Buildup: Scotland vs South Africa

First topic message reminder :

Based on Today.s performance who would you pick to play South Africa.
I'd go for:
15. Hogg
14. Evans
13. Dunbar
12. scott
11. Visser
10. Jackson
9. Blair
8. Denton
7. Rennie (Barclay if he's not fit)
6. Brown
5. Hamilton
4. Gray
3. Murray
2. Ford
1. Grant

Acid tests always the 6N. I agree he shouldve gone after the most recent one, but he didnt, and the teams doing ok just now, so im happy to wait till the spring and see.

Yeah Kick&Chase It is truly remarkable how bad Scotland have really been, although I personally blame the strategy of previous coaches. Things are looking much brighter in my opinion and hopefully we'll have some good days ahead in the 6N.

I'm not a stats man usually, but I think the following random cap/try stats do reflect how poor Scottish rugby has been and how it is improving.

The old/semi old: Blair (89 caps, 7 Trys), S Lamont (69 caps, 8 Trys), Max Evans (31 caps, 3 Trys), Nick De Luca (30 Caps, 1 Try)....

Total of 219 caps & 19 Trys

The New: Stuart Hogg (8 caps, 1 Try), Tim Visser (3 caps, 4 Trys), Joe Ansbro (11 caps, 3 Trys), Greig Laidlaw (11 caps, 2 Trys).....

Total of 33 caps & 10 Trys

Bit of a hack job but you get the idea anyway. I also think the 6N is crucial and any result better than 5th would be great, but with a backline of 9.Blair, 10.Laidlaw, 11.Visser, 12.Scott, 13.Dunbar, 14.Maitland, 15.Hogg we should most definitely be aiming for 3rd or better in my opinion. Early this year I predicted Scotland would come 5th, next year I honestly think they'll come 3rd or 4th with the squad we have shaping up.

Very interesting stats.
Here's another one, since Andy Robinson took over the most tries we've scored in a game is 4. This has happened twice against Romania in the world cup then Fiji on the summer tour.
Bizarrely our 2nd best try scoring outing came last week against New Zealand!

bsando wrote:Yeah Kick&Chase It is truly remarkable how bad Scotland have really been, although I personally blame the strategy of previous coaches. Things are looking much brighter in my opinion and hopefully we'll have some good days ahead in the 6N.

I'm not a stats man usually, but I think the following random cap/try stats do reflect how poor Scottish rugby has been and how it is improving.

The old/semi old: Blair (89 caps, 7 Trys), S Lamont (69 caps, 8 Trys), Max Evans (31 caps, 3 Trys), Nick De Luca (30 Caps, 1 Try)....

Total of 219 caps & 19 Trys

The New: Stuart Hogg (8 caps, 1 Try), Tim Visser (3 caps, 4 Trys), Joe Ansbro (11 caps, 3 Trys), Greig Laidlaw (11 caps, 2 Trys).....

Total of 33 caps & 10 Trys

Bit of a hack job but you get the idea anyway. I also think the 6N is crucial and any result better than 5th would be great, but with a backline of 9.Blair, 10.Laidlaw, 11.Visser, 12.Scott, 13.Dunbar, 14.Maitland, 15.Hogg we should most definitely be aiming for 3rd or better in my opinion. Early this year I predicted Scotland would come 5th, next year I honestly think they'll come 3rd or 4th with the squad we have shaping up.

Yes, the 6N will decide a lot of things, including Lions places and whether AR gets to continue to live in his lovely sandstone building in the Old Town.

We should get more than our share of ball with the forwards that we have (only the French pack really worry me in that respect), so the only thing that's going to stop us improving is the failure to continually play the correct combinations often enoughin internationals.

Hopefully, if we can get some games under our belt with
9. Blair
10. Laidlaw
11. Visser
12. Scott
13. Dunbar
14. Maitland
15. Hogg

then we'll see that bear fruit.

When Cusiter and Ansbro come back and we get a glimpse of what Bennett brings (other than dirty nappies*), then we'll see if that needs changing but that's our core seat of backs at the moment, IMHO.

*FES 2012 - All rights reserved.

The Springbok team to face Scotland in Edinburgh is:

15. Zane Kirchner (Vodacom Blue Bulls) 22caps
14. JP Pietersen (The Sharks) 46 caps
13. Juan de Jongh (DHL Western Province) 12 caps
12.Jean de Villiers (captain) DHL Western Province 82 caps
11. Francois Hougaard (Vodacom Blue Bulls) 25 caps
10. Pat Lambie (The Sharks) 18 caps
9. Ruan Pienaar (Ulster, N-Ireland) 61 caps
8. Duane Vermeulen (DHL Western Province) 5 caps
7. Willem Alberts (The Sharks) 18 caps
6. Francois Louw (Bath, England) 15 caps
5. Juandré Kruger (Vodacom Blue Bulls) 6 caps
4. Eben Etzebeth (DHL Western Province) 9 caps
3. Jannie du Plessis (The Sharks) 40 caps
2. Adriaan Strauss (vice-captain, Toyota FS Cheetahs) 19 caps
1. Gurthrö Steenkamp (Toulouse, France) 38 caps

Replacements

16. Schalk Brits (Saracens, England) 3 caps
17. Heinke van der Merwe (Leinster, Ireland) 2 caps
18. CJ van der Linde (MTN Golden Lions) 74 caps
19. Flip van der Merwe (Vodacom Blue Bulls) 21 caps
20. Marcell Coetzee (The Sharks) 10 caps
21. Morné Steyn (Vodacom Blue Bulls) 41 caps
22. Jaco Taute (MTN Golden Lions) 3 caps
23. Lwazi Mvovo (The Sharks) 7 caps

No change then apart from Juan de Jongh and Gurthro in for Beast.

Right - how do we stop Pieenar??

He almost single handedly won Ulster the game in Dublin last year against Edinburgh, and was promintent against Glasgow too this year. When Pieenar plays well, Ulster win!

What can we do to stop him? For me his kicking game is fantastic so we need to have strong positional play in the back 3.

How do we stop him - set a flanker after him. Everytime he touches the ball he needs to have a flanker in his face putting him on his arse.

Or maybe some dodgy prawn in his salad? he was too good against Edinbugh - a masterclass.

Barclay and Brown need to give him a difficult afternoon, which they are certainly capable of doing. One of those games where I wish it was Cus all over Pienaar rather than Blair.

The way I see it is that teams obviously try to target him and still fail. I'm sure many teams before have tried to get someone on top of him at every opportunity but he still orchestrates the game.

The obvious thing is to starve him of the ball - if they don't have ball, they can't do much. If their forwards dominate and are on the front foot - Pieenar will pull all the strings.

So it's easy - we've got to dominate them up front!

Cus must be the most irritating SH around right now - its an artform with him - naturally a nice guy but boy does he work at being an annoying get on the park. His favourite is to wind up a lock then hide behind Jim Hamilton or to tread of the opposing SH toes at scrum time :-)

Surprised Meyer hasn't altered his team more.... the boks should be too good for us and it would do some guys good if we put them in for experience.

Teaming Taute and De Jongh together for instance, could be a future pairing and De Villiers needs a rest for the ENG match.... perhaps if all goes well for the boks he'll take of JDV at 50mins.

Why no Jantjies on the bench either... Pienaar can cover kicking if Lambie is replaced anyhow. Doesn't make sense to me. Morne is their for kicking alone... but Pienaar is just as good... so why not throw on a young blood with promise?

Reminds me of when PDV kept on choosing Smit over Bismaarck and Martin Johnson kept on choosing Borthwick over... well just about anybody.

Biltong wrote:No change then apart from Juan de Jongh and Gurthro in for Beast.

Biltong - what do you make of that team? Bench looks very strong to my inexperienced eyes.

How do you think that the game will pan out?

And Biltong - don't know why you were saying that the bench would be a weakness for SA, I'd be quite happy with your front row subs starting for us!

6. Schalk Brits (Saracens, England) 3 caps
17. Heinke van der Merwe (Leinster, Ireland) 2 caps
18. CJ van der Linde (MTN Golden Lions) 74 caps

CJ's best years are beyond him... been living off his reputation for a few years now.

I wouldn't have him in my squad outside of experience. Guys like Kitsoff and Cilliers should be in.

When is the Scots team announced? I'm guessing tomorrow?

Should be pretty soon - Twitter account said after lunch,

The problem with that team is Jean de Villiers and Zane Kirchner, they cannot create, they have no vision except for tunnel vision.

I made a remark about the game last week where again de villiers canot complete a legitimate pass, Zane Kirchner and de Villiers run as if a pack of wolves are behind them, there is no pace variation in their running, just straight foward, full blast , I will run until I fall.

We also lack pace in our back row, sure they are a physical bunch, but pace not much.

Excellent cheers pal, I will keep my eye on the old feed then...

For what its worth I hope Murray and Barcs come in. I wasn't that impressed with Schlong either but I can't see Robbo dropping him.

If you look at Etzebeth, Strauss, Louw, Vermeulen and Alberts, they are all barnstorming ball carriers, brutes if you will, but none of them pass.

Sounds like it would be a mistake to get into an arm wrestle with that pack then??

I want to make it clear I respect South Africa's rugby a lot. Truthfully hand on my heart though I think we'll win this test match by playing an expansive game rather than getting embroiled in an arm wrestle with these huge guys.

It's suited us in the past to engage in a brutish game but not anymore.

For the 1st time in about 12 years we have a team that can play with guile, pace and flair. That is exactly what I want to see on Saturday.

Do that and I think we'll win. Engage in an attritional forwards battle and the Boks will steam roller us with their forwards and Pieenar's accurate kicking from hand.

Looks like Meyer hasn't understood Etzebeth strengths and weaknesses either.... the boks are still giving him loads of ball unprotected in the loose. half the time he gets through.. half the time he gets upended and potentially loses possession as he's quite top heavy... all in the guns and shoulders... little in the quads.

He needs support runners giving him balance on the scruff of his neck... we've done it all season and it means we smash down defensive walls and don't get turned over either.

For me the key to beating SA is beating Frans Louw... big on the floor, big in the tackle.

If we can get the edge on him we can compete... if not he will feed Alberts and Vermuleun ball all day.... in essence, game over.

I don't think the Boks pack would steamroller us at all - I think we have a pack to match anyone. However you are right in that our best way of winning is to play a 15 man game at pace. I just hope laidlaw has his confidence back - he looked better in the NZ game than he has recently for club tho.

team's oot!

15 Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors) 8 caps, 1 try, 5 points

14 Sean Lamont (Glasgow Warriors) 69 caps, 8 tries, 40 points
13 Nick De Luca (Edinburgh Rugby) 36 caps, 1 try, 5 points
12 Matt Scott (Edinburgh Rugby) 5 caps
11 Tim Visser (Edinburgh Rugby) 3 caps, 4 tries 20 points

10 Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh Rugby) 11 caps, 2 tries, 10 conversions, 16 penalties, 78 points
9 Mike Blair (Brive) 84 caps, 7 tries, 35 points

1 Ryan Grant (Glasgow Warriors) 4 caps
2 Ross Ford (Edinburgh Rugby) 62 caps, 2 tries, 10 points
3 Reverand Euan Murray (Agen) 47 caps, 2 tries, 10 points
4 Richie Gray (Sale Sharks) 25 caps, 1 try, 5 points
5 Penalty Magnet Hardman Jim Hamilton (Gloucester) 40 caps, 1 try, 5 points
6 Alasdair Strokosch (Perpignan) 29 caps, 1 try, 5 points
7 Kelly Brown (Saracens) CAPTAIN, 50 caps, 4 tries, 20 points
8 David Denton (Edinburgh Rugby) 7 caps

Substitutes

16 Dougie Hall (Glasgow Warriors) 37 caps, 1 try, 5 points
17 Kyle Traynor (Bristol Rugby) 3 caps
18 Geoff Cross (Edinburgh Rugby) 15 caps, 1 try, 5 points
19 Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors) 45 caps, 1 try, 5 points
20 John Barclay (Glasgow Warriors) 39 caps, 2 tries, 10 points
21 Henry Pyrgos (Glasgow Warriors) 1 cap
22 Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors) 14 caps, 2 conversions, 2 penalties, 2 drop-goals, 16 points
23 Peter Murchie (Glasgow Warriors) uncapped

Really? Traynor instead of Chunk? Murchie instead of Evans?

Obviously Brown at 7 is not ideal either.

Robbo really never fails to surprise with his selections, does he...

Typically conservative selection from Robinson, shoe-horning players into positions they don't play and sticking with out of form players. Unimpressed

Fairly happy with that - not too sure about three blind-sides in the back row, but I guess it'll keep Pienaar busy...

I'm assuming Chunk's had a knock - I was so looking forward to not worrying about the front-row subs come the 60 minute mark!

Jacobsen's out for "personal reasons", hope nothing too serious. No real openside is a mistake.

Chunk is out for personal reasons apparently.

Bit random dropping Max for Murchie though....

So happy to see Denton starting.

Why is Barclay not being played? We have 2 of the best NH opensides at our disposal (Rennie & Barclay), and for some reason Barclay is not getting a game?



Secondly not convinced by Murchie. Although Max Evans hasn't done much to keep his place I would have probably rather had Seymour on the bench or any of the other glasgow lads rather than Murchie.....

Scotland must stifle SA. They must close down space and come up together in the line. Too often against NZ they came up disjointed or people like Visser held off too long before committing to a player like Savea. If they can clutter the line which led to Visser's first try they'll make life much more complicated. SA are not as skilled as NZ in exploiting pace but they do have some dangerous men who thrive in space.

Don't know what the forecast is but some rain can't hurt Scotland's chances. This game will be decided in the forwards and the Scottish pack can be greatly encouraged by the fact that they can live with the big guys for 80 minutes in the forwards. If the game breaks open and becomes loose, this will likely work against Scotland. Fight them in the trenches!

Francois Louw is going to have a field day at Murrayfield

has Barclay been sleeping with Robbo's mrs or something?

it's time for knock on Nick to stand up and be counted or his international days should be numbered!

Agreed on Murchie - I've watched most of Glasgow's games and, other than one break in one game, he's been distinctly average.

Real kick in the nuts for Tonks who has been consistently superb for Edinburgh in a poor team- Robinson really does just seem to have his favourites though.

Not starting Barclay and playing your captain out of position

I'd miles prefer to see Tonks in instead of Murchie too. It would be a real bonus to see young Tonks integrated into the squad b4 the 6 n's.

Murchie has looked ok and is on 'ok' form, but 'ok' doesn't cut it at international level, particularly against a top 3 team.

We need to win this one to get into the top 8. I can't see Murchie changing a game, Evans could and has.

Classic Robinson selection - conservative and negative. The sooner he is gone the better.

Not sure what the problem is with the back row, who in South Africa is the accomplished fetcher, and how do fethers generally go against them??

They are a destructive breakdown team, and with Robinsons record V the SH teams I thought he'd get more trust!!

IMO he's chosen his best breakdown options in the back row, it worked when playing the opposing technique of Oz when he played the opposite and almost 3 7's!!!

TJ wrote:Classic Robinson selection - conservative and negative. The sooner he is gone the better.

I can accept criticism of Robinson, I have done it plenty of times myself but I'm not 100% convinced this selection can be termed either. I'm disapointed Barclay isn'ts starting since my preference for a backrow has always been :

6. Chopper
7. fetcher
8. Carrier.

We seem to have 2 choppers and a carrier although Dozer can do some of the breakdown work as can Kelly Brown. Apart from Lamont I would say the backline is a far cry from conservative or nageative. Morrison starting on the other hand.......

I better shut up lest I give Robinson ideas

thebluesmancometh wrote:Not sure what the problem is with the back row, who in South Africa is the accomplished fetcher, and how do fethers generally go against them??

They are a destructive breakdown team, and with Robinsons record V the SH teams I thought he'd get more trust!!

IMO he's chosen his best breakdown options in the back row, it worked when playing the opposing technique of Oz when he played the opposite and almost 3 7's!!!

I think we'd be much better off with Barclay at 7 but it's not the worst selection Robinson's ever made. Hamilton vs Kellock and Murray vs Cross I don't feel strongly about. Murchie is lucky. But I'm still hopeful we can get the win.

Christ on a moped. Robinson continues to justify his reputation as a frothingly bonkers selector.

I have no idea what the smeg Murchie is doing in there. Dunbar, Tonks, Horne or Seymour would be far more worthy. Murchie isn't even a kicker, he's just a utility back. I assume that the Glasgow lads will be trusted against the South Sea Islanders only, which is a shame and I will personally go mental if we lose this game and our second pool seeding only for Horne, Dunbar et al to run up a cricket score at Pittodrie.

Playing Brown at 7 is just the most bizarre thing I have ever seen. I can only assume and hope that Big Al will tackle himself into a standstill and then we put Barclay on when the game has broken up a little. But if you're going to put an openside on the bench, why not start with one on the pitch? It's a tacit admission that picking two dedicated blindsides on the field may be a mistake.

More important than the team, though, are the tactics. If we don't (a) cut out the stupid mistakes, (b) hit the defensive line at speed and (c) make first tackles every time, then we're toast. And you know what, we won't deserve to be anything other than third pool cannon fodder.

I'm coming over a bit '21st Century' about this - really don't see the method behind the madness at all, other than the clear admission that Robbo thinks that defence will win this game. I'd rather french kiss a skunk than enter into a wet day arm wrestle without Barclay and our midfield pairing dropping more balls than a Cirque du Soleil apprentice. It's time for a monkey:

Murchie is simply not an international calibre player on the basis of what I have seen

It's a head scratcher to be sure. However I'm standing my my comments from earlier.

South Africa are riddled with injuries. The side coming to Murrayfield are considerably weaker than the team that came in 2010.

In contrast Scotland look much much stronger.

Sure Robinson has made some bonkers selections. Lamont at 12, Hines at 6 and now Kelly Brown at 7, Dan Parks in the England game last year after watching Laidlaw demolish LI in the HC.

It changes nothing, that is a team that is perfectly capable of beating this weakened, wounded and tenderized (thank you Ireland) South Africa side.

Time will tell if Robinson's selections have paid off.

I personally would have started with : 6. Brown 7. Barcs 8. Dents

I also wouldn't have Murchie on the bench, as GC has stated : Dunbar, Tonks, Horne or Seymour would be far more worthy.

Some thoughts

Also, happy enough with the backrow


15 Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors) 8 caps, 1 try, 5 points - Worth his place, but had a poor game, so needs to rediscover form14 Sean Lamont (Glasgow Warriors) 69 caps, 8 tries, 40 points - very lucky to keep place - expect him to prove his worth
13 Nick De Luca (Edinburgh Rugby) 36 caps, 1 try, 5 points - Should have been dropped - poor game again for Scotland. It goes in my household...TV - NDL has the ball. Missis - whats he done wrong this time - TV - he has dropped the ball / been turned over, given a penalty away - It is uncanny
12 Matt Scott (Edinburgh Rugby) 5 caps - Needs to do better
11 Tim Visser (Edinburgh Rugby) 3 caps, 4 tries 20 points
10 Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh Rugby) 11 caps, 2 tries, 10 conversions, 16 penalties, 78 points
9 Mike Blair (Brive) 84 caps, 7 tries, 35 points

1 Ryan Grant (Glasgow Warriors) 4 caps
2 Ross Ford (Edinburgh Rugby) 62 caps, 2 tries, 10 points - Should be dropped - lost us any chance of putting pressure on the NZ with failed line outs close to their line - has done this too often in games - you can almost assume we have an attacking line out 5 yards out, it will be balls up. Poor in loose, tackling and ok in scrum - needs to find his desire
3 Reverand Euan Murray (Agen) 47 caps, 2 tries, 10 points - Needs to prove his worth - actually thought cross was ok in the scrum (But I seem to be the only person)
4 Richie Gray (Sale Sharks) 25 caps, 1 try, 5 points
5 Penalty Magnet Hardman Jim Hamilton (Gloucester) 40 caps, 1 try, 5 points - actually did he give than many away - thought is was Denton / Rennie more
6 Alasdair Strokosch (Perpignan) 29 caps, 1 try, 5 points
7 Kelly Brown (Saracens) CAPTAIN, 50 caps, 4 tries, 20 points
8 David Denton (Edinburgh Rugby) 7 caps

Substitutes

16 Dougie Hall (Glasgow Warriors) 37 caps, 1 try, 5 points
17 Kyle Traynor (Bristol Rugby) 3 caps - Chuck was so slow and fat, should have been dropped anyway
18 Geoff Cross (Edinburgh Rugby) 15 caps, 1 try, 5 points
19 Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors) 45 caps, 1 try, 5 points
20 John Barclay (Glasgow Warriors) 39 caps, 2 tries, 10 points
21 Henry Pyrgos (Glasgow Warriors) 1 cap
22 Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors) 14 caps, 2 conversions, 2 penalties, 2 drop-goals, 16 points
23 Peter Murchie (Glasgow Warriors) uncapped

I really do despair sometimes. Our world class no 6 playing out of position at open-side, with one of the NH's most effective 7's on the bench. That selection is a microcosm of Andy Robinson as Scotland coach. A refusal to adapt to a new situation (Rennie being injured), and a reluctance to trust players who don't fall into his "favourites" category.

This decision is made more annoying by the fact that we could all see it coming! As for Murchie over Tonks, i cant understand that one either - anybody who watches the pro game in Scotland knows that Tonks has been playing very well, whilst Murchie will never been any more than a solid club pro.

His selections can best be described as shambolic.

Barclay on the bench could loses us the game. he is the man we need at the breakdown