Shanghai Thread

[The Special Juan]

First topic message reminder :

Draw here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Shanghai_Rolex_Masters_%E2%80%93_Singles

Is it just me or is the court painfully slow?

[Josiah Maiestas]

It was best that Berdych won, Tsonga wasn't going to beat Djoko tomorrow with his 6 straight losses. Berd is too good in tie breakers.

[The Special Juan]

Bit of a mismatch if it's Federer v Stepanek tomorrow.... Roger won't stand a chance!!

[Josiah Maiestas]

Losing a set to Stepanek? Oh dear Murray.

[The Special Juan]

I know. Imagine a top player losing a set to Stepanek . Who'd have thought?

[lydian]

Berdy must be a shoe-in for WTF surely? 9th placed Tipsarevic is 1,200 pts away...that cant be gained. Tipsy could catch Tsonga but he'll have to do very well at Paris and Tsonga probably lose early.

WTF is all but confirmed for the following based on race points given, have included down to 15th place so we can see who has a chance of moving up. Points also reflect current position in Shanghai.

1 Novak Djokovic SRB 10590
2 Roger Federer SUI 8985
3 Andy Murray GBR 7090
4 Rafael Nadal ESP 6795
5 David Ferrer ESP 4780

World Tour Finals Qualification Cut 4375

6 Tomas Berdych CZE 4080
7 Juan Martin Del Potro ARG 3420
8 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 3295
9 Janko Tipsarevic SRB 2810
10 Nicolas Almagro ESP 2425
11 Richard Gasquet FRA 2370
12 Juan Monaco ARG 2340
13 Milos Raonic CAN 2325
14 Marin Cilic CRO 2150
15 John Isner USA 2055

[The Special Juan]

I don't see either Nadal or Del Potro making it so Nicolas, your time is now!

[Josiah Maiestas]

Murrays first serve percentages are truly trainwrecked.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Stepanek a true 1 set connoisseur. Back to picking up bins in his day job.

[The Special Juan]

Maybe not

Did Stepanek spit on the line?

[Josiah Maiestas]

Stepanek outworking Murray for the break in set 3. Serving this entire match has been a messy struggle for him.

[lags72]

Stepanek a true 1 set connoisseur. Back to picking up bins in his day job.

Seems like he picks up a lot more dollars than bins.

In fact over a million so far in 2012 alone, doubles & singles prize money combined

A pretty nice day job I'd say ........

Where do I sign ?

[Josiah Maiestas]

Stepanek a true 1 set connoisseur. Back to picking up bins in his day job.

Seems like he picks up a lot more dollars than bins.

In fact over a million so far in 2012 alone, doubles & singles prize money combined

A pretty nice day job I'd say ........

Where do I sign ?

Earns all that money and still didn't get any botox?

Weirdo.

[JuliusHMarx]

Isn't the other way round? Not using botox is normal and using botox is weird

[The Special Juan]

Murray really isn't well. I expect Federer to give him a rather one-sided game tomorrow.

[LuvSports!]

6-3 murray

[Josiah Maiestas]

Isn't the other way round? Not using botox is normal and using botox is weird

Wanting to improve yourself and looking classy is weird? Whatever.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Cilic has been playing well for months don't look past him yet he nearly had 2 set lead over Andy remember. Close 3 setter is what I foresee.

[lydian]

Cilic normally relies on his opponents to kick line judge's shins to win titles...

[lags72]

Careful .... you do realise you mustn't mention Queensgate .......

[Josiah Maiestas]

Pusher tennis again paying off over aggressive. Shanghai is a new threat to clay.

[Calder106]

Murray really isn't well. I expect Federer to give him a rather one-sided game tomorrow.

Didn't see the match. Do you mean he was ill or just not playng well ?

[Danny_1982]

Murray really isn't well. I expect Federer to give him a rather one-sided game tomorrow.

Didn't see the match. Do you mean he was ill or just not playng well ?

Is he still coughing his lungs out every 2 minutes then?

It didn't impinge his movement yesterday though. Is it worse today?

I hope he's alright for tomorrow, I'm hoping to watch a fit and confident Murray v a fit and confident Federer.

[lags72]

Djokovic the big favourite for the title here in my book, and to end 2012 in style overall.

[lydian]

Yes, when we say Haas is doing well we have to caveat that - he's not generally pushing the top top guys in the big events.

Who was doing better as a 34 yr old - Agassi or Haas?

Agree Novak looks shoe-in here...and for #1 soon as well.
If Djoko wins here and Fed loses in SF, Novak will be 195 points behind.
From a race perspective he'll be nearly 2,300 pts ahead.
Given the points to gain/lose for rest of year he could end the year a long way ahead and be hard to catch next year by anyone. I see Novak at the top for quite some time now...could be 2-3 years.
He's on 53 weeks total...we could be adding another 150 or so to that.

[lags72]

I agree that Novak will more than likely be the target man once more in 2013, and it's all about how well he handles being the hunted (again) rather than the hunter.

It will be interesting to see whether Rafa can impose himself quickly on coming back. After previous lay-offs he has been pretty impressive as regards speed of return to top form.

This time it's more important than ever for Rafa : he has 6600 points to defend in just the five month spell between season opener in January and RG

Other than Andy M, I can't really see any (sustained) threats to these two over next couple of years or so ..... (he said confidently .... )

[bogbrush]

Hard to look forward reliably that far, absolutely anything can happen.

[lydian]

Of course BB - but you of all people like to speculate

Lets looks at the next 2-3 years:
- Djokovic is strong across all surfaces and at peak of his powers
- Murray is strong off clay
- Nadal is strong clay, wont be killing himself on HC amymore
- Roger will start to lose points more next year, just cant see him at the very top anymore
- No youngsters coming through as yet...

I dont see who will push him for #1 consistently, do you?
The question is can Murray gain more points per year than him...? To do so he needs to do better on clay...and I just dont see him doing better on clay than Djokovic.

[lags72]

Yep, good to speculate but always in the awareness that uncertainty and surprise are such an integral part of the attraction of sport.

As an honest pundit (can't remember who it was) replied some years ago when asked to say who would win just ahead of a heavyweight clash ....

"I dunno. That's why the match is being played...."

[bogbrush]

Of course BB - but you of all people like to speculate .

Moi??!!!

Lets looks at the next 2-3 years:
- Djokovic is strong across all surfaces and at peak of his powers
- Murray is strong off clay
- Nadal is strong clay, wont be killing himself on HC amymore
- Roger will start to lose points more next year, just cant see him at the very top anymore
- No youngsters coming through as yet...

I dont see who will push him for #1 consistently, do you?
The question is can Murray gain more points per year than him...? To do so he needs to do better on clay...and I just dont see him doing better on clay than Djokovic.

No, I agree, the only reason is if his game starts to take its toll on him.

[JuliusHMarx]

lydian - surely you're not saying that in this Golden era of competition at the top of the game there's only one player who can realistically be number one for the next 2 -3 years?

[bogbrush]

lydian - surely you're not saying that in this Golden era of competition at the top of the game there's only one player who can realistically be number one for the next 2 -3 years?

Obviously that would be proof of how great the #2-4 are because of the amazing standard of the #1, whereas in the Weak Era it was proof of an easy time for the #1.

[The Special Juan]

Murray really isn't well. I expect Federer to give him a rather one-sided game tomorrow.

Didn't see the match. Do you mean he was ill or just not playng well ?

Ill. He was coughing and spluttering v Dolgopolov yesterday and looked really under-the-weather today.

[lydian]

No, I agree, the only reason is if his game starts to take its toll on him.

Yep...thats the worry for him, and the wind.

[lydian]

lydian - surely you're not saying that in this Golden era of competition at the top of the game there's only one player who can realistically be number one for the next 2 -3 years?

Or perhaps I'm suggesting its not a Golden Era

All the greats of the past had their nemesis to overcome to keep at #1...lets see what Djokovic is made of in 2013.
Probably fairly stern stuff I suspect.

[The Special Juan]

Tomorrow - Djokovic v Berydch and Murray v Federer. Wins for Berdych and Federer I think, although I'd be inclined to make a fully fit Murray favourite given the BO3 record between him and Roger. 5–1 I make it.

[lydian]

Djoko vs Murray final.

[lags72]

Djoko vs Murray final.

With Djoko to come out on top.

[LuvSports!]

Tomorrow - Djokovic v Berydch and Murray v Federer. Wins for Berdych and Federer I think, although I'd be inclined to make a fully fit Murray favourite given the BO3 record between him and Roger. 5–1 I make it.

federer has beaten murray twice at the 02, cincinnati, bangkok and dubai, all best of 3 wins for feds not sure where you got 5-1 from

[The Special Juan]

Tomorrow - Djokovic v Berydch and Murray v Federer. Wins for Berdych and Federer I think, although I'd be inclined to make a fully fit Murray favourite given the BO3 record between him and Roger. 5–1 I make it.

federer has beaten murray twice at the 02, cincinnati, bangkok and dubai, all best of 3 wins for feds not sure where you got 5-1 from

It'll be Masters 1000 events then, my mistake.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Federer getting through an on form player without need of tiebreak is real surprise. I think he will roll back the rusterer backhanderer and exploiterer Murrays serverer.

Murray in 3.

[Danny_1982]

I think Novak will comfortably beat Berdych.

Murray v Fed, god knows. Both have big reasons to be very content right now, so hopefully they'll produce some good stuff. Could be very tight.

[Guest]

Federer in 3,

Djokovic in 2.

It's interesting that some people are so quick to write off Federer (including the usual pessimistic Federer fans). I believe some of the bookies have him as third favourite for the WTF. Quite bizarre since he is the 6 times and defending champion there.

Also on this board I've noticed some people making Murray favourite over Federer in Shanghai. Of course Murray has a good shot but by no means should he start as favourite. This is an indoor court and Federer is the king of indoor tennis. I think he's just lost two indoor matches since 2010.

Federer looked fantastic against Warwinka from the second set onwards. His timing was crisp and it was a top quality match - Warwinka played very well.

If Fed comes out firing on all cylinders tomorrow then no version of Murray will beat him. It's as simple as that. The caveat of course is that old Federer is not as reliable as he once was and his higher risk game requires finer tuning than Murray's lower risk approach. So if both play poorly it becomes an even match. If both are on top form, federer wins. Some may not like to hear it stated so bluntly, but I think federer deserves the recognition of being a better player.

Finally, I find it interesting that many people are predicting a relative slide down the rankings for Federer next year. I would disagree. I think he'll finish in the top three, possibly two. Infact, some on this board have been predicting a Federer demise for a long time. He'll never win another slam, he'll never get back to number one, he can no longer beat his younger rivals in the slams - all of those predictions busted this year!.

Federer is a special case. There is no rule book for a one-off talent like him. Federer is still a tremendous athlete, still one of the best movers on the tour. I don't think he's as good as he used to be; no amount of experience can make up for reduced movement and slowing reflexes. This relative decline in movement is demonstrated by his inability to cover the BH corner like he used to do. Remember those devastating inside out FH winners that were his staple? Well, they've become increasingly rare over the last 4-5 years simply because Fed no longer has the footspeed to run around his BH. Nevertheless, what marks him out from ALL the rest is his all round ability; he can hurt you in many different ways. Since autumn 2011 he's demonstrated this, and it is this ability which I believe can keep him right at the top of the game and in contention for big prizes for at least another three years - should he remain fit and motivated.

Finally, if there becomes a trend towards speeding up conditions, then I have no doubt that Federer would still be the top dog. After all he's won Rotterdam, Dubai, Wimbledon and Cincinnatti this year - some of the fastest courts on tour.



emancipator

[summerblues]

Finally, I find it interesting that many people are predicting a relative slide down the rankings for Federer next year. I would disagree. I think he'll finish in the top three, possibly two.

I tend to agree with that. In fact, I think he himself may have been surprised how relatively easily he reached #1 this year, and I would not be surprised if that gives him ideas about 2013 too.

That said, I still do not give him much more than 50/50 chance tomorrow. My feeling (hopefully incorrect) is that Fed has more or less written off the rest of 2012 - he semi-confirmed himself that he will not bust himself trying to keep #1 spot for example.

And welcome back, you have been one of my favorite posters, so it is nice to see you here again.

[Guest]

Thanks buddy

[bogbrush]

summerblues, I think he only came here for 300.

[laverfan]

Djokovic is making a hash of serving for the set.

[laverfan]

Berdych's turn to lose it. and go a break down. Why argue with chair umpire?

[bogbrush]

Berdych looks completely toothless here, he can't get anything through.

[bogbrush]

Berdy making a complete fool of himself over these altercations with Ullrich.

[lags72]

Don't wish to malign Berdych for no good reason ...... but am I right in thinking he has form wrt arguing with umpires ....??

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