Scotland in the AIs

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Interesting piece in the Herald today, with likely starting team:

Good crop, bad crop: autumn harvest of injuries for Robinson

by Alasdair Reid, Rugby reporter

The teams are barely out of the starting blocks, but already the pace of the season is cranking up. Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS
Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November series of Test matches Photograph: SNS Andy Robinson will have much to ponder as many of the players who took part in the successful tour of Australasia could be major doubts for the November Tests Photograph: SNS

Within a couple of weeks, the genteel trot of the Rabo-Direct PRO12 will have changed to the lusty canter of the Heineken Cup. And after that, it really begins to get serious.

Time was when autumn internationals were a welcome distraction from the grind of the domestic season and a chance for some gin-soaked old duffers to say hello to their mates from the colonies. After that, they became a useful tool for swelling the coffers of the home Unions, struggling with the new financial reality of rugby as a professional game. Now, though, their significance is even greater.

For if rugby's international calendar looks like a marathon at times, the November Test period now marks the point when the race becomes a sprint. At stake are world rankings places that will determine the seeding bands for the 2015 World Cup. Get into the top four and you're laughing. Five to eight and you're still comfortable. Anything lower than eighth and you can start to panic.

Scotland are currently ninth. That represents considerable progress – courtesy of three wins on their recent Australasia tour – on the 12th slot, their lowest ever, occupied after this year's Six Nations whitewash, but the law of diminishing returns kicks in fiercely the higher up that ladder you go.

The next step, the one that will have the most critical bearing on their prospects in 2015, is the hardest of all. The rankings are calculated using a formula of mind-addling complexity. And if you can get your head round the principles behind the sums, you have to do them over and over again to allow for all sorts of results, in all sorts of places, by all sorts of margins. It is a job for the very smart or the very sad.

It is probably best not to speculate which category Scotland coach Andy Robinson falls into (he was a maths teacher in a previous life so we can probably take the charitable view) but the scenario will unquestionably occupy his attention over the weeks ahead.

To achieve a top-eight slot, Scotland will almost certainly have to enjoy a solid November series, probably two wins, or possibly a win and a draw, from their games against New Zealand, South Africa and Tonga. At the same time, they will be praying that Ireland and Argentina, seventh and eighth respectively, endure autumns of unremitting misery.

Robinson is likely to name his squad early in the week beginning October 21, with a squad-gathering in St Andrews the week after. So how do the runners and riders shape up? When Robinson's side returned from Australasia three months ago with a trio of wins under their belts, and a host of new players having proven their Test worth, it was a task he would have relished. But things have changed since – and not many for the better.

Let's start with the serious stuff. Since the squad came back, Chris Cusiter, Joe Ansbro and Rob Harley have all been ruled out of autumn matches by long-term injuries. All are front-rank players, although none would be considered a certain start for any or all of the games. Meanwhile, Glasgow props Jon Welsh and Ed Kalman, both of whom gained first caps during the Six Nations, have injuries that mean they will play no part in the forthcoming Tests.

Such things can be expected, and Robinson has been around the Test scene long enough to know it. He also has enough miles on his clock to appreciate that one player's injury is another's golden opportunity. If the conveyor belt of talent is running smoothly the understudies should be ready to step into the gaps. Unfortunately for Scotland, though, its gears have been grinding just lately. Yes, this has been a time of plenty in some positions, but a dearth in other areas.

Take Cusiter's scrum-half berth, for instance. A signature position for Scotland, the country has rarely been short of nippy little blokes who can do the business around the base of the scrum, but with the exception of Greig Laidlaw, now converted to a fly-half, none has really emerged in the past six years. Cusiter, Mike Blair and Rory Lawson have been scrapping over the jersey, and no one has broken into their circle. All very well, but the three are all now north of 30 (surprisingly, Lawson, often seen as the junior member of the group, is the oldest). To complicate matters further, Blair and Lawson both play second-division rugby: Blair in France with Brive, Lawson with England's Newcastle. To complicate the complication, Blair's outings have been limited by a shoulder injury.

Indeed, when not brushing up their language skills, most of Scotland's French contingent have been deepening their knowledge of medical facilities across the channel. Max Evans and Euan Murray have also been struggling recently, as has Johnnie Beattie, whose plan to reignite his career at Montpellier lasted only until he picked up a thigh injury in a pre-season friendly. Alasdair Strokosch, rapidly becoming a cult figure at Perpignan, is the only unqualified success.

Murray can already be ruled out of the first game, against New Zealand, on the basis that it takes place on a Sunday. But things took a turn for the worse when Moray Low picked up what looked like a serious knee injury in Glasgow's win over Zebre on Friday. If Low is ruled out of the November matches then Robinson would have to go pretty far down the pecking order to find another specialist tighthead – or, possibly, consider moving Ryan Grant to the other side of the scrum.

But Robinson has another concern as the autumn programme looms: just how battle-hardened will some of his core players be by the time of that match at Murrayfield on November 11? A number of them – Kelly Brown, Stuart Hogg, Dave Denton and Rory Lamont – could still be said to be in a rehabilitation phase, either just back from injury lay-offs or just about to return. All will be capable of playing by the second weekend in November. But it is still the All Blacks.

Yet there is good news too. While we fret about players being under-prepared, the deepening of the squads at Edinburgh and Glasgow means few of them are likely to be overcooked. And a few lesser lights are starting to show serious form too. Stewart McInally and Grant Gilchrist have been adding some serious grunt to the Edinburgh pack in recent weeks. Tom Ryder and Chris Fusaro have been done the same at Glasgow. Peter Murchie and Henry Pyrgos have looked sharp behind the Warriors' scrum.

So who will be in that team that lines up against the All Blacks?

Barring further injuries, assuming rehab plans continue, and discounting the possibility Robinson will send out a weakened team to protect top players for the Springboks match six days later, you can expect to see something like this: Stuart Hogg; Sean Lamont, Nick De Luca, Matt Scott, Tim Visser; Greig Laidlaw, Rory Lawson. Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Jim Hamilton, Richie Gray, Kelly Brown, Ross Rennie, Dave Denton.

Reckon King Salmond got in on the act to use the strip to try and make sure that Scottish people see a saltire every 30 seconds by the time the referendum comes?

I can't recall any strip as cringe worthy as this effort.

I think the tradionalists are always going to have a problem with new designs as the outcrys come everytime a new kit is launched but the big market for buying kits especially coming up towards christmas time will be kids and teenagers and the new kit is a design they are going to like.
I really don't see the problem with the new kit.

EST wrote:I can't recall any strip as cringe worthy as this effort.

really, you don't remember the bright orange kit from the 99 world cup?

You can still make a marketable kit that people will want to buy that doesn't look like a pile of horse crap.

There's no point in kids wanting to buy it if lots of adults hate it!

Majestic83 wrote:

EST wrote:I can't recall any strip as cringe worthy as this effort.

really, you don't remember the bright orange kit from the 99 world cup?

I unfortunately do, it's certainly right up there; but I think this tops it.

I think if they did away with the flag on the arms it wouldn't be as bad. Having the flag on the stomach is fine but it just looks stupid on the shoulders as well.

From a non-Scottish perspective, at first glance it looks horiffic. RDW, I'd disagree, I'd say it actually would be alright having it on the shoulders, it's the 'flag around the waist' look that makes it cheap IMO. Also, the link posted above with Lamont, Denton and Ford wearing it as part of the whole kit makes it look better...? But trying to incorporate that shirt as a fan with jeans or whatever...na.

Not sure why we can't just have a traditional navy blue rugby top, with a white one for our second strip.

I'm obviously very boring, but I wouldn't be seen dead in that thing. It'll be interesting to see if the All Blacks can contain the sniggering during the Haka. The Scotland team may as well out there in pink dressing gowns and furry slippers.

Reckon it's a coincidence that they chose Omni to put the massive photos of the topless players up- a place that is surrounded by gay bars??

On a serious note though it is great to see some prominent advertising and a clear marketing focus from the SRU - we often complain there is a lack of rugby coverage in Scotland and that will definitely get noticed in Edinburgh!

I'll say it again, the flag on the front looks like a target for someone doing corrective hernia surgery for the first time. It's just horribly unsophisticated*.

*He said, picking his nose and drinking builders tea from a mug that says "I got Boned in the Museum of Natural History".

funnyExiledScot wrote:Not sure why we can't just have a traditional navy blue rugby top, with a white one for our second strip.

Exactamundo!

It's almost as bad as our current home kit. With the exception of the kit from 2009-2011, we've not had a decent one in 10 years. I don't think we can really blame Canterbury seeing as England and South Africa's kits are pretty smart. I can understand England going for a random colour this time round seeing as the only team they should need it against is Fiji, although they'll probably wear it as a marketing ploy for at least one other game. Maybe it's just a sign of how unprofitable Scottish rugby has become that kit manufacturers can expect us to accept monstrosities such as this and Glasgow's kits.

I quite liked the 2006 addition http://www.gettyimagesgallery.com/Images/Thumbnails/1310/131055.jpg
Although not the horrible away version with yellow and red sleeve bits

Who in their right mind would buy/wear that crap ? Someone on an acid flashback designed that - almost as bad as the sub-Jackson Pollock Edinburgh effort of a few seasons ago !

The utterly pathetic Hootsman (online) even managed to confuse David Denton with Richie Gray when 'modelling' these cruddy jerseys.

All in all a giant to the SRU for this.

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:

The utterly pathetic Hootsman (online) even managed to confuse David Denton with Richie Gray when 'modelling' these cruddy jerseys.

You've really got to wonder who the Scotsman picture editor is. You'd think he'd never even heard of rugby as a sport the amount of mistakes they make.

I think a new kit is always going to split opinion. There has been comments on threads before on here about the scotland kits being too boring and being like every other nations so they've brought something out that is a little different and people are still complaining so their never going to win.
I've been asking people at works opinion today since it was launched and there are far more people liking it than disliking it so far!

Strange cause everyone at my work and plenty people have commented on Facebook about how mingin it is! Some funny comments on the Edinburgh rugby article post about i.

But there are also a lot of comments on facebook with people saying they like it so it isn't as one sided as is being made out to be!
I'll admit it's alot different from previous strips but it is still mostly white with the saltire on it, whats the problem with that. As I said the SRU are never going to win as people complain when the strips are too similar to other nations but when they do something bold and different they get slated for that too.
If people don't like it they don't need to buy it but also remember the players get input into the kit design so they must be happy with it!!

It's too big a departure from the traditional colours. Too much advertising up top and even though the ABs can play in their own strip against that, I'd rather wear white and see the traditional strip.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:It's too big a departure from the traditional colours. Too much advertising up top and even though the ABs can play in their own strip against that, I'd rather wear white and see the traditional strip.

It's the new change strip Scotland have brought out so the normal Scotland one is still the dark blue with the gold trim!

Ah cheers. That's a relief. Then the change strip is an improvement on that grey which turned into a farce against NZ's teal.

I remember that game, cheeky commentator "...for those of you watching the game on a black and white tv set, Scotland are the team going backwards!"

The new strip is an abomination. Trully trully awful.

One of the issue with the new top is, did anyone who designed it take into account the average size of supporters and where their beer bellies are going to go

That flag is going to be STRETCHED

It also looks like a corest

Should we be doing some removal work wearing this - heavy lifting?


I will not be getting one and will remain in my 1990 Scotland shirt made in real material

I did note that Alan Jacobson was mysteriously not one of the Scotland players told to pose shirtless for the official launch campaign.

George Carlin wrote:I did note that Alan Jacobson was mysteriously not one of the Scotland players told to pose shirtless for the official launch campaign.

What are you talking about, the saltire appears to be slimming around the waist area. I think Chunk may have had some design input.

Assuming there are no more injuries, I'd predict:

15 - Hogg
14 - Lamont
13 - De Luca
12 - Scott
11 - Visser
10 - Laidlaw
9 - Blair
8 - Brown
7 - Rennie
6 - Denton
5 - Hamilton
4 - Gray
3 - Cross
2 - Ford
1 - Grant

16 - Lawson, 17 - Jacobson, 18 - Kellock, 19 - Strokosch, 20 - Lawson, 21 - Weir, 22 - Evans

That's not a bad side...but you won't beat NZ.

mowgli wrote:That's not a bad side...but you won't beat NZ.

Of course we won't , but at least we should be able to give them a game

Any outsiders for inclusion in the squad? Our shortage of no8s should see Ali Hogg included

6 Brown/Strokosch/Denton
7 Rennie/Barclay
8 Denton/Hogg/Brown

I suppose you could put Vernon in there but he's too lightweight for the ABs

Ryan Wilson was on at 8 but he is another who has not responded well to the coaching promptings of Wee Gregor this season - one of many I hasten to add - in fact the whole side tbh !

Scot Abroad wrote:Any outsiders for inclusion in the squad? Our shortage of no8s should see Ali Hogg included

6 Brown/Strokosch/Denton
7 Rennie/Barclay
8 Denton/Hogg/Brown

I suppose you could put Vernon in there but he's too lightweight for the ABs

Alternatively we could just admit that he is simply not international standard

Why do folk think Vernon too lightweight? It has never held him back when I have seen him play

With the crop of players we have now compared to 2010's, we should be capable of securing a close defeat. If we were to be thrashed again it would be unacceptable quite frankly.

Our backline is far stronger now and our pack is a lot better in my opinion, apart from our "proplem"

The only way I can see us winning is by somehow only have one or two unforced errors or fumbles, defending like we did against SA 2010 and then some more, preventing NZ from pulling off any of their set piece and somehow providing enough quickball to unleash visser, hogg etc.

TJ wrote:Why do folk think Vernon too lightweight? It has never held him back when I have seen him play

I'd disagree with that - if the game is fast open and loose he's fine, but let's face it the games aren't often like that and he lacks the beef to get over the gain line and put the hits in.

RDW_Scotland wrote:

TJ wrote:Why do folk think Vernon too lightweight? It has never held him back when I have seen him play

I'd disagree with that - if the game is fast open and loose he's fine, but let's face it the games aren't often like that and he lacks the beef to get over the gain line and put the hits in.

He's not been in very good form at Sale for a season and a bit

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Scot Abroad wrote:Any outsiders for inclusion in the squad? Our shortage of no8s should see Ali Hogg included

6 Brown/Strokosch/Denton
7 Rennie/Barclay
8 Denton/Hogg/Brown

I suppose you could put Vernon in there but he's too lightweight for the ABs

Alternatively we could just admit that he is simply not international standard

Happy to confirm that.

George Carlin wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Scot Abroad wrote:Any outsiders for inclusion in the squad? Our shortage of no8s should see Ali Hogg included

6 Brown/Strokosch/Denton
7 Rennie/Barclay
8 Denton/Hogg/Brown

I suppose you could put Vernon in there but he's too lightweight for the ABs

Alternatively we could just admit that he is simply not international standard

Happy to confirm that.

i second that

for a no 8 he gets turned over far to easy and does not make enough yards, cracking 7s player but
definitely not good enough for 15s.
I'd rather see Ali Hogg back in the team, playing really well this season albeit in the english championship but has always played
well for Scotland and certainly knows his way to the tryline, 10 tries in just under 50 tests, not a bad record for a back row, probably
put him as the highest try scorer out of the current team.

Still have no idea why Hogg has been left out for so many years now. He's a great player and is the definition of being a good "rugby player" - he's got a brain on him

I think there must have been some sort of a fall out between him and Robinson, I can't really recall Hogg ever having a dip in form at international level and the last few tests he played for Scotland he played pretty well.
He's still only 29 so has a good few years left in him.

Majestic83 wrote:I think there must have been some sort of a fall out between him and Robinson, I can't really recall Hogg ever having a dip in form at international level and the last few tests he played for Scotland he played pretty well.
He's still only 29 so has a good few years left in him.

Hogg was pretty average for Edinburgh when he came back from that injury lay-off, although he wasn't really given that much time to find form (Barclay was gash for most of last season but got another year at Glasgow). It's a shame because I thought he would have made the Lions tour in 2009 had his form from 2005-2008 continued.

Problem with Hogg is that he isn't quite big enough to be a top class 8, not hard enough and destructive enough for 6 and is too slow for 7!

He is great 'rugby player' but doesn't quite fit the mold of a standard player in those positions.

Was he really that slow. Remember he was drafted into the 7's squad a few years ago

That was when he was coming back from injury

RDW_Scotland wrote:Problem with Hogg is that he isn't quite big enough to be a top class 8, not hard enough and destructive enough for 6 and is too slow for 7!

He is great 'rugby player' but doesn't quite fit the mold of a standard player in those positions.

So Robinson played Barclay and Brown out of position rather than looking to build depth. Pretty much the same as not calling up Houston or King and picking Sean Lamont at centre a couple of years ago. It's really helped the team out in the long run.

Riskysports wrote:Was he really that slow. Remember he was drafted into the 7's squad a few years ago

That was when he was coming back from injury

If you saw him play 7s back then you'd know the answer to that question! He bulked up a lot on hos early days and lost a lot of his pace

said it before and I'll say it again.

Hogg (ali) is one of the worst treated Scotland players out there. He has always given 100% in the navy blue and why he kept being dropped still beggers belief!

If he can get a recall, good on him I say.

And as for too small for an 8???

Newcastle Falcons director of rugby Dean Richards believes that former Scotland loose forward Ally Hogg deserves a recall to the Test arena after an absence of three seasons following a series of impressive performances that have helped the North-east side move to the top of the Championship, England’s second-tier club competition.

Richards said: “I talked to Ally about this [not being picked by Scotland] and it would be one of my goals get him a few more caps. Having looked at him play, I think he deserves it.

“Ally has been outstanding for us this year, he really has. He's just a great footballer, and he understands the game extremely well. I don't think people appreciate the work that he does put in. He's a natural leader as well and I think he has done extremely well here.

“He's got a lot of caps [48] already and he's still a young lad. I rate him very highly. The thing about him is that he can play any position in the back row and adapt to each of them really well. His understanding of the game and what is required is second to none.”




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/9556470/Scotlands-Chris-Cusiter-to-miss-November-Tests-v-New-Zealand-South-Africa-and-Tonga.html

Height: 1.91 m (6' 3")
Weight: 109 kg (17 st 2 lb)

Seems big enough to me

OK he's not overlysmall for an 8, but compare him to the new generation of Dave Denton at 6ft 5 and 115 kg.

Don't get me wrong I'd have him in my squad over Vernon at the very least and probably Ryan Wilson too!