Pro 12, after round 8, season shaping up?

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/heinekencup/pools/index.php
http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/table.php

Lets look at Pro 12 teams season so far.

Ulster
7 Games 7 wins, Highest points scored, most tries scored and least conceded (all with a game less than everyone, makes points and tries even better, but takes a little gloss of points conceded). Looking good in the league so far for Ulster. Europe 2 from 2 and a BP as well. Games against Northampton could be the bigest games this season. Overall, Very happy to be an Ulster fan, winning, but still don't look to be in top gear yet. Winning but not looking as good as Leinster of last year, which is the target but it does look like an achieveable target now.

Scarlets
8 games 6 wins, Won last 3 games in a row in league, looking in good shape, joint second in Tries scored and LPB's in the two games lost show that they will be a very good team this year. In Europe different storey had a very tough group and with 2 loses, it looks like they will be playing for pride in Europe and for silverware in the League. Looking fairly good for Scarlets so far, and think fans will be happy how things are going.

Glasgow Warriors.
8 games 6 wins, Lost first two games (against the 2 teams above them), have won every game since in Leauge, have possibly the toughest defence, conceding 104 point, (only Ulster 100 is better but with a game less), and 3rd fewest tries conceded. Like Scarlets 2 losses in Europe mean that only Pride to play for there. Have the potential to reach playoffs again, really underestimated team by most as get good results and into playoffs but seams to go unnoticed.

Munster
Won 5, 3 loses came away to Ospreys, Leinster and Ulster, so not bad, going along nicely i a transition year, but will still be there or there abouts in League at end of year, Europe one win one loss, game away will feel should have won. Like Ulster games against English team will have a big say in thier European campaigne. Going nicly winning games they should win, losing games they are not expected to win.

Ospreys
Won 5, lost first 3 won 5 league games since, after a slow start Ospreys are picking up and moving up the table. Conceded joint fewest tries (7 with Ulster who have played a game less), meaning defence is strong point of this team. One win one loss in Europe leaves it still all to play for. Didn't know what to expect of Ospreys as like Munster is was supposed to be a transition year, however after first 3 games they have found thier stride, and look to be like the leauge champions they are, should be in the play off places soon.

Leinster
Won 5 What can you say, they don't look like the team of last year, as good as they are in attack they are equally bad in defense, one of the top teams highest in points scored but also one of the highest in points conceded, likewise for tries scored and conceded (have joint worst tries conceded in Leauge, worse than Zebre!). Currently have the attack of a top of the table team, and defense of a bottom of the table team. Europe 2 wins from 2. However back to back games with Clermont Auvergne will prob decide the group. Everyones been waiting for Leinster to click and play like last year, but its not happening yet and Leinster fans may be getting nevous that it won't happen this year, or in time for Clermont Auvergne anyway.

Cardiff Blues
Won 3, Supposed to be a transition year and its showing lost lat 4 league games, Some big losses, and losing 4 out of 5 home games does not look good for fans. Have joint worst tries conceded in Leauge. 2 losses in Europe mean its all over, with pride the only thing to play for. Have some good players but are looking to build for future, however it looks like its going to be a long tough season for Blues fans, Seventh place a realistic target, fans won't be happy that they are now battling the likes of Connacht and Terviso.

Connacht
Won 3, hadn't high expections matching last years 8th place finish would be a good. Only 4 home games won 2. Home form will be key for them this year, going along roughly as expected, win over Leinster aside. Europe one win one loss will still have hopes of making best runner up? big games coming up, could improve to 7th place finsih in League.

Terviso
Won 3 had a very tough start to the season, won 2 out of 4 at home, but have had, Leinster, Scarlets, Glasgow and Ospreys, so will be looking to win more of these as lower teams visit, and back to back with Zebre at Christmas may push them up table. In europe 2 loses, but will look to salvage pride by winning a home game, were in group of death so not unexpexted.

Edinburgh,
last year H-cup semi finalists, have only won 2 games, of 6 losses have 4 LBP so have been keeping it close, however in Europe not scoring a single point and losing by 5 tries or more must hurt. After the highs of europe last year, Edinburgh have come back down with a bump. Going to be a very very tough year for Edinburgh fans, esp as Glasgow look like they are going to go very well (which I'm sure most are happy for Glasgow to do, its just the gulf between the sides that will be annoying). Lasst year finished down the league, but had European run, this year will be tough to get to 7th or 8th in league.

Dragons
2 wins, both at home, out of 4 home games, Dragons were looking to turn RP into a tough place to visit again, this remains to be seen if can be done this season. However most tries conceded and most points conceded (worse than Zebre) will have fans worried. However with Blues also struggling, a good win and Dragons could be challanging Blues for Europe which would cheer fans up. Almin 2 losses means it prob over as well. Home to Connacht and away to Terviso may give them a chance to pick up points on Blues, still something to fight for this season.

Zebre
Zero wins 1 LBP against Glasgow, However as bad as people say they are, they have a few pluses, there defence it not the worst in the league,Dragons, Blues and Leinster have conceded more tries, and Dragons have conceded more points.
However 6 tries for (next lowest being 11) shows were the problem lies. Will be a tough year for them Wooden spoon nearly already wrapped up. However they have had less home games than anyone else, so may pick up points here later in the year.


Overall I think that the League has split, into two mini leagues, top 6 are playing for a play off place and bottom 6 are playing for 7th place. I don't see a team form top 6 dropping below 6th and like wise a team from bottom 6 getting higher than 7th.

Intresting as we expected Leinster, Munster and Ospreys to all be in playoff, with Scarlets, Glasgow and Ulster fighting for the 4th place, that it appears to be the other way round at present.

Still a long way to go, but think its safe to say top 6 the are contenders, bottom 6 are also rans this year but will be looking to biuld for next year, or improve on last years position.

Interesting indeed.

I was pointing out yesterday that the table is currently divided in half. The top 6 from last season are currently in reverse order in the table with the bottom 6 in almost the same positions as last season.

Looking at the points though the divide seems more like top 7 v bottom 5 with Cardiff hanging on. The way they are playing though it seems unlikely that they will continue to do that.

Early days though. Only about a third through the season and the break for the AI could mean momentum shifts for some.

I agree with Mrs P to the extent that a few sides will suffer or exprerience shifts in momentum through the remaining months of this year or into the next year.

So a note of caution for some on top and/or playing well right now; and certainly all-is-not-yet-lost for some sides that are looking like they are on some very quicksandy terrain right now.

Just on Leinster - in previous seasons they've kinda tried to sustain momentum (rather like Ulster is doing now - churning at a regular upbeat pace and creating a rhythm with it) which I suppose served its purposes well in those years but only to an extent.
If the double was your goal, you might be able to argue that Leinster has always maybe expended that little bit too much energy throughout the Pro12 season (showing off, as it were) when they might have been better served save some momentum for the later end of the season, when they might hope to put up more of a fight for two titles rather than just one.

Plus for most sides - this season will probably continue to give jagged preformances for another looming reason - Lions readiness and selection. Save your best for end of season and you might just have placed yourself in a better position for a Lions call up. Hope too that you're not already mentally and physically drained by the time Gatland is making his final calls and you don't then actually dread the continuation of a tough extended season down in Oz!

think we could even change it to whos doing well and who isn't based on fans expections.

doing well
Ulster, Scarlets, Glasgow, Connacht (just slighly above expections)

as expected
Munster, Ospreys, Terviso, Dragons

below expections
Leinster (just slighly), Blues, Edinburgh, Zebre

Just to add some perspective the sky prediction for the final table ( https://www.606v2.com/t34171-sky-s-predictions-for-the-rabo?highlight=rabo+table )

Predicted 2012/13 table

1 Leinster
2 Glasgow
3 Ospreys
4 Scarlets
5 Munster
6 Ulster
7 Connacht
8 Edinburgh
9 Treviso
10 Cardiff Blues
11 Dragons
12 Zebre
Leinster to finish as champions

And Rugby World ( https://www.606v2.com/t34350-rugby-world-rabo-direct-pro-12-season-predictions?highlight=rabo+table )

LEINSTER - Champions
OSPREYS – Losing Finalists
ULSTER – 2nd (regular season)
EDINBURGH – 4th
MUNSTER – 5th
BLUES – 6th
GLASGOW WARRIORS – 7th
SCARLETS – 8th
BENETTON TREVISO – 9th
DRAGONS – 10th
CONNACHT – 11th
ZERBRE - 12th

Good post.. Puts a touch of perspective into the mix.

Ospreys are now getting a bit of consistency into their game, looking a better team than at the beginning of the season.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Just to add some perspective the sky prediction for the final table ( https://www.606v2.com/t34171-sky-s-predictions-for-the-rabo?highlight=rabo+table )

Predicted 2012/13 table

1 Leinster
2 Glasgow
3 Ospreys
4 Scarlets
5 Munster
6 Ulster
7 Connacht
8 Edinburgh
9 Treviso
10 Cardiff Blues
11 Dragons
12 Zebre
Leinster to finish as champions

And Rugby World ( https://www.606v2.com/t34350-rugby-world-rabo-direct-pro-12-season-predictions?highlight=rabo+table )

LEINSTER - Champions
OSPREYS – Losing Finalists
ULSTER – 2nd (regular season)
EDINBURGH – 4th
MUNSTER – 5th
BLUES – 6th
GLASGOW WARRIORS – 7th
SCARLETS – 8th
BENETTON TREVISO – 9th
DRAGONS – 10th
CONNACHT – 11th
ZERBRE - 12th

Well, those tables are way off anyway. Leinster will undoubtedly make the PO, but will not be top of the table. As for Ulster being surprise leaders. Not a surprise to me. They reached a European Final and beat Munster in Thomond in the HC. Two sides have done that. Their depth was developing nicely last season so seeing them be 7 out of 7 with prob 5 more points to come when they make up the Zebre game, is no surprise to me.

As a Munster fan, I am some what heartened by where we are standing right now in the table and will remain hopeful of getting to the HC QF's and a League semi, What happens after that is 100% bonus territory. Next season anything less than being there or there abouts for winning both competitions will be a failure though. And that will be a tough ask as i see further improvement for Ulster and the Ospreys as well as a Leinster side that will probably still be capable of doing the double. Not to mention that I can also see Edinburgh, Cardiff & Scarlets gelling as teams (and if Edinburgh get a break on the injury front they'll give anyone a headache in a one off game as well as a whole campaign.

Connacht too, while they will never threaten a playoff place and are unlikely to qualify for European knockouts in the HC, are well positioned this and next season, to help decide who wins. Put it this way, i wouldn't like to be going to the Sportground looking for a result come the business end of the season. In Parks they have a game manager and as the season goes on himself and his pack will get better at boxing clever. And the way the @rse farked Leinster's second string shows you that they aren't that far off the pace any more.

Depresing viewing as an Edinburgh fan!

Big test for Glasgow now though - they've done really well but their 6 wins includes both Italian teams, Connacht and the Dragons so they've got some tough games coming up.

Good summary Kingshu.

Your comments are correct about Glasgow - it still surprises me how little consideration they receive when people are stroking their chins about the end of the season. We don't mind though - we'll stay under the radar and keep chalking up the wins. The good thing is that we are still waiting for a huge amount of talent to come back from injury (most of what was the first team last season, in fact with Cusiter, Weir, Low, DTH etc, etc) and I can see us only getting stronger as the season progresses. And this is before our young chap Sean Maitland pulls his boots on and starts dotting down some scores.

Ulster have been extremely tight and clinical and deserve their success. I would have said last year that injuries to the likes of Ferris will see the wheels come off at some point, but they have strong leaders in the team who can choke out any game. You should wrap Cave and Pienaar in cotton wool and taste their food beforehand.

Scarlets have been lovely to watch and their pack has fronted up very well.

Completely confused by the Spreys and Leinster - they have veered between excellent and pretty mediocre in a number of the games that I've seen them in this year.

Edinburgh. Hmm. I just haven't got the words.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Depresing viewing as an Edinburgh fan!

Big test for Glasgow now though - they've done really well but their 6 wins includes both Italian teams, Connacht and the Dragons so they've got some tough games coming up.

Naughty boy, RDW. Treviso away is no picnic. They've already beaten Scarlets, Ospreys, Dragons and a team I shan't name in case you get upset, to say nothing of coming within 2 points of beating Leinster.

But I understand your point. If Toonie's Barmy Army can take down Leinster at home on 23 November, then we can start comparing todger sizes with the best of them.

George - didn't mean to belittle Glasgow's achievements - Edinburgh lost at home to Trevisio remember!!! It's a great start but should be remembered that these teams will finish in the lower part of the league (with Edinburgh)!

What's great though is that they have got these wins to set them up for the tough games coming up.

Edinburgh have a similar run in to what Glasgow have just had at the start of the season - problem is that we are going to be so far down the league that we won't gain much from winning the supposed 'easier' games in the last few games of the season!

Very nice summary of the position.

From a Scarlets point of view we have started well, especially against Leinster, but haven't been convincing lately. The game against Zebre showed the problems we face during the AI's with 12 players away. If we played any other team we would almost certainly have lost, as it is most teams would be looking to get a TBP against Zebre, we were fortunate to score 1 try. During the AI's we have Munster away, which we will lose and then Ulster at PYS (outside the AI window but the day after Wales play Australia). Unless some of the players away with Wales return the week before then I expect that will be another loss, in fact, subject to what team Ulster can put out that weekend, first against second could be a bit of a hiding!

SubsBench wrote:Very nice summary of the position.

From a Scarlets point of view we have started well, especially against Leinster, but haven't been convincing lately. The game against Zebre showed the problems we face during the AI's with 12 players away. If we played any other team we would almost certainly have lost, as it is most teams would be looking to get a TBP against Zebre, we were fortunate to score 1 try. During the AI's we have Munster away, which we will lose and then Ulster at PYS (outside the AI window but the day after Wales play Australia). Unless some of the players away with Wales return the week before then I expect that will be another loss, in fact, subject to what team Ulster can put out that weekend, first against second could be a bit of a hiding!

More or less the game against the Ospreys really seemed to knock our confidence/form and at the same time gee them up a lot.

The game against Zebre was a shambles and rather painful to watch, however those were the sort of matches we would have lost in the last few seasons, so on the plus side we did walk away with four points. Sadly I think any hopes of chasing Ulster will be put to bed by the time they visit PYS, unless we can feild our first team (bar internationals) in the LV= to give tehm time to gel before facing Munster and Ulster.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

SubsBench wrote:Very nice summary of the position.

From a Scarlets point of view we have started well, especially against Leinster, but haven't been convincing lately. The game against Zebre showed the problems we face during the AI's with 12 players away. If we played any other team we would almost certainly have lost, as it is most teams would be looking to get a TBP against Zebre, we were fortunate to score 1 try. During the AI's we have Munster away, which we will lose and then Ulster at PYS (outside the AI window but the day after Wales play Australia). Unless some of the players away with Wales return the week before then I expect that will be another loss, in fact, subject to what team Ulster can put out that weekend, first against second could be a bit of a hiding!

More or less the game against the Ospreys really seemed to knock our confidence/form and at the same time gee them up a lot.

The game against Zebre was a shambles and rather painful to watch, however those were the sort of matches we would have lost in the last few seasons, so on the plus side we did walk away with four points. Sadly I think any hopes of chasing Ulster will be put to bed by the time they visit PYS, unless we can feild our first team (bar internationals) in the LV= to give tehm time to gel before facing Munster and Ulster.

The problem is that our first choice back row, outside halves, centers, right wing and full back are internationals! plus our first and second choice hookers. It's lucky for us that Lloyd Williams was selected despite his form! With players 6-10 and 12-15 missing it's hardly any wonder that we are going to struggle.

You are right about the win against Zebre, we have lost too many of that type of game.

Bench - we have a heap missing, which is why it is crucial that we try and feild our new look backline together as often as possible leading up to the Munster and Ulster games.

Look if we were good, it wouldn't be any fun, would it.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Bench - we have a heap missing, which is why it is crucial that we try and feild our new look backline together as often as possible leading up to the Munster and Ulster games.

Agreed

Glas, not sure "fun" is the right word. I know if we were good I'd have less white hair and my language wouldn't be as bad, I think my son may have learnt a few new words on Saturday.

Not "good pass" "well caught" or "see that's how you play running rugby" I bet.

No, the words were more to do with biology, reproduction and family trees! It's fair to say that if he repeats them in school today he won't be coming home with a gold star!

That's why I love supporting the Scarlets, the sublime to the ridiculous often many times within the same match. It's like supporting France, but they're not as good, obviously.

It's probably to soon to say there's no catching Ulster. But they're already top. With a game in hand. Against Zebre! I think the Rabo final will be played in Ravenhill this season.

I don't think the Zebre have done to bad. We weren't expecting much but they have come close twice to winning away games.

Think that the rest is a fair reflection.

I'm happy enough with Munster. They've already played Ospreys, Leinster and Ulster away while at the same time trying to change their style of play. The team is inexperienced, which I think cost Munster but overall the quality of the new players is good. I think Munster can really kick on from here in the Rabo and HEC.

Ulster and Leinster have had opposite fortunes so far this season. It'll be interesting to see how they go especially interesting to see how long Ulster keep their unbeaten run going. They're due some tough games around christmas but overall they're looking good to top the league.

Connachts season has been a mixed bag. Losing their first game at home to Cardiff was a bad start and they've picked up a fair few injuries.

The Welsh teams are going as expected so far. The danger for them is squad size.

The Italians are doing as expected also. Treviso have not kicked on from last season and Zebre are struggling. They've only 2 teams but they're so lacking in quality that I reckon they should relax their rules on non Italian players until they become more competitive.

Edinburgh has been the big disappointment. I had high hopes for them this season but they've been brutal again. Glasgow have been similar to last season. A tough team nobody likes playing and they've been on a good run lately.

Performing well:
- Ulster
- Glasgow
- Scarlets

As expected
- Munster
- Ospreys
- Treviso
- Zebre
- Dragons
- Connacht

Must do better
- Leinster
- Edinburgh
- Cardiff Blues


The 3 big Irish teams will finish in the top 4 IMO. Leinster struggling makes the league a bit more exciting for the rest of us!

Feckless Rogue wrote:It's probably to soon to say there's no catching Ulster. But they're already top. With a game in hand. Against Zebre! I think the Rabo final will be played in Ravenhill this season.

Way too soon! We have a really tough run of fixtures coming up after that Zebre match;

Treviso (A)
Scarlets (A)
Leinster (H)
Munster (A)

I'm most concerned about the Treviso game, I fear an ambush. We only have one fit second row for that match after all, and that is the area Treviso are most strong. I hope Iain Henderson is released for it!

Ok, if we play like we can we can beat anybody but December is a tough month.

I know it's a tough run especially with the Saints games in the midst of it but the Scarlets match is at Ravenhill, no?

MrsP wrote:I know it's a tough run especially with the Saints games in the midst of it but the Scarlets match is at Ravenhill, no?

No. They come to Ravenhill on the 4th of January. I'm glad its that way around. Better to have Scarlets away when they may be bereft of internationals. At Ravenhill, I don't care who they select. No fear.

Excellent summary Kingshu, thank you.

As a Dragons fan it's so depressing. I've been close to not renewing my ticket before but I think this might be the real deal.

Notch wrote:

MrsP wrote:I know it's a tough run especially with the Saints games in the midst of it but the Scarlets match is at Ravenhill, no?

No. They come to Ravenhill on the 4th of January. I'm glad its that way around. Better to have Scarlets away when they may be bereft of internationals. At Ravenhill, I don't care who they select. No fear.

You don't fear the "Mighty Scarlets"? I don't blame you. When thean on the mic says it, the fans laugh.

Glas,

I know your guys didn't have their best game against Zebre but they are still 2nd in the table and have taken points in every game. I don't think any team go to PYS expecting to walk away with many points. Hoping to, yes but not expecting to.

We are gentlemen, everybody gets a sporting chance.

As a Glasgow fan, I am very happy with the performance thus far - credit to his Toonienes and the squad. Yes, we have had some of the "easier" games, but with so many players out injured now, in the second half of the season these guys coming back should add extra impetus.

For me, the next two games, Leinster (H) and Munster (A), are vital. If we can cobble 5 points from these two fixtures, I will be relatively happy. Loose both, and momentum will be lost going into the Edinburgh fixtures.

Special mention in dispatches must go to big Mike Cusak, he has been an absolute rock. He may not do much around the field, but at scrum time he is the linchpin of the side, earning us countless penalties.

I don't think Glasgow will go unnoticed for to long, the signing of Sean Maitland will give them a big boost in newspaper inches, plus making play offs last year and being in top 4 of pro 12 will boost thier profile.

Ok a H-cup run is unlikley but a win over Saints would make the English press take notice that there is a very good team North of the boarder.

One thing that I noticed was that the NSQ players have improved for Glasgow, seams to be a real step up this year in that regards.
Players In
Angus Macdonald from Coca Cola West Red Sparks
Tim Swinson from Newcastle
Viliami Ma'afu from Sagamihara Dynaboars
Taylor Paris from Ontario Blues
Nikola Matawalu from Navy Rugby Club
Josh Strauss from Lions

These NSQ replaced these NSQ
Rob Verbakel to Otago
David Lemi to Worcester
Federico Martín Aramburú retired
Viliami Ma'afu

So an increase in NSQ player standards

If you are limited on who many non national team players you can have, you may as well make sure the ones you have are the best you can get, and in positions you need (I know comparsions with Ulster will be drawn).

But the Non National Players are really important in Pro 12, not only do they add a touch of quality all year round but when your internationals are called up (training games etc) the team usually loses not only its best players, but its experienced players, when this happens you rely on the quality of the NSQ'ed players to step up and lead the younger players. (games that would have been narrrow losses, turn into narrow wins etc etc).

Also think of the difference it would make say the Dragons, if they swaped their NWQ for these NSQ ones. They are a real boost to a team, and not surprised that Glasgow have imporved by improving these.
Glasgow had a good team before this making play-offs, but have taken it up a level with these guys and Sean Maitland, joining an already talented team with good youngesters, only regret they may have is losing Gray.

MrsP wrote:Glas,

I know your guys didn't have their best game against Zebre but they are still 2nd in the table and have taken points in every game. I don't think any team go to PYS expecting to walk away with many points. Hoping to, yes but not expecting to.

Ah, but I was talking about hosting them at Ravenhill in January. I still hope we may go the season unbeaten at home.

Dreamer is furious with the WRU for squeezing in the fourth AI, again.

Yeah... gives us a great chance of getting a good win over our closest rivals so far.

This is a real issue I think. How are supposed to get a good old rivalry going with you, if we are constantly hamstrung by our own Union?

I think the Scarlets V Ulster rivalry has been building for years. We were decent at same time declined at same time and have now risen together.

The last min kicks by Pienaar, to win in PYS a few years back, and other things have made it a friendly rivalry, I like Scarlets and the brand they play.

Normally the game against ospreys is my favourite as they are normally the top Welsh team, but Scarlets always has something else to it, and if they are to become top region then even better. Munster and Leinster can have thier battles with Ospreys, for Ulster its Scarlets.

There's a lot in common in our histories as well. Both were top of the tree domestically for so long, Willie John McBride and Delme Thomas etc.

Just looking into it more in league, Scarlets v Ulster head to head, played 22 won 10 apiece drew 2, so all even at present on that score.

Ooh, I could crush a grape!

Kingshu wrote:Just looking into it more in league, Scarlets v Ulster head to head, played 22 won 10 apiece drew 2, so all even at present on that score.

And we have a both won the league at Stradey Park too.

Its like Scarlets are our Welsh twins.
League title each.

Except we've got a H-cup.

oh and an old Celtic league cup.

Kingshu wrote:Its like Scarlets are our Welsh twins.
League title each.

Except we've got a H-cup.

oh and an old Celtic league cup.

Both before we existed, so they don't count!

Celtic cup was 2003–04, same year Scarlets won the League.

We'll could argue about '99 and Scarlets keeping Llanelli's record, but we'll let that one slip, don't want region v superclub debates here.

So Celtic league cup, if your face Scarlets, jealous???

No, you have plenty to deal with.

If the current form continues I think that the teams to battle for the top four are Scarlets, Ulster, Glasgow Ospreys and Munster, but alas the season is still young and I think it will be between Ulster Ospreys Munster and one of Scarlets, Glasgow and Leinster for fourth.

Munster? Really?

Glas a du wrote:Munster? Really?

They are quietly going about their business and will be there at the end of the season.

They're always blydi there, that's what's so annoying about them.

I like that about them...they're the Mohammed Ali Monster.

For those who don't know what that is - it was a joke Ali told about the old monster movies where he always found it so funny that as the poor victims ran at top speed to escape the monster's clutches, the monster itself always took its time, step by slow step...and still managed to always catch the victims!