Ladrokes suspend bets on Warbuton to captain the Lions

Following a flood of money in the last 48 hours Ladrokes have suspended taking any more bets on Warburton captaining the Lions in the 1st test match http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/rugby-warburton-well-backed-captain-lions-110120373.html . It's amazing how fortunes change, from being a hero going into the World Cup semi final, a 'villain' (unfairly so) after the World Cup semi final, to a zero (unfairly so) after the Ireland game, to a hero after the Scotland and England matches.

On the basis that bookmakers seldom get it wrong, does this mean that Warburton will be at 6 - surely he can't be picked at 7 ahead of Tipuric? This will 'free up' the likes of Robshaw and Wood for the Argentina tour.

Im sure the decision has alreay been made and perhaps it got leaked. I believe that the team will be announced in 11 days. Isnt the captain usually announced beforehand? Do we have a date for the anouncement?

I wouldnt be at all surprised if Warburton got the gig. Well deserved too.

Some other good options too like Robshaw, POC, BOD etc. but cant argue with SW.

Both 6 and 7 are a position of strength for the Lions but I think most people would have Tipuric at 7 as you say. Don't think Warburton has been in sparkling form generally but I don't see much of his club rugby.

Warburton could very easily be picked ahead of Tipuric. If Ryan Jones had been fit to face England it is very likely (based on previous selections) that he would have been picked at 6 and Sam at 7 with Tipuric warming the bench.

Warburton is not the right choice for several reasons, 5 of the best as follows:

1. After one of wales' many losses to oz he publicly blamed Preistland. That is not taking collective responsibility. That is not leadership. If words have to be had - do it in private. Captaincy 101 fail right there.

2. He plays in the back row which is far and away our most competetive area for selection. He is not even in my 1st XV but on bench.

3. He declined welsh captaincy vs France "to concentrate on his own game". That is not the action of a true leader.

4. He is welsh. The Lions should if possible have an Irish captain to balance things. POC would be my choice.

5. He captained wales to a bunch of losses vs Oz and wont be feared or even particularly respected by the wallabies.

I like Warburton but O'Connell would be the stand out for me, hes has the experience of doing it before and commands the respect of his fellow professionals, is a natural leader on and off the pitch and has shown how good he is by dragging Munster up to his level since hes been back

Triangulation wrote:4. He is welsh. The Lions should if possible have an Irish captain to balance things.

What???

It was obviously pre planned by Gatland, thats why Warbs was spared the captaincy in the 6N to avoid the media building up the Robshaw v Warburton thing.

If England had of won the 6N and Gatland had of picked Warbs as captain he'd never have lived it down.

Shrewd work Mr Gatland, very shrewd indeed

I am not sure if your point 4 is a joke - I am English and not Welsh and agree that nationality does come into the equation, which is why I thought Robshaw never had a chance of captaining the Lions - do the Irish have some mystical captaincy ability? Do the other 3 nations accept the Irish better than they would any other nationaility.

On point 2, I don't see that being the best player in your position is a pre-requisite to be captain - Finlay Calder 1989 is for me a case in point. Not the best in his position, but definitely the best man to captain the tour and the team.

POC because of age and injury would have to be a significant doubt that he will make the tour and even if he does be able to play 3 tests. I think he did a good job on the last tour, but I think if asked he would probably prefer to be just playing his rugby rather than worrying about the captaincy.

Point 3, perhaps he did what he thought was the right thing for the team, ie I don't deserve to walk back into the team as captain.

I am not saying you are wrong, but the Irish have not exactly been successful against Southern hemisphere teams with POC playing, neither for that matter has any other prospective captain.

I think Gatland knows Warburton, clearly ear marked him as the long term Welsh captain and it looks like he will get the nod.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Triangulation wrote:4. He is welsh. The Lions should if possible have an Irish captain to balance things.

What???

Pretty obvious FES.

The squad is going to be heavily welsh. The head coach is head coach of wales. England are supplying 2 assistant coaches and one or two players.

SO to balance out the contribution of the 4 countries i'd have an Irish captain where possible and certainly not a welsh one. Just so happens that we have just the outstanding candidate in POC.

All of the above applies equally to the Scots of course but i couldnt find a Scottish captaincy candidate.

I hope that is clear now.

It certainly won't be fun tour, Warburton doesn't drink. The lads won't have much fun out on the lash if their captain frowns upon it. Look at the 97 tour behind the scenes. The lads had a great time because Johnno and the boys got hammered after every match, it looked great fun! Warbuton is only 24, who is honestly going to respect him, Australia?BOD? Tuilagi? No Chance.

Big Mac Michael wrote:It certainly won't be fun tour, Warburton doesn't drink. The lads won't have much fun out on the lash if their captain frowns upon it. Look at the 97 tour behind the scenes. The lads had a great time because Johnno and the boys got hammered after every match, it looked great fun! Warbuton is only 24, who is honestly going to respect him, Australia?BOD? Tuilagi? No Chance.

The bit in bold resonates very much with me. Warburton has made great play of this in the press.

There were a lot of comments coming out of the welsh camp at and following the RWC about their own impeccable "off field" behaviour.

Triangulation wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Triangulation wrote:4. He is welsh. The Lions should if possible have an Irish captain to balance things.

What???

Pretty obvious FES.

The squad is going to be heavily welsh. The head coach is head coach of wales. England are supplying 2 assistant coaches and one or two players.

SO to balance out the contribution of the 4 countries i'd have an Irish captain where possible and certainly not a welsh one. Just so happens that we have just the outstanding candidate in POC.

All of the above applies equally to the Scots of course but i couldnt find a Scottish captaincy candidate.

I hope that is clear now.

My crazy idea is that the captain should be the best man for the job. They are all Lions.

If Gatland wasn't the coach would he have been chosen as captain? I can't see it myself given his last 12 months of rugby.

A player who has struggled not just with his own performance but also to lead his team in difficult circumstances is slightly worrying. The very best captains tend to thrive in the pressure environments and tend to up their game... Warburton seems to shine when he's relieved of the pressure of the job/expectation of putting in a performance when no one else seems to be able to do so.

I think its a mistake myself... for the lions and Warburton and it could prove to be a major one.

In all probability he'll be made captain though. I read somewhere that McGeechan said a month ago the captain had already been chosen and informed of the decision.

Brown is an outside chance of being Captain from a Scottish POV

I don't think Brown will tour myself... not my personal view but I don't think Gatland will take him initially. Robshaw is no cert either.

Hope this isn't true, would be an awful choice.

I recon you may be right, but it will be a wrong decision IMO

Becoming a great captain and the kind of grafter you need

Less of these show ponies

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Triangulation wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Triangulation wrote:4. He is welsh. The Lions should if possible have an Irish captain to balance things.

What???

Pretty obvious FES.

The squad is going to be heavily welsh. The head coach is head coach of wales. England are supplying 2 assistant coaches and one or two players.

SO to balance out the contribution of the 4 countries i'd have an Irish captain where possible and certainly not a welsh one. Just so happens that we have just the outstanding candidate in POC.

All of the above applies equally to the Scots of course but i couldnt find a Scottish captaincy candidate.

I hope that is clear now.

My crazy idea is that the captain should be the best man for the job. They are all Lions.

I agree best man for the job. For my 5 good reasons above that is not Warburton. Nitpick all you like and discount my nationality balance reason if you will. The other 4 reasons or reason 1 which no one has challenged are reason enough.

I'm just marking* this thread - it should make for interesting reading...




* - Like dogs do.

Unfortunately for Brown, he's never really played in any big matches. We can't say that a 6N Scotland vs. Italy is a big match and that will cost him.

The lions 2nd test is the biggest match in rugby outside of a RWC final and you need to know your players and especially your captain can live with that type of pressure.

One guy who I thought played out of his skin in this situation was Robshaw.... ok England lost but I think he played his heart out vs. Wales in the last match... it was other players who lost their heads. Captains can only do so much even if they set the trend.... he's had his bumps along the road though which may cost him even his seat on the plane.

But Robshaw is a tricky player to put in your team. He's not a 7, he's a small 6... he's not prolific in the lineout, he isn't a Sean O'Brien level carrier.

Warburton.... in the big matches of late he's played best without the responsibility. When he's had it, he's faltered.

If Warburton was Scottish would he be touring?

yes.

6. His preachey zero alcohol stance is at odds with grown ups having a couple of shandies to help bond - vital on any Lions tour.

7. According to Fa0019 and other neutrals he folds under pressure.

8.........

'Preachy zero alcohol stance'? Can you substantiate this, please? Warburton rarely drinks, but the Wales squad did go out for a few beers during the World Cup, they just had a curfew and adhered to it. This won't be a dry tour.

Triangulation wrote:yes.

6. His preachey zero alcohol stance is at odds with grown ups having a couple of shandies to help bond - vital on any Lions tour.

7. According to Fa0019 and other neutrals he folds under pressure.

8.........

I don't think he folds under pressure... he's played well since be relieved of the the captaincy... pressure will still be there. But some people suit the captaincy, some don't.... I would put Warburton in latter category.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:'Preachy zero alcohol stance'? Can you substantiate this, please? Warburton rarely drinks, but the Wales squad did go out for a few beers during the World Cup, they just had a curfew and adhered to it. This won't be a dry tour.

I agree, I doubt on tour he will enforce his own personal preferences amongst the rest of the squad.

fa0019 wrote:Unfortunately for Brown, he's never really played in any big matches. We can't say that a 6N Scotland vs. Italy is a big match and that will cost him.

The lions 2nd test is the biggest match in rugby outside of a RWC final and you need to know your players and especially your captain can live with that type of pressure.

One guy who I thought played out of his skin in this situation was Robshaw.... ok England lost but I think he played his heart out vs. Wales in the last match... it was other players who lost their heads. Captains can only do so much even if they set the trend.... he's had his bumps along the road though which may cost him even his seat on the plane.

But Robshaw is a tricky player to put in your team. He's not a 7, he's a small 6... he's not prolific in the lineout, he isn't a Sean O'Brien level carrier.

Warburton.... in the big matches of late he's played best without the responsibility. When he's had it, he's faltered.

Faltered/folded? semantics. Warburton made a lot of unecessary and irrelevant pronouncements about Wales off field behaviour around the last RWC.

Face it chaps it would be a big mistake to make him captain.

Triangulation, I know it's a chore, but could you produce examples of these pronouncements?

The media built up Wales's behaviour at the World Cup to be whiter than white, just as they portrayed England's behaviour as bacchanalian. Don't blame Warburton for the media's spin.

And in any case, I hardly think Warburton's views on alcohol are remotely relevant to whether he should captain the Lions!

England made a lot of unnecessary and irrelevant performances on the field at the last RWC. It happened and it's frustrating no doubt that they're remembered more for their off-field performances. Warburton isn't to blame for that Triangulation.

I'd rather see SOB at 6 and Tipuric and Faletau operating in combination but I too have a sneaking suspicion Gatland will plump for an all Welsh backrow. I think Robshaw, for example, would make a better captain but I just don't see Gatland accommodating him in the backrow because of the balance issue.

Warburton would be a good choice - I'm just laughing at the green envy and the purile verbal vomit coming from those that can't cope with his possible selection. That in itself is the most revealing - He's welsh, get over it, he has decided to cut down his alcohol; get over it - What do you want a bunch of dwarf throwing ship jumpers on the lash

The problem Gatland has is that there's no obvious choice. We've been debating it on here for months, and there really has been no consensus. The only noticeable trend is that the Irish seem to want an Irish captain, the Welsh a Welsh captain, the English an English captain, whilst us Scots just hope that Dr Robson isn't the only Scot on the tour.

You can argue a case for a number of candidates, and similarly find fault with any candidate. The biggest issue for me is finding someone who can start the Tests. I suspect that the line Gatland will take is that he is naming a "tour captain", and not a "test captain". An unorthodox approach, but given that there isn't really a single nailed on starter without dispute, I would understand it.

Were Warburton named "tour captain", I think he'd be as good a choice as any. Gatland knows Warburton and his qualities better than any of us. He also has first hand experience of what POC and BOD are like on tour, and similarly knows AWJ extremely well. Quite frankly, I'll back Gatland's judgement of their characters above my own.

I don't think there's a Scottish or English candidate suitable personally.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Triangulation, I know it's a chore, but could you produce examples of these pronouncements?

The media built up Wales's behaviour at the World Cup to be whiter than white, just as they portrayed England's behaviour as bacchanalian. Don't blame Warburton for the media's spin.

And in any case, I hardly think Warburton's views on alcohol are remotely relevant to whether he should captain the Lions!

Agree with this. There wont be a ban on alcohol, the fact is it's a highly competitive tour and if you're out on the lash every night and a pillock in training, someone will step in and take your place. Collective responsibility there.

And I don't see how nationality matters, it's not a case of 8 Welsh, 4 English, 3 Irish, it's 15 Lions

"it's not a case of 8 Welsh, 4 English, 3 Irish, it's 15 Lions" - Try telling that to a Scotsman

Warburton on being squeaky clean

"We're hoping for another campaign where we're squeaky clean and can focus on rugby. As for me, I didn't even have a Buck's Fizz over Christmas! I'm not an alcohol fan so it was a pretty easy decision for me. If it tasted nice I might have to think twice about it.
"The most important thing is not to have alcohol because it increases your recovery and I think the players have been educated quite well when it comes to things like that.
"Most of the squad have made the same decision. We realise the benefits [of not drinking] and the potential risks of alcohol, which is why a lot of us stay away from it."

Warburton blaming Preistland for Wales losing a Test Match

" With just over a minute left on the clock, fly-half Rhys Priestland booted the ball down field and that ultimately led to Australia earning the penalty which super-sub Mike Harris landed to snatch a 25-23 victory.
“The plan was to keep the ball,” revealed skipper Warburton.
“When the ball was kicked, I remember Ryan Jones shouting ‘No’ at the top of his voice.
“It wasn’t what the forwards were planning. Just a little bit of composure and patience was what was needed.
“I thought we had learned the lessons of that when we lost against the Barbarians last summer.
“As captain, I remember saying to myself that I wouldn’t let that happen again. But it has, so obviously the message wasn’t clear enough.”
Flanker Warburton continued: “It’s a difficult one, because there’s still the chance of the referee penalising us for sealing off and it was still within kicking range.
“So I can understand why the backs might have wanted to kick it. But from a forward point of view, I would have wanted us to back our contact skills and keep the ball.
“We’ve done that successfully before, like when you are trying to see sin-bins out. So we can do it.
“Hindsight is a great thing, but that’s what we should have done.”

If people don't think that nationality matters then people are living with blinkers on.

Regardless of form we all know that whoever the coach is they near always picks guys from his own bunch of players more than others would have done so.

Will this work well with the squad?

I recall Jonno highlighting it as a signficant issue in his critique of the 01 tour and many players have voiced their dismay at the old guard players SCW relied on.... even in 09 a lot of the 50/50 players were interesting...i.e. Andy Powell over Tom Croft, no Armitage over a player like Earls and Halfpenny (at the time) and guys like John Barclay never got a look in even though he was stand out the best openside in the UK at the time.

I think its a little more complicated then people make out. It happened in 01, 05, 09 and it will happen in this tour.

Rubyguby

I am not anti Welsh.

I am saying that i dont want sam warburton as Lions captain

I could live with AWJ as captain for example in spite of any balance issues.

It is precisely BECAUSE i anticipate a lot of deserved welsh Lions that i would prefer a non welsh captain but it is not my main reason against warburton. Far from it.

Nationality balance IS important in the Lions AND so is winning.

Therein lies the challenge.

reallybored wrote:If Warburton was Scottish would he be touring?

Yes, but he would also be drinking :-)

Triangulation wrote:Warburton on being squeaky clean

"We're hoping for another campaign where we're squeaky clean and can focus on rugby. As for me, I didn't even have a Buck's Fizz over Christmas! I'm not an alcohol fan so it was a pretty easy decision for me. If it tasted nice I might have to think twice about it.
"The most important thing is not to have alcohol because it increases your recovery and I think the players have been educated quite well when it comes to things like that.
"Most of the squad have made the same decision. We realise the benefits [of not drinking] and the potential risks of alcohol, which is why a lot of us stay away from it."

Don't worry Triangulation I saw him chugging on 2 bottles of champagne a few weeks ago - looked like he'd been in a desert for 12 hours

Nothing against the guy but I think we need a stronger captain.

A Lions Captain for me should be a nailed on player that plays even if their arm is falling off.

Tell it to me all you like. I'd have no issue supporting a Lions XV (or a Lions squad) without Scottish representation.

We all (should) want the best players on the pitch, regardless of nationality.

As it happens I do think there are 2-3 Scots who deserve to make the squad on this tour, and I'll be disappointed if they don't make it, but that will not stop me supporting the Lions. I even managed to support Sir Clive Woodward's circus in 2005!

the more I think about it the more it seems like Paul O'Connell is the obvious choice. Now fit again he's has to be a dead cert for the test team and he just commands respect.

Triangulation wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Triangulation wrote:4. He is welsh. The Lions should if possible have an Irish captain to balance things.

What???

Pretty obvious FES.

The squad is going to be heavily welsh. The head coach is head coach of wales. England are supplying 2 assistant coaches and one or two players.

SO to balance out the contribution of the 4 countries i'd have an Irish captain where possible and certainly not a welsh one. Just so happens that we have just the outstanding candidate in POC.

All of the above applies equally to the Scots of course but i couldnt find a Scottish captaincy candidate.

I hope that is clear now.

Yeah there's nobody who captains their Country and had an excellent 6N and covers the whole backrow to International standards and in is excellent European and Club form and plays at the only Lion-nation Club still capable of winning both their League and the HEC like Kelly Brown standing out

(i put a bet on Brown captaining the Lions nearly a year ago. Not a large one, but it looks like it could be quite a lucrative one!)

I doubt ladbrokes would suspend betting if they weren't confident of being 100% right.... they must have had a tip off... it wouldn't have been just through betting patterns.

Yes good now were getting there lads

We need a pro -bonding- responsible- drinking, non- scapegoating, leader who merits a place in the 1st XV and who wants to captain at any given opportunity. If he happens to be irish or scottish that is a bonus.

If he doesnt exist then i give up.

fa0019 wrote:the more I think about it the more it seems like Paul O'Connell is the obvious choice. Now fit again he's has to be a dead cert for the test team and he just commands respect.

I agree, it would also make Gatlands position stronger if he doesn't stick with Warburton as Captain.

Shame, wouldn't be my pick but best of luck to him if he has got it

Triangulation wrote:Yes good now were getting there lads

We need a pro -bonding- responsible- drinking, non- scapegoating, leader who merits a place in the 1st XV and who wants to captain at any given opportunity. If he happens to be irish or scottish that is a bonus.

If he doesnt exist then i give up.

It's the "merits a place in the 1st XV" bit that's problematic. I can't think of a single player guaranteed to start. Not in the same way that Johnson, BOD and POC were on the last four tours. Even POC was pretty shaky in fact on the last tour - Shaw and AWJ were arguably the form locks going into the 1st test.

VictorU3 wrote:

fa0019 wrote:the more I think about it the more it seems like Paul O'Connell is the obvious choice. Now fit again he's has to be a dead cert for the test team and he just commands respect.

I agree, it would also make Gatlands position stronger if he doesn't stick with Warburton as Captain.

I agree... if he choses Warburton it gives the tour a 'jobs for the boys' feel and it could be quite decisive esp. if a lot of the 50/50 calls also go the way of Wales both for the squad and the test team.