The best 8

so here we are, the group stages are done and we have the 1/4 final draw.

Harlequins v Munster
Clermont Auvergne v Montpellier
Toulon v Leicester
Saracens v Ulster

So congrats to the teams above but my question is simple...

are the 8 teams through to the knock out stages the best 8 in Europe at the moment? discuss!

its not like the old super rugby format where everyone plays everyone else.

The HC pools are a sometimes a little unfair. This year we had arguably the top 2 club sides in Europe in the same pool. Claremont and Leinster. Leinster were just not quite good enough and lost both matches... doesn't mean they in theory couldn't beat all the other sides in the final 8.

Not saying Leinster are hard done by... sometimes you get easy pools sometimes hard... you just hope over time they even themselves out.

yes...they got through and the others did not. with the vagaries of different pool strengths it is always possible that a qualifier would lose to another side who narrowly missed out, but at the end of the day destiny was in their own hands and if they did not qualify then they did not deserve to.

Pretty much yes.

The English sides are 1,2,3 in the AP.
Ulster are no 1 in the Pro12.
Toulon and Clermont are no 1 and 2 in the Top 14.

Over the season Leinster and Toulouse have been better than Munster and Montpellier but the latter two qualified for the next round so deserve to be there.

Bear in mind both are best runners up. Leinster and Toulouse arguably had the toughest pools.

I can honestly say that every one of those games looks amazing and will be a cracker. Toulon v Leicester is the pick of the bunch in my eyes. That is going to be a proper game of rugby. Are they the best teams in Europe, I’d say that 6/8 of them are certainly and the other two (I don’t want to name any names) are bloody good teams anyway. You wouldn’t want to play any of these teams if offered.

I think the reason Leinster didn't make the knock-out stages was more dowm to injuries earlier in the season than just the fact that they had Clermont in their group.

They were very nearly overturned by Exeter in Dublin. They are looking much more like the Leinster we know now that they have their big guns back.

Last season we had Clermont and Tigers in our group and got to the knock outs.

There is no doubt that the competition is a wee bit poorer for the lack of an in form Leinster.

MrsP wrote:I think the reason Leinster didn't make the knock-out stages was more dowm to injuries earlier in the season than just the fact that they had Clermont in their group.

They were very nearly overturned by Exeter in Dublin. They are looking much more like the Leinster we know now that they have their big guns back.

Last season we had Clermont and Tigers in our group and got to the knock outs.

There is no doubt that the competition is a wee bit poorer for the lack of an in form Leinster.

Personally I think the quarter final line ups look excellent.

It's tough on Leinster, but thems the breaks.

Toulon and Harliquins had easy groups, and Tigers and Clermot had tough groups,there is a lot in the luck of the draw.

However Leinster and Toulouse will really add to the Almin, and I'm sure will attract a lot more viewers to it. Even neutrals will be looking at the results in it for a change

Quins and Toulon had easy groups, but you cant really argue they havent qualified on merit. They are top sides. Its only really Montpellier who have snuck in, and they are no mugs.
Its one of the strongest line ups for some time.

Sarries vs Ulster is a huge one, really tough to call. The others Id expect to go with the home teams.

PSW might difficult for you to call but not for me.

It's funny looking at the ERC rankings.

The 8 HC quarter finals in order:

11th Harlequins vs 4th Munster
7th Clermont vs 30th Montpellier
12th Toulon vs 9th Leicester
20th Saracens vs 8th Ulster

ERC rankings

I think Ulster are the away team with the best chance, alot wil depend on players returning from injury.

We have an injury crisis at present but most should be back for this game, it depends if any get injuried in mean time, likewise Sarries could enter an injury crisis between now and then, personally I'd stil it is 50/50 at present, but will wait to nearer the time, as form and who's available will have a big saying on this game.

To be missing players of the Calaber of Bowe, Muller, Ferris and Payne (these ones would start for nearly any club in the world), and a host of quality players, (just a level below these) and still win in France in quite an achievement.

Sarries, looked good in qualifing as well, so we'll have to see what teams they will be able to field then and form before we can make a call.

home 1/4 wins followed by home semi-final wins leaving Sarries V Clermont final.....will take a great performance from someone to alter that outcome, but always possible. Sport would be boring if entirely predictable.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:ERC rankings

At least Cardiff isn't in tier 1 anymore, also Clermont will be in tier 1 next season. So its slowly getting better.

Euro table is better for current form (last 30 games)

http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Rugger&file=latest

Think ERC rankings should apply something like they do but extended to last 60 games.

3rd Harlequins vs 10th Munster
1st Clermont vs 9th Montpellier
4th Toulon vs 8th Leicester
5th Saracens vs 2nd Ulster

On first reflection I would say home wins across the board but despite maybe not being the forces they once were teams like Munster and Leicester still know what it takes to win when need be.

Hmm... I hadn't noticed that Quins have been quietly climbing the Euro table over the last few weeks.

IIRC, Eurotable's score is based on the mechanism the IRB uses for international rankings, which was calculated to try to provide a good prediction of the outcome. The IRB reckons that home advantage is worth around 3 points in the ranking mechanism.

Eurotable doesn't state the "home advantage" figure in their model, but applying the IRB figures:
Harlequins (91.86 + 3) should have enough to beat Munster (75.91)
Clermont (100 + 3) should romp home against Montpellier (77.20)
Toulon (88.44 + 3) should be fairly comfortable against Leicester (80.57)
but Saracens (87.16 + 3) will still be at a slight disadvantage against Ulster (94.54)

So we have two games where there's about a 10-point difference between the teams (which Eurotable thinks is quite a significant gap), one where there's a whopping 25-point gap, and one where there's a 5-point gap. Ulster will fancy their chances in an evenly balanced game, Munster and Leicester will know that they face an uphill struggle, and Clermont should win at a canter. That sounds about right, actually.

Personally, I think Quins have the beating of Munster, especially at the Stoop. They were a better team when we faced them at Thomond Park two years ago, and Quins were a less mature one. OK, Quins had the advantage of surprise and maybe Munster weren't as committed to the Amlin as they would have been to the HEC - but COS's record in preparing the team for (non-LV) knockout matches is P6 W5 - the only loss coming against Toulon last year, where he rested Evans and Robshaw (i.e. not taking it very seriously, then).

Leicester will be doing their homework on Toulon and if anyone can find a way to stifle at home them it's the Tigers. Sarries, I imagine, will play their usual gameplan, which means Ulster can't afford any indiscipline or mistakes. No idea what Montpellier can do to contain Clermont, though.

Poorfour wrote:Hmm... I hadn't noticed that Quins have been quietly climbing the Euro table over the last few weeks.

IIRC, Eurotable's score is based on the mechanism the IRB uses for international rankings, which was calculated to try to provide a good prediction of the outcome. The IRB reckons that home advantage is worth around 3 points in the ranking mechanism.

Eurotable doesn't state the "home advantage" figure in their model, but applying the IRB figures:
Harlequins (91.86 + 3) should have enough to beat Munster (75.91)
Clermont (100 + 3) should romp home against Montpellier (77.20)
Toulon (88.44 + 3) should be fairly comfortable against Leicester (80.57)
but Saracens (87.16 + 3) will still be at a slight disadvantage against Ulster (94.54)

So we have two games where there's about a 10-point difference between the teams (which Eurotable thinks is quite a significant gap), one where there's a whopping 25-point gap, and one where there's a 5-point gap. Ulster will fancy their chances in an evenly balanced game, Munster and Leicester will know that they face an uphill struggle, and Clermont should win at a canter. That sounds about right, actually.

Personally, I think Quins have the beating of Munster, especially at the Stoop. They were a better team when we faced them at Thomond Park two years ago, and Quins were a less mature one. OK, Quins had the advantage of surprise and maybe Munster weren't as committed to the Amlin as they would have been to the HEC - but COS's record in preparing the team for (non-LV) knockout matches is P6 W5 - the only loss coming against Toulon last year, where he rested Evans and Robshaw (i.e. not taking it very seriously, then).

Leicester will be doing their homework on Toulon and if anyone can find a way to stifle at home them it's the Tigers. Sarries, I imagine, will play their usual gameplan, which means Ulster can't afford any indiscipline or mistakes. No idea what Montpellier can do to contain Clermont, though.

One small factor you have missed in your calculations - Saracens are unbeaten at home this season in all competitions. Bear in mind that they don't actually have a proper home either makes this more impressive.

The Amlin skews any rankings a bit. Many teams treat it like the LV

All really close games and could honestly go either way. But for once all the teams are there on merit and are pretty much the best teams that could have gone through.

Harlequins v Munster- Harlequins unless they go down to 14 men should have enough for Munster. But then teams like Munster have a habit of pulling these games from the jaws of defeat.

Clermont Auvergne v Montpellier- Clermont look pretty unstoppable at the moment but Montpelliers final game was a bit of a marker.

Toulon v Leicester- Like Clermont but not as good or rounded, Leicester like Munster have a knack of just doing enough.

Saracens v Ulster- Saracens have looked pretty sharp in Europe, if they contain Ulster early then they'll win it, Ulster would need to score alot to win.

I think the last eight is about right. I would go for 4 home wins, but all should be close and very good watching.

If you like a forward dominated game, you're going to be in clover with Sarries v Ulster - two massive packs will just kick the poo out of each other for 80 minutes with Pienaar and Farrell clipping over the goals. Farrell is dead-eye at the moment and I think that Sarries genuinely believe it's their year.

Clermont v Montpellier - with my one eye firmly blinking, I don't mind as who wins as long as neither Beattie nor Hines get injured. Clermont are a juggernaut when on a roll and their backs will make the difference here. Difficult to look past them.

Tigers v Toulon - correctly called by most people as the tie of the round. Toulon struggle when they don't get front foot ball and that sort of disruption is a Leicester specialty. I'd like to see Toulon in the semis and I think that they will have just enough to make it.Wilkinson steps up for games like these.

Quins v Munster - Munster played out of their skins to get here and have Zebo to thank for a lot of their points and opportunities - the best Irish wing by miles for the moment. I'd love to see the lads in red take it but Quins have been much more consistent and can hit on the break as well as any other team left in the competition.

I don't think Leinster were hard done by, but they were decemated with injuries early on, we have only just started seeing the real Leinster now they have their full compliment back, in any other group they progress IMHO.

I think the ties of the round are certainly the Toulon-Tigers game and the Sarries-Ulster game.

Toulon have the superstars and the bench to marmalise most teams, but Tigers have shown a resilience this year that was sorely lacking last season... And Castro will want to look good to his new employers...

Ulster vs Sarries. Now I make no excuses, I am an Ulster supporter... But this is one hell of a match-up. Ulster's pack has been destroying teams for fun (see Afoa turning Forrestier inside out on Saturday or Court making Michael Bent look like a ragdoll) and have a back row when fit that will punish teams (Ferris, Henry, Williams)

Add Pienaar, Payne, Gilroy and Trimble and the backs will score. Whether its tries from the back three or from Pienaar's boot...

Sarries have a big pack, and an even bigger bench. But sometimes they forget how to score tries... And that could cost them against an Ulster team that scores for fun (39 tries in the Pro12 this season...)

If form is anything to go by then Munster aren't in the best 8. Perhaps not Montpellier either, how are they doing in the Top 14? The other 6 do look very hard to beat. I'd also throw teams like Leinster and Toulouse back into the mix for best 8.

If the revolutions carry on as they are at the moment then we can probably expect one of Wasps or Gloucester to be in or around the top 8 next season as an out side bet.

yappysnap wrote:All really close games and could honestly go either way. But for once all the teams are there on merit and are pretty much the best teams that could have gone through.

Harlequins v Munster- Harlequins unless they go down to 14 men should have enough for Munster. But then teams like Munster have a habit of pulling these games from the jaws of defeat.

Clermont Auvergne v Montpellier- Clermont look pretty unstoppable at the moment but Montpelliers final game was a bit of a marker.

Toulon v Leicester- Like Clermont but not as good or rounded, Leicester like Munster have a knack of just doing enough.

Saracens v Ulster- Saracens have looked pretty sharp in Europe, if they contain Ulster early then they'll win it, Ulster would need to score alot to win.

Surely so long as we score one point more than Sarries...

Saracens v Ulster

A lot of people are going for a Saracens win here, and to be fair I recon its near 50/50.

But I have faith that Ulster can win away at Saracens, we went to Clermot last year (I'd say it was a harder away ground) and nearl got the win, Ulster this year are a better team than last year.

Personally I think it will come down to who takes the field, at Ulster we have a bit of a long injury list, we need most of these players back and on form, it will also depend on if Sarries pick up injuries. I see this as 50/50 at present but as an Ulster fan have faith that we have the ablity to do it.

Only as in Saracens have proved that they are quite happy to go a score or two behind and rely on their gameplan to make up that deficit and go on to win.

Saracens unbeaten at home and Ulster have only lost two games this season - in one of them we played our reserves, should be a great match.

Close enough the best 8.

I'm just worried what playing on the artificial surface if that happens will do to Ferris knee. To be quite honest if we didn't get a home quarter final and we had to pick a side to travel to it probably would have been Saracens. We will off course not want to be as bad of with Injury as we are now but no team would so I guess that goes without saying. We are more than capable of beating Sarries away with a full team, minus Bowe who almost certainly wont be there.

yappysnap wrote:If the revolutions carry on as they are at the moment then we can probably expect one of Wasps or Gloucester to be in or around the top 8 next season as an out side bet.

I would agree with that. English club rugby looks as if it is getting very strong again.

Wasps have put a strong side together this year but it's built on a bit of a house of sand financially, the vultures are already picking off some of the players whilst the old ones keep getting older. They will also have to learn how to defend to mount a serious hc campaign.

Bath are the english club most likely to crash the party. They have massively underperformed the last few years despite trying to Toulon a top class squad. It's possible that at some point the will get the mix right and suddenly click.
As things are though they might not even get into next years hc

I'd have thought Glaws are closer to putting it all together than Bath (stir, stir). They don't have quite the array of famous names, but now that they've got a decent coach they are starting to perform. I also wonder if there are deeper problems at Bath. Have they really dealt with the hangover of the cocaine-and-culture issues of a few years back?

p.s. I like the verb "to Toulon"...

Everyone seems delighted with the quality of the teams through to the quarters.

This is a great competition.

Why do we need to change it?

MrsP wrote:Everyone seems delighted with the quality of the teams through to the quarters.

This is a great competition.

Why do we need to change it?

To improve the quality of the group stages and strengthen the amlin

Kingshu wrote:Saracens v Ulster

A lot of people are going for a Saracens win here, and to be fair I recon its near 50/50.

But I have faith that Ulster can win away at Saracens, we went to Clermot last year (I'd say it was a harder away ground) and nearl got the win, Ulster this year are a better team than last year.

Personally I think it will come down to who takes the field, at Ulster we have a bit of a long injury list, we need most of these players back and on form, it will also depend on if Sarries pick up injuries. I see this as 50/50 at present but as an Ulster fan have faith that we have the ablity to do it.

It's not 50/50 with home advantage. Ulster are not so good that they negate that. Ulster are no Leinster or Clermont IMO. I think Ulster have proved they are a very good side with their win record this season but the two sides they have lost to this season have been beaten by Saracens (in Saints case twice).

I think a lot of Ulster fans underestimate the Saracens side and I can't understand why.

I hope we are not underestimating Sarries but there are teams in this competition which we would have been less pleased to be drawn against. I would think you feel the same way about Ulster.

Saints beat us by one point at Ravenhill but we did a pretty good job on them at the Gardens. The team we sent to Thomond was pretty much our Ravens.

It should be a great game!

It's all about perception.

To be honest at home the only side I wanted to avoid was Clermont. We have beaten every other side in fairly recent times (not Montpellier and Ulster because we haven't faced them).

There is a bit of uncertainty because Saracens and Ulster haven't played each other in a long time.

Personally beshocked I think Ulster are a slightly better team than Saracens (I would be Biased), others I'm sure will disagree, but its my opinion. With Saracens then being at home it brings it to evens, in my eyes.

The bookies agree with you Saracens 4/9 Ulster 7/4, and there're normally pretty good. Didn't think there would be that big a differrence, expected Sarries to be slight favs.

Most of the games I see the home side winning, Ulster would be the ones with best chance of causing an upset, then Munster I think, the others not much chance of an upset.

Munster? Really? OK, if you say so.

I think Saracens would be slight favourites but I am very confident we can get a result there. Of the two teams Beshocked noted we lost to this season we also have beaten, both Munster and Northampton away from home. Of all the away ties we could have got this was the 'easiest', relatively speaking of course because they are a good team. If they actually had their own long term ground with a proven atmosphere then the away tie would be more daunting. The Allianz will be a new ground so to speak if they get permission to add 5,000 seats for the match. If it is at Twickenham or Wembley then its a neutral venue and you can be assured of a rather big and noisy Ulster contingent though hopefully there will be more class shown by the announcer than previous matches.

Glas I think most people would back Harlequins, but you should know by now never to write Munster off. They have got big results against much better teams than Harlequins when few expected to over the years. Personally I don't see it happening this time. Outside 10 I don't think Harlequins offer a great deal apart from Brown. I think their excellent backrow will help the pack dominate Munster.

If I had to bet I would put my money on two Anglo-French semi finals, with perhaps a Clermont v Toulon final.

I haven't written them off, but even they would concede the odds are stacked against them somewhat on this one. Then again, England may call more heavilly on the Quins than any other side, a few injuries, loss of form...

Hookisms and Hyperbole you forget that most of the time the Sarries team don't really care where they play their "home" games.

It's more important that Sarries are not playing at Ravenhill than where we do play you.

I know it will be a tough game. You're a very strong side - I just think bar Clermont/Leinster on "home" turf we can and will beat anyone.

The advantage of playing at Allianz Park is Saracens will have the edge in familiarity and be more used to the pitch.

Twickenham is obviously will be familiar to Ulster but I would actually like to play you there.

Saracens have a very high number of "casual" fans because of the huge catchment area. If they can somehow get these "casual" fans come in their droves you'll see a significant boost in attendance numbers.

I think the winner of the Sarries-Ulster game will make it into the final and likely be beaten by Clermont.

Hookisms and Hyperbole wrote:Glas I think most people would back Harlequins, but you should know by now never to write Munster off. They have got big results against much better teams than Harlequins when few expected to over the years. Personally I don't see it happening this time. Outside 10 I don't think Harlequins offer a great deal apart from Brown. I think their excellent backrow will help the pack dominate Munster.

Quins know better than to underestimate Munster, but essentially the same squads met two years ago at Thomond and since then I would say that Munster have begun to slip a little from their (very high) plateau whereas Quins are still improving.

Messrs Care, Botica, Turner-Hall, Lowe, Monye, and Williams might take issue with your view that the Quins backline don't have much to offer outside of Evans and Brown. The other thing to bear in mind is that in most positions Quins have a replacement who is really pushing the "first XV" player to start - Dickson, Botica, Smith, Casson [1], Hopper, Stegmann and Chisholm is a seriously good backline, especially considering it's a backup.

[1] You may not have heard of him, but he's seriously challenging JTH for a starting berth and his win/loss ratio is over 80%

J Beattie

Opps should read the rest of the post, not just the title

Question for Ulster fans: what's your perception of Mark Mccall? He is obviously Saracen's Director of Rugby now but he coached your team. According to wiki he won a Magner's League title.

Is he thought of fondly? Why did he leave?

Poorfour let's be honest it's not the most star studded backline but it's been very effective. Also Hookisms and Hyperbole rightly points out your most influential backline players are Evans and Browns.

Also these guys aren't getting picked by England. Would you say JTH,Lowe and Williams are being unfairly overlooked because personally I wouldn't.

He is indeed thought of fondly although I think he had a happier time as a player than as a coach, especially at the end of his time here.

He was the Captain of Ulster when we won the HEC although he was injured so couldn't play in the final.

He picked up the trophy with Davy Humphreys.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Sport/Pix/pictures/2011/4/8/1302291773649/David-Humphreys-Ulster-He-007.jpg

Riskysports wrote:J Beattie

Opps should read the rest of the post, not just the title

Risky,

Even if this thread had been about what you thought it was about, you would still be wrong!