Scotland in the AIs

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Interesting piece in the Herald today, with likely starting team:

Good crop, bad crop: autumn harvest of injuries for Robinson

by Alasdair Reid, Rugby reporter

The teams are barely out of the starting blocks, but already the pace of the season is cranking up. Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS
Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS

Within a couple of weeks, the genteel trot of the Rabo-Direct PRO12 will have changed to the lusty canter of the Heineken Cup. And after that, it really begins to get serious.

Time was when autumn internationals were a welcome distraction from the grind of the domestic season and a chance for some gin-soaked old duffers to say hello to their mates from the colonies. After that, they became a useful tool for swelling the coffers of the home Unions, struggling with the new financial reality of rugby as a professional game. Now, though, their significance is even greater.

For if rugby's international calendar looks like a marathon at times, the November Test period now marks the point when the race becomes a sprint. At stake are world rankings places that will determine the seeding bands for the 2015 World Cup. Get into the top four and you're laughing. Five to eight and you're still comfortable. Anything lower than eighth and you can start to panic.

Scotland are currently ninth. That represents considerable progress – courtesy of three wins on their recent Australasia tour – on the 12th slot, their lowest ever, occupied after this year's Six Nations whitewash, but the law of diminishing returns kicks in fiercely the higher up that ladder you go.

The next step, the one that will have the most critical bearing on their prospects in 2015, is the hardest of all. The rankings are calculated using a formula of mind-addling complexity. And if you can get your head round the principles behind the sums, you have to do them over and over again to allow for all sorts of results, in all sorts of places, by all sorts of margins. It is a job for the very smart or the very sad.

It is probably best not to speculate which category Scotland coach Andy Robinson falls into (he was a maths teacher in a previous life so we can probably take the charitable view) but the scenario will unquestionably occupy his attention over the weeks ahead.

To achieve a top-eight slot, Scotland will almost certainly have to enjoy a solid November series, probably two wins, or possibly a win and a draw, from their games against New Zealand, South Africa and Tonga. At the same time, they will be praying that Ireland and Argentina, seventh and eighth respectively, endure autumns of unremitting misery.

Robinson is likely to name his squad early in the week beginning October 21, with a squad-gathering in St Andrews the week after. So how do the runners and riders shape up? When Robinson's side returned from Australasia three months ago with a trio of wins under their belts, and a host of new players having proven their Test worth, it was a task he would have relished. But things have changed since – and not many for the better.

Let's start with the serious stuff. Since the squad came back, Chris Cusiter, Joe Ansbro and Rob Harley have all been ruled out of autumn matches by long-term injuries. All are front-rank players, although none would be considered a certain start for any or all of the games. Meanwhile, Glasgow props Jon Welsh and Ed Kalman, both of whom gained first caps during the Six Nations, have injuries that mean they will play no part in the forthcoming Tests.

Such things can be expected, and Robinson has been around the Test scene long enough to know it. He also has enough miles on his clock to appreciate that one player's injury is another's golden opportunity. If the conveyor belt of talent is running smoothly the understudies should be ready to step into the gaps. Unfortunately for Scotland, though, its gears have been grinding just lately. Yes, this has been a time of plenty in some positions, but a dearth in other areas.

Take Cusiter's scrum-half berth, for instance. A signature position for Scotland, the country has rarely been short of nippy little blokes who can do the business around the base of the scrum, but with the exception of Greig Laidlaw, now converted to a fly-half, none has really emerged in the past six years. Cusiter, Mike Blair and Rory Lawson have been scrapping over the jersey, and no one has broken into their circle. All very well, but the three are all now north of 30 (surprisingly, Lawson, often seen as the junior member of the group, is the oldest). To complicate matters further, Blair and Lawson both play second-division rugby: Blair in France with Brive, Lawson with England's Newcastle. To complicate the complication, Blair's outings have been limited by a shoulder injury.

Indeed, when not brushing up their language skills, most of Scotland's French contingent have been deepening their knowledge of medical facilities across the channel. Max Evans and Euan Murray have also been struggling recently, as has Johnnie Beattie, whose plan to reignite his career at Montpellier lasted only until he picked up a thigh injury in a pre-season friendly. Alasdair Strokosch, rapidly becoming a cult figure at Perpignan, is the only unqualified success.

Murray can already be ruled out of the first game, against New Zealand, on the basis that it takes place on a Sunday. But things took a turn for the worse when Moray Low picked up what looked like a serious knee injury in Glasgow's win over Zebre on Friday. If Low is ruled out of the November matches then Robinson would have to go pretty far down the pecking order to find another specialist tighthead – or, possibly, consider moving Ryan Grant to the other side of the scrum.

But Robinson has another concern as the autumn programme looms: just how battle-hardened will some of his core players be by the time of that match at Murrayfield on November 11? A number of them – Kelly Brown, Stuart Hogg, Dave Denton and Rory Lamont – could still be said to be in a rehabilitation phase, either just back from injury lay-offs or just about to return. All will be capable of playing by the second weekend in November. But it is still the All Blacks.

Yet there is good news too. While we fret about players being under-prepared, the deepening of the squads at Edinburgh and Glasgow means few of them are likely to be overcooked. And a few lesser lights are starting to show serious form too. Stewart McInally and Grant Gilchrist have been adding some serious grunt to the Edinburgh pack in recent weeks. Tom Ryder and Chris Fusaro have been done the same at Glasgow. Peter Murchie and Henry Pyrgos have looked sharp behind the Warriors' scrum.

So who will be in that team that lines up against the All Blacks?

Barring further injuries, assuming rehab plans continue, and discounting the possibility Robinson will send out a weakened team to protect top players for the Springboks match six days later, you can expect to see something like this: Stuart Hogg; Sean Lamont, Nick De Luca, Matt Scott, Tim Visser; Greig Laidlaw, Rory Lawson. Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Jim Hamilton, Richie Gray, Kelly Brown, Ross Rennie, Dave Denton.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

beshocked wrote:The saffercens thing is just a myth. Normally used by bitter fans who don't like seeing their side smashed.

Did you or did you not ask Edinburgh to play you in Cape Town? Yeh, this Saffacens thing, total myth.....

What have we done to anger the rugby gods? Injuries starting to become a joke, especially at Glasgow. At this rate there'll be no one left for the NZ game, let along Tonga.

Who is out now?

Obviously those in the west aren't as tough as they make out to be!

Well for Glasgow Peter Horne and Byron McGuigan went off injured. The latter not so much of an issue, but think Horne has concussion so that could rule him out for a few weeks.

More worryingly though is the All Blacks result today.
Recon we'll get a lot of backlash from that. NZ looking to get back to winning and try scoring ways. Could be a long afternoon in eh12

No way! I'm not expecting any backlash, I reckon Scotland can put pressure on the all blacks and will have a good advantage if the weather is miserable. If its dry then I would expect the all blacks to win. Scotland need to put a lot of pressure on the AB's and copy what wallabies did today, at the restart boot the ball deep and keep them in their own half.

The weather wasn't great two years ago when the All Blacks came to town and, in any case, I don't think the All Blacks are particularly affected by adverse weather conditions. I didn't manage to catch the game this morning but with our likely contenders to start at stand-off, I doubt we'll have the kicking game to keep the All Blacks pinned down - Laidlaw has no distance and Jackson has no accuracy. Basically, the All Blacks will slaughter us if we kick the ball to them.

Our best chance of winning is keeping it tight and reducing the chance of a turnover. Have Laidlaw at 10 with runners off him and if there's space kick it but if it's covered hold onto it. I'd pick Dunbar over De Luca on current form his physical presence will make him difficult to turnover.

I'd pick:

15.Hogg
14. Tonks
13. Dunbar
12. Scott
11. Visser
10. Laidlaw
9. Pyrgos
8. Denton
7. Rennie
6. Brown
5. Hamilton
4. Gray
3. Cross
2. Ford
1. Grant

How on earth do Ford and Cross get into that team ? Both utterly woeful ! Gray is out injured btw so Kellock should start.

Numbers - tonks defo ain't a winger!

So 21st....whose gonna start instead of cross?? And there's no way he's gonna drop Ford.

Why would you want to drop Ford, let him play himself back into lions contention (and he will)

Cross is a big problem though IMHO, and his competitors

Could we swap Tonks and Hogg around? Reckon Hogg would do well on the wing.

thebluesmancometh wrote:Why would you want to drop Ford, let him play himself back into lions contention (and he will)

Cross is a big problem though IMHO, and his competitors

Because Ford is the most over-rated player in the NH. A pumped up gym monkey who always, always fails to deliver. Baw-bag even made him captain for the last 6 Ns - and boy did he not deliver. Cross also a giant t8t who should never be near an Int jersey never mind playing for Edinburgh. Mov e Ryan Grant over and play Jacobsen - even that would be better. Would much rather have Hall than Ford

Ford is a quality player at his best and plays like an extra flanker, think back to his performances against France and England in the six nations. Hall is in better form at the moment but Ford is undoubtedly a better player, yes in general pick on form but in when it comes to one of our few top class players Ford should start.
I didn't think Gray was definitely out, I thought he was a maybe and anyway I'd have Fraser McKenzie over Kellock.

Major let off for Edinburgh there - should've kept going with the scrum, and then missed the 3 points

Listening to the Edinburgh game, and at the moment Ford isn't doing himself any favours, lineout going to pot again for the second week in a row.

4 lineouts lost already. 3 his fault

We've often bemoaned Scotland for their lack of try scoring prowess but at least they got points on the board. Unreal to think that Edinburgh are heading towards 2 games played and 0 points scored. Such pathetic preparation for the AI's.

Robinson must really be looking forward to these internationals. Both pro sides failing to deliver, edinburgh on an epic scale.

Front row will be a mess, with only ryan grant really playing well. Picking between hall and ford really is dire at the moment. Ford a decent player playing appaulingly, and hall an average player being slightly above average (his throwing wasn't all that against ulster).

Not happy with scottish rugby at the moment.

This sums up my feelings towards Scottish rugby at the moment http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lwf8uaoPCB1qbrfrz.gif

GLove39 wrote:This sums up my feelings towards Scottish rugby at the moment http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lwf8uaoPCB1qbrfrz.gif

I'm at the point where I don't care enough about Scotland to even do that. Edinburgh and Glasgow are as poor as they've been in quite some time and Scotland can barely field a match-day squad, let alone one that will trouble top-tier opponents. If anything, I'd welcome Scotland no longer competing so we don't have to put up with the inevitable farce the awaits us.

Trying to think of the last time we were going into the Autumn tests in a worse state.

I bet the exiles playing in winning teams can't wait to join up with the Edinburgh and Glasgow failures...

I can't even beleive I'm saying this, Hooker is now an area of great concern. Ford's accuracy in the last 2 games in the line out has been woeful.

Behind him we have an injured Pat MacArthur and Dougie Hall!

As for tighthead in the NZ game we have more trouble. Since Reverand Murray won't play on Sunday, The Good Doctor Cross is kidding himself if he thinks he is a test standard 3 and the Weagie contingent have been taking injury lessons from Rory Lamont.

At lock it gets worse with doubts hanging over Gray.

At least the Backrow should be good with Barclay and Brown both playing very well.

as for Scrum half who knows how Blair is playing in the wilds of France.....

Fly Half? Laidlaw is injured and was unconvincing when he wasn't. Jackson is at least showing some form.

Centres? Scott and NDL are the incumbents but they aren't looking red hot.

Back 3 at least might have some scoring threats in the form of Visser and Hogg, as for the other wing....

answers on a post card please.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:

beshocked wrote:The saffercens thing is just a myth. Normally used by bitter fans who don't like seeing their side smashed.

Did you or did you not ask Edinburgh to play you in Cape Town? Yeh, this Saffacens thing, total myth.....

Saracens played a home game in Brussels. Does make them Belgian?

How about asking Munster to play in New York? Does that mean Saracens are American?



Anyway back to the topic.

You Scots shouldn't be feeling so sorry for yourselves. Be a bit more bullish.

Look at the AIs as a fresh slate.

1st decision by Andy Robinson should be to pick Kelly Brown as captain. He's been in good form for a side doing well.

Hopefully he and other guys like Barclay can raise the confidence and spirits of the other guys.

Scotland do not have a bad side. You have a pack that should be able to match most sides in the world. The backline is a work in progress but with the likes of Hogg and Visser you should see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Feed off the form of the backrow.

Scotland's last results internationally were good. Don't look at Glasgow and Edinburgh's form. They are a separate entity from Scotland.

Beshocked - I've long argued that Brown should be made captain. The consensus on here seemed to be that the captain should be playing in Scotland, therefore at the time Ford was the only obvious choice, but in my view Ford is now in the same camp as Kellock - not guaranteed to play. Once Pat MacArthur is fit again, provided he can throw one ball in twenty straight, he'll be in the side ahead of Ford.

I do also share the view that club form (as a collective) need not necessarily dictate international form. On many occasions Scotland has played well on the back of the pro sides being awful (and vice versa). You have to look to individuals who are playing well, despite the mess around them. Sadly there are few on those at the moment, but Ryan Grant, Jim Hamilton, Al Kellock and Kelly Brown are a group of form players who can hopefully take the pack up a notch, and although deeply unconvincing in the HC so far this season, Visser has been on great form otherwise, NDL hasn't been too awful, and Stuart Hogg looked pretty bright in otherwise horrid conditions for a full back on Friday.

The other bonus for Scotland is expectations. There are none. Historically, that's when we play our best. Straws. Clutching. At.

Exactly FES. Feed off that.

Just make sure low expectations doesn't mean low confidence.

Brown was picked by Andy Robinson but he got injured. Hopefully he gives the captaincy to Brown in the AIs.

As I said Scotland are not a bad side. You just need to build the belief.

Who is up first?

I'm not sure it would be the best of ideas to make Brown captain straight off. This is his first international game in over a year, it is against the All Blacks, and although he has captained Sarries on the odd occasion being Scotland captain is a big step up in terms of off the field duties.

Ideally you'd give him the AIs just to get back into international rugby with the view of making him captain in the 6N.

However,

The natural interim would be Ford, but equally I think he would benefit from not being captain so he can concentrate on feckin throwing straight!!!

Tough decision I think.

Make Brown captain, says I.

I think there has to be a symbolic line in the sand drawn after the recent HC results, and the return of a star from outside the Pro12 setup might be just the thing. I was of the opinion before KB was injured that he was our best and most consistent player, and can only wonder at how we would have performed in the 6 Nations if he had been present, let alone captain. He's coming from a winning team, with confidence. Ford is coming from a losing team with no confidence. On the face of that alone, I'd make Brown captain.

It's fair to say that Ford's form has been poor, but he's still the best hooker we've had in years. I wouldn't drop him, even if MacArthur was fit. Relieving him of the captaincy (so long as it's handled correctly) could be a good move, particularly if it's in favour of Brown, who Ford was always understood to be deputising for.

If the only downside that I can think of for making Brown captain is that he might get drowned in the 'significance' of the moment (i.e. first match back, first as captain, against the ABs...) then I can live with that. Kelly has shown himself to be pretty much impurturbable in the past.

IanBru wrote:Make Brown captain, says I.

I think there has to be a symbolic line in the sand drawn after the recent HC results, and the return of a star from outside the Pro12 setup might be just the thing. I was of the opinion before KB was injured that he was our best and most consistent player, and can only wonder at how we would have performed in the 6 Nations if he had been present, let alone captain. He's coming from a winning team, with confidence. Ford is coming from a losing team with no confidence. On the face of that alone, I'd make Brown captain.

It's fair to say that Ford's form has been poor, but he's still the best hooker we've had in years. I wouldn't drop him, even if MacArthur was fit. Relieving him of the captaincy (so long as it's handled correctly) could be a good move, particularly if it's in favour of Brown, who Ford was always understood to be deputising for.

If the only downside that I can think of for making Brown captain is that he might get drowned in the 'significance' of the moment (i.e. first match back, first as captain, against the ABs...) then I can live with that. Kelly has shown himself to be pretty much impurturbable in the past.

Don't forget it would be 50th cap for KB too. What better way to pump a player -

AR: Here's the captaincy on your 50th cap vs the ABs.

KB:Wow!

Ford's throwing in has always been an issue, going back to before he was called up for the Lions. I still think he is a good candidate for captain but a hooker who can't throw straight is as useful as jubblies on a bull. On the other hand, I think Kelly Brown could be the sort of player who is burdened by captaincy as I've always viewed him as the clichéd Richard Hill-type flanker, i.e. goes about his business quietly, doing the small jobs and whose value to the team is only really realised when he isn't there.

Had Barclay's form not nosedived when he was 'rested' for six months going into the RWC, he would have been my choice to be Scotland captain going forward. As is, I think he would be a good captain but as second/third-choice open-side and with a couple of fit number-eights available, I don't think it's right to include him out of position.

Jim Hamilton could be a shout as long as he doesn't get yellow/red carded every other week...

With all the doom and gloom surrounding Scottish rugby at the moment I've been racking my brain to think of any positives. So here goes.

Scottish club sides are not underperforming. Glasgow are sitting 3rd in the Pro12 and took it to Aviva leaders Saints last weekend. We would have given Ulster more of a game if Horne had his kicking boots on. But that's ok, players can't be expected to be perfect every week. They're allowed to have an off day, they're only human. I know Edinburgh have struggled recently but there are still some positives to take out of their games. Add the performance of the ex-pats and it's not all bad.

Strokosch has established himself as a cult figure in France after some very good performances.
Beattie is back and looking hungry at Montpellier.
Ally Hogg looks like he’s been playing himself back into contention at Newcastle.
Brown is in good form for Saracens.
Pyrgos is looking much better than last year.
Grant, Kellock, Barclay and Fusaro are all playing well.
Harley is back from injury.
Dunbar hasn’t missed a game this season and is looking good.
Hoggy is back and fit.
Tonks has been a great signing and will surely be in the squad.
Visser is on fire in the Pro12.
Denton is back and fit.

People on here are making it sound like Scottish rugby is going down the pan and we have no chance. There are plenty of positives to take into the AIs. There is a good team of players available. The only problem we have is Robbo won’t pick them!

Thanks for the positivity Scot Abroad.

I'd argue with you when you say there have been positive aspects in Edinburgh's performances - the last two games there have literally been none. And I genuinely mean none!

RDW_Scotland wrote:I'd argue with you when you say there have been positive aspects in Edinburgh's performances - the last two games there have literally been none. And I genuinely mean none!

I suppose one positive is that us members of the de Luca hate club will have plenty of other players to curse over the next few weeks.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Thanks for the positivity Scot Abroad.

I'd argue with you when you say there have been positive aspects in Edinburgh's performances - the last two games there have literally been none. And I genuinely mean none!

Agreed, Edinburgh have been monulmentaly garbage.

Scot Abroad wrote:With all the doom and gloom surrounding Scottish rugby at the moment I've been racking my brain to think of any positives. So here goes.

Scottish club sides are not underperforming. Glasgow are sitting 3rd in the Pro12 and took it to Aviva leaders Saints last weekend. We would have given Ulster more of a game if Horne had his kicking boots on. But that's ok, players can't be expected to be perfect every week. They're allowed to have an off day, they're only human. I know Edinburgh have struggled recently but there are still some positives to take out of their games. Add the performance of the ex-pats and it's not all bad.

Strokosch has established himself as a cult figure in France after some very good performances.
Beattie is back and looking hungry at Montpellier.
Ally Hogg looks like he’s been playing himself back into contention at Newcastle.
Brown is in good form for Saracens.
Pyrgos is looking much better than last year.
Grant, Kellock, Barclay and Fusaro are all playing well.
Harley is back from injury.
Dunbar hasn’t missed a game this season and is looking good.
Hoggy is back and fit.
Tonks has been a great signing and will surely be in the squad.
Visser is on fire in the Pro12.
Denton is back and fit.

People on here are making it sound like Scottish rugby is going down the pan and we have no chance. There are plenty of positives to take into the AIs. There is a good team of players available. The only problem we have is Robbo won’t pick them!

+1

Excellent post giving some form of reality. These players (the same ones who played down under) can't become completely hopeless overnight. Something is going on at Edinburgh which is obviously having a huge impact on the player's mindset.

Different coach, conditions, pressures etc over the AI's might be in order to re-spark the quality levels?

Nice one Scot Abroad. You've cheered me up already.

Kelly would be my choice for captain.

Guys I've created a thread on mossy's core values he's made with the sru - worth a look if you've not seen them yet! A good rugby cheer up!

In the rugby section

Cryptoyourisan wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:I'd argue with you when you say there have been positive aspects in Edinburgh's performances - the last two games there have literally been none. And I genuinely mean none!

I suppose one positive is that us members of the de Luca hate club will have plenty of other players to curse over the next few weeks.

The funny thing is De Luca is probably the only edinburgh player who you cant fault for effort the past two games. He's looked like he wants to poke a nuns eyes out with frustration at what hes getting served up by the pack.

I think someone else said it above, when Ford plays well, no one else in Scotland comes close to him. Forget about his lineout throwing and youve got a massive hooker who has no right to be as mobile as he is. He has a far bigger presence than Dougie Hall or Scott Lawson around the park, and that miss on ROG aside, his error rate in loose play is very good. As far as scrummaging goes, I know hes often part of a powder puff pack, but i cant recall ever seeing him be the cause of a bad scrum. Id love to see him play for a proper scrummaging team sometime.

The problem is, when the lineout goes, everything else is irrelevent. Its not like hes consistantly average, the frustrating thing is that he swings from immaculate to dreadfull between games. Remember that for about 18 months post lions tour his throwing was outstanding, every time. It seems to just come and go in cycles. People are often so quick to jump on Fords throwing, but when they suggest Dougie Hall as an alternative, a hooker who couldnt hit a barn door until about a season ago, its quite funny.

Hall may not have been able to hit a barn door a few seasons ago but Skipper Ford cannot hit a cow's erse with a banjo now. That really is quite funny - unlike you!

21st is really good at going mental about players but offers very little alternative suggestions.

We're literally stuck with Cross - there's no one else.

And as for Dougie Hall over Ford -

We're really in the crap if that's how bad things have got.

Hall has made a career out of bad lineout throwing and offers half as much as Ford in the loose!

Ford just needs a rocket up his erse

im telling ee, the best we can hope for is injuring all the AB props in the first 5 minutes and relying on uncontested scrums thus maximising our semi-useless but quite mobile props - problem solved!

RDW_Scotland wrote:21st is really good at going mental about players but offers very little alternative suggestions.

904 posts and 900 of them are just some insult at Robinson.

Tramptastic wrote:im telling ee, the best we can hope for is injuring all the AB props in the first 5 minutes and relying on uncontested scrums thus maximising our semi-useless but quite mobile props - problem solved!

Nope, the best we can hope for is to find out Cusack has a Scottish Granny

Sean Maitland has signed for Glasgow...

On my good God! ASBO you've finally done it!

WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT???????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.glasgowwarriors.org/news/5166-crusaders-star-maitland-joins-warrior-nation

Absolutely incredible news.

Someone needs to start a new thread on this!

Wow, just imagine back 3 of
Hogg
Maitland
Visser

I was phoning my parents while walking along Sauchiehall street, and my Dad told my - "Did you hear, Glasgow have signed some Kiwi... Sean something..." to which I replied "Not Sean Maitland?! NOOOOO F********ING WAAAAY"

I got some looks.