Points Spy - Miami

The table for Miami is now available HERE!

Or, if you don't want to visit the website, you can take a look at this much uglier table.

Live Rank	Orig Rank	Player	Orig Points	Drop Points	Gain Points	Live Points	Live Movement	Current Status	Next Opponent
1	1	N. Djokovic [SRB]	13280	1000	90	12370		Eliminated - R16
2	3	A. Murray [GBR]	8350	600	1000	8750	Up 1	Champion
3	2	R. Federer [SUI]	8715	45	0	8670	Down 1	Did Not Play
4	5	D. Ferrer [ESP]	6630	180	600	7050	Up 1	Eliminated - Final
5	4	R. Nadal [ESP]	6745	360	0	6385	Down 1	Did Not Play
6	6	T. Berdych [CZE]	5010	45	180	5145		Eliminated - QF
7	7	J. Del Potro [ARG]	4830	90	10	4750		Eliminated - R64
8	8	J. Tsonga [FRA]	3750	180	90	3660		Eliminated - R16
9	10	R. Gasquet [FRA]	2960	90	360	3230	Up 1	Eliminated - SF
10	9	J. Tipsarevic [SRB]	3090	180	90	3000	Down 1	Eliminated - R16
11	11	M. Cilic [CRO]	2570	45	180	2705		Eliminated - QF
12	12	N. Almagro [ESP]	2435	90	90	2435		Eliminated - R16
13	13	G. Simon [FRA]	2300	90	180	2390		Eliminated - QF
14	18	T. Haas [GER]	1925	25	360	2260	Up 4	Eliminated - SF
15	15	K. Nishikori [JPN]	2135	90	90	2135		Eliminated - R16
16	16	M. Raonic [CAN]	2095	45	45	2095		Eliminated - R32
17	17	S. Wawrinka [SUI]	1960	0	0	1960		Did Not Play
18	19	A. Seppi [ITA]	1785	10	90	1865	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
19	14	J. Monaco [ARG]	2185	360	10	1835	Down 5	Eliminated - R64
20	20	S. Querrey [USA]	1760	25	90	1825		Eliminated - R16
		Selected Others:
35	42	J. Melzer [AUT]	940	45	180	1075	Up 7	Eliminated - QF
42	33	M. Fish [USA]	1125	180	0	945	Down 9	Did Not Play
52	61	A. Ramos [ESP]	765	45	90	810	Up 9	Eliminated - R16

Good breakdown as usual Cogen.

I like the site, but I thought Nadal was dropping SF points from last year - you have him down as losing 180 points.

I did use the IW one a few times, so thanks.

Can I just add the Djokovic analysis which you missed out. There are a few scenarios for Murray to catch him.

1. Wind Djokovic up so that he does something so outrageous that he gets an unprecedented fine of about 6,000 points or so.

2. Hack into the ATP site and change the ranking points.

3. Get the ATP to award 7,000 points for a Miami champion.

It is a tall order.

Pretty funny, HB, Novak does look comfortable at the number 1 for this year if he stays healthy and maintains good form which at this rate after years of being at the very top is most likely what we will see. I especially like the one about hacking into the ATP site.

Although I will say this I think Murray will get th #1 at some point in his career and may hit a purple patch where he gets the upper hand on Djoko and/or Nadal.

Yep Nadal drops 360 not 180 pts for 2012 SF.
Nice table.

Nice one, Cogen. I can't believe Monaco made the SF last year, I'd totally forgotten. Gasquet closing in on Tipsy too.

That is sooooo strange. I had a feeling Nadal made the SF last year, so before I published the table I went back to his profile and double checked. And I still saw 180 points even after my double check.

Either I'm going crazy (quite likely) or ATP amended a mistake on his profile earlier today! Quite right, it does say 360 points now!

Fixed it anyways

Socal. Yes, Djoko is miles ahead at the moment and has defended the only slam win he had in 2012. But Rafa's form has been so startling since his come back that thoughts of the Spaniard getting back to number one by the late part of the year cannot be dismissed.
Rafa, though, has stacks of points to defend over the next few weeks and this could tire him sufficiently to prevent his gettjng good results post-Wimbledon when he has precisely zero points to defend.
He has so rarely been able to turn it on at the fag-end of a season that it's asking a lot for him to do it this year. At least he's spared himself a six-hour marathon with Djoko like last year at AO. One wondered just how much that took out of them.

sirfredperry wrote:Socal. Yes, Djoko is miles ahead at the moment and has defended the only slam win he had in 2012. But Rafa's form has been so startling since his come back that thoughts of the Spaniard getting back to number one by the late part of the year cannot be dismissed.
Rafa, though, has stacks of points to defend over the next few weeks and this could tire him sufficiently to prevent his gettjng good results post-Wimbledon when he has precisely zero points to defend.
He has so rarely been able to turn it on at the fag-end of a season that it's asking a lot for him to do it this year. At least he's spared himself a six-hour marathon with Djoko like last year at AO. One wondered just how much that took out of them.

Nadal is taking a big risk if he chases heavy HC points at the fag end of the season as well as breaking the pattern of recent years since his 2009 knee trouble. Since 2010 he's concentrated his post-Wimbledon efforts on the USO and not made a great showing otherwise by his standards (the 2010 WTF final being the one major exception). He might chase No. 1 if it was near (unlikely given Djoko and Murray's progress), but surely he's got to concentrate on making sure he's still going to be in his best shape for the 2014 clay season? Also, and again historically, he has tended not to do so well at the Australian Open if he's had a strenuous end to the previous year, although equally in each year where he's made the final of the Australian he's had knee meltdown subsequently. Since we know that his knee is a chronic situation that requires management and rest, and cannot be finally 'cured', I'd expect his days of chasing No. 1 on HC to be over.

I don't think his days of chasing No.1 were ever 'on', its not something he's ever been motivated by and has said as much.

We always see his 2nd half of the year is much worse than the 1st half where he plays something like 70% of his matches. This will have to change - he'll not likely play Miami again, and suspect he'll also drop Barcelona (which will pain him). From there he'll probably also try to drop Cincy (from 2014) and some HCs in Asia where possible.

Of course if ATP could sort out the schedule so that HC Masters weren't always back to back then things could be better...but expecting commonsense scheduling out of the ATP is expecting far too much.

Murray - slayer of the next generation?

Tomic/Dimitrov/Janowicz/Klizan/Raonic as a possible run to the final.

Now that we're at the quarter-final stages, here's a run down of what the remaining 8 players have to gain.

Name	Started At	Currently	Reach SF	Reach Final	Win Title
Murray	3	3	3	3	2
Ferrer	5	4	4	4	4
Berdych	6	6	6	6	6
Gasquet	10	9	9	9	8
Cilic	11	11	11	9*	9
Simon	13	13	12	11*	9*
Haas	18	16	14	12	11*
Melzer	42	35	26	24	18

* Maximum ranking. Could be lower if another active player improves his result.
{Green cell} means the win leads to an improved ranking.

Would be so cool if Haas could break top 10.

I hope not lydian for the sake of Wee Kera discussions

Seriously would be an amazing achievement if he could.

Regarding the table above, anyone know if there is a way of centering all text in a table, or in a row of a table, using phpBB code?

I tried wrapping the whole table in [center] tags, but no joy there. So I tried adding "align=center" in the [table] tag and the [tr] tags, but that didn't work either.

In the end I put [center] tags inside every single individual cell, by using a "find and replace" on the [td] tags, but it was a pain in the backside! Would be nice if there was an easy way.

Yeah LK...its has its downsides.

Comparing Haas to Agassi is interesting. Its amazing that Agassi was last in top 10 on 19 April 2006 - just 2 weeks shy of his 36th birthday. He broke top 10 for first time in 1998. That's 18 yrs between 1st and last top 10 places.

If Haas could do it he'd be top 10 for first time since 2007, and his first time into top 10 was September 99. However, Agassi's time around the top was so much longer, 747 weeks in top 10. Haas has had 83 weeks in top 10.

Haas first broke top 5 at 23y 9m. Agassi did it by 18y 2m, so kind of unfair to compare the 2 guys we know Agassi was a different level.

Quite some difference but still, hats off to Tommy for coming back like he's done.

For some other ranking records look here: http://www.tennis28.com/rankings/cons_weeks_top5etal.html
http://www.tennis28.com/rankings/cons_weeks_top5etal_active.html

lydian wrote:2006

...

lydian wrote:1998

...

lydian wrote:18 yrs

Something isn't adding up here, buddy...

What's Ferrer's draw like for the next couple of rounds? After dropping last years points he was only a hundred or so ahead of Rafa, so a big haul here could have implications through as far as Wimbledon. Rafa will be doing well to gain points between now and then given what he's defending (all titles other than an early defeat in Madrid), while Ferrer played to his usual level of getting to a few QF and SFs on clay.

Looks increasingly possible that Nadal could still be ranked and more importantly seeded #5 for RG and perhaps Wimbledon (noting I haven't attempted to look at the seeding formula and grass court points bonus, but with Rafa's early loss to Rosol last year I can't see than he has a huge advantage over Ferrer in that regard).

More excited for the battle of 6th/7th/8th than I am for the top 4 positions. Berdych and Delpo are playing really well recently, hopefully they push Ferrer out of his comfortable seat soon enough.

JM

Have a look at Cogen's site - it will show you that there is little likelihood of Ferrer dropping lower than 5 in the rankings until the autumn because he's got 1000 from Paris and a 500 and 250 win in the books after the USO (and AO semi final points that will still be there into 2014). Only way someone like Berdy or Del Potro get ahead will be by winning MS1000 or GS events, and as has been discussed recently Fedalurrovic have had a near monopoly on those for quite some time.

Berdych could have a chance here given that of the big 4 only Murray is left in the tournament, and we've discussed before how Berdych seems to cause Andy more trouble than do the other big hitters, so there is a bit of a window of opportunity for him to close up on Ferrer and Nadal, but he then has to back the good result up, and as we've seen with Del Potro, it isn't necessarily that easy to string together a series of good tournaments.

dummy_half wrote:What's Ferrer's draw like for the next couple of rounds? After dropping last years points he was only a hundred or so ahead of Rafa, so a big haul here could have implications through as far as Wimbledon. Rafa will be doing well to gain points between now and then given what he's defending (all titles other than an early defeat in Madrid), while Ferrer played to his usual level of getting to a few QF and SFs on clay.

Looks increasingly possible that Nadal could still be ranked and more importantly seeded #5 for RG and perhaps Wimbledon (noting I haven't attempted to look at the seeding formula and grass court points bonus, but with Rafa's early loss to Rosol last year I can't see than he has a huge advantage over Ferrer in that regard).

Re: the first part of your post... Ferrer's draw for the rest of the tournament looks like this:
QF: Melzer
SF: Simon or Haas
Final: Murray, Berdych, Gasquet, or Cilic.


Re: Wimbledon seeding... A quick Google told me that Wimbledon's formula is to take the current points total, and add 100% of all grass court points in the last 12 months, plus 75% of the single best grass court result in the 12 months before that. So...

Nadal's bonus:
Wimbledon 2012 - 45pts
Halle 2012 - 45pts
Wimbledon 2011 - 1200pts * 0.75 = 900pts.
Total = 990pts.

Ferrer's bonus:
Wimbledon 2012 - 360pts
Olympics 2012 - 70pts
Wimbledon 2011 - 180pts * 0.75 = 135pts.
Total = 565pts

990 - 565 = 425 point advantage for Nadal. So if Nadal is within 425pts of Ferrer by the start of Wimbledon then he'll be seeded 4th.

EDIT: Just realised by the time Wimbledon actually starts, that Halle result for Nadal won't be within the 12 month window anymore, of course. But it'll likely be replaced by a few more points from Halle/Queens 2013. Haven't checked which one he is competing at, if indeed at all... or if Ferrer is competing at one of them (he didn't in 2012 or 2011).

Cogen

Thanks - looks like Ferrer has a decent chance of getting to the final through that draw then. Certainly has opened up for him a bit.

From recollection you've got the grass formula right (i.e. all points from 2012 and 75% of points from the best tournament of 2011) - slightly surprised that Nadal has quite such a big advantage over Ferrer in this (I had though thought that Ferrer's loss to Murray last year was the SF rather than QF).

Certainly going to make it interesting for #4 and #5 rankings and seeding up to there.

Just written script which converts my Excel spreadsheet into phpBB table code, so I can now easily update a chart on the forum with a simple "copy & paste".

I've put the chart up in the main article at the top.

man you're good at these! awesome effort

1) Sterling job, keep it up.

2) You have too much free time so you can make that table pretty

3) I do prefer the website though because I can give Murray the maximum points and give Djokovic, Federer and Nadal the minimum points

Cogen wrote:
Ferrer's bonus:
Wimbledon 2012 - 360pts
Olympics 2012 - 70pts
Wimbledon 2011 - 180pts * 0.75 = 135pts.
Total = 565pts

EDIT: Just realised by the time Wimbledon actually starts, that Halle result for Nadal won't be within the 12 month window anymore, of course. But it'll likely be replaced by a few more points from Halle/Queens 2013. Haven't checked which one he is competing at, if indeed at all... or if Ferrer is competing at one of them (he didn't in 2012 or 2011).

Ferrer won 's-Hertogenbosch last year so that's an extra 250 points. I presume he can keep these in his total too since they will be in the 12 months prior to the seedings being decided.

I've got a question about rankings; what happens to the Olympic ranking points? When do they come off?

Ahhh, thanks Yvonne! I didn't realise 's-Hertogenbosch was a grass tournament. Should have done really, looking at the time of year it is played!

I believe you are right that it would still be included when Wimbledon seeds are calculated because it is the week directly before Wimbledon, as opposed to Queens and Halle which are two weeks before.

The Special Juan wrote:I've got a question about rankings; what happens to the Olympic ranking points? When do they come off?

Same as all other points, they come off exactly a year later! Sucks for Murray cos he has no way to defend those 750 points. Needs a comfy buffer over his nearest rival if he wants to stay ahead at that point.

Cogen wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I've got a question about rankings; what happens to the Olympic ranking points? When do they come off?

Same as all other points, they come off exactly a year later! Sucks for Murray cos he has no way to defend those 750 points. Needs a comfy buffer over his nearest rival if he wants to stay ahead at that point.

Thanks That's rather unfortunate.

The Special Juan wrote:

Cogen wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I've got a question about rankings; what happens to the Olympic ranking points? When do they come off?

Same as all other points, they come off exactly a year later! Sucks for Murray cos he has no way to defend those 750 points. Needs a comfy buffer over his nearest rival if he wants to stay ahead at that point.

Thanks That's rather unfortunate.

It is fair though, this is not a 4 year ranking system and is based on year to year form. "Unfortunate" has nothing to do with that.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:

Cogen wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I've got a question about rankings; what happens to the Olympic ranking points? When do they come off?

Same as all other points, they come off exactly a year later! Sucks for Murray cos he has no way to defend those 750 points. Needs a comfy buffer over his nearest rival if he wants to stay ahead at that point.

Thanks That's rather unfortunate.

It is fair though, this is not a 4 year ranking system and is based on year to year form. "Unfortunate" has nothing to do with that.

Of course. I won't dispute that.

Fantastic job Cogen. The effort you put into this is greatly appreciated

Look at Haas go!

Hey... guys... guys... hey guys... hey... guys...

Guess what? ... Guys? ... Guess what...

MURRAY IS WORLD NUMBER TWO!

Cogen wrote:Hey... guys... guys... hey guys... hey... guys...

Guess what? ... Guys? ... Guess what...

MURRAY IS WORLD NUMBER TWO!

Well done Andy. Got there through a long run of consistent results since Wimbledon last year.

Yep! We all know that this time it's 100% on merit

With the clay court season coming up Andy has a chance to cement the No.2 spot as he hasn't got a tremendous amount of points to defend. More than anything I'd like to see him have his strongest clay court season ever. I do feel he is still to do himself justice on this surface apart from a couple of performances.

What are the chances of Murray catching Djokovic over the next few months? Well, lets break it down...

With Nadal at no.5, assuming he is at his dominant clay-court best, we could potentially see Djokovic losing quite a few points.

If Djokovic gets a string of bad draws he could face Nadal in the QF of every clay court event. Unlikely, but not impossible. If that happens, and Nadal wins every match then Djokovic's adjustments would look like this:

Monte Carlo: -600 +180 = 420pt loss.
Rome: -600 +180 = 420pt loss.
Madrid: -180 +180 = No change.
French Open: -1200 +360 = 840pt loss.

Total loss: 1680pts.
12370 - 1680 = 10690 as a potential total after the French Open.

So with Murray on 8750 right now, under those circumstances he would need to bump his total by 1940pts to catch Djokovic.

Murray has a total of 720pts to defend over the entire clay season so he'd need a haul of 2660pts to catch Djokovic.

Yikes! That is a big target even under those 'ideal' circumstances! (We can't see Djokovic losing any earlier than QFs, can we?)

Just about possible if he reached the final in all the Masters and lost to Nadal (600+600+600 = 1800), and reached the semi-final of the French (1800+720 = 2520) and picked up a few points in Barcelona.... semi would do (2520+180 = 2700).

That is a HUGE ask. Doesn't look likely Murray will be able to take number 1 on the clay.

There's only one thing for it Andy... You have to win Wimbledon!

Cogen, the only place I can see Andy perhaps getting close this year is after Cincinatti. Granted, he's going to lose 750 points for the Olympics and it's unlikely he'll take in one of the North American 500's to make up for (2/3rds) of it, and really only then if he goes on a Queens/Wimbledon/Toronto tear.

No way will Murray overtake Djokovic by the end of the clay court season. By the end of Wimbledon is an outside chance as Murray has little to defend at Queen's though must win Wimbledon to pick up points. If memory serves Andy has a fair few points to defend in the autumn so he still looks like he will have a long wait especially if you consider he will lose his points won at the Olympics (750 points).

The winddown feature on Cogen's site is a nice tool, though it's out of date for this tournament just gone and I'm sure the dramatic swings from this week will change the shape slightly.

As far as I can make out the race from the week leading into the US Open, Djokovic 7200 , Murray 5900 and Ferrer 5210. I think I'm right in reading that Daveed is actually leading a post-Shanghai race.

Must say Cogen - excellent thread, excellent site!

Dave. wrote:Must say Cogen - excellent thread, excellent site!

Aww, shucks.

FYI everyone, the Wind Down has been updated now that the rankings have been officially published.

As you can see on the chart above Federer did not play the start of the clay season last year. So, assuming he plays this year, he only really has to match Murray round-for-round and he'll probably move back up to number 2.

Madrid will be the big test though, where Federer won the title and has 1,000pts to defend, and Murray did not play. That is the tournament which could book Murray into the #2 spot for the French Open.

Great chart cogen, so Federer has 1/2 his points to defend in the next 14 weeks - approx. 4500. Wow. Is he playing any more this clay season than last? I'd Madrid is slowed down, which I'm sure it will, his 1000pts there are very vulnerable.

Cogen wrote:As you can see on the chart above Federer did not play the start of the clay season last year. So, assuming he plays this year, he only really has to match Murray round-for-round and he'll probably move back up to number 2.

Madrid will be the big test though, where Federer won the title and has 1,000pts to defend, and Murray did not play. That is the tournament which could book Murray into the #2 spot for the French Open.

Federer is not playing MC. Consequently, I don't see that he has much chance to gain on Murray at all, given it seems highly unlikely he will improve on the 1360 points from Rome/Madrid last year.

Yes potentially feds could drop out of the top 5 and even further after wimby