ATP Race - Nadal vs. Nole (Momentum Change)

The ranking's have Djokovic in a clear lead at 1 with Nadal trailing at 5. This shows that over the past 12 months Djokovic was the best but clearly this is not a good description of the present. Nadal was zero pointed for 8 months of the period being measured and at the moment looks a little better than 5th best. A better indication maybe to look at the race points. With Nadal's win in IW he has jumped to 2nd place behind Djokovic. However the race points are counted from the beginning of the year and include a slam load of points that Nadal was zero pointed for. Again they show history and not the present.

As of today who would be likely to win a match up between Djokovic and Nadal? On Clay? On Grass? On Hard? Who would be the betting favorite as this takes into account a bigger picture than ranking or race? Is Nole still the best? I'm not sure.

I can liken the situation to the point in the IW final yesterday when Nadal broke back to 3 all in the second set. The scoreboard clearly had Del Potro in the lead but anyone watching could see that the scoreboard was hiding a huge momentum change. Nadal despite what the scoreboard said was perhaps in the lead.

I wonder if somewhere in Serbia/Miami a raquet got smashed yesterday?

(Nb I am responsible for the content of this article apart from the title and one small addition. Credit to JuliusHMarx for this and for his advice not to post it under my original title)

Not sure about breaking racquets - wont do his tender elbow any good either

Until they play F2F hawkeye I don't think Novak will be too worried.
Nadal's resurgence has been tremendous and almost given the whole tennis world a boost because everyone loves a come-back story like this where a former great is sidelined only to return to glory again...cue "Eye of the Tiger" music.

But all that said, Nadal has to prove his mettle against Djokovic and Murray. For all the greatness of yesterday Rafa is still rusty, and he's mentally not quite there in close out moments although the win will have helped enormously for next time. So if they were to meet right now I couldn't call it...on HC I would still give the nod to Novak and Andy, on clay to Rafa...on grass - it would be close. However, if Rafa continues to get better then we'll see. He could be near the top of the game by the end of the year for sure...i.e. wins the ATP race. A lot depends on those crucial H2Hs coming up.

I think, long as Rafas legs hold up, my money is on him being more likely than anyone to win RG-SW19.
Even if he doesnt all will be much clearer than...

Difficult to predict really. I would edge Novak if they met in Miami, but if they meet on clay then Rafa obviously. I must admit, I was hoping Rafa would be slower in reaching this level... Not because I don't want him to do well, but because RG would have been fun not knowing who would win. Now I feel it's the usual formality.

Credit to Rafa though, I thought he'd be fit because he was obviously training for a long time before playing again... But for his match play to be this good this quickly is just astonishing.

On hardcourt Novak is the better hardcourt player, Nadal can beat him on a hardcourt if NOvak isn't at his best and Nadal is playing very well. On clay I give an edge to Nadal but not as big as people think. I think Novak was off color last year in the clay court season and that his clay form is more likely something like 2011. On grass I favor Djokovic, I think people don't make exceptions or the improved serving we have seen from Novak this year although Nadal has become a good server himseld. And also Novak has become much more comfortable handling the low ball then he has been in the past due to his improved slice backhand and ability to move into net. So I would only make Nadal a slight favorite on clay and Novak on the other two surfaces and on indoors.

I think either player however can beat the other on their surface of choice and even over 5 sets. Novak can beat Nadal at RG, Nadal can beat Novak at the AO. To me that is why their rivlary is intriguing because it has never been as one sided as fed v. Nadal.

If Nadal wants to finish as year end no 1 he'll need a huge cushion after Wimbledon as after that the tournaments get fast, its knee damaging hard all the way from there. He needs to be about 2000 points ahead after Wimbledon I'd say to be favourite for year end no 1.

I think you still have to say Djoko is still the rightful No 1, even on current form and even taking into account Rafa's successful comeback.
IW is the only tourney they've both played and yes, Rafa won, but I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from one tournament and Djoko's record this year is impeccable.
In terms of the overall race, it will actually be difficult for Rafa to overtake Murray, let alone Djoko at any point this year. Given the consistency of those 2 players, and the AO head start, that may be too much of an ask.

As for H2H, Nadal has only beaten Djoko twice on a hard court in the last 4 and a half years and one of those was when Djokovic was playing with three contact lens floating around his eyeballs. Since the beginning of 2009 the HC H2H is 7-2 and I don't see Rafa improving on that unless Djoko has a really off day. It's more likely that Djoko will beat Rafa on clay and if he can beat him in one of the Masters that would give him the edge to win at RG, should they meet there.

Grass? It's pretty even - so few matches are played on grass they're always difficult to predict.

I agree with that Julius but with the caveat that I think Nadal can beat djoko at his favorite surface and vice versa is also true, Djoko can beat Nadal on his best surface. I think Nadal does have a chance in the second half of the year if he is healthy to make up some huge ground, but he is also behind quite a bit and has never been a monster on the hardcourts of summer or the indoors if past performance is any indicator.

One thing we don't know also about Nadal is how he is going to cope with the week to week grind. OK, he's played 4 tournaments and quite a lot of matches, however, when that's become 6 months and 12 tournaments, will he still be at the same level.

lydian wrote:Not sure about breaking racquets - wont do his tender elbow any good either

Until they play F2F hawkeye I don't think Novak will be too worried.
Nadal's resurgence has been tremendous and almost given the whole tennis world a boost because everyone loves a come-back story like this where a former great is sidelined only to return to glory again...cue "Eye of the Tiger" music.

But all that said, Nadal has to prove his mettle against Djokovic and Murray. For all the greatness of yesterday Rafa is still rusty, and he's mentally not quite there in close out moments although the win will have helped enormously for next time. So if they were to meet right now I couldn't call it...on HC I would still give the nod to Novak and Andy, on clay to Rafa...on grass - it would be close. However, if Rafa continues to get better then we'll see. He could be near the top of the game by the end of the year for sure...i.e. wins the ATP race. A lot depends on those crucial H2Hs coming up.

I love Novak's raquet smashes... I know I shouldn't because it goes against everything I usually believe in but I can't help myself...

I don't think Nadal has anything to "prove" against Djokovic let alone Murray. I was a little disappointed that it was Del Potro in the final and not Djokovic because I was curious to see how Djokovic would handle just a little pressure. Every time the two have played before there has been so much pressure on Nadal I've been almost too scared to watch. (Apart from RG last year when I was literally too scared to watch. Ha ha!)

Danny_1982. It's amazing considering how many times Nadal has won RG that it has never been a "formality". Ironic that the only time he was a shoe in was in 2009...

JuliusHMarx wrote:
In terms of the overall race, it will actually be difficult for Rafa to overtake Murray, let alone Djoko at any point this year. Given the consistency of those 2 players, and the AO head start, that may be too much of an ask.

As for H2H, Nadal has only beaten Djoko twice on a hard court in the last 4 and a half years and one of those was when Djokovic was playing with three contact lens floating around his eyeballs. Since the beginning of 2009 the HC H2H is 7-2 and I don't see Rafa improving on that unless Djoko has a really off day. It's more likely that Djoko will beat Rafa on clay and if he can beat him in one of the Masters that would give him the edge to win at RG, should they meet there.

What are you talking about? Nadal has already overtaken Murray in the race. He is at 2 behind Djokovic despite missing all the points available at the AO. And how do you reason that it's "more likely" that Djokovic will beat Nadal on clay? He's got an appalling record against him on this surface. I think you are doing that wishful thinking thing.

Personally, having watched IW I've relapsed into a now growing concern about Nole's fitness, and after quite a long time too. Is he back to getting exhausted towards the finish of BO3S matches? What happened I wonder? Muscling out FH2FH with Delpo, what was that all about, where's the best choice of shot player I've gotten used to. Sure, it was just the one tournament, just the one match, but still... Watching the momentum shifting so soon to Nadal, I think he might even sweep up the rest of the year.

I remember thinking Nole's faith for the year was being decided at 40 all 4-3 in the second set between Berdych and Rafa. The Czech had just gone a break up and had he held and gone on to win the match, I would already be celebrating Novak's first FO title...As it were, the mental dwarf collapsed yet again and Nadal broke back and eventually won, well, won it all as it turned out. Now? I feel it's all going to be about him this year finishing it at 13 slams. Nole will have the toughest year end so far in his career, what with all the points to defend. That is when he may lose the #1.

No chance of Nadal sweeping up the rest of the year. Andy Murray will sort out Nadal at Wimbledon unless of course Lukas Rosol gets him first.

Walktall, there is cause for concern he does seem to have a sore elbow that Lydian was referring to but he is 22-1 and I actually said before the tourney that he didn't look into it. I think subconsciously after the AO his mind has been on the clay court season. I think the last thing he wanted was to get involved in the hype of the streak like in 2011 and fizzle out at the french. The fact is I am not worried about him as long as he is healthy. The guy has 2 losses since the USO last year and his serve looks better than ever. I don't think we will see the best of him in miami either, it is RG or bust for Novak. Not winning RG could have some psychological impact on him though. Lets see what happens but I think he is looking good for year end #1 if healthy he is the most likely candidate.

ryan86 wrote:One thing we don't know also about Nadal is how he is going to cope with the week to week grind. OK, he's played 4 tournaments and quite a lot of matches, however, when that's become 6 months and 12 tournaments, will he still be at the same level.

Good point. Lost on some, with the OTT reaction to Rafa beating an out of sorts Fed and Del Potro, who's never beaten 3 out of the top 4, to win an event (not that many have)

For me, it was a great opportunity for Rafa. Nicely tuned in after his clay court victories, Murray undercooked (his own fault of course - but justified) and Federer needing a rest (why did he play after Australia?)

We still need to see how Rafa fares against Nole / Murray at their summer American hardcourt best. Can the knee stand an intense 6 month period, that will be needed

And I also don't think he starts off with a better chance than those two at Wimbledon

But good to see him back

More importantly and perhaps it tells us all we need to know, Rafa won't be getting carried away

FO will hold the key, I really want to see Nadal and Djoko square off in a quarter final, which most likely won't happen even if Rafa is seeded 5 and Djoko seeded 1.

Would like to test this Rafa with the following matches

Round 1] Gulbis
Round 2] Isner
Round 3]Almagro / Raonic
Round 4] Del Potro
Quarter Finals] Djokovic
Semifinals ] Murray [ provided Murray is No.3 seed]
Finals ] Fed


However he might still win thou.

Neil Harman also imagined the reaction to the huge momentum change that Nadal's win in Indian Wells represents. This from The Times (PPV but as always well worth it.

Imagine for a moment you are one of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray or Roger Federer tuning in to the final of the BNP Paribas Open on Sunday. You watch Rafael Nadal, apparently on the ropes against the hardest forehand in tennis, recover to break the resilience of his opponent, Juan Martín del Potro, and complete the day with his incisors embedded in another trophy.

Do you feel pleasure that Nadal is back — Federer kept insisting that he was, though he may have been joking — or might you silently curse? Or do you count your blessings and your grand-slam titles (Federer 17, Djokovic six and Murray one), each of which increased by one when the Spaniard was absent for seven months?

Ha ha! Or do you in frustration smash a raquet? Or in Murray's case perhaps a little more vocal cursing. I suspect that Federer has relinquished the remote to his twin daughters. However if he did watch Rafa fall to the hardcourt floor in victory his reaction would probably be a slight eye roll.

Julius I'm going to change the title of this article slightly. I hope it is still suitably non controversial but I feel your suggestion isn't very descriptive. Let me know if you think it will upset anyone and I'll change it back.

Rafa match record for the year: 17-1
Novak match record for the year: 17-1

Hardly a huge momentum shift, even if we equate the likes of Vina Del Mar with the Australian Open.

Interesting stats HMM...surely Chile > AO ?
BTW, be interesting to see how Djoko's elbow gets on this week after IW.
Rumour has it he changed racquet at the start of the year...hope that's not the cause.

Rafa's return has added something to the top of the game. That's for sure. It looked like the next few years were going to be Novak v Murray for a lot of the prizes. Now with Rafa's stunning comeback, plus Delpo beating 2 of the top guys (and nearly a 3rd) it suddenly looks a little less predictable.

The one certainty is Rafa is already at a level to win big titles. He's proved that.

I don't think his great return has changed momentum for Novak or Andy though. Novak has only lost 1 match this season, Murray only 2 and they were the the 2 finalists at the last slam, for the second consecutive slam.

Rafa's return does not necessarily mean a downshift in momentum for the other 2. I fully expect a clay tear from Rafa as always, and a FO win... But after that? All to play for. Wimbledon and New York will be very tough to call between all of them.

Yep Danny, we shouldn't get carried away with Rafa. I still don't think he's more than 80% on HC yet, and can still get better on clay. He's gonna be creating a monster if he's not careful!

Lydian

I must admit I was slightly disappointed not to see Rafa v Novak or Andy at IW. That would have been interesting to say the least.

I'm also disappointed Rafa won't be in Miami, although deep down I think it was a very sensible decision.

Yes it would have been v. interesting indeed.
Agree it's the right thing...the top 3-4 will lock horns again soon enough.

I was a little disappointed not to see Nadal v Djokovic too.

HM Murdoch wrote:Rafa match record for the year: 17-1
Novak match record for the year: 17-1

Hardly a huge momentum shift, even if we equate the likes of Vina Del Mar with the Australian Open.

HM Murdoch. Momentum shifts don't immediately show up in scores. Both may be on 17-1 but for Nole that last match was the "1" whereas Rafa's "1" is history. Similar (as I say in the article) to when the score in the IW final was 6-4, 3-3 to Del Potro when Nadal broke back. On paper Del Potro was in the lead but anyone watching would have known who was in the drivers seat.

I've just re-watched the final set. Nadal was playing some scary tennis... and this was on hard court. Maybe Nole did really smash his raquet...

Neil Harman wrote:Do you feel pleasure that Nadal is back — Federer kept insisting that he was, though he may have been joking — or might you silently curse? Or do you count your blessings and your grand-slam titles (Federer 17, Djokovic six and Murray one), each of which increased by one when the Spaniard was absent for seven months?

Neil seems to have forgotten that Rafa wasn't absent during Wimbledon. Rewatch that match and it's very clear that was a legitimate win for Rosol.

I think Federer knows that. It was one of the funniest matches he's ever watched...

prostaff85 wrote:

Neil Harman wrote:Do you feel pleasure that Nadal is back — Federer kept insisting that he was, though he may have been joking — or might you silently curse? Or do you count your blessings and your grand-slam titles (Federer 17, Djokovic six and Murray one), each of which increased by one when the Spaniard was absent for seven months?

Neil seems to have forgotten that Rafa wasn't absent during Wimbledon. Rewatch that match and it's very clear that was a legitimate win for Rosol.

I thought that a little odd too - a bit like saying Nadal won Indian Well when Djokovic was absent.

Aside from that, well the race at this time of year isn't always too revealing. Djokovic can pull away again in Miami then you'd expect Nadal to gather more points over the clay season - unless some challengers appear out of nowhere on clay, it's a question of how they carve up those points for sure.

I'd be very surprised if Rafa toppled Novak this year, unless Novak has a major dip on hard courts. Rafa did very well to win in Indian Wells but that hard court is perfectly suited for his game and Del Potro actually did most of the hard work for him. We really need to see him against Djokovic and Murray to see his prospects for the rest of the year on hard court.

Clay will be intriguing. I felt Rafa re-established an edge on Novak last year due to a dip in form by Novak compared to 2011. I get the impression, if he is fit, Novak may put up more of a fight this year. I don't see anyone else troubling those two.

hawkeye wrote:I was a little disappointed not to see Nadal v Djokovic too.

HM Murdoch wrote:Rafa match record for the year: 17-1
Novak match record for the year: 17-1

Hardly a huge momentum shift, even if we equate the likes of Vina Del Mar with the Australian Open.

HM Murdoch. Momentum shifts don't immediately show up in scores. Both may be on 17-1 but for Nole that last match was the "1" whereas Rafa's "1" is history. Similar (as I say in the article) to when the score in the IW final was 6-4, 3-3 to Del Potro when Nadal broke back. On paper Del Potro was in the lead but anyone watching would have known who was in the drivers seat.

I've just re-watched the final set. Nadal was playing some scary tennis... and this was on hard court. Maybe Nole did really smash his raquet...

That's poor logic though, Hawkeye.

After the QF of IW, Novak was 17-0 and Rafa was 15-1,

By your reasoning, that means Novak had the momentum.

But because Novak then loses 1 match he no longer has momentum? If we apply that reasoning, no player bar Rafa has any momentum! They all lost their last match at IW!

Apart from Leo Mayer!

Rafa, for me, is already favourite for the RG and will surely do better at Wimbledon than last year. After that, there are no points to defend for months and months and months.
If Rafa had not returned , or not returned as strongly as he has, I feel Djoko could well have cleaned up this year. Any thoughts of anyone other than Rafa doing the GS will always be tempered by the fact that they have to get past Rafa at the French.
A less-than-fit, not-in-much-form Rafa might have afforded Nole his big chance at RG this year. Looks like it aint gonna happen now. Or do people think there is still a chance for anyone else ?

ryan86 wrote:Apart from Leo Mayer!

Leo Mayer - is he still around? "You make me feel like dancing..."

HM Murdoch wrote:

hawkeye wrote:I was a little disappointed not to see Nadal v Djokovic too.

HM Murdoch wrote:Rafa match record for the year: 17-1
Novak match record for the year: 17-1

Hardly a huge momentum shift, even if we equate the likes of Vina Del Mar with the Australian Open.

HM Murdoch. Momentum shifts don't immediately show up in scores. Both may be on 17-1 but for Nole that last match was the "1" whereas Rafa's "1" is history. Similar (as I say in the article) to when the score in the IW final was 6-4, 3-3 to Del Potro when Nadal broke back. On paper Del Potro was in the lead but anyone watching would have known who was in the drivers seat.

I've just re-watched the final set. Nadal was playing some scary tennis... and this was on hard court. Maybe Nole did really smash his raquet...

That's poor logic though, Hawkeye.

After the QF of IW, Novak was 17-0 and Rafa was 15-1,

By your reasoning, that means Novak had the momentum.

But because Novak then loses 1 match he no longer has momentum? If we apply that reasoning, no player bar Rafa has any momentum! They all lost their last match at IW!

After the quarter final I would say that Novak possibly did still have the momentum although Rafa was gaining in confidence. If they had met in the semi's Djokovic would have faced a more vulnerable Nadal. If they had met in the quarters even more so. You rightly point out that it's only one match but momentum is a funny thing it can change quickly. But if you think it doesn't exist re watch the IW final. Once Rafa breaks back in the second set and steals the momentum he becomes a completely different player. How confident will he be now when he next faces Novak with the IW trophy added to his collection and the memory of his last three finals wins over Novak perhaps a little fresher in his memory.

Also I think it's safe to say that Rafa AND Novak don't always require momentum to beat other players but after some of their emotionally draining matches over the last couple of years when they face each other it may prove significant.

hawkeye wrote:What are you talking about? Nadal has already overtaken Murray in the race

By playing two more tournies One of which (his comeback) Geoff Boycott's Mum could have won!!

hawkeye wrote:I think you are doing that wishful thinking thing

Pot. Kettle. And Black, spring to mind

banbrotam. Did you see this?

https://www.606v2.com/t42060-top-4-wins-and-losses-against-top-10-in-2013

I don't think Geoff Boycott's Mum could go 4/0 against top 10 players this year. Murray has a losing record against top ten players. So I would say that Nadal has earned his number two race position the hard way. In comparison Murray has had a far easier time by avoiding the more difficult opponents.

Toni Nadal has been quoted as saying he was happy Del Potro beat Djokovic as they were hoping they would not have to play Novak, it was too soon

CAS wrote:Toni Nadal has been quoted as saying he was happy Del Potro beat Djokovic as they were hoping they would not have to play Novak, it was too soon

Oh dear, they've given up some momentum by saying that!

Rafa needs to tell his uncle to STFU...who wasn't even with him last week so is clearly shooting from the hip back home in Majorca. I really suspect Rafa won't be happy with these utterances.

CAS wrote:Toni Nadal has been quoted as saying he was happy Del Potro beat Djokovic as they were hoping they would not have to play Novak, it was too soon

That's a surprising comment.

As it turned out, I actually think last week would have been an ideal time to play Novak. His form was a bit erratic and, given Rafa's stronger-than-expected performances, I think Rafa had a very good shot at beating him.

It was a no pressure situation for Rafa. If he wins, brilliant, if he loses, it's to be expected.

Now their first match up will probably be Monte Carlo and the stakes are higher for Rafa there. It's his strongest fortress, even more so than RG. If Rafa loses to Novak there, it will be more meaningful than losing at IW would have been.

CAS wrote:Toni Nadal has been quoted as saying he was happy Del Potro beat Djokovic as they were hoping they would not have to play Novak, it was too soon

Of course it was too soon. It was before the momentum change... And of course any player would opt for what would on paper be considered the easier opponent.

Djokovic's not playing in Monte Carlo (I believe) or Barcelona. If they should meet on clay after that Nadal won't just have the momentum he will have had a lttle bit of practice on the red stuff. I don't think Djokovic has played on clay since Nadal beat him three times last year...

hawkeye wrote:Djokovic's not playing in Monte Carlo (I believe) or Barcelona.

He is playing Monte Carlo.

People under-estimate Novak big time here, I am not even a Novak fan but so far Novak's stats for the year is scary 22-1? isit?

I won't be surprised if Novak clean sweaps Rafa on all tournaments this year similar like 2011 including clay, Novak knows exactly what game he need to bring when facing Nadal and thats the key reason he would win their encounters.

Novak is a different beast when facing Rafa, and unlike most occasions Novak is in Rafa's head and not the vice-versa, Novak won't panic against Rafa in key moments but Rafa could panic against Nole in key moments leading to a close match unfinished on the proper channel.

If Nole gets to meet Rafa in FO quarters or semi's he will win the contest, if it happens to be in the finals then Rafa might have the edge since Nole might be too pressurized thinking whats on stake.

While Rafa might have a good year I don't see him go past Murray let alone Nole.

I think Novak despite the physical toll it takes would rather play Rafa then Roger, its a bit of a rock paper scissors with those 3

I would not count Djokovic out. He is a tenacious one. His loses spur him on.

laverfan. Who's counting Djokovic out? I don't see anyone doing that. But you may have noticed that Rafa has a few tenuous qualities himself. If Djokovic faces the Rafa that was playing in the third set against Del Potro he will have his work set out.

Invisiblecoolers. I will quote laverfans words at you with a slight change

I would not count NADAL out. He is a tenacious one. His loses spur him on.

Also although you appear to have a good memory for pre-history (2011) you appear to have forgotten the more recent history of 2012. I would also say that some of Nadal's losses to Djokovic in 2011 had a little to do with a momentum change that took place in 2011. As your memory of that year is clear I can presume you remember Novak's "antics" after his Madrid win over Rafa? He could recognise how important momentum is. That win was perhaps the key to his Wimbledon, US and AO titles that followed. Hence his racquet smash after Nadal won IW's (That did I presume really happen...)

Murray could perhaps beat Nadal but like other players he would need a "Rosol" like performance.

hawkeye wrote:laverfan. Who's counting Djokovic out? I don't see anyone doing that. But you may have noticed that Rafa has a few tenuous qualities himself. If Djokovic faces the Rafa that was playing in the third set against Del Potro he will have his work set out.

Invisiblecoolers. I will quote laverfans words at you with a slight change

I would not count NADAL out. He is a tenacious one. His loses spur him on.

Also although you appear to have a good memory for pre-history (2011) you appear to have forgotten the more recent history of 2012. I would also say that some of Nadal's losses to Djokovic in 2011 had a little to do with a momentum change that took place in 2011. As your memory of that year is clear I can presume you remember Novak's "antics" after his Madrid win over Rafa? He could recognise how important momentum is. That win was perhaps the key to his Wimbledon, US and AO titles that followed. Hence his racquet smash after Nadal won IW's (That did I presume really happen...)

Murray could perhaps beat Nadal but like other players he would need a "Rosol" like performance.

Cracking comments from our adorable HE. I like the way we'll forget the first two sets and just concentrate on Rafa's 3rd against DP. Does this mean us Murray fans can 'dine out' on his first set against the Argentinean wonder?

I'm feeling a bit concerned about HE, who appears to have;-

1) Airbrushed out of history Rafa's troubles since last June
2) Forgotten that the last time he faced Murray, he lost - including a third set bagel beating and this was before the Scot's improvements
3) Forgotten that Nole took the No.1 spot away from him and easily kept it

I'm pleased Rafa is back, unlike HE i like all Andy's three rivals - but when he reads optimistic guff like HE comes out with, the poor guy must want to get back under the duvet.

Fortuantely of course, he won't be reading this [b]

banbrotam wrote:

hawkeye wrote:laverfan. Who's counting Djokovic out? I don't see anyone doing that. But you may have noticed that Rafa has a few tenuous qualities himself. If Djokovic faces the Rafa that was playing in the third set against Del Potro he will have his work set out.

Invisiblecoolers. I will quote laverfans words at you with a slight change

I would not count NADAL out. He is a tenacious one. His loses spur him on.

Also although you appear to have a good memory for pre-history (2011) you appear to have forgotten the more recent history of 2012. I would also say that some of Nadal's losses to Djokovic in 2011 had a little to do with a momentum change that took place in 2011. As your memory of that year is clear I can presume you remember Novak's "antics" after his Madrid win over Rafa? He could recognise how important momentum is. That win was perhaps the key to his Wimbledon, US and AO titles that followed. Hence his racquet smash after Nadal won IW's (That did I presume really happen...)

Murray could perhaps beat Nadal but like other players he would need a "Rosol" like performance.

Cracking comments from our adorable HE. I like the way we'll forget the first two sets and just concentrate on Rafa's 3rd against DP. Does this mean us Murray fans can 'dine out' on his first set against the Argentinean wonder?

I'm feeling a bit concerned about HE, who appears to have;-

1) Airbrushed out of history Rafa's troubles since last June
2) Forgotten that the last time he faced Murray, he lost - including a third set bagel beating and this was before the Scot's improvements
3) Forgotten that Nole took the No.1 spot away from him and easily kept it

I'm pleased Rafa is back, unlike HE i like all Andy's three rivals - but when he reads optimistic guff like HE comes out with, the poor guy must want to get back under the duvet.

Fortuantely of course, he won't be reading this [b]

He or Andy won't but any new potential Murray posters will, and if they check her history I think they would give v2 the big swerve!

Sadly it's has gone past the joke stage, and has become incessant.

hawkeye wrote:laverfan. Who's counting Djokovic out? I don't see anyone doing that.

Well, you're certainly not, HE.

It much safer and easier to stop just short and say that he has lost momentum, that his being the best is "clearly not a description of the present" and that he's smashing his raquet in frustration.

Your many threads about Andy are often outlandish but are, at least, always direct and often amusing.

Now it seems like you're flirting with the idea of having a pop at Djokovic but can't quite go through with it.

Please - dive in. At least make it interesting for us. This dancing round the edges is becoming painful.

sportslover. Me thinks your just attempting to cause mischief?

invisiblecoolers thew out the controversial line that he didn't think a multi slam winning all time great with a 13-5 H2H over a certain player would even if he had a good year not be able to beat that certain player again. I responded that although it wasn't impossible that the "certain player" could beat the multi slam winning all time great to do so he would have to put in an exceptional performance. I think what I said is a lot less controversial than what invisiblecoolers said. (Not that I have any objection to invisiblecoolers saying it...)

On 606v2 tennis fans who appreciate Nadal who is a multi slam winning all time great have not been confined to a "Dark room". So they may still occasionally point out that he is quite good at tennis.

HM Murdoch

I have no intention of "having a pop at Djokovic". He is a great player and if anyone tries to say otherwise I will jump to his defense. But records agree with my assessment that Nadal is the better player and IMO Nadal has also stolen the momentum.

hawkeye wrote:HM Murdoch

I have no intention of "having a pop at Djokovic". He is a great player and if anyone tries to say otherwise I will jump to his defense. But records agree with my assessment that Nadal is the better player and IMO Nadal has also stolen the momentum.

Records show that Nadal has had a better career. But do not show that he is a better player right now. Novak is number 1 and until such time as he is not number 1 he deserves to be treated as the number 1.

If Rafa wins a couple of matches consecutively against Novak then I accept that he will have stolen this 'momentum' that you seem to be hanging your hat on right now. Until then, Novak won't have list any momentum to Rafa. In my opinion anyway.