Should We Be Optimistic Or Pessimistic About Nadal's Knees?

Nadal gave a press conference yesterday at IW but after reading the reports it's difficult to figure out if there's cause for optimism or pessimism about his future play.

This from the BBC site in an article entitled "Nadal sets low expectations for return".

Rafael Nadal looked a little nervous to me. Friendly, courteous, diplomatic - all the usual Nadal qualities - but tense and twitchy as he contemplated a first hard court tournament for almost a year.

He dealt with the inevitable questions expertly as ever but caution was evident. "I am here to try my best," he said, hardly giving confidence to those who feel he can win a third title here in the California desert.

It's totally understandable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/21712212

The rest of this article was equally down beat. And yet from the same interview this more optimistic article from the ATP site entitled "Nadal optimistic for hard court transition"



Two-time former BNP Paribas Open champion Rafael Nadal is optimistic about his transition from clay to hard as he prepares for his first match in Indian Wells.

“I feel very good. I’ve practised two times here,” said Nadal. “But seriously, I understand my situation after seven months. I think it’s not the right moment to talk about the knee. I am here to try my best and that’s what I’m going to try. We’ll see how the knee responds on hard. The results on clay were positive, especially because the knee was feeling better and better every week, especially last week. Now I’m going to try here.

aspx http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/03/10/Indian-Wells-Thursday-Nadal-Optimistic-About-Hard-Cout-Transition.

So should we be optimistic or pesamistic about Nadal's knees?

I'd say you can be very optimistic about Rafa hawkeye. Certainly I am, and always have been. Even before he returned to the clay swing in such impressive form I was posting that he would get back on track very quickly (ie whenever he chose to return to competitive play). He will be a serious threat to everyone, on every surface.

However you might feel differently if you subscribe to the IMBL "eighth favourite for RG" wacky school of thought (now claimed retrospectively by IMBL to be a joke in light of recent results, although I'm much more inclined to follow the perceptive description by summerblues of it being a bit of pre-emptive jinxing by IMBL ....)

All that said, I often think you're inclined to over-analyze in superfine detail all this press comment and interview material, hawkeye.

A certain amount of analysis is fun and harmless enough BUT ......If the knees don't hold up .....if Federer does retire .... if Novak doesn't continue winning Slams ...... if Murray never makes it to Number One ..... whatever. The world will not implode. It's just a game.

lags72 wrote:The world will not implode. It's just a game.

For some it just might be a doomsday.

Optimistic.

It already looks pretty certain that he will come back to a level at least very close to what he was at before in terms of his game. His movement looks very good also.

Will his knees take the strain? None of us know. But if it was really in serious doubt I don't think he'd be playing.

I can't wait to see him against a top player. It will be quite an event.

Really laverfan .... ??

Although .....you could well be right .....

(Gee, I hope my life never gets quite so sad as to end up in that camp ......... )

If he has decided to play HC then I remain optimistic.
Its an all or nothing situation for Rafa .. and he, as probably most everybody else, is sick of the spotlight on his knee.

He has proven much to himself playing and improving on clay.. this is a must for Rafa if only to prove to his rivals that he is back.. knee or no knee.
I believe that he is getting stronger with every match .. IW is his launch pad for the rest of the season.

Well I have to admit I do see cause for optimism. Three finals and winning two including a comprehensive win against the number four looks pretty good to me. I sometimes wonder what some expect from Nadal. On radio 5 last night some "expert" was saying that an early loss at IW would be a disaster for him and a sign that the end is near. No one else including Federer and Djokovic has to be quite so perfect...

I thought it interesting that two such contrasting assessments could be made from reports of the same press conference. Do we just see what we want to see?

laverfan. Ha ha! It's quite nice having a distraction to stop us worrying about "doomsday" though...

hawkeye wrote:On radio 5 last night some "expert" was saying that an early loss at IW would be a disaster for him and a sign that the end is near.

Really? What nonsense. If any of the top 4 (and i mean the traditional top 4, not current top 4) lose early it won't change anything. It will be a short term disappointment, but won't really make any difference in the grand scheme of things.

Yeah, Nadal has least pressure on him of the top 4. IW is very much a see how it goes event for him. His knee must feel good or I doubt he would have played. As long as the knee holds up, he's on a free roll this week.

Yep. Lets just see how he gets on the next few matches then discuss HC on his knees...otherwise we're just going over and over the same stuff like the build up to a Premiership match on a Sunday afternoon on Sky.

HE, I think you pay too much attention to media reports, half the time players are fed leading questions to which we only see the answer. They're human too, somedays they may feel great and respond in kind, other days not. At the end of the day it's what happens on court that counts.

If Nadal's knees give him trouble, he can always RET from the match and preserve himself for the European Clay season. He has been practicing at IW. We should stop second-guessing the man and let him play at least one match. His post-match interview will tell us what is right now mere speculation.

lydian. I admit I am interested in how the media reports things. We do see a lot of things filtered through the media but thanks to the wonders of the internet it's sometimes possible to peak through the cracks. It's definately possible to spot a few contradictions. Digging a little in a fun topic of interest like tennis makes you only too aware of inconsistencies in coverage of... mmm.. well coverage of topics that are not games.

hawkeye wrote:Well I have to admit I do see cause for optimism. Three finals and winning two including a comprehensive win against the number four looks pretty good to me. I sometimes wonder what some expect from Nadal. On radio 5 last night some "expert" was saying that an early loss at IW would be a disaster for him and a sign that the end is near. No one else including Federer and Djokovic has to be quite so perfect...

I dunno, Federer seems to get people up in arms about his retirement being required upon losing a match these days!

I'd be optimistic, I think Nadal's in the perfect position in terms of the draw too. Reach the QF and bow out to the #2? No shame there, and he can focus on the clay season if he chooses to skip Miami. Any further at IW is an added (semi-anticipated) bonus and would cement the growing perception that Rafa is well and truly back in business. He's got a good opener against a fairly lacklustre - of late - Harrison, so that's an excellent test bed for the knee in a match situation. Should be good to see how the man gets on!

Isn't the question how many tournaments till the tendinitis gets beyond between match treatment and pain management?
Quite possible he's is likely not going to be hindered by it at IW or Miami even going deep at both.

Historically it been the Euro clay season where it finally flares over. Since he has delayed the beginning of the season till last month he may ride a stretch on tour right through to Wimbledon without incident.

But it seems inevitable at some point he will suffer a relapse requiring an extended time on the sidelines.
After all it is a chronic condition with out cure.

I have to agree with quietplease at some point the pain is going to be too great. He took 7 months off with no surgery maybe it would have been better if he had a surgery and tried to address the underlying situation. Although I am not a doctor so I don't know if maybe surgery wasn't even an option or would be effective. He has a chronic issue, that usually involves him hitting a phsyical wall during the second half of the season. Hopefully he can get enough of a respite to challenge well at all the slams.

quietplease wrote: Isn't the question how many tournaments till the tendinitis gets beyond between match treatment and pain management?
Quite possible he's is likely not going to be hindered by it at IW or Miami even going deep at both.

Historically it been the Euro clay season where it finally flares over. Since he has delayed the beginning of the season till last month he may ride a stretch on tour right through to Wimbledon without incident.

But it seems inevitable at some point he will suffer a relapse requiring an extended time on the sidelines.
After all it is a chronic condition with out cure.

The question is whether he has learned enough from such repeated events every year and learned to manage his schedule instead of being coerced into playing till history repeats itself.

Sorry but don't agree with any of QPs points.

1. Nadal's knee flares on HCs, either at AO or IW/Miami before the EU clay season...its happened many times now. Last year he withdrew from Miami with knee trouble. At AO before that he complained of severe pain in the joint. Back in 2009 when he had time off his knees flared after AO at Rotterdam where he was on one leg vs Murray in the final, then it flared at Miami, e.g. in that Delpo match he bizarrely lost from 3-0 up in the 3rd. He then 'rides' the flare/pain through clay/grass seasons.

2. It isn't inevitable he'll relapse IF he manages his schedule better. He'll not do Miami and I bet he plays much less HC masters moving forwards, he may even reduce his clay schedule in Europe. There's no way Nadal comes through this without changing anything. QPs comments assume he carries on as before, for which I'd then agree Nadal is headed for trouble again, but he won't.

He can play on natural surfaces until the cows come home, it's HCs that get him...and I suspect its AO that is his real problem. Slow, long ralley matches on HC across 2 weeks. He needs to drop that and start every year on clay, then he'd probably be ok for the rest of the year if also dropping 1-2 more HC masters.

Lydian:

You may be right but,I don't draw as neat a distinction between the knee problem and the surface or your're contention that he can play on clay till the cows come home without re aggravating the injury.

If the first two months of the season had all the clay tournaments and months following featured hards I take it,you believe he would surrvive in much better shape come the spring. While clay is easier on the body playing ATP tennis is hard on the body period and given the number of clay tournaments and compact schedule the recovery time is reduced impairing the ability to manage the condition.

One has to also take into consideration his style of play which is at least equally contributory to the problems regardless of the surface.

Also your scheduling solution has the effect of converting him into a part time player which may be inevitable but not easily to pull off successfully given the need for a certain level of match competition to remain sharpe. On the other hand by playing till the injury overwhelms him and forces him off tour for months amounts to the same thing so I supose your's is a more practical and logical approach at this point.

Has he Definately stated he will not play Miami?