Replacing giants of the forest

Steve Hansen has stated bluntly that quite a few players in the NZ side are on the wrong side of 30. Richie McCaw is 32, Dan Carter 31, Keven Mealamu 34, Ali Williams 32, Ma'a Nonu 30, Tony Woodcock 32, Corey Jane 30, Andrew Hore 34, Piri Weepu 29 and Conrad Smith 31.

3 years is a long way off for these men for whom rugby has taken up a great chunk of their lives. For some it's going to be a case of taking it year by year. For others like Woodcock and Hore, it's undoubtedly ambitious to have any hope of playing in 2015. So three years is a long time to bring on new talent but too far to get rid of the core group of experienced players. You have to get the balance right.

Last year saw quite a few players integrated into the mix due to injury or other players moving away. We saw Romano, Retallick, Aaron Smith, Barrett blooded and a few players like Messam, Vito and Crockett return to the fray. This year will probably see TJ Perenara introduced into the mix and the June tests probably won't see McCaw play (though there are rumours floating around that he might yet come back for the Crusaders). Jane is out injured so there is an opportunity for Rene Ranger to come back to test rugby. What is less clear is who is going to replace that experience in the back? There doesn't appear to be as many clear options in the front row and players like Kieran Read have yet to sign contracts for 2015. This to me is the problematic area for Hansen and his long term strategy has to be tempered with the short term exigency of winning games. How do you introduce new players into the heat of forward battle? You don't want a player's introduction to test rugby to be a humiliating one but you want to give them enough time to grow into their roles and learn from the senior players around them.

So it's going to be intriguing to see how Hansen approaches this year in terms of selection. He introduced a lot of new players last year and still managed to win a lot of games. The performances weren't so convincing for many of those wins and SA and Australia will come back stronger from last year with their horror run of injuries. So to the Kiwi fans, who do you think is putting their hand up for selection in terms of replacing these senior players and what are your predictions for 2015 in terms of the starting team? Will players such as SBW and Kaino be in the mix again and do any of these senior players like Carter and McCaw (playing at 6 perhaps?) have a chance of appearing in 2015?

Lets face it whoever they bring in will be brilliant (unfortunately for the rest of us)

I like your spirit Dave but I don't think it's as easy as that particularly in the front row.

Saw that kia. Smart thing theyre talking about this now. makes sense. For me form, in NZ, is everything and will ultimately decide each players fate.

Id be surprised if DC or McCaw are there and this time off must be surreal for McCaw having been entrenched in the game for at least ten years.

Conrad Smith is my biggest concern.
It takes years to establish a strong and reliable centre-look at the ages of Stanley, Bunce, Umaga and now Smith. Weve basically had four in the world cup era. So unless its an injury free Kahui we dont have time to replace the calibre of Smith and we know how our feeble attempts at putting fullbacks there have gone.

I would be concerned about DC but he didnt figure strongly in any WCup he was at anyway so at least we'll know earlier this time. The rest I'm not too concerned. I'd like to see McCaw for sentimental reasons. Two wins as captain will put him next to Zeus I'm sure.

What about the front row T man. I agree Smith is a worry and his contribution is undervalued. But don't see many options for the front row coming through. Who do you think might be there in 2015?

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I like your spirit Dave but I don't think it's as easy as that particularly in the front row.

Two years is a long time Kia - expect it to be sorted before the next WC even if there is no obvious talent there now.

The All Blacks arealways brilliant, but the players mentioned on this thread was (and still is) part of agolden generation for the All Blacks, it will be hard to replicate that talent.

Agree Biltong but they always seem to manage it

Whilst there is a conveyor belt of talent, often you seem the same suitcases popping up each time it does a revolution. We tend to fill certain positions easier than others but often we struggle to fill certain key positions.

The general team make up is always there or thereabouts but some vintages are more balanced than others (let's see how many mixed metaphors can go in this post!). You have your good years and then your very good years. It's a difficult balance to incorporate fresh faces and maintain experience across the park in key areas. Right now we have a relatively new locking partnership and face a new front row in the distant future. Take out Richie McCaw from the backrow and you take out not only a vital member of the pack but also an incredible leader. It's foolhardy to think you can take out so many caps and think you'll replace them with something comparable. What you have to do is make up for your loss by excelling in other areas. Maximise your stregnths and minimise your weaknesses.

I still want to see the King at 6. With Cane, Ardie Savea et al I feel we have more chance of filling the openside position with quality than blindside. Kaino will come back but may be past his prime.

Crockett is the obvious successor to Woodcock but he is still in danger of being pinged out of games depending on a referee's interpretation of his technique. This makes him a potential liability.

Kahui going cheeses me off. I'd start Ben Smith at 13 at Super level to get him more acclimatised to the role. Even 12 is a worry with Nonu not getting any younger.

I reckon our pack will have a greenish tinge soon and this will be exploited in the next couple of years-could be a baptism of fire for some. But people age so it has to happen and I'd rather get it out of the way now so that our options for 2015 know exactly how hard test rugby is. I felt we punched above our weight last year results wise and benefited from Aussie and Bok injuries, and are in real danger of losing some silverware this year. Hooker is huge for us with both Hore and Mealamu older. Hansen IMO has to drop one for Coles-you need to blood him and there's no chance of that happening with both of them there.

I'd keep Carter as long as possible as he is very possibly the best 10 ever to play the game and has unfinished business which secures his motivation. Barrett covers 15 too so we can get away with those two and Cruden in the squad. All offer different threats and things the others can learn-even DC.

Of the players listed I'd say Woodcock, Mealamu and Hore are the ones who almost definitely won't make it due to age. Ali Williams I'd predict would have been ousted from the side by then anyway.

That leaves McCaw, Weepu, Carter and Smith as question marks. From those I'd say Carter due to his injury in RWC 11 and McCaw due to his standing in the game and how he's being looked after by the NZRU are the more likely to make it. Now Smith is starting at 9 I wouldn't be surprised if Piri looked abroad for a couple of years (who wouldn't after what he's achieved). The snake is a harder one to predict as his game relies hugely on how clever a footballer he is, a slight loss of pace may not hurt him as it would others - especially as he looks after himself well and stays match fit most the time.

1.Crockett
2.Coles
3.Franks or Afoa if he returns
4.Retallik
5.Whitelock
6.Messam or Kaino
7.Cane or Savea
8.Read

9.Smith
10.Cruden

11.Savea
12.Nonu or SBW
13.Kahui
14.Jane
15.Dagg

Even if you take a scenario where all of Woodcock, Mealamu, Hore, Williams, McCaw, Weepu, Carter and Smith aren't there (unlikely IMO) it's clear the quality is there to replace them as you'd expect from the All Blacks. The important thing will be how the new guys are brought in and when they are - at that point when Cane or Savea for instance come into the back row to replace Richie then players such as Read will need to up their game to an even higher level to allow those guys a chance to settle in. That's where I feel NZ will be OK, as you're already building a very strong core of players who should be there in 2015 that can hopefully support the youngsters when they make the step up.

At the next World cup, Steve Luatua wil be the All Black Number 6.

(You read it here first).

Just read an article on stuff where they said a few disturbing things. (Savea has been charged with assault in terms of domestic violence) Rene Ranger apparently has committed to Montpellier so who replaces Jane. Could Halai be a bolter and we have two similar wingers?

Smith is considering taking time off in the middle of the year instead of the end of year which leaves Ben Smith as the best option in the short term. All the others don't strike much confidence.

Luata was tipped in that article Laurie and Ben Afeaki as prop. I think it's going to take another few bolters and I hope the journo is not right when he says Hansen will only choose two halfbacks meaning TJ Perenara will not get a chance. That's crazy talk if he goes with Smith and Weepu.

With regards to replacing any of the players that you have listed above, i dont think it will be that big of a problem for NZ really. They always seem to have a conveyor belt of Talent ready to take the next step.

Dispite the fact that some of the greatist players that have ever played the game for any country NZ especialy. Yes they will be missed by most rugby fans from across all countrys. But NZ will soon recover and move on.

aucklandlaurie wrote:
At the next World cup, Steve Luatua wil be the All Black Number 6.

(You read it here first).

I think I said that last week after the Blues beat the Canes again

I think there are young props coming through like and Franks is still young, Locks are okay, Loosies are okay, half back and first fives will be alright wings and full back are probably covered. So the real problem area is 12 and 13.
Wouldn't be suprised to see a SBW/Kahui combo in 2015.

So it will look something like
1Toomanga Allen
2Matuu
3Franks
4Whitelock
5Romano
6Kaino
7Savea
8Read (c)
9Perenara
10Barrett
11Savea
12Williams
13Kahui
14Piutau
15Dagg

16Afeaki
17Franks
18Coles
19Retalick
20Vito
21Smith
22Cruden
23Saili

Like that?

Matuu has provided the most biggest hits I have seen from one player so worth a look on that basis.
Kia I have no idea about the propping scene. For that one I rely purely on the conveyer belt theory and the fact that we never have weak props. Afeaki looks to have raves. Elsewhere Ardie seems to be one of those names that seems destined for greatness. At 19 heard the same sorts of raves from Jones, JK and Lomu. The X factor seems to hover over that one.

But I agree two years is a long time and 12 new ABs last year and several more this year we probably arent even discussing some players that will be there in 2015. And its not just our playing stocks. Our coaching setup at the test level is still streets ahead of anyone at the moment and we continue to have an advantage there, the ability to select the right players as good as its ever been.

Matuu is really working hard all around the park an is being held back by Coles starting. So it will be interesting to see how much he can improve in the next couple of weeks with Coles out.

I'm still not a fan of Hansen and predict an average year again. That is lots of wins but some of them not good wins and can imagine losing 1 game to Aus this year and so not retaining the RC cup thing.

Surely this is the thing that NZ are the best in the World at...just continuing winning the short term games...whilst continuously introducing new youngsters in when required...rather than ever having a radical over haul...

GeordieFalcon wrote:Surely this is the thing that NZ are the best in the World at...just continuing winning the short term games...whilst continuously introducing new youngsters in when required...rather than ever having a radical over haul...

Lot of truth in that. Last year was a fairly big overhaul for NZ with many players and leadership group leaving. We introduced 12 new AB's- mostly successfully, and still only lost one, winning the major trophies on offer. We won't blood 12 new this year but I think we'll do at least half that- TJ Perenara, Afeaki, Luatua, Piatau almost certainty's to be capped this year at some point.

NZ's strength is the environment of the AB's. Once there in there its all encompassing, the tradition, the organisation, player management etc- easily the best in rugby today and thats illustrated by the difference between what happens at sxv and AB level. Closely fought sxv's arent reflected so much at test level. SA in particular lose their way in transition and get some basics such as gameplan, selection, and most of all direction a bit wrong. I'd say we increase on sxv level around 40-50% whereas SA probably about 10-20% better than their best sxv side.

Oz probably the same for different reasons- quality players available and (in my opinion) a stunted coach in Deans, though they do well with what they have.