My verdict on Nadal

He will be back and will reach close to the level he had prior to the injuries, very close to that level. I don't see any reason why he can't. I was pretty impressed with his serve, his forehand's timing is not there yet. It isn't as lethal and it is creating a lot of errors, which makes sense he has a big swing, with an extreme grip, and a lot of wrist snap on the ball; all these working pieces being synchronized and consistent will take time. It is typical for a player with a two handed backhand that when he leaves match play and returns that the backhand and serve comeback much faster than the forehand. If I don't hit for awhile the first couple of times I play my forehand is always my biggest liability, although when I am in match shape that shot is probably my biggest weapon. The two handed backhand is a shot that I can not play for a year, pick up a racquet and hit it about 95-98 percent as well as when I have my timing down. The forehand, especially Nadal's complicated and unorthodox forehand is another matter entirely. Especially, since that is the shot you look to dictate with. The serve as well since it is easier to practice on your own and involves hitting your own toss will typically comeback faster than the forehand. In particular his short forehand doesn't look as commanding. In the past dropping the ball short to Nadal's forehand, especially on clay was death sentence. Right now he still is not timing the ball well enough and taking command as easily with that shot. Again short forehand is something that requires a great deal of timing, the pros make that shot look easy, but it is actually a harder shot to hit because you are moving into the court than the baseline forehand. It is easier to hit it for a winner but if you are off it is also easier to hit for an error or in the alternate to not do enough damage with it and have your opponent expose your advanced position with a pass or with a shot that drives you back on the next ball.

Also Nadal is still tentative with his defense. And partially that is because he just is not going to sell his body out in the Brasil open. He isn't fighting as hard with his legs and I am sure once he gets back to Europe for masters and slams that he will push himself more to close down the court. He looks as fast to me, but he just isn't going to ask his body to cash any checks right now, which again is very typical for a player nursing himself back from injury.

As usual the naysayers will be proven wrong, the man will be a force to reckoned with again. Everything looks normal and natural. The movement issues are probably him taking care of himself and not selling out as much when he doesn't have to in order to defend, and of course the timing of the footwork as well on the attack isn't as crisp yet. And the forehand in terms of shots, especially one as complicated as Nadal's takes more time than the other areas to get back into shape.

Thank you socal...( and please note that this is from a Djokovic supporter..) you put it better than any Nadal fan could because we are accused of being without brains when it comes to supporting our favourite player.

I agree with you Socal.. he is still very tentative and what would you expect .. I know that Rafa is still there ... that Micky Mouse Tournament in Brazil might not have meant one iota to his detractors.. but that was a huge step for Rafa .. and one we hope will be the first in his long journey back. Its a long long road for him but he is on his way

Well put Socal. It will take him time to get back to his best but the Nadal of old is still in there.

Sharp analysis

Haddie-nuff wrote: Thank you socal...( and please note that this is from a Djokovic supporter..) you put it better than any Nadal fan could because we are accused of being without brains when it comes to supporting our favourite player.

I agree with you Socal.. he is still very tentative and what would you expect .. I know that Rafa is still there ... that Micky Mouse Tournament in Brazil might not have meant one iota to his detractors.. but that was a huge step for Rafa .. and one we hope will be the first in his long journey back. Its a long long road for him but he is on his way

This will go down though in emancipator and spuranik's super secret file to expose me as a nadal supporter. Either way that is my honest opinion we know Nadal has many detractor's who can't wait to jump on the guy, but the fact is that it takes time. And I would think it silly of him to sell out his body defensively for these warmup tourneys. You can bet your bottom dollar when he gets to RG he will be the matador again.

socal. Do you think Nadal will (if he is careful) become the all conquering matador at RG. Or do you think he will get back to his very best but that his very best matador self will not be good enough to conquer Novak?

socal1976 wrote:
.....................................................................................................................................................................You can bet your bottom dollar when he gets to RG he will be the matador again.

I agree 100% and have always felt so. As usual, he will be the man to beat - and I just don't see anyone, with the possible exception of Djoko, doing it.

And yet IMBL has told us more than once that he sees Rafa as only eighth favourite

I'm still really keen on knowing what odds you would offer me IMBL ......??

Just ahead of Almagro who is ninth.
But if Almagro wins Apaculpo this may change.

50/1

socal1976 wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote: Thank you socal...( and please note that this is from a Djokovic supporter..) you put it better than any Nadal fan could because we are accused of being without brains when it comes to supporting our favourite player.

I agree with you Socal.. he is still very tentative and what would you expect .. I know that Rafa is still there ... that Micky Mouse Tournament in Brazil might not have meant one iota to his detractors.. but that was a huge step for Rafa .. and one we hope will be the first in his long journey back. Its a long long road for him but he is on his way

This will go down though in emancipator and spuranik's super secret file to expose me as a nadal supporter. Either way that is my honest opinion we know Nadal has many detractor's who can't wait to jump on the guy, but the fact is that it takes time. And I would think it silly of him to sell out his body defensively for these warmup tourneys. You can bet your bottom dollar when he gets to RG he will be the matador again.

I dont think so socal.. you know that Rafa (the on form 100%) Rafa is the one who is closest to being your boys biggest rival. You also know like Rafa fans what we are seeing with Nadal at the moment is a mere shadow of himself.. God willing (as well as his knee) he WILL be back

Thanks IMBL.

Can I put £50 on with you at those generous odds .......??

I will gladly deposit my stake with one of the Mods, and from your perspective you stand to make an easy fifty quid ........

Haddie if his legs hold up injury wise I think he is novak's biggest rival. Right now he is not himself but he just needs match play his comeback if anything ahead of schedule I don't think we will see anything like this nadal in Paris. As long as his health is there his shots and athletic ability is still there.

I don't want to turn a (very good) thread about Nadal onto Novak but I think their first meeting this year will be of huge importance.

One of the big disappointments of Rafa succumbing to injury was that the rivalry with Novak was just getting really interesting. After a year in which Novak had got in his head, Rafa had turned the tide and re-asserted his dominance on clay.

If Rafa is not at his best in their first meeting this year and loses, will the old mental demons re-awaken? If he were to cede his most secure fortress of Monte Carlo, what questions would that raise in his mind?

It is going to be an intriguing clay season.

hawkeye wrote:socal. Do you think Nadal will (if he is careful) become the all conquering matador at RG. Or do you think he will get back to his very best but that his very best matador self will not be good enough to conquer Novak?

I think Novak will be better this clay court season then last year. He can beat nadal on clay even if nadal is healthy just like how nadal almost beat Novak at the Aussie last year. Both are talented champions and while conditions can favor one or the other it doesn't necessarily dictate the result.

HM Murdoch wrote:I don't want to turn a (very good) thread about Nadal onto Novak but I think their first meeting this year will be of huge importance.

One of the big disappointments of Rafa succumbing to injury was that the rivalry with Novak was just getting really interesting. After a year in which Novak had got in his head, Rafa had turned the tide and re-asserted his dominance on clay.

If Rafa is not at his best in their first meeting this year and loses, will the old mental demons re-awaken? If he were to cede his most secure fortress of Monte Carlo, what questions would that raise in his mind?

It is going to be an intriguing clay season.

Great post Murdoch I actually agree the first match is important but more so for Novak. Because the world number 1 will be expected to win and the pressure will be on him not on nadal. If nadal losses it is just a bump in the road to recovery. If Novak loses to nadal first match back it will dent his confidence more than nadal. If he can't beat nadal who is still rusty critics will say how does he expect to beat nadal over 5 sets at rg? I think their first meeting is more important for Novak if on clay

Socal, good point.

Any kind of loss, even a close one, will not bode well for Novak's chances at RG.

I am a little more pessimistic where Rafa is concerned.. he has a long haul and whilst he may well put up a good showing against Novak I think the outcome will be as expected.. Im not sure that it will affect Rafa´s confidence because I believe he is expecting to get knocked back by the top guns.. but what he does need is more wins (albeit against lesser players) in order to build the confidence which is so obviously lacking.. The knee issue is one I think he will overcome .. he has played with pain in the past. The mental issue is the one that concerns me more its not time that will heal that.. its only success. Wins against players in the top 10 are crucial I think. This achieved then Novak he will come gunning for you.

lags72 wrote:Thanks IMBL.

Can I put £50 on with you at those generous odds .......??

I will gladly deposit my stake with one of the Mods, and from your perspective you stand to make an easy fifty quid ........

Might as well hand me the fifty quid

Ok my analysis...

1. His ability to return is shot at the moment...timing is way way off
2. Core strength is lacking...he's slow to turn to either side...leading to poor returns too
3. Serve has more pop...just about the only thing he's probably been able to practice (without overt knee bends)
4. BH is ok but nothing special...no wide angles, no as much power as before, not as quick through the shot
5. FH is a shadow of itself...half-court, less rpm, less power, lack of wide angled shots...given its his best shot he's got more to lose on it...and boy hasn't he just. Given he's normally 10 mph quicker on average than the other top 3 he's barely hitting winners from it...he's lost major weapon
6. He looks chunky in the body and legs...he may be fit but he's still carrying extra weight
7. Very poor when pushed out wide...loss of speed, loss of ore strength and loss of ability to time balls back under pressure from outwide

Pure technique-wise he doesn't look too bad but its the combination of timing loss, strength loss, match sharpness loss that is killing him. The thing that's really hurting him is the inability to return hard serves...he used to win a lot of return games, always in the top 5...but now he's losing more games and getting pushed much deeper in clay sets than before. His returning against Zeballos was absolutely atrocious. His FH is also somewhat impotent at the moment...I never expected his timing to get shot this badly, clearly he's not been able to pick up a racquet at all. Just shows you how finely tuned these racehorses are...

So...we know he's been away ages...and it's going to take an awfully long time to correct 1-7 above. IMO he will not be anywhere near a favourite for RG. Yes strength he can work on but the timing issues are going to take a long long time to get back....may take 6-7 months. Don't underestimate the task he's got ahead of him...especially when the knee is still hurting. He must be going through all manner of mental torture at the moment as he'll know better than anyone just how far he's slipped and the uncertainty of what lies ahead. Rather him than me...if he returns to win a slam, any slam, it will be one hell of an achievememt given the top 3 around him at the moment.

I agree on the returning again another thing that takes time and is hard to replicate, I noticed his problems in breaking as well in the two matches I have seen. Good post lydian, definetly match fitness is not there either. I think so far for early in his return he is looking pretty decent, it isn't easy to come back and beat tour level players right off the bat. No amount of practice is going to be able to replicate match speed and a top notch opponent going full bore. I also feel that Djokovic is going to be the number 1 favorite at RG, I would still put Rafa as #2 favorite at this point depending on what the results are in the build up o RG.

It Must Be Love wrote:

lags72 wrote:Thanks IMBL.

Can I put £50 on with you at those generous odds .......??

I will gladly deposit my stake with one of the Mods, and from your perspective you stand to make an easy fifty quid ........

Might as well hand me the fifty quid

Okay IMBL ..... Time to see if you really do have the courage of your convictions or if it's just hot air.

I will deposit £50 with laverfan or JHM, which will be paid over to you if Rafa fails to defend his RG title successfully.

However if he DOES win then you come up with the goods as confidently quoted, ie 50/1 giving me a payout of £2500.

Happy with that .....?

lags72 wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:

lags72 wrote:Thanks IMBL.

Can I put £50 on with you at those generous odds .......??

I will gladly deposit my stake with one of the Mods, and from your perspective you stand to make an easy fifty quid ........

Might as well hand me the fifty quid

Okay IMBL ..... Time to see if you really do have the courage of your convictions or if it's just hot air.

I will deposit £50 with laverfan or JHM, which will be paid over to you if Rafa fails to defend his RG title successfully.

However if he DOES win then you come up with the goods as confidently quoted, ie 50/1 giving me a payout of £2500.

Happy with that .....?

Yes. His level is not currently high enough to win the RG, I can see that.
Lydian's post was spot on.
btw my analysis of the final:
http://www.sportpulse.net/content/nadal-back-spanish-superstar-seals-sao-paulo-title-return-tour-7027

On point 7 I disagree lydian, I think he isn't going to sell out on 50/50 balls at this stage in the recovery, that maybe why he looks poorer when pushed wide. It may not even be a conscious thing subconsciously I know when I came back from a torn hammy I just didn't defend anything like I could for weeks and weeks because I still didn't trust the leg.

Indeed socal, you can't replicate playing. Next week will tell us much.
Given he probably won't play IW/Miami...he's got maybe 4 matches next week, 5 at MC, 4 at Barcelona, 5 at Rome...he'll skip Madrid if blue again...so he's looking at 18 matches pre-RG assuming he gets to all finals. That's not many matches to recover all these issues. He's going to be vulnerable to top 8 and any hard servers where his returning will be suspect. I'd say he's going to be 3rd or 4th favourite...even Ferrer could be a threat. He needs a 130mph ball machine...

Maybe on 7 social but you need an awful lot of core strength outwide to play the balls he does, plus they require a lot of timing too. He's still quick but nowhere near as quick as he was and that's going to hurt him when having to stretch to e extremities no doubt. It's actually when a guy like Nadal takes time out that you realise how talented he was given how much loss of timing (and strength) is hurting him. You only need to lose 10% at pro level to become immersed in dogfights you'd clean up normally.

lydian wrote:Indeed socal, you can't replicate playing. Next week will tell us much.
Given he probably won't play IW/Miami...he's got maybe 4 matches next week, 5 at MC, 4 at Barcelona, 5 at Rome...he'll skip Madrid if blue again...so he's looking at 18 matches pre-RG assuming he gets to all finals. That's not many matches to recover all these issues. He's going to be vulnerable to top 8 and any hard servers where his returning will be suspect. I'd say he's going to be 3rd or 4th favourite...even Ferrer could be a threat. He needs a 130mph ball machine...

Yes I see it much the same way, but maybe I am bit more optimistic in that i still could see him being the next likeliest guy if not for Djokovic to win that tournament. Certainly, it probably won't be Nadal at his absolute best, but I think he will be much better by then in comparison to what we are seeing. It is pretty impressive to win an ATP tournament in the second one that he enters. Maybe in order to get extra match play he should enter the belgrade open!

socal1976 wrote:

lydian wrote:Indeed socal, you can't replicate playing. Next week will tell us much.
Given he probably won't play IW/Miami...he's got maybe 4 matches next week, 5 at MC, 4 at Barcelona, 5 at Rome...he'll skip Madrid if blue again...so he's looking at 18 matches pre-RG assuming he gets to all finals. That's not many matches to recover all these issues. He's going to be vulnerable to top 8 and any hard servers where his returning will be suspect. I'd say he's going to be 3rd or 4th favourite...even Ferrer could be a threat. He needs a 130mph ball machine...

Yes I see it much the same way, but maybe I am bit more optimistic in that i still could see him being the next likeliest guy if not for Djokovic to win that tournament. Certainly, it probably won't be Nadal at his absolute best, but I think he will be much better by then in comparison to what we are seeing. It is pretty impressive to win an ATP tournament in the second one that he enters. Maybe in order to get extra match play he should enter the belgrade open!

Belgrade Open is cancelled.

No sheet how did I miss that, Novak doesn't even want to play in it.

So if I put my stake with laverfan or JHM, what can you do as a reciprocal gesture of trust IMBL ?

I won't ask you to deposit the whole £2500 with them - but maybe just a tenth, ie £250 .....?? ( with the balance to follow should Rafa win)

It was impressive but Nalby was horrible in that final...another top10 player wouldn't have been so generous. Can you imagine him in these events 2-3 yrs go...he'd be hardly losing points, never mind games or sets. It's all speculation as to how fast he can recover any semblance of form...I'm not confident he's going to be a major threat at RG, I can see him having to battle every round...and it only needs a few 5 setters to blunt his charge when not fully recovered to 100%. We'll just have to see...right now I bet he's not even thinking that far ahead, his knees will be uppermost in his mind...just taking it day by day. It must be hard enough battling to get back to form without that monkey on his back every day.

Done.
But Julius is annoyed with me so he might take my money. I set him and Socal a tennis quiz- but he couldn't get any of the questions correct.

lydian wrote:It was impressive but Nalby was horrible in that final...another top10 player wouldn't have been so generous. Can you imagine him in these events 2-3 yrs go...he'd be hardly losing points, never mind games or sets. It's all speculation as to how fast he can recover any semblance of form...I'm not confident he's going to be a major threat at RG, I can see him having to battle every round...and it only needs a few 5 setters to blunt his charge when not fully recovered to 100%. We'll just have to see...right now I bet he's not even thinking that far ahead, his knees will be uppermost in his mind...just taking it day by day. It must be hard enough battling to get back to form without that monkey on his back every day.

Yes if the pain doesn't go away then it puts everything else on the back burner. It is very hard to mentally stay in it if every match, week in and week is an exercise in pain. But I view his superiority on clay over the field to be so high that Nadal healthy and with some match play under him will still be a bigger favorite than 99 percent of the rest of the field. I personally think that he enters RG in good physical condition healthwise he is my #2 favorite, at worst my #3 favorite. Last year he wouldn't lose a match at any of those tournaments but again we know that the Nadal we are seeing now is not going to be the nadal we see in a few months. As long as his leg holds up, with that being the big contingency.

I seriously doubt he would do such a thing.

I will offer to send him my £50, most probably by PayPal ; and then you can do the same with your £250. But of course you must also undertake to hand over the balance in the event of a Rafa win, thereby bringing your payout to me to a total of £2500.

It Must Be Love wrote:Done.
But Julius is annoyed with me so he might take my money. I set him and Socal a tennis quiz- but he couldn't get any of the questions correct.

Yeah, I'll take the money and put it to a good cause. And yours, lags.
Like I say, didn't really read the quiz, but one of the answers was Federer. I think the question was 'Which player do I constantly try to denigrate in a totally biased way in order to make my hero Rafa look better?'

lags72 wrote:I seriously doubt he would do such a thing.

I will offer to send him my £50, most probably by PayPal ; and then you can do the same with your £250. But of course you must also undertake to hand over the balance in the event of a Rafa win, thereby bringing your payout to me to a total of £2500.

Of course he does not mean it. He is just pre-emptively jinxing. I'd say you have about 50% chance of losing £50, and another 50% chance of breaking even. Why would you do that? Though he may be a good sport and give you your £50 back if you lose, since he knows he is not inteding to pay up if he loses.

I hear what you say summerblues, but perhaps the "jinxing" needs to be tested.

I have offered to send my £50 to Julius, and have confirmed by PM that I am ready to do so.

Let's now see if IMBL follows through on his commitment to send £250 .......

IMBL, instead of money, how about if you're so sure Rafa won't win the FO, you agree to a voluntary ban from the forum for 4 weeks if he wins it?

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Like I say, didn't really read the quiz, but one of the answers was Federer. I think the question was 'Which player do I constantly try to denigrate in a totally biased way in order to make my hero Rafa look better?'

Blinking hek. Read the quiz again.
I actually specifically say after each question 'You can't say Federer.'

lags72 wrote:
Let's now see if IMBL follows through on his commitment to send £250 .......

Absolutely, in-fact I can pay you the deposit now.
I've in a fine state financially you see- yesterday I won 16 million Ugandan dollars in the Nigerian lottery! And I can't even remember entering, I must be doubly lucky

JuliusHMarx wrote:IMBL, instead of money, how about if you're so sure Rafa won't win the FO, you agree to a voluntary ban from the forum for 4 weeks if he wins it?

had a nice loq (laugh out quietly) and then a sc (silent chuckle) at that line

OK, sure I'll agree to that as well.

But it's ok, there's still more chance I get banned for OTT- Fed-worshipping than that.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:Done.
But Julius is annoyed with me so he might take my money. I set him and Socal a tennis quiz- but he couldn't get any of the questions correct.

Yeah, I'll take the money and put it to a good cause. And yours, lags.
Like I say, didn't really read the quiz, but one of the answers was Federer. I think the question was 'Which player do I constantly try to denigrate in a totally biased way in order to make my hero Rafa look better?'

just saw this as well, had a quick mg (muffled giggle) 30-0!

Go Novak I don't want lose imbl 4 weeks is kind of harsh how about 2 weeks

3 weeks. For the crime of losing faith in Rafa. What say you IMBL?

LuvSports! wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:Done.
But Julius is annoyed with me so he might take my money. I set him and Socal a tennis quiz- but he couldn't get any of the questions correct.

Yeah, I'll take the money and put it to a good cause. And yours, lags.
Like I say, didn't really read the quiz, but one of the answers was Federer. I think the question was 'Which player do I constantly try to denigrate in a totally biased way in order to make my hero Rafa look better?'

just saw this as well, had a quick mg (muffled giggle) 30-0!

No, I actually specifically said 'you can't say federer' to all of the questions.
Unforced error by Julius, 15-15.

Julius, 3 weeks it is then.

arguing with the umpire, point award to julius 40-0

Since when was a point deducted for arguing with the umpire?
Second serve max.

Second serve. And don't call me Max.

It Must Be Love wrote:Julius, 3 weeks it is then.

Should IMBL be given an additional week of ban for the verbal diarrhea on the GOAT threads?

Hey what does IMBL get if Nadal doesn't win the french open, did I miss that part? Is a bet fair if there is no payoff that makes the risk worthwhile? IMBL how about if you win Julius has to change his name to the THE DIC(k)tator and only post as such for 3 weeks? Just a suggestion.