Cardiff Blues - Only chance

After this weekend, with the Ospreys losing to Munster, the Blues need only to win 1 of their 2 remaining games to qualify for the semi finals.

However if we want to stand any chance of winning the ML, we need to aim higher...

Currently the Blues sit 5 points behind 2nd place Leinster.

With the HC on their minds I would expect Leinster to beat Glasgow in Dublin next week - but importantly, not to get a BP.

If that happens then the Blues need 1TBP and 2 wins from their last 2 games to get a home SF, as long as they score 10 more points in their 2 games than Leinster in their 1, to give themselves a higher PD.

If we acheive this then the semi finals will be,

Munster v Leinster
Blues v Ulster

Although we lost at home to Ulster this year, we did do the double over them last year and in a semi final I would back us to do the buisness.

In the other semi, I would expect Leinster to continue their good record against Munster and win.


That would leave us with our best chance of winning the ML (though its still a very slim chance :/) with the final being

Blues vs Leinster - in Cardiff.



So now all we have to do is win 2 away derbies and learn to score tries........I live in hope.

To be honest i would expect the Blues to have a real hard time against the Dragons at Dave, and depending on results a bit of a battle witht the Scarlets at PYS (as they can still qualify if the Blues and Ospreys fail to win any more matches). Also I would expect Leinster to pick up a fairly easy five point win against Galsgow, unless Galsgow can up their game considerably compared to their last outing.

So I would expect the play-offs to be Munster, Leinster, Blues, Ulster. Which would give the semis of
Munster V Ulster
Leinster V Blues

Also isn't the final played at the home of the winner between 1st and 4th placed sides? So that would be either in Munster or whoever plays them.