Who is for the Drop?

First topic message reminder :

Folks,

Wrong thread if you want to read about the possibility of Champions League football next season. This is all about the basement end where the muck and bullets are flying and all that matters is survival.

Interested in views as to who is going down. We can follow (changing) predictions and developments over the remainder of the season.

I'll start things off with my teams for the Drop:

* QPR - already some way behind and I just don't see them scoring the goals they desperately need. I'm also not convinced by Cesar between the sticks - some good saves but too Tefloneque (ie non stick) for my liking.

* Reading - don't see enough leaders on the pitch. Disastrous result yesterday as well.

* Southampton - managerial and playing inexperience may cost them dear allowing others to scramble free.

We need at least 4 points from our next 2 games to stand a chance.

Thats with Wigan losing.

Stoke hauled themselves close to safety with win home to Norwich. Wigan conceded late equaliser to spoil what would have been an excellent result against Spurs.

Newcastle in trouble 0 -2 at half time against Liverpool. Massive game for Villa on Monday.

Newcastle thumped 0 - 6. Just as well for them that they already have 37 points.

Newcastle fan, i'm not optimistic, we're dire and in freefall.

Don't worry lads, my Albion team will stuff Wigan

Well lets hope so.

Aston Villa on course for a big win against Sunderland. Pressure well and truly on Wigan now. But they do have some winnable games.

Wigan's next game, away to West Brom, looks absolutely critical

Wigan desperately need a win to keep the pressure on those above them, and to keep within 3 of Villa for the last game. Very good for Villa last night not only to get the 3 points but to swing the goal difference around so that they are now better than both Wigan and Newcastle - was almost worth an extra point to them.

Games left:
Wigan - West Brom (a), Swansea (h), Arsenal (a), Villa (h)

Newcastle - West Ham (a), QPR (a), Arsenal (h)

Villa - Norwich (a), Chelsea (h), Wigan (a)

Sunderland - Stoke (h), Southampton (h), Tottenham (a).

I think everyone above that will now be safe, although Southampton and Norwich will still be biting some finger nails if Wigan get a couple of wins.

I still think the critical match is likely to be Wigan v Villa - can see Villa drawing at Norwich (who still need a couple of points to be secure) and losing to Chelsea (still playing for a CL position), so having 38 points prior to that match. Wigan to pick up 4 points in their next 2 games, then losing to Arsenal, so 36 points. Means a Wigan win would keep them up and most likely send Villa down, but anything less and Wigan are gone. Means that a team goes down with either 37 or 38 points

I suspect Sunderland will pick up points in their two home games, so be safe enough, while Newcastle have QPR to play, so should be able to pick up 3 points there - wouldn't fancy them in the other two games.

I actually think Newcastle are in big trouble now, if Villa can beat Norwich, Wigan beat everybody but Arsenal, and Newcastle only beat QPR, does that mean Newcastle would go down?

Crimey wrote:I actually think Newcastle are in big trouble now, if Villa can beat Norwich, Wigan beat everybody but Arsenal, and Newcastle only beat QPR, does that mean Newcastle would go down?

Would be down to goal difference between Villa & Newcastle if Villa don't get anything against Chelsea.

I can't see Wigan getting three wins against Albion, Villa AND Swansea, so I think they're down

Wigan will imo get 6 points from four games. This should see them drop.

Depends - if they beat Villa, and say beat Albion, then Villa need 1 or 2 points from Norwich away and Chelsea home. Villa are still the ones in most trouble of the three potential fall-aways.

Azzy Mahmood wrote:Depends - if they beat Villa, and say beat Albion, then Villa need 1 or 2 points from Norwich away and Chelsea home. Villa are still the ones in most trouble of the three potential fall-aways.

Well they could get more points of course. I'm predicting though, a loss against Albion and Chelsea, a win against Norwich and Villa, which will be to little to late.

If Wigan beat Swansea and Villa, that puts them on 38. Say -21 goal difference.

Villa's GD will be -23 due to the 1 goal loss to Wigan. Meaning they would need 2 points to stay up, from either Norwich or Chelsea.

It all hinges on two games - Wigan vs Swansea and Wigan vs Villa. If Wigan beat Swansea, I think Villa go down.

Azzy Mahmood wrote:If Wigan beat Swansea and Villa, that puts them on 38. Say -21 goal difference.

Villa's GD will be -23 due to the 1 goal loss to Wigan. Meaning they would need 2 points to stay up, from either Norwich or Chelsea.

It all hinges on two games - Wigan vs Swansea and Wigan vs Villa. If Wigan beat Swansea, I think Villa go down.

Yeah, forgetting they had a game in hand. It's going to be close. Would love Villa and Wigan to be all square come the last day.

If we win on Saturday against Villa, and Wigan lose to West Brom, Norwich will be mathematically safe.

God I hope we win.

SO GODDAMN EXCITED!!!!!!!!!!

Would like to think we can go to CR and get something.

Point might be ok. Just depends if the Baggies beat Wigan.

Think we may have a repeat of the C1 cup. Not the same scoreline(would love that), think we may just sneak it.

Would say 1-0, but we cant keep a clean sheet, so will go with 2-1 Villa.

Think Newcastle may get a point at best against West Ham.

Are Sunderland home to Stoke? Think they will win that one.

I would just like to point out in the cup game we did make a host of changes...(Barnett, Tierney, Morison, Howson and more...)

And at Villa Park we dominated (before and after the red card...)

Many better teams have left Carrow Road empty handed this season...

C'mon now Olly it was a walk in the park for us in the C1 cup

I know it was mate, I was there

I'm absolutely buzzing for it now, really can't wait.

against the reserves westy

Ha. Should be an interesting game.

Think(hope) confidence will be high.

Gonna go with 2-1.

See if i can get 2 predictions right in a week.

Wins for Wigan and Villa mean the competition to clinch the final relegation spot is wide open.

As far as I can see even Swansea and Hammers are not totally safe on 43 points - tho it would take a highly improbable combination of results and some big swings in goal difference.

Any of the teams on 40 points or below after their next match could have a very anxious time on the last day of the season. Southampton among those not looking as safe as they were a few weeks ago.

Norwich starting to have a bit of a look of desperation about them....

Norwich, Sunderland, Newcastle and Wigan now the 4 candidates I suspect.

well, wigan i think are gunna do it again arent they!

im picking norwich

Wigan have still got Arsenal away - and the FA Cup final to come, so they may yet come up short despite their heroics.

But at the moment Norwich are the team without momentum.

After tonight's result West Ham (and Swansea) now completely safe from relegation Unless we go into administration....

A shame it didn't go to the last game but it was still a fascinating battle with so many teams involved!

Thanks for all the contributions to this thread with special honours to Olly and tigerrobins for being the first two to correctly predict that QPR, Reading and Wigan were for the drop!

Prediction maestro over here

Can we still guess.

I'm definatly going with Wigan

I'm going for Newcastle, financial irregularities will be found regarding one of their transfer window signings & they'll be deducted the points gained in each game he played.

Galted wrote:I'm going for Newcastle, financial irregularities will be found regarding one of their transfer window signings & they'll be deducted the points gained in each game he played.

With there end of season form you're probably not deducting enough points

I predict that Everton and Stoke could be in trouble next season if Phil Neville and Mark Hughes are they're new managers

the winners of the play off final, hull and stoke for me. with norwich in 17th, fulham 16th

Hull are my early pick.

Cardiff will be fine, esspicaly as they plan on spending a fair bit as well. If Stoke get the wrong man in e.g. Hughes they will be in trouble. Watford could catch a lot of people my surprise if they win the play offs, with Zola's contacts. Palace could also raise a few eyebrows next season if they (god forbid) win the play off final.

If Newcastle keep Pardew can see them having a similar season to this one.

Southampton, Hull and Palace (if they go down), otherwise Sunderland.

3 from, play off winners/cardiff/sunderland/stoke/hull.

It's probable that Hull and the playoff winners will be involved in the relegation fight - Cardiff might be OK, as they've been building a side for promotion and to play in the EPL for a couple of years and have a few quid to spend.

Southampton, Norwich (sorry Olly), Fulham (sorry to my father-in-law) and Sunderland would also be my early candidates.

I thnk Newcastle will be OK, as I can't see Cisse's form (and luck) remaining as bad as it was for most of this season.

I haven't checked back, but am pretty sure that two promoted sides have survived in each of the last 5 or so years, although there has been a bit of a trend for sides to go down after 2 years in the division.

Of the three relegated clubs, I can see Wigan mounting the best campaign for promotion and Reading doing OK. As for QPR, I can't see their big name, big money players wanting to put in the effort in the Championship, so it will be either a case of completely rebuilding the team or finishing low in the division.

Stoke
Palace/Watford
Norwich

I can see Watford getting some momentum behind them and suprizing a few teams next season. Southampton could possibly go down if their manager decides to walk otherwise they'll be safe again

18. Southampton/ West Ham/ Stoke
19. Norwich - Hughton to get the sack.
20. Hull City

Hull have an average squad and a useless PL manager.

Palace will if they go up. Not a great team at the lower level.

Watford I can see staying up.

Very well see Norwich and Villa in trouble again.

Surprised people are saying Norwich and Southampton. With the players they already have, along with adding more to the squad, i can see these 2 sides challenging for a top half finish next season.

Norwich regressed this year and I'm really unconvinced by Hughton

Every job Hughton has been in, he has done well though.

Newcastle, he was thought of very highly. Had them in a healthy league position after getting them promoted to the Prem. Wrongfully sacked.

Birmingham, one season in charge and got them to the play offs, which in the Championship is never ever easy.

Norwich, first season kept them up in style to an 11th finish as well as bringing in some decent signings. However they suffered one of the most embarrassing moments in living memory against Luton town in the cup.

Kept them up in style? Did you actually watch Norwich?

Wins over West Brom and Man City i would describe as keeping them up in style IMO.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hull go down but i am hopefully for my son anyway that they don't . They will need to win the games against the sides near to them and pick up a few shock points .

Given i don't want to go down i wont pick them

so 3 from Stoke , Southampton , Sunderland and the play off winner

Fulham will go down if they don't instill some fresh blood. The old standbys are getting even older and seldom any youngsters coming through. A bit like Stoke really in that respect.

Hull, Fulham and the other drop depending on managerial appointments, definitely not Southampton though.

Hard to tell right now. Southampton were prepared to spend some serious wedge last summer to stay up. Must think they might do the same again.

If Palace come up they'll go back down. Holloway is just too naive. Hull probably came up a year too soon too. Cardiff wont spend a lot, they claimed they were going to do that then didnt really blow the championship a new bumhole with their spending. Some of their high money players are not Prem standard.

Everyone from Swansea down has the potential to collapse into it. All we need is for Michu to go quiet, Swansea to lose Williams and replace poorly and they might struggle. West Brom overachieved and might find themselves without the quality of Lukaku. I've certainly seen West Ham have good teams take tumbles, and at the moment we have one striker on our books in Mr Maiga.

Fulham seem to do a good job of being a boring side who just pick up a few decent signings every summer without much fanfare.

Sunderland are going to undergo an overhaul if Paolo has his way, Newcastle have some quality players and a chairman who will just sack Pardew if the performances dont improve.

Villa could have another season like this. Got to bring in some quality and experience. And keep Benteke. Stoke should make some changes. Some of their players seem awful but theres a core of good ones in there to work with for a new manager and the chairman isnt scared of putting his hand in his pocket.

Norwich need a few signings too, they dug their heels in with some fight when they played poorly though. Still annoyed we didnt get to Snodgrass first, cracking player. Think there are some glaring weaknesses in there though.

Bloody hard to predict before people start spending.

NickisBHAFC wrote:Wins over West Brom and Man City i would describe as keeping them up in style IMO.

A West Brom team that was crap in 2013 and a City team that didn't give a crap