Monte Carlo 1000 match thread

[lydian]

First topic message reminder :

Thread for the week to discuss the matches outside the 606Tour and Pick threads.

Mixture of R1 and R2 (?) matches today...

[13] S. Wawrinka vs D. Istomin - 1st Round - Apr 16, 9:30 AM
F. Verdasco vs M. Matosevic - 1st Round - Apr 16, 9:30 AM
A. Ramos vs R. Stepanek - 1st Round - Apr 16, 9:30 AM
[6] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Nikolay Davydenko - 2nd Round - Apr 16, 9:30 AM
[8] Janko Tipsarevic vs Grigor Dimitrov - 2nd Round - Apr 16, 9:30 AM
[7] Richard Gasquet vs Benoit Paire - 2nd Round - Apr 16, 11:00 AM
[WC] Benjamin Balleret vs Florian Mayer - 1st Round - Apr 16, 11:00 AM
[16] Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Pablo Andujar - 2nd Round - Apr 16, 11:00 AM
V. Hanescu vs M. Granollers - 1st Round - Apr 16, 11:30 AM
J. Huta Galung vs J. Melzer - 1st Round - Apr 16, 1:30 PM
K. Anderson vs J. Janowicz - 1st Round - Apr 16, 1:30 PM
[WC] G. Monfils vs A. Montanes - 1st Round - Apr 16, 1:30 PM
[10] N. Almagro vs D. Goffin - 1st Round - Apr 16, 2:00 PM
J. Isner vs E. Gulbis - 1st Round - Apr 16, 2:00 PM
[14] J. Monaco vs M. Klizan - 1st Round - Apr 16, 3:30 PM
[5] Juan Martin Del Potro vs Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2nd Round - Apr 16, 3:30 PM



http://www.atpworldtour.com/scores/schedule.aspx?year=2013&eventid=410

[lags72]

bitf : agree with your assessment there.

Any hopes of the consistency needed to dethrone Djokovic as Number One again are now gone for ever. But as far as a one-off clash goes, the semi-retired Fed could still produce a bit of magic .........

[invisiblecoolers]

Should Djoko win here what does it tell us? Is Nadal's last stronghold (clay) about to be breached? Is it more of Nadal still finding his way back to fitness?

I know I never expected this and I am sure it will be a blow to Rafa's confidence.

I always expected this.

I think it will depend on what you think in general about this match up. I am of the school of thought that holds that last year's Nole's losses were mainly due to Nole's underperformance. I think when he plays to his potential, he will win more often than not. And what makes it even worse for Rafa, I think both Nole and Rafa know this too.

But there are those who think the match-up is more finely poised and last year Rafa more or less found the answers to Nole's game. I think if you are in this camp, you will tend to view this as just another match in their seesaw battle for supremacy. In that case, I suspect you will be far more inclined to think that Rafa may yet find ways to turn it around - especially with his clay court pedigree.

I'm firmly in this camp. I think Djokovic is flat out the better player at this stage in their respective careers and unlike with Federer, Rafa doesn't have a matchup advantage to see him through. I also though Rafa clawed some ground back last year because of underperformance from Novak not because he, Rafa, had found some solutions. That was just wishful thinking on the part of his fans. Rafa played the same way against Novak in 2012 as he did in 2011, as he did today. The match is on Novak's racquet.

This H2H will only get worse for Nadal particularly once the HC's kick in. Novak has now won 11 of the last 15 across all surfaces starting from 2009. He's basically dominated Rafa at the latter's very peak years. No excuses.

Should make for an interesting RG.



emancipator - may the serve be with you.

Djoko's 2011 could never be repeated by himself was my statement and I stick to it, in 2012 he couldn't stand the expectations and hence crumbled and Rafa did take advantage of it, if Djoko has a great year in 2013 he will crumble back again in 2014, I won't be surprised if Fedal again Nails him down next year, btw its time for Murray to wake up and do some talking with the racket.

[invisiblecoolers]

bitf : agree with your assessment there.

Any hopes of the consistency needed to dethrone Djokovic as Number One again are now gone for ever. But as far as a one-off clash goes, the semi-retired Fed could still produce a bit of magic .........

The good part is that even Djoko knows it.

[summerblues]

Wow, amazing play by Djoko, one more of Nadal's forte is broken to pieces, I hope I get my wishes Nadal-Djoko FO quarters

I second that.

[invisiblecoolers]

Wow, amazing play by Djoko, one more of Nadal's forte is broken to pieces, I hope I get my wishes Nadal-Djoko FO quarters

I second that.

[slashermcguirk]

Incredible performance from djokovic. That return game at 5-6 was phenomenal, how clean he was striking the ball. Hats off to nadal for his amazing record at Monte Carlo but he had no answers today.

Being on the clay season, this result makes it much more interesting

[lydian]

Djokovic

Great performance, deserved the win.

What does it matter if Djokovic plays Nadal in QF, SF or F?

emancipator - may the serve be with you.

Lol, you mean may the Serb be with you?

[bogbrush]

The official RG draw is here

Qtr: Nadal plays Ferrer

Semis: Nadal plays Djokovic, Federer plays Murray

Final: Federer plays Djokovic, who looks stiff as well he might after his rain-delayed 12 hour semi-final straight sets win over Nadal.

[CaledonianCraig]

The official RG draw is here

Qtr: Nadal plays Ferrer

Semis: Nadal plays Djokovic, Federer plays Murray

Final: Federer plays Djokovic, who looks stiff as well he might after his rain-delayed 12 hour semi-final straight sets win over Nadal.

Bloomin' 'eck BB. Are you tipping Andy to get to the semis after his weak showing in Monte Carlo?

[Jeremy_Kyle]

I think Rafa was at his very best today. Djokovic was today, by some margin, the better player on Rafa's favourite ground. Had more shots, more game and on the physical side he matched pretty well Rafa's prowess. Rafa only got his chances during the few dips in concentration of the Serb, otherwise was thoroughly outplayed.

[summerblues]

I think Rafa was at his very best today. Djokovic was today, by some margin, the better player on Rafa's favourite ground. Had more shots, more game and on the physical side he matched pretty well Rafa's prowess. Rafa only got his chances during the few dips in concentration of the Serb, otherwise was thoroughly outplayed.

You like going for the hyperbole but this time I pretty much agree.

Rafa "at his very best" is perhaps a bit too strong - I am sure he can find matches where he played better. But he played much better than against Dimi or Tsonga. I think he played about as well as one can expect Rafa to play on clay - not the finest masterpiece he ever produced but not below his usual standard either - yet he came up well short.

I also agree that had it not been for Nole's dips in concentration, the scoreline could have been even cleaner.

[socal1976]

Incredible performance from djokovic. That return game at 5-6 was phenomenal, how clean he was striking the ball. Hats off to nadal for his amazing record at Monte Carlo but he had no answers today.

Being on the clay season, this result makes it much more interesting

Slasher Novak won 11 of the last 12 points of the match the last one a beautiful forehand winner off the short return, what a performance. Nadal lost almost 2 to 1 of the rallies over 10 shots. It was such clean ball striking, and I was hoping Novak shouldn't play this tournament. Never happier to be wrong! Now the fight is on between the two for the big jewel.

[laverfan]

Very well done, Djokovic.

[summerblues]

Never happier to be wrong!

How would you know? Is this not the first time?

Congrats, your man has done really well today; kind of back to his 2011 tennis. Let's hope Novak can beat Rafa in FO (before the final, of course ).

[Jeremy_Kyle]

Never happier to be wrong!

How would you know? Is this not the first time?

Congrats, your man has done really well today; kind of back to his 2011 tennis. Let's hope Novak can beat Rafa in FO (before the final, of course ).

I hope Djokovic will never come to know to be Socal's man. I don't think he would take it too well to say the least

[CaledonianCraig]

Well done to Novak. You could see in his reaction at the end what it meant to him and knew he had struck an important psychological blow to Rafa on a court he had owned for eight years.

[invisiblecoolers]

Never happier to be wrong!

How would you know? Is this not the first time?

Congrats, your man has done really well today; kind of back to his 2011 tennis. Let's hope Novak can beat Rafa in FO (before the final, of course ).

I hope Djokovic will never come to know to be Socal's man. I don't think he would take it too well to say the least

[bogbrush]

I'm sure Rafa will be praying for hot, dry weather at RG. He suffered badly last year when the rain was chucking it down and the court became like porridge. He needs faster conditions to get some pay off for his heavier shots.

[socal1976]

Well done to Novak. You could see in his reaction at the end what it meant to him and knew he had struck an important psychological blow to Rafa on a court he had owned for eight years.

I agree Craig, I guess this is why Novak wanted this final because beating Nadal here would be a great way to lay down his marker for the rest of the clay court season. The way he finished the match breaking back and running away with the tiebreaker was very surprising and must be very disconcerting for Nadal.

[socal1976]

Never happier to be wrong!

How would you know? Is this not the first time?

Congrats, your man has done really well today; kind of back to his 2011 tennis. Let's hope Novak can beat Rafa in FO (before the final, of course ).

Even Nostrafreakingdamus can be wrong, it happens on occasion.

[laverfan]

The missed Bagel in first set would have conveyed an even stronger message.

[lydian]

I don't agree this was Nadal near his best, he was missing an awful lot of relatively regulation shots. His UE count today was huge for a 2 set match on clay. We also have to remember this was his first true test since coming back against Novak or Andy and if I'm honest I didn't expect him to win - he's been giving ground to players all week that he wouldn't normally. I'm sure by RG he'll be 10% better, and the loss today gives him things to think about and work on. He was beaten by the better player on the day, absolutely no doubt but I don't see it as quite the death knell in the rivalry others are making out. The MC record couldn't last forever, everything comes to an end eventually and in some respects it probably became a monkey on his back.

I agree with BB about the cold conditions, it was 11-15c in MC today which is cold for Monaco and likewise cold for clay and probably the coldest MC final he's played in.

A blog from just before today's match said: "It is hosing it down in Monte Carlo. Freezing cold, sopping wet, rain pinging onto the umbrellas so hard, it's bouncing back up again towards the clouds they've come from. Then they're coming down again. Annabel Croft, stationed under a brolly at the court, says it's set in for the day."

Photo before final today:


Similarly Hamburg was always damp and cold, colder than MC today actually - hence why Federer had such great success there vs the other warmer clay Masters. Colder weather makes the clay damper and clump together more making it play more like a hardcourt than a claycourt. We saw the light and shade difference damp conditions made to RG12 final. Nadal must have seen the conditions today and been dismayed at his luck.

Infact I'd say just about whenever Nole has had success against Nadal on clay it's been cool or damp conditions, or rather I don't remember a clay final/match lost in warm/hot/dry conditions although I could be wrong. For example, at Madrid 2011 it rained heavily the day before and they played semis under the roof, making the courts damp as they do to Wimbledon grass also. Still, that's the conditions Nadal has to face but it does make for bounce/surface much better suited to Djokovic's flatter game no doubt. Therefore I dont take this win and extrapolate it as being a win forever more on clay..alot simply depends on day-form and prevailing conditions. However, Nadal should like Barcelona, it's forecasted to be around 10c warmer all week. I don't think Nadal is pushing the panic button just yet.

[slashermcguirk]

Just flicked on fed cup, like watching hackers in the local club!! After watching djokovic vs nadal, it's like watching a different sport entirely. Unbelievably bad!!

[lydian]

Yeah agree slasher.
Baltacha lost 6-1 in the 3rd so our goose is cooked.

[slashermcguirk]

At one stage the moonballs were at the height of the upper stands in the stadium. Shocking stuff. Okay back to men's tennis, bring on the next masters tournament. Can't get over the standard of top of men's game these days.

[socal1976]

What I do not get from your analysis of weather and its impact on clay and nadal's game is why it seems that djokovic is the only beneficiary of the loss of bite on the spin due to damp conditions. I have been to the continent in spring and it is not a rarity to get cool and damp days during this time of the year. If this disadvantages nadal so much he should have difficulty against other flat ball strikers on the numerous cold and damp days throughout the years. Instead he beats pretty much everyone else sunny or rainy, and this time of the year in Europe I am sure he has played plenty of players over the years on damp clay courts. Yet djokovic is the only one to have managed to capitalize on this weakness in three different masters finals?

[The Special Juan]

Embarrassing for Team GB.

[laverfan]

@lydian ... Djokovic had hell of a time @USO. Nadal has been to MC 9 years and is no stranger to conditions and hence lost to better player of the day, as is always the case.

All these players learn from Tennis history.

@slasher... Moon balling is not a gender-specific affliction.

[lydian]

Well Socal, I'd say Dimi and Tsonga were also beneficiaries. Trust me I'm a big fan of Dimi's game but on clay, in good weather...just good, and on Nadal's 80-90% form then guys like those are usually dismissed 6-2 6-2 ish. On damp clay he can still win against most guys but we're talking about guys he has particular trouble with...ie Novak, we know he's a breed apart.

At the end of the day you saw the difference damp, colder weather made when that weather came over Paris during last years final though. You'll note he missed Hamburg 04-06, and guys like Ljubicic, partic. Hewitt, and Fed did well in their damper colder conditions cf. than they would do elsewhere.

[socal1976]

I don't disagree with what you are saying but I think you are making too much of the conditions. In April and May in Europe you have maybe as many rainy and wet days as you have dry days, and it has never stopped nadal from running rampant over this stretch of the season. I personally believe that on their day either player can beat the other regardless of conditions. Nadal is good enough to beat Djoko on a hardcourt and djoko when he plays as cleanly as he does today can beat Nadal on clay weather it is wet or dry. If it was such a big deal to Nadal he would have more losses on clay to other players as playing on damp clay in wet conditions is not something unique in the springtime on the continent. I see the problems Nadal has with Djokovic to be more determined by the matchup and his opponent than by weather conditions which I see as a more minor factor favoring one or the other on a given day.

[lydian]

Yes but Socal you forget I wasn't JUST pinning it on that. He's not yet 100%...and maybe Djokovic isn't either...but Nadal is still on comeback trail against the very top guys. We agree on the matchup...my point was to counter the death knell on Nadal, in that people seem to be extrapolating today's loss to some kind of point that Nadal will never beat Djokovic again. I counter that by saying today had unseasonably cold and damp conditions - even for April/May - and Nadal isn't quite back to top form...the 2nd set vs Dimi told me that, he's still spraying UEs all over the place.

[socal1976]

Well Lydian, I don't think he is back to 100 percent his best, but you do have to remember that the man played in 5 straight finals and did just win IW, so I don't think he is that far off what his best is. It easy to forget that Nadal was the hottest player on tour for the last 2 months. I do agree that this was his first big 4 match, his first time against the world #1, and I also agree with you that in no way is this death knell of the rivalrly.

On the other hand, it was Novak's first clay court event of the year while Nadal has played a month of clay court tennis before this event. Also while Novak's ankle proved a minor hiccup later in the event early on it was giving him trouble and probably kept him from practicing very intensely prior to the tournament.

Still I don't want to harp on who had what advantages in this particular match, I agree that this in no way precludes Nadal winning against djoko in the future. But I do think that as you indicated yourself that this matchup is an uncomfortable one for Nadal and in the future the percentages seem to favor djoko, I think that is all I have been saying on this thread. Certainly, Nadal is not done or anything like that I have been very optimistic in my views of his comeback and his ability. But I will say that Djoko is probably my number one favorite for RG based on early indications.

[Born Slippy]

Nadal played very well today. There was no sign of any rustiness and he brought his best match of the tournament to the final. I'm afraid, as I said before the match, that I do think any match between these two is on Novak's racquet. That doesn't mean Nadal won't win matches between them - we saw last year that if Novak is off his game then Rafa can win quite easily - but if Novak brings his A-game then Rafa doesn't have a tactic which can alter the match in his favour. Worth noting he served at 72% today which is very good for Rafa but only won just over 50% of points on his first serve.

[socal1976]

Nadal played very well today. There was no sign of any rustiness and he brought his best match of the tournament to the final. I'm afraid, as I said before the match, that I do think any match between these two is on Novak's racquet. That doesn't mean Nadal won't win matches between them - we saw last year that if Novak is off his game then Rafa can win quite easily - but if Novak brings his A-game then Rafa doesn't have a tactic which can alter the match in his favour. Worth noting he served at 72% today which is very good for Rafa but only won just over 50% of points on his first serve.

Yes BS, I think Nadal had one easy service game the hold match, Novak returns Nadal's serve so much better than pretty much everyone else. Nadal is too predictable in kicking the second serve out to Novak's backhand. That is a very comfortable return for Novak, even more so if he can rely on Nadal hitting it there 90 percent of the time. Nadal needs to mix it up on his serve, serve to Novak's forehand and his body more often. 72 percent first percentage resulting in 5 breaks in just two sets of play is a very disconcerting stat for Nadal. I agree with you that if Novak plays well Nadal is going to be very hard pressed to win regardless of the surface. Nadal's patterns of getting the ball high and on his opponents backhand feeds into Djoko's strength. I think hitting 72 percent of serves in a tournament you have won 8 times and being beaten convincingly with 5 breaks in two sets speaks to your point. He can't break down Novak's backhand, he can't just outlast and out consistent him, he doesn't hold his serve enough, and to add insult to injury it was Novak hitting heavy cross court forehands and down the line backhands to Rafa's backhand and breaking that wing down. Novak took Nadal's bread and butter play on the clay and used it against him.

[laverfan]

At one stage the moonballs were at the height of the upper stands in the stadium. Shocking stuff. Okay back to men's tennis, bring on the next masters tournament. Can't get over the standard of top of men's game these days.

Nadal v Tsonga 1-2 0-15 to 15-15 as an example, is as embarassing as any Evert-Seles moon baling.

[laverfan]

We agree on the matchup...my point was to counter the death knell on Nadal, in that people seem to be extrapolating today's loss to some kind of point that Nadal will never beat Djokovic again.

Quite agree. Very difficult to generalise by just one match.

I counter that by saying today had unseasonably cold and damp conditions - even for April/May - and Nadal isn't quite back to top form...the 2nd set vs Dimi told me that, he's still spraying UEs all over the place.

The Tsonga-Nadal match was under similar conditions, not as much rain, perhaps. The number of miles on the body is also a factor in spraying UEs.

[invisiblecoolers]

Well Lydian, I don't think he is back to 100 percent his best, but you do have to remember that the man played in 5 straight finals and did just win IW, so I don't think he is that far off what his best is. It easy to forget that Nadal was the hottest player on tour for the last 2 months. I do agree that this was his first big 4 match, his first time against the world #1, and I also agree with you that in no way is this death knell of the rivalrly.

On the other hand, it was Novak's first clay court event of the year while Nadal has played a month of clay court tennis before this event. Also while Novak's ankle proved a minor hiccup later in the event early on it was giving him trouble and probably kept him from practicing very intensely prior to the tournament.

Still I don't want to harp on who had what advantages in this particular match, I agree that this in no way precludes Nadal winning against djoko in the future. But I do think that as you indicated yourself that this matchup is an uncomfortable one for Nadal and in the future the percentages seem to favor djoko, I think that is all I have been saying on this thread. Certainly, Nadal is not done or anything like that I have been very optimistic in my views of his comeback and his ability. But I will say that Djoko is probably my number one favorite for RG based on early indications.

Actually I agree with Socal here , Nadal can beat Djoko but on most occasions Djoko gonna come through, it would interesting to see how Rafa responds if they both are pitted in the quarters of the French Open, if Nadal end up 5th seed its very likely he could meet Djoko in the quarters, will Nadal give his best nor think he did enough in FO and this one is just a quarters and hence might not take the issue seriously.

[lydian]

Well Lydian, I don't think he is back to 100 percent his best, but you do have to remember that the man played in 5 straight finals and did just win IW, so I don't think he is that far off what his best is. It easy to forget that Nadal was the hottest player on tour for the last 2 months. I do agree that this was his first big 4 match, his first time against the world #1, and I also agree with you that in no way is this death knell of the rivalrly.

On the other hand, it was Novak's first clay court event of the year while Nadal has played a month of clay court tennis before this event. Also while Novak's ankle proved a minor hiccup later in the event early on it was giving him trouble and probably kept him from practicing very intensely prior to the tournament.

Still I don't want to harp on who had what advantages in this particular match, I agree that this in no way precludes Nadal winning against djoko in the future. But I do think that as you indicated yourself that this matchup is an uncomfortable one for Nadal and in the future the percentages seem to favor djoko, I think that is all I have been saying on this thread. Certainly, Nadal is not done or anything like that I have been very optimistic in my views of his comeback and his ability. But I will say that Djoko is probably my number one favorite for RG based on early indications.

But as I wrote a week or so back those 4 finals prior to here were slightly deceiving, flattering perhaps. In the most significant final - IW - Delpo simply choked that match away in the 2nd then ran out of fuel in the 3rd. Nadal has been consistently hitting short, his serve is lacking pace - very little between 1st and 2nd really, his slice has lost a lot of the bite it used to have, and even his FH rpm is down. These all speak to timing issues from being out of the game so long. It's still not properly there yet.

At MC, IMO he struggled unnecessarily against Dimitrov and Tsonga, then yesterday I fail to see how he was stated to be near his best. That's just bigging up Djokovic - who played very well nonetheless. Yesterday Nadal made loads of UEs, his slice again lacked any bite, more mid court balls, plus he critically and fatally overplayed Novak's BH wing when last year he was targeting the FH side. Nadal seems to have forgotten what Novak does....he plays CC to Djokovic's BH who then hits down the line to Nadal's BH. Nadal invariably then hits his BH CC but with little depth exposing his FH side. Time and time again this happened yesterday, I just thought it was a very poor tactical match from Nadal. The rain/damp clearly affected the 1st set, and from there he was chasing the game. In reality Nadal has got a lot of work to do tactically. I also thought he looked fatigued and slightly heavy, he's still carrying a little bit too much weight...2-3% body fat too much perhaps. I actually wonder if he can ever regain his pre-injury form again (he was miles ahead in the race in 2012 at the point he pulled out), 8 months out is a hell of a long time and the game moves on constantly. A lot will come down to his own motivation and will to succeed, he must be staring in the mirror this morning seeing the enormity of the task ahead of him where many things in his game and body rigorous need fine tuning.

Anyway, as HMM says its great to have change at the top on clay, nothing lasts forever and maybe this was the new challenge Nadal needed, maybe he can't re-challenge, we'll see but I don't think that was anyway near peak Nadal yesterday, maybe 80% at best - 65% 1st set, 85-90% 2nd set (and that's generous tbh, the way he lost 12 out of last 13 points was a worry). Djokovic can still play better too. Interesting signals ahead to other players now...

[socal1976]

Good post Lydian, I do agree with you in some points but I don't know about Indian wells flattering Nadal del Po was playing out of his mind on a hardcourt and should have won that match. Nadal did well to stay with him lets remember that Del Po beat the two best hardcourt players on tour in that tournament right before Nadal on his form. I do agree that if Del Po didn't choke and then get tired he would have won, but a lesser player than Nadal would not of been able to capitalize and extend the match and put him in that position.

I do think his form for some reason dropped in this tournament the longer and longer it went for some reason. It could be that he still is not at the fitness level he will be for some time.

I also agree that Nadal played a very poor tactical match directing his fire all day at Djoko's backhand. But the tactic looked really poor because Djokovic was really firing for most of the match on that backhand side. In particular his down the line BH followed by flat CC backhand was a devastating combo. When Nadal tried to play djoko's forehand Novak hurt him even earlier in the points, he hit the ball very cleanly off both wings. So I don't think Nadal would have had much more joy feeding Novak lots of Fhs either.

I do agree I think both players will be better at RG barring any physical issues than they currently are. But I don't think Nadal is as poor in terms of his progress in the comeback as you seem to think, lets remember he is the same player who almost double bagelled poor Ferrer the world #4 player on clay. He beat an in form del po and put Roger to the sword as well. These are some big wins against top ten players in big matches so I think he isn't as deficient as you seem to think. Both players can and will play better but I actually thought in the second set the Nadal was very close to turning that match. In 2011, the same thing happened in Madrid where he came back on Djokovic and Djokovic slammed the door on him after Nadal fought to comeback, similar to what also happened at the AO 2012 as well. So I don't know if it is just a function of his injury.

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