming Tests.

Such things can be expected, and Robinson has been around the Test scene long enough to know it. He also has enough miles on his clock to appreciate that one player's injury is another's golden opportunity. If the conveyor belt of talent is running smoothly the understudies should be ready to step into the gaps. Unfortunately for Scotland, though, its gears have been grinding just lately. Yes, this has been a time of plenty in some positions, but a dearth in other areas.

Take Cusiter's scrum-half berth, for instance. A signature position for Scotland, the country has rarely been short of nippy little blokes who can do the business around the base of the scrum, but with the exception of Greig Laidlaw, now converted to a fly-half, none has really emerged in the past six years. Cusiter, Mike Blair and Rory Lawson have been scrapping over the jersey, and no one has broken into their circle. All very well, but the three are all now north of 30 (surprisingly, Lawson, often seen as the junior member of the group, is the oldest). To complicate matters further, Blair and Lawson both play second-division rugby: Blair in France with Brive, Lawson with England's Newcastle. To complicate the complication, Blair's outings have been limited by a shoulder injury.

Indeed, when not brushing up their language skills, most of Scotland's French contingent have been deepening their knowledge of medical facilities across the channel. Max Evans and Euan Murray have also been struggling recently, as has Johnnie Beattie, whose plan to reignite his career at Montpellier lasted only until he picked up a thigh injury in a pre-season friendly. Alasdair Strokosch, rapidly becoming a cult figure at Perpignan, is the only unqualified success.

Murray can already be ruled out of the first game, against New Zealand, on the basis that it takes place on a Sunday. But things took a turn for the worse when Moray Low picked up what looked like a serious knee injury in Glasgow's win over Zebre on Friday. If Low is ruled out of the November matches then Robinson would have to go pretty far down the pecking order to find another specialist tighthead – or, possibly, consider moving Ryan Grant to the other side of the scrum.

But Robinson has another concern as the autumn programme looms: just how battle-hardened will some of his core players be by the time of that match at Murrayfield on November 11? A number of them – Kelly Brown, Stuart Hogg, Dave Denton and Rory Lamont – could still be said to be in a rehabilitation phase, either just back from injury lay-offs or just about to return. All will be capable of playing by the second weekend in November. But it is still the All Blacks.

Yet there is good news too. While we fret about players being under-prepared, the deepening of the squads at Edinburgh and Glasgow means few of them are likely to be overcooked. And a few lesser lights are starting to show serious form too. Stewart McInally and Grant Gilchrist have been adding some serious grunt to the Edinburgh pack in recent weeks. Tom Ryder and Chris Fusaro have been done the same at Glasgow. Peter Murchie and Henry Pyrgos have looked sharp behind the Warriors' scrum.

So who will be in that team that lines up against the All Blacks?

Barring further injuries, assuming rehab plans continue, and discounting the possibility Robinson will send out a weakened team to protect top players for the Springboks match six days later, you can expect to see something like this: Stuart Hogg; Sean Lamont, Nick De Luca, Matt Scott, Tim Visser; Greig Laidlaw, Rory Lawson. Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Jim Hamilton, Richie Gray, Kelly Brown, Ross Rennie, Dave Denton.

In the bulk of Glasgows games this season Jackson has looked like the greater threat with the ball in hand.

To be fair radge Duncan only had 2 full games before he got injured. And had the donkey outside him for at least 1.5 of those games... I reckon a back line of 9. Matawalu, 10. Weir, 11. Seymour, 12. Horne, 13. Dunbar, 14. Lamont, 15. Murchie/Hogg would do plenty of damage. That's the back line I expect to see either vs saints or Ulster at some point!

Even better when DTH returns. Glasgow could even score a try or two with that side.

I'm pretty even on jackson vs weir. Neither have really delivered yet, but both have shown glimpses of real promise. Losing morrison from 12 will help them. He worked well for glasgow with parks at 10, but rugby is thankfully moving on and better footballers are needed.

Well it's going to be Jackson and Laidlaw for the AI now. We're Duncan is out for 6 weeks with that knee injury! Bugger...

Yeah saw that - Jackson on the bench it is then!

I guess Scott Wight comes back into the reckoning at Glasgow then, with Laidlaw and Jackson the frontrunners for the Scotland squad.

Hopefully Weir recovers well from that knee injury. Not sure it's his first.

Anyone noticed that with Weir out that leaves us with 1 10 for the AIs plus Jackson who is not on form at the moment (ever). So who's the cover?

Gordon Ross - I wouldn't mind actually
WCP - er no
He who who shall not be named - ?

Matt Scott and tonks have experience at 10, but obviously not at that level

Yeah was going to include them and other ex 10s like Horne, or newbies like Leonard, but thought better of it due to lack of experience. Scary isn't it.

Jackson is on form, just not with the boot. He had a pretty decent game with ball in hand when Pete Horne took the kicking duties off him in the Cardiff game! But yeah the grounds looking a bit thin at the minute unless Wight/Leonard get a bit of gametime!!

Gordon Ross could actually be a good shout, in brilliant form with London Welsh and helping them to really compete in the premiership when most people thought they'd be beaten badly every week.

justified sinner wrote:Anyone noticed that with Weir out that leaves us with 1 10 for the AIs plus Jackson who is not on form at the moment (ever). So who's the cover?

Gordon Ross - I wouldn't mind actually
WCP - er no
He who who shall not be named - ?

Very harsh on Jackson. He looked good everytime I have seen him play for Glasgow. Granted he cannae kick for toffees but he is pretty good with the ball in hand.

It'd be quite a story if after a 6 year gap Gordon Ross made a return to Scotland duties...

So, after all is said and done, will scotland beat the Boks?

Good question. With Goosen being out, guess that means Steyn will play 10. And given his kickings been a bit off this season that could be a major factor in a game that's likely to be dominated by penalties.
Concerningly from a Scottish point of view is the fact that Habana has found his scoring boots again. Saw all of his tries in the 4 nations and wow talk about making something out of nothing. His chip kick against NZ was just sheer individual brilliance.
Having said that I reckon we'll sneak home, cause unlike NZ we know we can beat South Africa.

Good one Glove.

I think it is possible that Jantjies might get an opportunity to play, JP Pietersen will be back as well.

We have seen Scotland knows how to grind a win at the cold Murrayfield and SA doesn't seem to like it so much.

Will be interesting though.

I'll be sure to do my rain dance when I get to Edinburgh. Nothing like a bit of rain to level the playing field...
Wonder what shape both teams will be in from the previous weekend? Could be some very sore bodies out there. Just like 2 years ago we'll probably go into this game on the back of a hiding from the All Blacks.

You must beat them at some point, might as well be this year.

Problem is we've go the ABs first up and they only have Italy the next week - can't see them needing to rest their top players!

So then you beat their best players, why not?

Well put it this way, South Africa are clear favourties to beat us, having better players in almost every position, however, unlike New Zealand, who can play any which way and consistently at a level that we can't live with, South Africa are less consistent in terms of performance levels and often more predictable in terms of style, meaning that we have a next to zero chance against NZ, but a slim chance against South Africa.

We'll need a ref willing to look closely at the binding of the Beast, and weather than negates the open running threats of Pietersen and Habana (which we can't match). Make it a dour slugfest and assume that SA approach the game with their customary lack of imagination, and our chances increase. Morne Steyn at 10 kicking like a drain and our chances double.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Problem is we've go the ABs first up and they only have Italy the next week - can't see them needing to rest their top players!

Can't see that making a huge difference. We usually get humped by the second string who all play with a point to prove. Hopefully this time we'll get a very complacent 1st XV......

Yes, very true, our results have been very inconsistent these last few years, we seem to get ourselves unstuck with some player pulling a brainfart, whether it is to shoot out of the line in defence, getting an inexplicably stupid yellow card, or of course our newest weapon to our arsenal, the missed goal kicks.

I don't care if we get a humping if I can see McCaw and Carter play - might not be many more chances to have those guys at Murrayfield.

2 of the greats IMO!

I am not sure what Scotland's injuries look like, but I think you currently have some very good players in your squad, so I wouldn't be surprised if Scotland does well this Autumn.

Biltong wrote:I am not sure what Scotland's injuries look like, but I think you currently have some very good players in your squad, so I wouldn't be surprised if Scotland does well this Autumn.

Knowing the way we roll, we'd achieve the unthinkable clean sweep followed by another 6 nations whitewash...

Dream on FES!!

After seeing what an apparent 2nd XV did to Ireland in the summer I expect a drubbing.

The only time I have ever seen Scotland look like beating the All Blacks was the 1999 RWC quarter Final we got hosed but at least we kept the score semi respectable.

We can beat South Africa. Again unlikely but not impossible. Beating the All Blacks I don't think is something this Scottish side is capable of.

We're actually not too badly off on the injury front (at the moment), the bigger concern is the form of our key players, which hasn't been great. My hope is that the HC brings them up a notch or two.

RDW - agreed. I want all the stars out against us. That way, when we win, we won't get the usual nonsense about us only beating second string (from the jealous embittered Welsh fans after their latest Jim'll Fix It experience at the hands of the SH).

Have any teams beaten the ABs in the professional era other than SA, Aus, England and France?

Pretty sure that's a no.

Plenty of moral victories no doubt.

I think it'd be great if Scotland could stay within 20 of the All Blacks & score a try, I'd go away fairly happy if that was the case

I'd be quite happy with 49-20 TBH if it meant we scored a few tries!

Now that'd be good. Depressing to think that we haven't corssed the whitewash against NZ since Webster's late try in 2005.

That the one when he scored an amazing try then had to go off with a broken leg after?? (I don't think it was quite as dramatic as that but broken leg sounds better!)

I thought that try was against Australia? When he jinked through, had us all wondering why he'd been so rubbish up to that point for Scotland, scored, then got injured, and returned to service as usual thereafter!

Nah, 79th minute of the match, WCP gets the ball in the about 15m out, threads a delicate grubbed through and Webster out dives Umanga to touch down

Ah yes, that's not the try I was thinking of. WCP threading through a grubber (probably going for a drop goal) for a score against the AB's, those were the days.....

Found it on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYsmcpYbOmk&feature=youtube_gdata_player those were indeed the days

Majestic83 wrote:Gordon Ross could actually be a good shout, in brilliant form with London Welsh and helping them to really compete in the premiership when most people thought they'd be beaten badly every week.

I find it depressing that Scotland are in a position where recalling players who have not been capped since 2006 becomes an option. We're already going to be playing players from the Championship and French Pro D2. It really is a shocking indictment of how poor Scottish rugby's infrastructure is.

I dunno guys. It really gets depressing rolling up to M'field to see your team get taken apart by the ABs second team. Can't see anything else this time tbh

jackson at 10 for the AI's? I thought he was world class today until he got injured but he has been very inconsistent overall. Perhaps all he needed was more game time to get some form back. Regardless, I'll be keeping a close eye on him because I think he was marvellous today vs Saints

Yes bsando - Jackson is a class act- esp now kicking duties are taken from him. Now injured too which is really uttter feckin shiiite !

Beattie playing well for Montpellier against Toulon, started at 8 and has really taken his chance with them in this game.

Thought Jackson was brilliant today, I think with the kicking duties taken off him he seems more relaxed and back to his best. Was also impressed with Horne at 12 and Dunbar at 13, good pairing!

Agree that jackson played strongly, and dunbar caused trouble from 13. Horne is the form 12 in scotland now, although I need to see more of him to make up my mind.

Best i've seen pyrgos play today, hopefully his confidence can grow from here, as we need options in that position.

Anyone else horrified at the thought of what The Bokke and NZ are going to do with us after the Burgh's capitulation and Glasgow butchering a 15 point lead in the HC this weekend?

Bit of a curve ball...would you consider Hogg?

Yes hes playing in the championship...but hes like a man possessed...like hes found his peak form again under Deano.

Is it too late for him.

I don't think it is too late for Hogg, as Scotland simply do not have the luxury of being able to dismiss viable players. However, the back row is one area where we have options, so Hogg will have his work cut out to get the nod.

Not too late for Hogg at all in my view.

Another performance like that from Edinburgh and Robinson will have to re-think his options for the AIs. He can't pick players so horribly off form and mis-firing in place of players who are playing well, regardless of the division they play in.

It's always important that international selectors send the right message. Play well and you get picked. Play badly, or less well than your competitors, and you get dropped.

I hope the Edinburgh training session today is nothing less than savage, and that they are still practicing line-outs late into the night. I want to hear of punches thrown in training and plenty of niggle between team mates. I hope Neil Back makes it a genuinely unbearable experience for the players, in the same way that Jim Telfer's forwards used to almost break down in tears at the end of a scrummaging session.

I don't think Glasgow butchered their lead, Jackson was obviously injured somewhere in the build up to the 1st saints try and Monseiur Poite didn't help things with his shall we say lax style of officiating the saints. But quite a number of the Glasgow players put their hands up for selection in the autumn tests.

Grant had a fantastic game against Mujati, Doug Hall was great and certainly deserves a spot on the bench. The ruck inspector himself put in a fine shift and don't we all wish Mike Cusack was Scottish?

In the backs, I feel the whole back line impressed. Notably Pyrgos, Horne and I feel that Pete Murchie impressed at FB, solid under the high ball and got a few nice counters going too. Lamont was back to his rampant self too, first time I've seen him enjoying his rugby at Glasgow! So not all doom and gloom, at least West of the M8...

Glad to see there's more sensible discussion going on here unlike the Edinburgh thread....!

Edinburgh are out of form, Glasgow have at least been consistent. The problem is he ain't going to drop Ford, Cross, Denton, Rennie, Laidlaw, Scott, De luca and Visser all at the same time, even if they aren't playing very well.

As for Edinburgh's training session today, it is a difficult one. On one hand you want them to know it wasn't acceptable, but on the other you do not want to completely destroy their confidence.

I'm not sure a beasting would achieve much, unless it is made known that it will happen again every week until they win.

How do you pick your self up from such a bad performance?

I like Andy Titterell's attitude - every time he has lost with Edinburgh has said on Twitter how disappointed he has been and that he is dying to play again next week to make amends. He's clearly got the right attitude and if everyone in the squad thought like that we'd be winner.