Green shoots of recovery or double/triple dip recession

The beginning of a new international season is almost upon us in the north. Super 15 rugby is not far off either. The rugby rest period is becoming increasingly like a an average bloke's holidays: a few weeks off in summer and not much else.

Rugby has always been a physical game but with many more games in the international era in both club/provincial and international rugby, increased player sizes and power, injuries will invariably play a more prominent role in management thinking. We all know settled combinations are the best way to improve a team but with retirements, players heading offshore and injuries, how many teams can honestly say they have a settled team from which to choose?

Incorporating new players into a team is a difficult juggling act but one that is becoming increasingly necessary. Sometimes this forcing of the hand can work in your favour. Look at the locking combination tried out for England last autumn as a glowing example. Sometimes injuries can be a blessing in disguise in that a player is forced to rest and recover and you have no choice but to find alternatives. Other times, you are faced with plenty of options but no clear solutions. Look at the centre pairing for Ireland or the Wales or Scottish fly halves as classic examples of that. In the case of Australia or SA, things get so dire and ludicrous with injuries that you discover what your team is made of and you learn an important lesson that playing as a team is greater than the sum of its individual parts.

So I'd like you to look at the different areas of your team and identify where you think your team has taken a stride forward or taken a couple of steps back. By all means suggest players you'd like to see more of and players you'd like to see less of.

For NZ, I'll start with the back three. Julian Savea is a work in progress. He came into the team and scored a hat-trick against Ireland. Then he was dumped in the third test and came back in the test away in Argentina. He cemented his spot in the autumn tests. He is suspect under the high ball and much like the player to which he is often likened - Jonah Lomu - he has issues on defence particularly in turning. But there's no denying the kid has an eye for the try line and one can't fault his strike rate. What impressed me as the year progressed was his work rate and he not only scored tries but he went looking for the ball inside and set up tries. Add in the ever reliable Cory Jane and that staggering fend, the brilliance of Dagg and his ability to create space in tight situations and turn a game and things look good when this team have their best players available. People like Jane or Barrett can cover fullback but we don't have too many options to call on if Dagg gets injured. Ben Smith is versatile, Richard Kahui is unreliable with injuries but all eyes will be on him for the Chiefs. Gear is waiting in the wings so to speak and proved in SA that he can still contribute in the big games but this Super 15 will be interesting to see the form of Andre Taylor and some other wingers.

The centre pairing. Tamati Ellison got injured late last year but he looked comfortable at test level. Ma'a Nonu was a mixed bag last year but is still an important player. Yet another shift for him in the Super 15 and will he deliver in black? Conrad Smith had a shocker against England but has still a winning percentage in the 90s and was an inspiration to the Hurricanes last year. I expect him to come back stronger. Ben Smith has proven he can step in but Richard Kahui in this position and stringing games together would make me a lot more optimistic about the future for this vital pairing. With the absence of SBW, we look thin in stocks in these two positions and Hansen will be hoping a few players put their hands up for contention.

Halfback and flyhalf. Aaron Smith was a mixed bag for me. Got to love that quick pass but the AB tactic of not committing players to rucks meant he was isolated and pressured too many times and made to look ordinary. His option taking like in the Brisbane test when he made a break but passed to the wrong player and kicking were poor at times. TJ Perenara has a bit more bulk on him and doesn't give away too much in terms of service. I'd like to see him given a crack and Smith to be told to work on a few certain things. TK Barlow didn't have much in terms of game time in black but he looked nervous and ordinary at times in his brief appearances. Weepu still can contribute from time to time but he is too inconsistent and his fitness is too up and down for this level. Definitely an improvement from Cowan but that's not saying much. Halfback sees plenty of options but no one yet has put up their hand and cemented a spot. Early days yet but still much improvement to come. Has the time come for Carter to stop goal kicking? Maybe Dagg could step up and fill in this role. It seems to be the cause of Carter's niggling injuries so give him a break from kicking duties and see if that has a positive effect. Against Scotland we saw something of Carter that we haven't seen much from Carter of late: attacking the line and stepping his way around the defence to release players around him. Carter is still number one but although he can still control a game we don't see enough of him turning a game in terms of his attacking ability. At least in terms of Cruden and Barrett we have players to fill in who look comfortable and assured at this level.

Back row. McCaw is on a break from Super 15 duties. That is a good thing if he's serious about making 2015. Cane was tried and Messam made a comeback. It seems the hole left by Kaino is still there. On the days like London, Dunedin, Christchurch, Brisbane where we look impotent at the breakdown, how much responsibility can be laid at the feet of Messam? Has the time come for McCaw to make a move to 6 and a new player like Sam Cane or a Ardie Savea to make an appearance at 7? Read still figures at 8 but do we have cover from players like Vito who in my view operate best at 7 and 8 and not 6? Kaino can still make a comeback in 2014 but he has lost a lot of bulk in Japan. His return to the punishing machine of 2011 won't happen overnight. Do the selectors place faith in him based on 2011 or do they redefine McCaw?

Locks. Retallick and Whitelock seem lightweight as a combination to me. Romano is a bigger lad and has a bigger presence shipping the ball up or on defence. He also has better hands. The absence of Brad Thorn means a big mean rig is required and if you play Retallick and Whitelock together, I just don't get that feeling of grunt in the scrum or power on defence or taking the ball up. Romano is by no means the full picture but I haven't seen anyone else who can at least pass the ball, take the ball up and drive a player back on defence like he can. This is an area where work definitely needs to be done.

Front row. The new laws for props on the bench will make versatility less of a necessity. But we seem to be worryingly thin in the propping stakes, notably at loosehead. Ben Franks may well prosper from a move away from Canterbury and make a better fist (no violent pun intended) of coming on at his favoured tighthead position. Mealamu and Hore are not getting any younger and Hika Elliot's fortunes may be mirrored by his fight for charity loss. Who do we have coming through that can hope to match the experience and performance of these two veterans? Nobody of course but life after Hore and Mealamu has to be figured into short term plans to make their eventual loss easier to bear.

Like injuries, you can never plan for or forsee every possible area in terms of incumbents or cover. You need to be mindful of areas of weakness and positions you need to find improvements. A team sheet is constantly changing in terms of providing for a player's absence. Som changes will be successful and the machine maintains its oiled and honed efficiency. Other times it comes off the rails and repairs have to be done. Where are those problem areas for your team, where do you feel comfortable and what gives you cause for optimism or doubt in the future?

I am not going to name players, the reason for that is changes are happening too fast and what is suitable today is gone tomorrow.

Take the example of the locking pair for South Africa last year. juandre Kruger at last gets his call up to the springboks, plays a shade under 10 tests in the year, and then decides to sign a contract for Racing Metro.

Club rugby in more ways than one is ruining test rugby.

It is not just the signings by fatcats in pinstripe suits that flash around big cheques, but also the sheer volume of rugby played by clubs.

Test rugby truly stands a distant second when it comes to priority. The reality is players are running after money, forget about the weak south african currency, it is everyone that is starting to suffer firstly from the hands of the French clubs, then the english clubs and any morsels left over go to Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

I read Australians are insisting that their Franchises include more foreigners across the board as well.

Rugby has become a result of its money hungry, greedy broadcasters and administrators.

We will see less and less how international coaches will be able to field their best plaers from a country, you will also see less and less that teams are represented by home grown talent.

Test rugby is supposed to be the elite of rugby, sadly it is no longer the case, it is just another club, but more in the style of barbarians, you take what you have available and make the best of it.

I am slowly but surely beginning to lose faith and interest in rugby.

when I watch Heineken cup I see plenty of Saffers, when I watch South African rugby I see plenty of South Africans, these days rugby has very little to do with pride, and everything to do with who can pay the most.

Sad.

I stopped supporting any specific local teams because players jumped around so much the provinces weren't represented by their own talent anymore, now everything is just going mish mash.

Rugby when it went Professional is obviously going to be driven by cash,the Nh scene is a joke.Clubs having 8 or 9 overseas players in there starting squads.Australia already have many Kiwis playing in there franchises but apart from the Rebels not many overseas players.
Post RWC there is generally a exedous of players either retiring or going for a pension.
NZ have started to replace the veterans slowly but now have several options at 9,10 and 7.The next generation are coming thru Luke Whitelock,Sam Cane,brad Shields,Matt Todd etc.
Brad Thorn is a one of there arn`t many grunt Locks in the NZ game,BUT now they have real Lineout options at 4.
Hookers need replacing soon but the Prop Bench thing is not being used in the Super series.So versatile props will still be needed Wyatt Crockett is an excellent Loose head,as is Owen Franks on the tight.Young sters are there in plenty coming thru. 2013 may well be a watershed for Nz and they will lose a lot of matches this year.But long term the conveyor belt will keep churning them out.
.

Kia,What do you mean? a couple of weeks off in summer.
While you guys have been freezing up in the NH, down here its been sevens, sevens, sevens,,, club, Provincial, and Nationals.
and if players arent involved in Sevens then its pre season training.

Rugby in New Zealand never sleeps...

That's not the same as playing matches laurie. That's where the real wear and tear occurs. Only training also allows a mental break from the sport. But granted, the off season like I said is effectively only a few weeks off from playing.

Sounds like the cricket euphoria has brought you down on rugby Biltong. It's embarrassing to see the results so thankfully I don't get to watch cricket anymore. I can see why you're feeling so downbeat though. Something has to be done by the IRB introducing salary caps and foreign player restrictions if they want test rugby to remain the pinnacle of the game.

The cricket is currently great Kia, thankfully, the one thing cricket has over rugby is how the international season takes presidence over the rest.

The difference with cricket though is it is also an individual sport within a team sport. rugby on the other hand are most effective with players in combination with who will compliment them the best.

When there is such a number of players moving around and not playing as combinations in your domestic leagues a lot goes amiss.

The IRB is to weak and ignorant to do anything about it.

It is time SARU simply says enough is enough. Only local players play in the international representative teams, and if we then don't perform as well as we want , at least we can be proud that it is our team playing.

There is something to be said for pride.

I rather lose with my own countrymen than a bunch of foreigners.

Money talks, we now buy talent at club level, super rugby level, international level etc.

It isn't the same game anymore.

Biltong wrote:
I stopped supporting any specific local teams because players jumped around so much the provinces weren't represented by their own talent anymore, now everything is just going mish mash.

Can tell you it's not just rugby that's happening. As you know back in Oz rugby is pretty small fry, no one supports any local sides, but league, that's a different matter. And the same thing has happened, whereas we used to go to the club house for nights out, quiz nights, before and after games where there's a really good chance of meeting and chatting with the players, most of them local lads, now the club house has moved to central coast, sides have merged with age old rivals to form a shadow of the old clubs, players now shower and drive off in their sponsored car away from the grounds without meeting any fans ( but after the telly interviews ). And all that was to streamline the league...

Sorry, back ontrack to rugby, I do think the players play too much now, but that must be down to our demands for high quality games all year round? Tests for me are the passionate and important games, and I think for the majority of the players too, but can see club money now becoming the main driver, which will be a shame.

Bring on the sxv I say. Lots of good quality matches every week is a good way to watch rugby. Ive no doubt that the AB success in the professional era is largely down to this one tournament, as installed in 1996. We pumped for five sides back then, and theyre all still there, 3 having won finals at least once and all having played finals. And all 5 looking strong again this year with a nice mixture and balance present through them all.

From it we've gained a regular feed to the AB's where the standard in most cases has proved high enough to help maintain the AB winning %'s.

Without this one tournament I doubt the AB's would have the %'s they have had since 1996.

Doesnt pay anywhere the best money, but without a shadow of a doubt produces the best players in the world. Wouldnt have it any other way.

I'd like to see Tests reinforced as the pinnacle, but I'm worried that in this day and age money hungry professionalism will mean that if that happens, then we'd probably have a scenario where Tests and Tests only happen which will dilute their quality. Eg clubs and provinces essentially become the "minor leagues" and a global season would happen but having teams play 25 tests a year with extended squads and noone bothering about the grassroots. That'd be a nightmare for me. I love seeing the ABs walk out of the tunnel and I'd hate for that feeling to go due to saturation. Mind you since the clubs are the ones with all the power that scenario at least is unlikely at present.

It won't be that difficult to find a balance Disney.

12 tests a year is fine, I don't think it needs to be increased.

The problem in the SH is the Super XV. It is too big, too unwiledy and takes up too much time.

If it is going to remain it needs to be reduced.

Biltong wrote:It won't be that difficult to find a balance Disney.

12 tests a year is fine, I don't think it needs to be increased.

The problem in the SH is the Super XV. It is too big, too unwiledy and takes up too much time.

If it is going to remain it needs to be reduced.

Yeah Biltong. Its now so big the last two have had to be fragmented to maximise the home venues but also bring in the concept of not playing every side- one that has obvious benefits to sides who draw the top 2 or 3 as byes.

And the sides are diluted by injury or fatigue- no one can play up to 20 sxv matches then 16 or so test matches so the result is lesser quality sides purely because of the number of matches. McCaw is simply not playing sxv and the French because hes had to play too much before it and be ready for matches after it- "not playing rugby- All Black test matches included- just to be able to play rugby"- ridiculous.

All this to appease the number of seats sold...

And frankly if I was going to consider going to a match and knew McCaw and DC and a couple of others werent playing- because theyre 'stuffed' I might not even bother going either. They'll need to take notice if watering down of sides impacts no. of seats sold eventually. The ITM has already been impacted by that with hardly any AB's playing- just dont know if the numbers are any worse than before.

Evening Taylorman, well perhaps it is time we as SH rugby supporters start a petition or something to that effect, I just don't like the direction rugby is going at the moment.

Looking at last year's test matches, we rarely played our best Xv, most likely we didn't even get to see 10 of our best on average per match.

Not happy at all.