Can the Lions learn from SA's fortunes last year in the RC?

I don't think it's a great leap to compare the Lions and South Africa. A big pack, technically sound who pride themselves on the set piece. A good kicking game and pace out wide with robust centres. A love of the physical aspects of the game. All these things are great attributes to have in rugby. But there should be a note of caution. Australia in recent times has the best record against South Africa. Even better than NZ. It's an astonishing strike rate against a team that seems on paper far superior up front.

Gatland has gone for a squad that is big in size and technical skill in the forwards and power and pace in the backs. But I think it should be compulsory viewing for Gatland the matches Australia played against South Africa last year in the RC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYGfuB4FDt8 and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VgbMBkYfzg.

South Africa played Australia at home first up last year. Both sides were riddled with injuries last year but the lessons are there to be learned. SA started very well in the first game but Australia came back strong in the second half and SA had no answer. Australia had their home games first up and a match against NZ at Sydney to prepare them whereas SA played Argentina at home. There seemed a clear gameplan though with Meyer and at this stage Morné Steyn was still playing.

In the second match, SA were at home but their tactics had changed. After the game they should never have lost in Dunedin where SA had clear ascendancy in the pack and needlessly kicked possession away time and time again, the tipping point was reached with Steyn. Goosen was called in and there was a clear change in tactics. SA kept the ball in hand far more and played with more width than the first test match.

These are isolated matches but I think there are lessons to be learned. Australia are not going to be bullied up front. They can punch above their weight in the set piece. Kicking the ball away has to be done sparingly and done well. You don't want to present opportunities to this Aussie back line. Running is their natural game and they're quite happy to see the ball kicked back to them and they're very good at summing up their options. So kick for the corners or kick for places where you can compete in the air or chase well by all means and close them down. But for the love of all that is good do not kick front foot ball away. Keep the ball in hand as much as possible and ask questions of the Aussie defence. And ask probing questions of them. Not telegraphed questions provided with crib sheets where they don't have to think much about the answers.

Link the forward play with the backs. Find your key men who can either carry the ball up or link up with those around them. It doesn't have to be complicated but something more varied and looking for the offload when it's on to get the ball wide into space. These things will tire the Aussie defence and holes will appear. We're not asking for Fijian expressionist rugby or NZ offloading from forwards and backs alike. But SA showed what a little variety can do whilst still using your traditional strengths. Going in with the attitude we're going to cream you up the middle and churn you into butter in the set piece is foolhardy. You have to be more unpredictable than that.

SA showed that they learned from their mistakes in the first test and changed their gameplan accordingly. The Lions will learn very little from their warm up games in terms of the opposition. They have three tests but it's vital that they don't go in to each match with the same game plan. The Aussies will be prepared and they'll know what's coming from them in terms of the squad the Lions have announced. So do the unpredictable and go for something a little more refined. It doesn't have to be a huge departure but if you play with a little variation and not to type, you'll go a long way to unsettling the Wallabies. Do what they think you're going to do and it'll be tough work as SA found out. Mix it up a little and still play to the strengths you have. That is after all the game plan of Australia normally.

Not sure why this hasn't been commented on as its been something I've often said on here and I think its a very valid point.

SA plays a very similar game to Wales especially and they always struggle vs. AUS especially away with only 4 victories in 24 matches since re-introduction 20 odd years ago.

SA can throw the ball about. Their try average rate per match is healthy and the backs get their fair share of those. More so then this lions side, they also have a stronger pack generally speaking and better loose forwards at competing on the floor.

However it doesn't matter what people who know the SH game on here say. People still look back at the odd match and cite how AUS fell, but in their own back yard, over 3 matches, it won't happen.

I would put NZ and SA's pack above most in world rugby, if they don't destroy AUS up front, we won't either.

Ireland probably have the best team to compete with AUS as they with Sexton blend a good pack with a mix of tactical kicking and smart running in the backs.
I think with Sexton, BOD and Bowe/Maitland in the side it can be a good mix in the backs... the blend could be quite something.

It really depends on how Gatland approaches the series. You would hope he would take this approach rather than his tried and tested general failure of 1 win in 21 vs. the SH 3N sides during his tenure where he has shunned a balanced approach for smashing the doors down with a <5% success rate (with high quality players).

I think he's smart though, he's quite a crafty fellow and I think he has a lot going for him but when Wales faces the SH it always worries me that they have approached them in the same manner, never changed after the constant beatings. Some may cite... the points margins but a loss is a loss and 1/21 is not due to those small margins of winning and losing... its comprehensive failure of strategy and lack of true quality compared to the opposition.